China's Population Concerns

ASEAN, international organization established by the governments of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand in 1967 to accelerate economic growth and promote peace and security in Southeast Asia. Brunei joined in 1984, followed by Vietnam in 1995, Laos and Myanmar in 1997, and Cambodia in 1999. East Timor has been granted observer status and is expected to become a full member in 2025. The ASEAN region has a population of more than 700 million, covers a total area of 1.7 million square miles (4.5 million square km), and had a combined gross domestic product of $3.62 trillion as of 2022. Since its establishment, ASEAN has substantially enhanced security and stability throughout Southeast Asia, while also promoting economic growth and cooperation on international issues. Yet certain regional issues remain divisive within ASEAN, such as Myanmar’s civil war, which has proved challenging for the bloc to address uniformly, and relations with China, particularly with regards to economic ties and territorial disputes in the South China Sea. ASEAN’s history ASEAN's 50th Summit ASEAN's 50th SummitDelegates from Southeast Asian nations gather at the 50th ASEAN Summit in Melbourne, March 2024. ASEAN’s origins can be traced back to earlier regional organizations such as the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), founded in 1954, and the Association of Southeast Asia (ASA), established in 1961. These early efforts, however, were limited in scope and membership. In 1967 ASEAN was established by Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration in Bangkok. The initial aim was to encourage regional cooperation and create a collective front against the spread of communism in Asia, reflecting the geopolitical concerns of the era. Lee Kuan Yew Lee Kuan YewPrime Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore at the Third ASEAN Summit, 1987, in Manila. The organization gained a new level of cohesion in the mid-1970s following the Vietnam War. ASEAN’s first summit meeting, held in Bali, Indonesia, in 1976, resulted in several significant agreements, including the signing of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. The end of the Cold War and increased regional development and stability saw ASEAN expand its membership, incorporating Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia by the end of the 1990s. This period also marked a shift toward deeper economic integration, exemplified by the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 1992 and the response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis with the Chiang Mai Agreement. The adoption of the ASEAN Charter in 2007 provided a legal and institutional framework defined by three core pillars: the ASEAN Economic Community, the ASEAN Political-Security Community, and the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. This structure has helped promote increased cooperation and mutual understanding, despite enormous differences in the political structures, cultural backgrounds, and development levels of member states.

