Which of these changes to an ecosystem is most likely caused by a tornado?

Branches are broken off of trees

A tornado watch is more severe than a warning. Which of these describes a tornado watch?

When a tornado has been spotted in your area

When tornadoes are possible in your area

A device that tells you what time a tornado is going to strike

When you get your binoculars out and look for a funnel cloud

Why don't hurricanes form in polar regions?

There is no water in polar regions

Hurricane season is from June-November, why is this typically when hurricanes form?

The water is warm enough for hurricanes to form.

They just happen whenever throughout the year

If a severe drought occurs in the area pictured above, which organisms in the ecosystem would be affected?

All the plants and animals, because they all depend on the water.

All the animals except the birds, because the birds live in the air.

Only the fish, because they live in the water

All the animals, because they drink water

Catastrophic Events

What are catastrophic events?. Recognize the consequences of the losses of biodiversity due to catastrophic events, climate changes, human activity, and the introduction of invasive, non-native species.

Succession, Weathering, Catastrophic Events, Water

Make a multiple choice quiz for my year 8 science students based on the science in this transcript from a video: 3°C 0:04 It can be the difference between snow and sleet 0:08 Wearing a jacket or not 0:11 In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant 0:15 But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic 0:20 Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 0:25 3°C of warming is really disastrous 0:28 The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there 0:32 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C 0:40 This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with 0:46 Children born today... 0:47 ...are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents 0:52 If global temperatures do rise by 3°C... 0:55 ...what would their world look like? Climate change is already having devastating effects 1:03 Rising sea levels 1:05 Desertification 1:07 Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world 1:11 While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction... 1:14 ...this film will show the scenario we all face... 1:17 ...unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels 1:30 In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear 1:35 The slums of Bangladesh’s capital are filling up with climate migrants 1:41 Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh 1:46 There, like many other parts of the country... 1:49 ...rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers... 1:53 ...are washing away people’s homes 1:56 Many, like her, have lost everything 2:00 Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land 2:03 There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house 2:08 There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home 2:12 We used to eat the fruit from our own trees 2:18 I can’t eat them now because they don't exist anymore 2:21 Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka 2:26 Life was much better back home 2:29 It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable 2:33 We didn’t have the time to save anything at all 2:38 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minara’s life 2:45 It’s one of the reasons why so many migrants like her... 2:47 ...are moving to the city each year... 2:50 ...nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate 2:53 And climate models show there could be much worse to come How climate modelling works 3:02 Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj... 3:04 ...has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios... 3:08 ...for the United Nations 3:10 The models we use to carry out this exercise... 3:13 ...really represent the state of the art... 3:15 ...of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading 3:19 Joeri’s projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world 3:26 Here this is the 3°C level... 3:28 ...and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies... 3:32 ...we would hit 3°C by the end of the century 3:36 This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at 3:40 Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept 3:44 The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept... 3:47 ...and net-zero targets are met 3:50 Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century... 3:54 ...there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead 3:59 One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance... 4:03 ...that the plane will crash Nowhere is safe from global warming 4:07 A rise of 3°C would affect everyone 4:10 Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldn’t be immune to the consequences 4:15 European capitals like Paris and Berlin... 4:18 ...would bake under more extreme heatwaves 4:22 Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate 4:27 In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events 4:33 Cities are hotter than the places around them... 4:36 ...they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding 4:39 And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you can’t in the countryside 4:46 And because of their denser populations... 4:49 ...disasters in a city affect far more people 4:52 Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming 4:56 But they have the means to adapt 4:59 Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places 5:03 They have a lot of amenities 5:05 A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world... 5:08 …wouldn’t necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world 5:12 But a city that hasn’t prepared for these sort of eventualities... 5:16 ...that might be a really nasty place The impact of prolonged droughts 5:20 So far, many developed cities have got off lightly... 5:24 ...but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately 5:29 Smallholders—small-scale farmers—are particularly vulnerable to climate change 5:35 And there are over 600 million around the world 5:38 Smallholders with farms under two hectares... 5:40 ...produce around a third of the global food supply 5:46 Central America’s “Dry Corridor”... 5:48 ...supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms 5:53 Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea... 5:56 ...the area is prone to droughts 6:08 Israel Ramírez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala 6:12 Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe 6:18 This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver 6:23 He depends on his crops of corn and beans 6:26 But they’re getting harder to grow 6:30 The surrounding mountains... 6:32 ...used to provide us with native food... 6:38 ...and now that isn’t an option anymore... 6:41 ...due to climate change and its effects 6:46 Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty 6:52 The impact of all of this for us... 6:59 ...malnutrition among children 7:03 We’ve lost a few 7:07 For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before 7:16 The plant dries up and can’t provide us... 7:19 ...with the necessary food provision 7:24 Severe droughts in Central America... 7:26 ...are now four times more likely than they were last century 7:30 Many families from here have gone to the States 7:37 The economic despair and debts... 