A poll of 2017 likely voters indicated that 70% would vote in favor of a proposed constitutional amendment. The margin of error for this poll was 2%. What confidence level did the pollsters use?

Not enough information is given.

In a survey of 1,000 television viewers, 40% said they watch network news programs. For a 99% confidence level, the margin of error for this estimate is 3.99%. If we only want to be 95% confident, how will the margin of error change?

Since less confidence allows a narrower interval, the margin of error will be smaller.

Since less confidence allows a wider interval, the margin of error will be smaller.

There is not enough information to determine the effect on the margin of error.

Since less confidence allows a wider interval, the margin of error will be larger.

The county health department has concerns about the chlorine level of 0.4% mg/mL at a local water park increasing to unsafe level. The water department tests the hypothesis that the local water park's chlorine proportions have remained the same, and find a P-value of 0.005. Provide an appropriate conclusion

There's only a 0.5% chance of seeing no change in the chlorine proportion in the results we observed from natural sampling variation. We conclude the chlorine proportion is higher.

We can say there is a 0.5% chance of seeing a change in the chlorine proportions in the results we observed from natural sampling variation. We conclude the chlorine proportion is higher.

There is a 0.5% chance of no change in the chlorine proportion.

We can say there is a 0.5% chance of seeing no change in the chlorine proportions in the results we observed from natural sampling variation. There is no evidence of a higher chlorine proportion, but we cannot conclude the chlorine proportion is the same.

The federal guideline for smog is 12% pollutants per 10,000 volume of air. A metropolitan city is trying to bring its smog level into federal guidelines. An independent agency, hired by the city, runs its tests and comes up with a P-value of 0.055. What is reasonable to conclude about the new strategy using α = 0.025?

We can say there is a 5.5% chance of seeing the new policy having no effect on smog in the results we observed from natural sampling variation. There is no evidence the new policy is more effective, but we cannot conclude the policy has no effect on smog.

There is a 94.5% chance of the new policy having no effect on smog.

There's only a 5.5% chance of seeing the new policy having no effect on smog in the results we observed from natural sampling variation. We conclude the new policy is more effective.

There is a 5.5% chance of the new policy having no effect on smog.

A psychologist claims that more than 1.4% of the population suffers from professional problems due to extreme shyness. Identify the Type II error in this context.

The error of failing to reject the claim that the true proportion is at most 1.4% when it is actually more than 1.4%.

The error of rejecting the claim that the true proportion is more than 1.4% when it really is more than 1.4%.

The error of accepting the claim that the true proportion is more than 1.4% when it really is more than 1.4%.

The error of failing to accept the claim that the true proportion is at most 1.4% when it is actually more than 1.4%.

The Island Creamery wants to compare men and women in terms of preference for eating their ice cream out of a cone. They take a sample of 400 customers (140 men and 260 women) and ask if they prefer cones over bowls. They found that 74 men preferred cones and 120 women preferred cones. What is the null and alternative hypothesis?

$H_0$:$p_1-p_2=0$ , $H_A :p_1-p_2$ ≠ $0$

$H_0$:$p_1-p_2=.07$ , $H_A :p_1-p_2$ ≠ $0$

$H_0$:$p_1-p_2=.07$ , $H_A :p_1-p_2$ ≠ $.07$

$H_0$:$p_1-p_2=0$ , $H_A :p_1-p_2$ ≠ $.07$

Based on past experience, a bank believes that 7% of the people who receive loans will not make payments on time. The bank has recently approved 300 loans. They want to find the probabilty that over 8% do not make payments on time. What is the expected number of successes and failures?

successes = 21 people, failures = 279 people

successes = .08, failures = .92

successes = .07, failures = .93

successes = 24 people, failures = 276 people

A two-sample z-test for two population proportions is to be performed using the P-value approach. The null hypothesis is H0: p1= p2 and the alternative is Ha: p1 ≠ p2. Use the given sample data to find the P-value for the hypothesis test. Give an interpretation of the p-value. n1 = 200, n2 = 100, x1 = 11, x2 = 8

P-value = 0.402; If there is no difference in the proportions, there is about a 40.2% chance of seeing the observed difference or larger by natural sampling variation.

P-value = 0.0201; If there is no difference in the proportions, there is about a 2.01% chance of seeing the observed difference or larger by natural sampling variation.

P-value = 0.1011; There is about a 10.11% chance that the two proportions are equal.

P-value = 0.0201; There is about a 2.01% chance that the two proportions are equal