7:44 ...have pushed many people from this community to do this journey 7:53 Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 7:59 Not all of this has been due to climate change 8:02 But longer droughts would force even more to move 8:05 In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region... 8:09 ...could drop by up to 14% 8:12 At 3°C, over a quarter of the world’s population... 8:16 ...could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year 8:19 Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding 8:24 But for some, too much water will be the problem 8:29 10% of the world’s population lives on a coastline... 8:32 ...that’s less than 10 metres above sea level 8:35 For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster 8:40 By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels 8:46 Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable... 8:49 ...with up to up to a third of the population displaced 8:54 And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives 9:04 You can see the graveyard there, it’s all under water now... 9:08 ...due to this rising sea level and climate change 9:15 The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea 9:19 Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear 9:24 Relatives’ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water 9:29 We have been asked by the government to relocate... 9:32 ...but no one wants to relocate... 9:34 ...because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea 9:39 This is the place we’ve been brought up in 9:41 ...it’s not easy to leave 9:44 Past attempts to build a seawall haven’t worked 9:48 But Barney sees building a new one as the village’s only hope 9:52 If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left 9:56 But if we don’t have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come... 10:01 ...maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded 10:05 Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods 10:11 And many more countries could suffer 10:14 The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries... 10:17 ...that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world 10:21 To escape, many will move… 10:24 …often, to urban areas Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures 10:27 Half the world’s population already lives in cities... 10:31 ...almost a third in slums 10:36 For them, a 3°C world could be deadly 10:40 Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change 10:44 But life could get even worse for her 10:47 I’m struggling a lot nowadays 10:49 The heat during the day is unbearable 10:52 Even late at night it doesn’t cool down 10:57 The heat is getting more intense every day 10:59 I mean, it’s going to get much worse 11:03 I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? 11:08 Dhaka is getting hotter 11:11 In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature... 11:13 ...has crept up by nearly half a degree 11:17 Days that approach 40°C are now being reported 11:20 And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise 11:26 A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity 11:30 Humans cool themselves by sweating… 11:32 But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%... 11:36 ...sweat doesn’t evaporate well 11:38 So people can’t cool down… 11:41 ...even if given unlimited shade and water 11:45 At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body can’t lose heat... 11:49 ...and so it gets hotter and hotter... 11:51 ...and the body is designed to work at a given temperature 11:53 And if it gets too hot inside, you will die 11:58 The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C... 12:02 ...around skin temperature 12:04 Dhaka will have a much higher chance... 12:05 ...of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures... 12:07 ...if global warming reaches 3°C 12:12 You can’t really adapt to that 12:14 You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you can’t work... 12:20 ...can’t do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year... 12:25 ...then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy 12:33 Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates... 12:37 ...have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures 12:40 More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf... 12:43 ...as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States... 12:47 ...could all get to this threshold by the end of the century 12:50 Climate modelling might show us the weather Increased migration and conflict 12:52 But it doesn’t show us its other effects on society 12:56 Established migration patterns could change 12:59 Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders 13:03 Within countries, more people will move to cities 13:07 In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year... 13:10 ...could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change 13:15 When people are displaced by climate... 13:18 …they may well go to cities... 13:19 ...because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already 13:25 A lot of people who can get to the developed world... 13:28 ...not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go 13:35 As migration around the world increases... 13:38 ...there could be more competition for fewer resources 13:42 Water—already a highly contested resource—will be a focal point 13:47 Turkey’s new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq 13:53 China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan 13:57 The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy 14:03 How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions... 14:08 ...in a 3°C world... 14:09 ...is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out 14:14 I think you’d have to be incredibly sanguine... 14:16 ...not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about... 14:19 ...in a 3°C world wouldn’t lead some places... 14:22 ...to the brink of societal collapse 14:25 Those lucky enough to escape unrest... Adaptation and mitigation are crucial 14:28 ...would still have to adapt to a radically different world 14:32 People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones... 14:37 ...is air conditioning 14:39 But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level... 14:42 ...I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture 14:47 There are physical things you can do, like seawalls 14:52 The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering... 14:57 ...doesn’t mean that it will eliminate suffering 15:00 Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet 15:06 Adaptation will only get the world so far 15:09 The best way to deal with a 3°C world... 15:12 ...is not to go to a 3°C world 15:14 And that’s why increasing efforts on mitigation are important 15:17 It’s why working towards negative emissions... 15:20 ...that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important 15:25 Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble 15:33 The scale of change needed... 15:35 ...and the slow progress of governments so far... 15:38 ...means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done 15:44 Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions... 15:48 ...are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 15:54 The need to act has never been clearer 15:57 There’s still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction... 16:02 ...rather than becoming fact