Chapter 19 to 22 MC AP Stat part 2

Chapter 19 to 22 MC AP Stat part 1

Hi, I'm John Green, this is Crash Course U.S. History, and today, we're going to talk about slavery, which is not funny. 0:06 Yeah, so we put a lei on the eagle to try and cheer you up, but let's face it, this is going to be depressing. 0:10 With slavery, every time you think, like, "Aw, it couldn't have been that bad," it turns out to have been much worse. 0:14 Mr. Green, Mr. Green! But what about – 0:15 Yeah, Me from the Past, I'm going to stop you right there, because you're going to embarrass yourself. Slavery was hugely important to America. 0:20 I mean, it led to a civil war and it also lasted what, at least in U.S. history, counts as a long-ass time, from 1619 to 1865. 0:29 And yes, I know there's a 1200-year-old church in your neighborhood in Denmark, but we're not talking about Denmark! 0:35 But slavery is most important because we still struggle with its legacy. 0:38 So, yes, today's episode will probably not be funny, but it will be important. 0:42 [Theme Music] North & South economic ties 0:51 So the slave-based economy in the South is sometimes characterized as having been separate from the Market Revolution, but that's not really the case. 0:57 Without southern cotton, the North wouldn't have been able to industrialize, at least not as quickly, because cotton textiles were one of the first industrially products. 1:04 And the most important commodity in world trade by the nineteenth century, and 3/4 of the world's cotton came from the American South. 1:11 And speaking of cotton, why has no one mentioned to me that my collar has been half popped this entire episode, like I'm trying to recreate the Flying Nun's hat. 1:18 And although there were increasingly fewer slaves in the North as northern states outlawed slavery, cotton shipments overseas made northern merchants rich. 1:26 Northern bankers financed the purchase of land for plantations. 1:29 Northern insurance companies insured slaves who were, after all, considered property, and very valuable property. 1:35 And in addition to turning cotton into cloth for sale overseas, northern manufacturers sold cloth back to the South, where it was used to clothe the very slaves who had cultivated it. 1:45 But certainly the most prominent effects of the slave-based economy were seen in the South. Slave-based agriculture in the South 1:49 The profitability of slaved-based agriculture, especially King Cotton, meant that the South would remain largely agricultural and rural. 1:56 Slave states were home to a few cities, like St. Louis and Baltimore, but with the exception of New Orleans, 2:00 almost all southern urbanization took place in the upper South, further away from the large cotton plantations. 2:06 And slave-based agriculture was so profitable that it siphoned money away from other economic endeavors. 2:11 Like, there was very little industry in the South. 2:13 It produced only 10% of the nation's manufactured goods. 2:16 And, as most of the capital was being plowed into the purchase of slaves, there was very little room for technological innovation, like, for instance, railroads. 2:23 This lack of industry and railroads would eventually make the South suck at the Civil War, thankfully. 2:27 In short, slavery dominated the South, shaping it both economically and culturally, and slavery wasn't a minor aspect of American society. Popular attitudes concerning slavery 2:35 By 1860, there were four million slaves in the U.S., and in the South, they made up one third of the total population. 2:42 Although in the popular imagination, most plantations were these sprawling affairs with hundreds of slaves, 2:47 in reality, the majority of slaveholders owned five or fewer slaves. 2:51 And, of course, most white people in the South owned no slaves at all, though, if they could afford to, they would sometimes rent slaves to help with their work. 2:57 These were the so-called yeoman farmers who lived self-sufficiently, raised their own food, and purchased very little in the Market Economy. 3:04 They worked the poorest land and, as a result, were mostly pretty poor themselves. 3:08 But even they largely supported slavery, partly, perhaps, for aspirational reasons, and partly because the racism inherent to the system gave even the poorest whites legal and social status. 3:18 And southern intellectuals worked hard to encourage these ideas of white solidarity and to make the case for slavery. 3:23 Many of the founders, a bunch of whom you'll remember, held slaves, saw slavery as a necessary evil. 3:29 Jefferson once wrote, quote, "As it is, we have the wolf by the ear, and we can neither hold him, nor safely let him go. 3:37 Justice is on one scale, and self-preservation in the other." 3:41 The belief that justice and self-preservation couldn't sit on the same side of the scale was really opposed to the American idea, 3:47 and, in the end, it would make the Civil War inevitable. 3:50 But as slavery became more entrenched in these ideas of liberty and political equality were embraced by more people, 3:55 some southerners began to make the case that slavery wasn't just a necessary evil. 3:59 They argued, for instance, that slaves benefited from slavery. 4:03 Because, you know, because their masters fed them and clothed them and took care of them in their old age. 4:07 You still hear this argument today, astonishingly. 4:09 In fact, you'll probably see asshats in the comments saying that in the comments. 4:12 I will remind you, it's not cursing if you are referring to an actual ass. 4:15 This paternalism allowed masters to see themselves as benevolent and to contrast their family-oriented slavery with the cold, mercenary Capitalism of the free-labor North. 4:26 So yeah, in the face of rising criticism of slavery, some southerners began to argue that the institution was actually good for the social order. 4:33 One of the best-known proponents of this view was John C. Calhoun, who, in 1837, said this in a speech on the Senate floor: 4:40 "I hold that, in the present state of civilization, 4:43 where two races of different origin and distinguished by color and other physical differences as well as intellectual, are brought together, 4:51 the relation now existing in the slave-holding states between the two is, instead of an evil, a good. A positive good." 4:59 Now, of course, John C. Calhoun was a fringe politician, and nobody took his views particularly seriously. 5:04 Stan: Well, he was Secretary of State from 1844 to 1845. 5:07 John: Well, I mean, who really cares about the Secretary of State, Stan? 5:10 Danica: Eh, he was also Secretary of War from 1817 to 1825. 5:13 John: All right, but we don't even have a Secretary of War anymore, so... 5:16 Meredith: And he was Vice President from 1825 to 1832. 5:19 John: Oh my god, were we insane?! 5:21 We were, of course, but we justified the insanity with Biblical passages and with the examples of the Greeks and Romans, 5:28 and with outright racism, arguing that black people were inherently inferior to whites. 5:33 And that not to keep them in slavery would upset the natural order of things. 5:37 A worldview popularized millennia ago by my nemesis, Aristotle. God, I hate Aristotle. 5:42 You know what defenders of Aristotle always say? 5:44 "He was the first person to identify dolphins." 5:47 Well, ok, dolphin identifier. 5:50 Yes, that is what he should be remembered for, but he's a terrible philosopher! Lives & experiences of enslaved people 5:53 Here's the truth about slavery: 5:55 It was coerced labor that relied upon intimidation and brutality and dehumanization. 6:00 And this wasn't just a cultural system, it was a legal one. 6:03 I mean, Louisiana law proclaimed that a slave "owes his master... a respect without bounds, and an absolute obedience." 6:09 The signal feature of slaves' lives was work. 6:12 I mean, conditions and tasks varied, but all slaves labored, usually from sunup to sundown, and almost always without any pay. 6:20 Most slaves worked in agriculture on plantations, and conditions were different, depending on which crops are grown. 6:25 Like, slaves on the rice plantations of South Carolina had terrible working conditions, 6:29 but they labored under the task system, which meant that once they had completed their allotted daily work, they would have time to do other things. 6:36 But lest you imagine this is like how we have work and leisure time, bear in mind that they were owned and treated as property. 6:42 On cotton plantations, most slaves worked in gangs, usually under the control of an overseer, or another slave who was called a "driver." 6:49 This was back-breaking work done in the southern sun and humidity, and so it's not surprising that whippings – or the threat of them – were often necessary to get slaves to work. 6:58 It's easy enough to talk about the brutality of slave discipline, but it can be difficult to internalize it. 7:03 Like, you look at these pictures, but because you've seen them over and over again, they don't have the power they once might have. 7:09 The pictures can tell a story about cruelty, but they don't necessarily communicate how arbitrary it all was. 7:14 As, for example, in this story, told by a woman who was a slave as a young girl: 7:18 "[The] overseer... went to my father one morning and said, "Bob, I'm gonna whip you this morning." 