Reading Passage: The Anatomy of a Kill Chain In the lexicon of modern warfare, the term "kill chain" describes the end-to-end process of a military attack, from the initial identification of a target to its eventual destruction and the subsequent evaluation of the strike's effectiveness. Conceptually, the kill chain is a structural model used to understand and optimize the speed and precision of military operations. The fundamental principle of this model is that an attack functions as a sequence of interdependent stages; if any single link in the chain is broken, the entire operation fails. For strategic planners, this creates a dual objective: to accelerate one's own kill chain while simultaneously finding ways to disrupt the adversary's. Strategic Concept: The Kinetic Model (F2T2EA) The traditional military kill chain is often summarized by the acronym F2T2EA, representing a continuous cycle of find, fix, track, target, engage, and assess. The kinetic kill chain begins with Find, the reconnaissance phase where intelligence assets identify a potential target within a theater of operations. Once found, the process moves to Fix, which involves pinning down the target's specific location and ensuring it can be distinguished from friendly forces or non-combatants. Track follows, maintaining a persistent watch on the target's movements to prevent its escape. In the Target phase, commanders select the appropriate weapon system and verify the legality and strategic value of the strike. Engage is the kinetic moment—the actual deployment of ordnance against the objective. Finally, Assess involves battle damage assessment (BDA) to determine if the desired effects were achieved or if further engagement is required. This model emphasizes "compressing the sensor-to-shooter timeline," meaning the faster a military can move through these steps, the more lethal it becomes. The Evolution: The Cyber Kill Chain® As warfare expanded into the digital domain, Lockheed Martin adapted the kinetic model into the Cyber Kill Chain. This framework assists defenders in identifying and stopping Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs). Unlike a physical missile, a cyberattack often unfolds over weeks or months, but the sequential logic remains the same. The model consists of seven distinct stages: Stage Description of Attacker Activity 1. Reconnaissance The harvesting of information. Attackers research targets via social media, public records, and technical scanning to find vulnerabilities. 2. Weaponization Coupling a remote access trojan with an exploit into a deliverable payload (e.g., a malicious PDF or Microsoft Office document). 3. Delivery Transmission of the weapon to the target environment. Common vectors include email attachments, malicious websites, or USB drives. 4. Exploitation The weapon triggers. The code executes on the victim's system, typically by taking advantage of a software or operating system vulnerability. 5. Installation The attacker installs a persistent backdoor or malware on the victim's system, allowing them to maintain access even after a reboot. 6. Command & Control (C2) The compromised system opens a communication channel back to the attacker's server, allowing the intruder to give manual instructions. 7. Actions on Objective The final stage where the attacker achieves their goal, such as data exfiltration, encryption for ransom, or destruction of critical infrastructure. Strategic Implications for Defense The strategic value of the Cyber Kill Chain lies in its ability to provide a roadmap for "proactive defense." By understanding the sequence, security professionals can implement controls at every stage. For instance, robust email filtering can break the chain at the Delivery stage, while endpoint detection can stop the Installation phase. Crucially, the earlier a defender breaks the chain, the lower the cost of mitigation and the lower the risk of damage. If an attacker is stopped during Reconnaissance, they have gained nothing. If they are stopped during Actions on Objective, the damage may already be catastrophic. In both kinetic and cyber environments, the goal is the same: to create a "defensive depth" that makes the cost of a successful attack prohibitively high for the adversary.