7:22 Daddy said, "I ain't done nothing," and he said, "I know it, I'm going to whip you to keep you from doing nothing," 7:28 and he hit him with that cowhide – you know it would cut the blood out of you with every lick if they hit you hard." 7:33 That brutality – the whippings, the brandings, the rape – was real, and it was intentional, because, in order for slavery to function, slaves had to be dehumanized. 7:43 This enabled slaveholders to rationalize what they were doing, and it was hoped to reduce slaves to the animal property that is implied by the term "chattel slavery." 7:51 So the idea was that slaveholders wouldn't think of their slaves as human, and slaves wouldn't think of themselves as human. 7:57 But it didn't work. Let's go to the Thought Bubble. 7:59 Slaves' resistance to their dehumanization took many forms, but the primary way was by forming families. Family, love, & religion of enslaved people 8:05 Family was a refuge for slaves and a source of dignity that masters recognized and sought to stifle. 8:10 A paternalistic slave owner named Bennet H. Barrow wrote in his rules for the Highland Plantation: 8:15 "No rule that I have stated is of more importance than that relating to Negroes marrying outside of the plantation... It creates a feeling of independence." 8:23 Most slaves did marry, usually for life, and, when possible, slaves grew up in two-parent households. 8:28 Single-parent households were common, though, as a result of one parent being sold. 8:32 In the upper South, where the economy was shifting from tobacco to different, less labor-intensive cash crops, the sale of slaves was common. 8:40 Perhaps one-third of slave marriages in states like Virginia were broken up by sale. 8:45 Religion was also an important part of life in slavery. 8:47 While masters wanted their slaves to learn the parts of the Bible that talked about being happy in bondage, 8:52 slave worship tended to focus on the stories of Exodus, where Moses brought the slaves out of bondage, 8:57 or Biblical heroes, who overcame great odds, like Daniel and David. 9:01 And, although most slaves were forbidden to learn to read and write, many did anyway. And some became preachers. 9:07 Slave preachers were often very charismatic leaders, and they roused the suspicion of slave owners, and not without reason. 9:13 Two of the most important slave uprisings in the South were led by preachers. 9:16 Thanks, Thought Bubble. 9:17 Oh, it's time for the Mystery Document? Mystery Document 9:19 We're doing two set pieces in a row? All right. [buzzing noise] [music] 9:24 The rules here are simple. 9:26 I wanted to re-shoot that, but Stan said no. 9:29 I guess the author of the Mystery Document. 9:30 If I am wrong, I get shocked with the shock pen. 9:33 "Since I have been in the Queen's dominions I have been well contented, yes well contented for sure, man is as God intended he should be. 9:40 That is, all are born free and equal. 9:43 This is a wholesome law, not like the southern laws which puts man made in the image of God on level with brutes. 9:49 O, what will become of the people, and where will they stand in the day of judgment. 9:53 Would that the 5th verse of the 3rd chapter of Malachi were written as with a bar of iron, 9:59 and the point of a diamond upon every oppressor's heart that they might repent of this evil, and let the oppressed go free..." 10:06 All right, it's definitely a preacher, because only preachers have read Malachi. 10:10 Probably African American, probably not someone from the South. 10:13 I'm going to guess that it is Richard Allen, the founder of the African Methodist Episcopal Church? 10:18 [buzzing noise] DAAAH, DANG IT! 10:19 It's Joseph Taper, and Stan just pointed out to me that I should have known it was Joseph Taper because it starts out, 10:24 "Since I have been in the Queen's dominions..." 10:27 He was in Canada. He escaped slavery to Canada. The Queen's dominions! 10:31 All right, Canadians, I blame you for this, although, thank you for abolishing slavery decades before we did. 10:36 [electric sounds] AHHH! How people resisted & escaped slavery 10:37 So, the Mystery Document shows one of the primary ways that slaves resisted their oppression: by running away. 10:42 Although some slaves like Joseph Taper escaped for good by running away to northern free states, 10:47 or even to Canada, where they wouldn't have to worry about fugitive slave laws, even more slaves ran away temporarily, hiding out in the woods or the swamps, and eventually returning. 10:55 No one knows exactly how many slaves escaped to freedom, but the best estimate is that a thousand or so a year made the journey northward. 11:01 Most fugitive slaves were young men, but the most famous runaway has been hanging out behind me all day long: Harriet Tubman. 11:07 Harriet Tubman escaped to Philadelphia at the age of 29, and over the course of her life, she made about 20 trips back to Maryland to help friends and relatives make the journey north on the Underground Railroad. 11:17 But a more dramatic form of resistance to slavery was actual, armed rebellion, which was attempted. 11:22 Now, individuals sometimes took matters into their own hands and beat or even killed their white overseers or masters. 11:27 Like Bob, the guy who received the arbitrary beating, responded to it by killing his overseer with a hoe. 11:33 But that said, large-scale slave uprisings were relatively rare. 11:36 The four most famous ones all took place in a 35-year period at the beginning of the 19th century. Slave rebellions 11:41 Gabriel's Rebellion in 1800 – which we've talked about before – was discovered before he was able to carry out his plot. 11:45 Then, in 1811, a group of slaves upriver from New Orleans seized cane, knives, and guns, and marched on the city before militia stopped them. 11:52 And in 1822, Denmark Vesey, a former slave who had purchased his freedom, may have organized a plot to destroy Charleston, South Carolina. 11:59 I say "may have" because the evidence against him is disputed and comes from a trial that was not fair. 12:05 But regardless, the end result of that trial was that he was executed, as were 34 slaves. Nat Turner's Rebellion 12:09 But the most successful slave rebellion, at least in the sense that they actually killed some people, was Nat Turner's in August 1831. 12:15 Turner was a preacher, and with a group of about 80 slaves, he marched from farm to farm in South Hampton County, Virginia, 12:21 killing the inhabitants, most of whom were women and children, because the men were attending a religious revival meeting in North Carolina. 12:27 Turner and 17 other rebels were captured and executed, but not before they struck terror into the hearts of whites all across the American South. 12:34 Virginia's response was to make slavery worse, passing even harsher laws that forbade slaves from preaching, and prohibited teaching them to read. 12:42 Other slave states followed Virginia's lead and, by the 1830s, slavery had grown, if anything, more harsh. 12:47 So, this shows that large-scaled armed resistance was – Django Unchained aside – not just suicidal, but also a threat to loved ones and, really, to all slaves. How enslaved people resisted their oppression & why it matters 12:55 But, it is hugely important to emphasize that slaves did resist their oppression. 12:59 Sometimes this meant taking up arms, but usually it meant more subtle forms of resistance, 13:03 like intentional work slowdowns or sabotaging equipment, or pretending not to understand instructions. 13:08 And, most importantly, in the face of systematic legal and cultural degradation, they re-affirmed their humanity through family and through faith. 13:16 Why is this so important? 13:17 Because too often in America, we still talk about slaves as if they failed to rise up, 13:21 when, in fact, rising up would not have made life better for them or for their families. 13:26 The truth is, sometimes carving out an identity as a human being in a social order that is constantly seeking to dehumanize you, is the most powerful form of resistance. 13:34 Refusing to become the chattel that their masters believed them to be is what made slavery untenable and the Civil War inevitable, so make no mistake, slaves fought back. 13:45 And in the end, they won. I'll see you next week. Credits 13:48 Crash Course is produced and directed by Stan Muller. 13:50 The script supervisor is Meredith Danko. 13:52 Our associate producer is Danica Johnson. 13:54 The show is written by my high school history teacher Raoul Meyer and myself. 13:57 And our graphics team is Thought Cafe. 13:58 Every week, there's a new caption to the Libertage, but today's episode was so sad that we couldn't fit a Libertage in... 14:04 UNTIL NOW! [Libertage Rock Music] 14:08 Suggest Libertage caption in comments, where you can also ask questions about today's video that will be answered by our team of historians. 14:13 Thanks for watching Crash Course, and as we say in my home town, don't forget to be abolitionist.

Figure 18-11 represents the amount of energy stored as organic material in each trophic level in an ecosystem. The pyramid shape of the diagram indicates the low percentage of energy transfer from one level to the next. On average, 10 percent of the total energy consumed in one trophic level is incor- porated into the organisms in the next. Why is the percentage of energy transfer so low? One reason is that some of the organisms in a trophic level escape being eaten. They eventually die and become food for decomposers, but the energy contained in their bodies does not pass to a higher trophic level. Even when an organism is eaten, some of the molecules in its body will be in a form that the consumer cannot break down and use. For example, a cougar cannot extract energy from the antlers, hooves, and hair of a deer. Also, the energy used by prey for cellu- lar respiration cannot be used by predators to synthesize new bio- mass. Finally, no transformation or transfer of energy is 100 percent efficient. Every time energy is transformed, such as during the reactions of metabolism, some energy is lost as heat. Limitations of Trophic Levels The low rate of energy transfer between trophic levels explains why ecosystems rarely contain more than a few trophic levels. Because only about 10 percent of the energy available at one trophic level is transferred to the next trophic level, there is not enough energy in the top trophic level to support more levels. Organisms at the lowest trophic level are usually much more abundant than organisms at the highest level. In Africa, for exam- ple, you will see about 1,000 zebras, gazelles, and other herbivores for every lion or leopard you see, and there are far more grasses and shrubs than there are herbivores. Higher trophic levels con- tain less energy, so, they can support fewer individuals.A population is a group of organisms that belong to the same species and live in a particular place at the same time. All of the bass living in a pond during a certain period of time make up a pop- ulation because they are isolated in the pond and do not interact with bass living in other ponds. The boundaries of a population may be imposed by a feature of the environment, such as a lake shore, or they can be arbitrarily chosen to simplify a study of the population. The humans shown in Figure 19-1 are part of the pop- ulation of a city. The properties of populations differ from those of individuals. An individual may be born, it may reproduce, or it may die. A population study focuses on a population as a whole—how many individuals are born, how many die, and so on. Population Size A population’s size is the number of individuals that the population contains. Size is a fundamental and important population property but can be difficult to measure directly. If a population is small and composed of immobile organisms, such as plants, its size can be determined simply by counting individuals. Often, though, individ- uals are too abundant, too widespread, or too mobile to be counted easily, and scientists must estimate the number of individuals in the population. Suppose that a scientist wants to know how many oak trees live in a 10 km2 patch of forest. Instead of searching the entire patch of forest and counting all the oak trees, the scientist could count the trees in a smaller section of the forest, such as a 1 km2 area. The scientist could then use this value to estimate the population of the larger area. SECTION 1 OBJECTIVES ● Describe the main properties that scientists measure when they study populations. ● Compare the three general patterns of population dispersion. ● Identify the measurements used to describe changing populations. ● Compare the three general types of survivorship curves. VOCABULARY population population density dispersion birth rate death rate life expectancy age structure survivorship curve FIGURE 19-1 A population can be widely distributed, as Earth’s human population is, or confined to a small area, as species of fish in a lake are. Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. 382 CHAPTER 19 If the small patch contains 25 oaks, an area 10 times larger would likely contain 10 times as many oak trees. A similar kind of sampling technique might be used to estimate the size of the pop- ulation shown in Figure 19-2. To use this kind of estimate, the sci- entist must assume that the distribution of individuals in the entire population is the same as that in the sampled group. Estimates of population size are based on many such assumptions, so all esti- mates have the potential for error. Population Density Population density measures how crowded a population is. This measurement is always expressed as the number of individuals per unit of area or volume. For example, the population density of humans in the United States is about 30 people per square kilome- ter. Table 19-1 shows the population sizes and densities of humans in several countries in 2003. These estimates are calculated for the total land area. Some areas of a country may be sparsely popu- lated, while other areas are very densely populated. Dispersion A third population property is dispersion (di-SPUHR-zhuhn). Dispersion is the spatial distribution of individuals within the popu- lation. In a clumped distribution, individuals are clustered together. In a uniform distribution, individuals are separated by a fairly con- sistent distance. In a random distribution, each individual’s location is independent of the locations of other individuals in the popula- tion. Figure 19-3 illustrates the three possible patterns of dispersion. Clumped distributions often occur when resources such as food or living space are clumped. Clumped distributions may also occur because of a species’ social behavior, such as when animals gather into herds or flocks. Uniform distributions may result from social behavior in which individuals within the same habitat stay as far away from each other as possible. For example, a bird may locate its nest so as to maximize the distance from the nests of other birds. These migrating wildebeests in East Africa are too numerous and mobile to be counted. Scientists must use sampling methods at several locations to monitor changes in the population size of the animals. FIGURE 19-2 TABLE 19-1 Population Size and Density of Some Countries Population size Population density Country (in millions) (in individuals/km2) China 1,289 135 India 1,069 325 United States 292 30 Russia 146 8 Japan 128 337 Mexico 105 54 Kenya 32 54 Australia 20 3 dispersion from the Latin dis-, meaning “out,” and spargere, meaning “to scatter” Word Roots and Origins Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. POPULATIONS 383 The social interactions of birds called gannets, which are shown in Figure 19-3b, result in a uniform distribution. Each gannet chooses a small nesting area on the coast and defends it from other gannets. In this way, each gannet tries to maximize its distance from all of its neighbors, which causes a uniform distribution of individuals. Few populations are truly randomly dispersed. Rather, they show degrees of clumping or uniformity. The dispersion pattern of a population sometimes depends on the scale at which the popu- lation is observed. The gannets shown in Figure 19-3b are uni- formly distributed on a scale of a few meters. However, if the entire island on which the gannets live is observed, the distribution appears clumped because the birds live only near the shore. POPULATION DYNAMICS All populations are dynamic—they change in size and composition over time. To understand these changes, scientists must know more than the population’s size, density, and dispersion. One important measure is the birth rate, the number of births occur- ring in a period of time. In the United States, for example, there are about 4 million births per year. A second important measure is the death rate, or mortality rate, which is the number of deaths in a