Anthropocentrism views nature as having intrinsic value regardless of whether it serves human needs. Commercial aquaculture accounts for 75% of local water pollution in the Taal Lake ecosystem. Biocentrism asserts that all living organisms, including humans and endemic species like the Tawilis, possess equal intrinsic rights to safe waters. Household greywater, agricultural run-offs, and community solid waste combined make up 75% of local pollution in Talisay. Massive amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus released into the water column trigger rapid algal growth that leads to catastrophic fish kills. Prudence (Katalinuhan) is defined as reacting impulsively to immediate needs without considering long-term consequences. Ecocentrism views the entire ecological system as an interconnected whole where maintaining overall balance is necessary for survival. Frugality (Katipiran) encourages individuals to prioritize status and luxury spending over utility and necessity. Unconsumed commercial fish feed sinks to the bottom and decays, contributing significantly to oxygen depletion in the lake. Understanding that plastic thrown into drainage creeks today will clog lake resources tomorrow is an application of prudence. In the "Cosmos in Our Bakuran" framework, physical clutter in one's immediate surroundings reflects an internal state of harmony. Practicing frugality helps protect local waterways by reducing unnecessary purchases and minimizing household waste generation. The Tawilis is an introduced species brought to Taal Lake specifically to consume excess aquaculture feeds. Foresight is the key aspect of prudence that involves evaluating how current actions affect future conditions. Both commercial aquaculture and domestic greywater contribute to nutrient pollution in aquatic ecosystems.

There are two numbers you need to know about climate change. The first is 51 billion. The other is zero. Fifty-one billion is how many tons of greenhouse gases the world typically adds to the atmosphere every year. This is where we are today. Zero is what we need to aim for. To stop the warming and avoid the worst effects of climate change, humans need to stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. This sounds difficult, because it will be. Every country will need to change its ways. Virtually every activity in modern life – growing things, making things, getting around from place to place – involves releasing greenhouse gases, and as time goes on, more people will be living this modern lifestyle. That’s good, because it means their lives are getting better. Yet if nothing else changes, the world will keep producing greenhouse gases, climate change will keep getting worse, and the impact on humans will be catastrophic. But “if nothing else changes” is a big If. I believe that things can change. We already have some of the tools we need, and as for those we don’t yet have, we can not only invent, but also deploy them, and, if we act fast enough, avoid a climate catastrophe. Two decades ago, I would never have predicted that one day I would be talking in public about climate change. My background is in software, not climate science. Things changed for me when I met with two former Microsoft colleagues who were starting non-profits focused on energy and climate. They brought along two climate experts who were well versed in the issues, and the four of them showed me the data connecting greenhouse gas emissions to climate change. I kept learning everything I could about climate and energy, agriculture, oceans, sea levels, glaciers, power lines, and more. One thing that became clear to me was that our current sources of renewable energy – wind and solar, mostly – could make a big dent in the problem, but we weren’t doing enough to deploy them. It also became clear why, on their own, they aren’t enough to get us all the way to zero. The wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine. Within a few years, I had become convinced of three things: 1. To avoid a climate disaster, we have to get to zero. 2. We need to deploy the tools we already have, like solar and wind, faster and smarter. 3. We need to create breakthrough technologies that can take us the rest of the way.

Apostrophe Catastrophe

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