As long as the birth rate of a population exceeds the death rate, the population size will continue to increase. At a steady, positive per capita growth rate, the population will add a larger number of indi- viduals with each generation. So, a population can increase rapidly with even a small growth rate. A pattern of increase in number due to a steady growth rate is called exponential growth. The observa- tion that populations can grow in this pattern is called the exponential (EKS-poh-NEN-shuhl) model of population growth. One way to understand the exponential model is to study a graph of population size over time. A graph of exponential growth makes the characteristic J-shaped curve shown in Figure 19-6. With expo- nential growth, population size grows slowly when it is small, but growth speeds up as individuals join the population. The exponen- tial model leads us to predict that the population size will increase indefinitely and by a greater number with each time period. Applying the Exponential Model A scientific model is useful if it helps to predict or explain pat- terns that can be observed in reality. Indeed, the exponential model matches observed patterns of growth of real populations, but only under certain conditions and for limited periods of time. For example, a population of microorganisms can grow exponen- tially if provided with an abundance of food and space and if waste is removed. Figure 19-7 shows the growth of bacteria in a laboratory. However, the exponential model does not apply to most popu- lations. In natural environments, populations cannot grow indefi- nitely because the resources they depend on become scarce and harmful wastes accumulate. Any factor, such as space, that restrains the growth of a population is called a limiting factor. All populations are ultimately limited by their environment.SPECIES INTERACTIONS Just as populations contain interacting members of a single species, communities contain interacting populations of many species. Many species have specific types of interactions with other species. This chapter introduces the five major types of interactions among species: predation, competition, parasitism, mutualism, and commensalism. These categories are based on whether each species causes any benefit or harm to the other species in a given relationship. PREDATION In predation (pree-DAY-shuhn), an individual of one species, called the predator, eats all or part of an individual of another species, called the prey. Predation is a powerful force in a community. The relationship between predator and prey influences the size of each population and affects where and how each species lives. Examples of predators include carnivores—predators that eat ani- mals—and herbivores—predators that eat plants. Many types of organisms can act as predators or prey. All heterotrophs are either predators or parasites or both. Predator Adaptations Natural selection favors the evolution of predator adaptations for finding, capturing, and consuming prey. For example, rattlesnakes have an acute sense of smell and have heat-sensitive pits located below each nostril. These pits enable a rattlesnake to detect warm- bodied prey, even in the dark. Many snakes use venom to disable or kill their prey. A venomous rat- tlesnake is shown in Figure 20-1. Other predator adaptations include the sticky webs of spiders, the flesh-cutting teeth of wolves and coyotes, the speed of cheetahs, and the striped pat- tern of a tiger’s coat, which provides camouflage in a grassland habitat. Many herbivores have mouthparts suited to cutting and chewing tough vegetation. A predator’s survival depends on its ability to capture food, but a prey’s survival depends on its ability to avoid being captured. Therefore, natural selection also favors adaptations in prey that allow the prey to escape, avoid, or otherwise ward off

The cytoskeleton is a network of thin tubes and filaments that crisscrosses the cytosol. The tubes and filaments give shape to the cell from the inside in the same way that tent poles support the shape of a tent. The cytoskeleton also acts as a system of internal tracks, shown in Figure 4-18, on which items move around inside the cell. The cytoskeleton’s functions are based on several struc- tural elements. Three of these are microtubules, microfilaments, and intermediate filaments, shown and described in Table 4-2. Microtubules Microtubules are hollow tubes made of a protein called tubulin. Each tubulin molecule consists of two slightly different subunits. Microtubules radiate outward from a central point called the centrosome near the nucleus. Microtubules hold organelles in place, maintain a cell’s shape, and act as tracks that guide organelles and molecules as they move within the cell. Microfilaments Finer than microtubules, microfilaments are long threads of the beadlike protein actin and are linked end to end and wrapped around each other like two strands of a rope. Microfilaments con- tribute to cell movement, including the crawling of white blood cells and the contraction of muscle cells. Intermediate Filaments Intermediate filaments are rods that anchor the nucleus and some other organelles to their places in the cell. They maintain the inter- nal shape of the nucleus. Hair-follicle cells produce large quantities of intermediate filament proteins. These proteins make up most of the hair shaft. 84 CHAPTER 4 TABLE 4-2 The Structure of the Cytoskeleton Property Microtubules Microfilaments Intermediate filaments Structure hollow tubes made of two strands of intertwined protein fibers coiled into coiled protein protein cables Protein subunits tubulin, with two subunits: å actin one of several types of and ∫ tubulin fibrous proteins Main function maintenance of cell shape; cell maintenance and changing of maintenance of cell shape; motility (in cilia and flagella); cell shape; muscle contraction; anchor nucleus and other chromosome movement; movement of cytoplasm; cell organelles; maintenance of organelle movement motility; cell division shape of nucleus Shape Microtubules provide a path for organelles and molecules as they move throughout the cell. FIGURE 4-18 Microtubules Nucleus Endoplasmic reticulum Mitochondrion Ribosomes Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. CELL STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION 85 1. Explain how the fluid mosaic model describes the plasma membrane. 2. List three cellular functions that occur in the nucleus. 3. Describe the organelles that are found in a eukaryotic cell. 4. Identify two characteristics that make mitochon- dria different from other organelles. 5. Contrast three types of cytoskeletal fibers. CRITICAL THINKING 6. Relating Concepts If a cell has a high energy requirement, would you expect the cell to have many mitochondria or few mitochondria? Why? 7. Analyzing Information How do scientists think that mitochondria originated? Why? 8. Analyzing Statements It is not completely accurate to say that organelles are floating freely in the cytosol. Why not? SECTION 3 REVIEW During cell division, centrioles organize microtubules that pull the chromosomes (orange) apart. The centrioles are at the center of rays of microtubules, which have been stained green with a fluorescent dye. FIGURE 4-20 Cilia and Flagella Cilia (SIL-ee-uh) and flagella (fluh-JEL-uh) are hairlike structures that extend from the surface of the cell, where they assist in movement. Cilia are short and are present in large numbers on certain cells, whereas flagella are longer and are far less numerous on the cells where they occur. Cilia and flagella have a membrane on their outer surface and an internal structure of nine pairs of micro- tubules around two central tubules, as Figure 4-19 shows. Cilia on cells in the inner ear vibrate and help detect sound. Cilia cover the surfaces of many protists and “row” the protists through water like thousands of oars. On other protists, cilia sweep water and food particles into a mouthlike opening. Many kinds of protists use flagella to propel themselves, as do human sperm cells. Centrioles Centrioles consist of two short cylinders of microtubules at right angles to each other and are situated in the cytoplasm near the nuclear envelope. Centrioles occur in animal cells, where they organize the microtubules of the cytoskeleton during cell division, as shown in Figure 4-20. Plant cells lack centrioles. Basal bodies have the same structure that centrioles do. Basal bodies are found at the base of cilia and flagella and appear to organize the devel- opment of cilia and flagella.

Why and How Managers Plan Importance of planning The planing process Benefits of planning Planning and time management Types of PLans used by managers Long term and short term plans Strageic and tactical plans Operational plans Planning Tools and Techiqunes Forecasting Contrigency planning Scenario planning Benchmaking Use of staff planners Implementing Plans to Achive Results Goal setting Goal management Goal alignment Participation and involvement Planning Def: The process of setting objectives and determining how best to accomplish them Planning at Eaton Corporation “Making the hard decision before events force them upon you, an anticipating the future needs of the market before the demand asset itself Objectives and goals Identifity the specific results or desired outcomes that one intends to achieve Plan Def: A statement of action steps to be taken in order to accomplish the objectives (goals) Steps in the planning process: Define your objectives Determine where you stand vis-a-vis objectives Develpo premises reagrdsing future conditions Analyze alternatives and make a plan Implement the plan and evaluate results What are the benefits of planning Improves focus and flexibility Imporves action orteitation Imporves coordination and control Imporves time management Time Managment Personal time management tips Do say “no” to request that distract you form what you should be doing Dont get bogged down inn details that can be addressed later Do screen telephone calls, emails and meeting request Dont let drop in visitors, text messaging use up your time Do prioritize your important and urgent work Dont become calendar bound by letting other control your schedule Do follow priorities; do most important and urgent work first Some 77% of mangers in one survey said that digital age has increased th number of decisions they have to make 43% said there was less time available to make these decisions Types of plans used by Managers What is teh time horizon Long term vs Short term Long term Look three or more years into teh future Short term plans Typically cover one year or less However: the increasing environmental complexity and dynamism of recent years has severely tested the concept of “long-term” planning Plans are subject to frequent revisions Most executives would likely agree that these complexities adn uncertainties challenge how er actually go about planning and how far ahead we can really plan At the very least we can conclude that there is a lot less permanency to long term plans today and that tey are subject to frequent revision Managment reaeracher Eillot Jaques believes tha people vary in their capability to think with different time horizons Types of Plans used by Managers (3 of 5) Strategic plans Set broad, comprehensive and linger term action directions for teh entire organization or major division Vision Clarifies purpose of the organization and what it hopes to be on the future Typical plans Specify how the organizations resources are used to implement strategy Tactical plans in business often take the form of functional plans Functional plans Incidate how different component within the organiztion will help accompnlish the overall strategy Production plans Finacial plans Facilites Plans Logisitc plans Marketing plans Human Resource Plans Operation plans Describe short-term activities to implement strategic plans Policies: Are standing plans that communicate guidelines for decisions Ex: Policies on office romances: The media is quick to report when a top executive or public figures runs into trouble over an office affair. Are there ant policies on office romances? Employer polices on office raltioshiis vary. One survey find teh following: 24% prohibit relationships among employees in the same department 13% prohibit relationships among employees who have the smae supervisor 80% prohibit relationships between supervisors and subordinates 5% have no restrictions on office romances Procedures: Are rules that describe actions to be taken in specific situations Budgets: are single use plans that commit resources to projects or activities Zero based budgets: allocate resources as if each budget were brand new There is no guarantee that any past funding will be renwer. All propsales, old and new, must compete for available funds at teh start of each new budget cycle Forcasting Attempts to predict the future Qualitaive forecasting uses expert opinions Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statiscal aanylsis of historical data dna surveys Contingency planning Identify alternative course of action to take when things go wrong Anticipate changing conditions Contain trigger points to indicate when to activate plan (or a specific course of action) Scenario planning A long term version of contingency planning Identifying alternative future scenarios Plans made for each future scenario Increases organizations flexibility and preparation for future shocks Benchmarking Use of external and internal comparisons to better evaluate current performance Adopting best practices: things people adn organization do that lead to superior performance Staff Planners Experts who assist in all steps of the planning process They help bring focus and expertise to a wide variety of planning tasks Important: Communication between staff planers landline managers is essential for teh success of teh planning process Goal Setting - Always set SMART goal The solution: Goal Aligment Between Team Leader and Team Member Jonintly plan: Set objectives, set standards, choose actions Individually acy: Perform tasks (member), provide support (leader) Jointly control: Review results, discuss implications, renew cycle x4 Collective effort and commitment Participatroy planning Includes in all planning steps that people who will be affected by the plans adn askedd to help implement them Unloacks motivational potential of goal setting Management by objective (MBO) promotes participation Participation increases understanding and acceptance of plan and commitment to success Participatory planning - Number of people involved in teh decision making process Amazon is intensely focused on what it does. It believes in creating tight single-threaded teams, also known as “2 pizza team.” Data and Decision Making What are some of the important competencies managers must have today? Delegate Marketing and technology Manager must have Technological competency Ability to understand new technologies and to use them to their best advantage Information competency Ability to locate, gather, organize and display information for decision-making and problem solving Analytical competency Ability to evaluate and analyze information to make actual decisions and solve real problems What is the difference between Data and Information Data Raw facts and observation Information Data made useful and meaningful for decision-making Important concepts Big data Exists in huge quantities and is difficult to process without sophisticated mathematical and analytical techniques Data production today Bernard Marr is an internationally best-selling author. He helps organizations improve their business performance, use data more intelligently Data mining The process of analyzing data to produce useful information for decision-makers Management Analytics The systematic evaluation and analysis of data to make informed decision Information drives management Bad Data Refers to information that can be erroneous, misleading, and without general formatting The challenge: Can er use the data that is available in the “Big Data” Needs to be valid Can not trust everything out there Being ethical Look at the trends Data is structured and unstructured Data BIg Data = Structured + Unstructured Information Drive Management decision making What are the characteristics of useful information Easy to access If its credible Accurate Characteristics of useful information: Timely High quality Complete Relevant Understandable What about bad data It's not credible Miss information If it is not structured/ organized Bias based on opinions Confusing If its updated Bad data Refers to information that can be erroneous miss What are some examples of Management information system Business intelligence -BI Information systems to extract and report data in organized ways that are useful to decision-makers Executive dashboards Visually update and display key performance metrics (or Key Performance Indicators -KPIs) and information on a real-time basis Information needs in organization External Environment Information exchanges with the external environment Gather intelligence information Provide public information Information needs within the organizations (internal Enviroement) Information exchange within the organization Facilitate decision making Facilitate problem-solving Managers as information processors Continually gather, share and receive information Now as much electronic as it is face-to-face Always on, always connected How many people telecommute at least once a week 70% of people globally work remotely at least once a week, Work at home after covid 19 our forecast Our best estimate it that 25-30% of the workforce will be working form home multiple days a week by the end of 2021 As of 2023, 12.7% of full time employees work from home, while 28.2% work a hybrid model Managers as problem solvers Problem-solving The process of identifying a discrepancy between actual and desired performance and taking action to resolve it Ishikawa Fishbone diagram To identify the cause of problems Decision A choice among possible alternative courses of action Performance threat Something is wrong or has the potential to go wrong Performance opportunity The situation offers the chance for a better future if the right steps are taken Problem-solving approaches or style - from textbook Problem avoiders Inactive in information gathering and solving problems Problem seekers Proactive in anticipation of problems and opportunities and taking appropriate action to gain an advantage Problem solvers Reactive in gathering information and solving problem Managers - can approach problems in a systematic or intuitive manner Systematic thinking approaches problem in rational, step-by-step and analytical fashion Intuitive thinking approaches problems in a flexible and spontaneous fashion Multidimensional thinking- applies both intuitive and systematic thinking Managers face structured and unstructured problems Structure problems Are ones that are familiar, straight forward, and clear with respect to information needs Program decisions apply solutions that are readily available from past experiences to solve structured problems Know how to solve them Familiar Know what we are dealing with Unstructured problems Are ones that are full of ambiguities and information deficiencies Nonprogrammed decisions apply a specific solution to meet the demands of a unique problem Commonly faced by higher-level management Crisis decision making A crisis involves an unexpected problem that can lead to disaster if not resolved quickly and appropriately Ruled for crisis management Figure out what is going on Remember that speed matters Remember that slow counts, too Respect the danger of the unfamiliar Value the skeptic Be ready to “fight fire with fire” Managers make decisions with various amounts of information Certain environment Offers complete information on possible action alternatives and their consequences Risk environment Lacks complete information but offers probabilities of the likely outcomes for possible action alternatives Uncertain environment Lacks so much information that it is difficult to assign probabilities to the likely outcomes of alternative Ex: Certain and uncertain environments: The worldwide Governance Indicators for over 200 countries, comparing distinct environments (Canada-Brazil) Step 1-Identify and define the problem Focuses on information gathering information processing and deliberation Decision objectives should be established What are some common mistakes in definding problems? Common mistakes in defining problems Defining the problem too broadly or too narrowly Focusing on symptoms instead of causes Choosing the wrong problem to deal with Step 2- Generate and Evaluate Alternative Courses of Action Potential solutions are formulated and more information is gathered, data are analyzed, the advantages and disadvantages of alternative solutions are identified Common mistakes: Abandoning the search for alternatives too quickly Step 3- Decide on a preferred course of Action Two different approaches Behavioural model leads to satisficing decisions Classical model les to optimising decisions Behavioural Model Rationality is bounded because: There are limits our thinks capacity Available information (incomplete) Time constraints Step 4-Implement the decision Involves taking action to make sure the solution decided upon becomes a reality Managers need to have the willingness and ability to implement action plans Problems: Lack of participation error should be avoided Step 5 - Evaluate Results Involves comparing actual and desired results The positive and negative consequences of the chosen course of action should be examined If actual results fall short desire results, the manager returns to earlier steps in the decision-making process At all steps, check ethical reasoning Ask these spotlight questions Utility Does teh decision satisfy all constituents or stakeholders Rights Does the description respect the rights and duties of everyone? Justice Is the decision consistent with the canons of justice Caring Is the decision consistent with my responsibilities to care? Issues in decision-making How do errors happen? Heuristics: are strategies for simplifying decision-making Availability Bias: Bases a decision on recent information or events Representativeness bias: Bases a decision on similarity to other situations Anchoring and Adjustment Bias: Bases a decision on incremental adjustment from a prior decision point Framing error: Tring to solve a problem in the context perceived, positive or negative Confirmation Error: Focusing on information that confirms a decision already made Escalating commitment: Continuing a course of action even though it is not working Creative Decision making Creativity is the generation of a novel idea or unique approach that solves a problem or crafts an opportunity Big C: Creativity occurs when extraordinary things are done by exceptional people Little C: Creativity occurs when average people come up with unique ways to deal with daily events and situations The three types of situational creativity drivers Chapter review What are objectives and goals? The specific results or desired outcomes What are the 5 characteristics of great (SMART) goals? Forecasting - Attempts Qualitative forecasting uses options Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statistical analysis of historical data and surveys Scenarios-Oracle’s crystal ball combines qualitative and quantitative methods

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