In a single domesticated grain seed, one might see the bud of great civilizations. The birth of agriculture was a turning point in humans' social development, as stable food supplies enabled people to transcend the constraints of food gained by hunting and gathering. After that, people were able to settle down and experience population booms. As one of the major areas around the globe where agriculture originated, China has contributed to the world's domesticated rice, millet, buckwheat and soybeans. Archaeological studies have unveiled that the planting of rice originated around 10,000 years ago in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, leading to the eventual replacement there of hunting and gathering practices dating back 5,000 to 6,000 years. "It marked the formation of a rice-based agricultural society in the area," said Zhao Zhijun, an archaeologist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Archaeological studies of the origins of rice-based agriculture are an important part of a national project tracing the origins of Chinese civilization itself. President Xi Jinping has greatly valued the project. At a group study session of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee on May 27, 2022, Xi, who is also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, emphasized the significance of the project and the role that archaeological studies play in better understanding Chinese civilization. The project to trace the origins of Chinese civilization, in addition to finding signs of human activity more than 1 million years ago, has also proved that China's history includes 10,000 years of culture and more than 5,000 years of civilization. The project has provided clear knowledge of the origins and formation of Chinese civilization, the history of its development, the process of the formation and development of its pluralistic and integrated pattern, and the characteristics of the civilization and why it was formed in such a way, he added. This was not the first time that Xi emphasized the importance of the origin-tracing project. Since the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 2012, Xi has toured more than 100 historical and cultural locations and issued many instructions related to archaeology and the origin-tracing project. During the 23rd group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in 2020, Xi called for giving more attention to archaeological research and letting historical facts speak for themselves. "This will provide strong support for our efforts to carry forward the best of traditional Chinese culture and increase our cultural confidence," said Xi. The origin-tracing project has been carried out since 2002. Its ongoing fifth phase, which started in 2020, involves the participation of more than 500 researchers from 29 institutes across the country. It primarily centers on several ancient capital sites, including the Liangzhu site in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, the Taosi site in Xiangfen county, Shanxi province, the Shimao site in Shenmu, Shaanxi province, and the Erlitou site in Luoyang, Henan province, from 3,500 to 5,500 years ago, as well as other settlements mainly along the basins of the Yellow, Yangtze and Liaohe rivers. The project has also expanded to a wider geographic and chronological framework to decode how Chinese civilization emerged and how its diverse elements formed a unity. Excavation of the Liangzhu site, which is over 5,000 years old and is one of the major sites covered in the origin-tracing project, has yielded an inner city covering 3 million square meters and an outer city of 6.3 million sq m, making it the world's largest capital at the time. It also had a giant water control system, which contributed to the formation of a rice-based agricultural society. By calculating the earthwork volume, archaeologists found that building the entire ancient city, the water control system and Mojiaoshan — a 10-meter-tall man-made terrace in the center of the city — required 10,000 people working daily for seven-and-a-half years. The discoveries show that Liangzhu had a kingship able to organize people for large-scale public construction, and its social differentiation, emergence of the city concept and existence of a kingship prove that it became a civilized society, said Wang Wei, a veteran archaeologist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Significant topic Wang said that tracing the origins of a civilization is a significant topic in the research of human history. Over the years, the Chinese project has provided China's answer to how to define civilizations. In 2022, Xi commended the efforts and stressed that the project has made creative contributions to the research on tracing the origins of the world's civilizations. Wang said: "International academia has proposed three indispensable elements for a civilized society based on features of Mesopotamian and Egyptian civilizations: written characters, metallurgy and the city concept. But we can find that some of the three elements were absent in many ancient civilizations. For example, the Mayan civilization had no metallurgy, while the Incan civilization didn't have written characters." Western scholars believe that Chinese civilization began with the Yinxu Ruins in Anyang, Henan province, a capital of the late Shang Dynasty (c.16th century-11th century BC), based on the discovery of inscribed oracle bones from that time. However, Chinese archaeologists don't agree. With continued archaeological research, international academia now believes that places around the world can propose criteria for civilization based on their own ancient social development. China's archaeological studies have shaped the nation's criteria in defining a civilization: the development of productivity, an increase in population, the appearance of cities, social differentiation and the emergence of kingship and state. "These criteria are suitable for identifying other civilizations as well," said Wang. "Civilizations have in common the appearance of kingship and state. They are only different in the ways of imposing kingship and the forms of state." In China, kingship and state "were shown by exquisite jade and bronze ritual artifacts, grand palaces and magnificent mausoleums imitating aboveground palaces", he added. "In Mesopotamia and ancient Egypt, they were demonstrated through superb stone temples, pyramids and large-scale tombs." Multidisciplinary subject President Xi said in 2020 that archaeologists should work closely with researchers from other fields to make an interpretive analysis of material remains. Zhang Chi, a professor of archaeology at Peking University, said that since material remains are often the research focus of archaeological studies, these should not only be observed with the eyes, but also studied using scientific and technological tools. Therefore, from the perspective of research methods, archaeology is by nature a multidisciplinary subject, Zhang added.

Key Word Definition Aid Assistance in the form of grants or loans at below market rates. For example, the UK provided aid to Nepal after the 2015 earthquake to help with reconstruction efforts. Barriers to Trade Government constraints on the flow of international goods and services, such as tariffs and quotas. For example, the European Union imposes tariffs on certain agricultural products to protect its farmers. BRICS An acronym for an association of five major emerging nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. For example, BRICS nations often meet to discuss economic cooperation and development strategies. Demographic Aging The rise in the median age of a population. For example, Japan is experiencing demographic aging, with a significant increase in the elderly population. Economic Core Region The most highly developed region(s) in a country. For example, London is considered an economic core region in the UK due to its high level of development and economic activity. GNP (Gross National Product) GDP plus overseas earnings, also known as GNI (Gross National Income). For example, the GNP of the United States includes the value of goods and services produced domestically and the income earned by its citizens abroad. HIC (Higher Income Country) A country with a high level of income and development. For example, Germany is classified as a higher income country due to its high GDP per capita and advanced infrastructure. NEE (Newly Emerging Economy) A country that is experiencing rapid economic growth and industrialisation. For example, China is an example of a newly emerging economy, having rapidly industrialised and grown economically over the past few decades. LIC (Lower Income Country) A country with a low level of income and development. For example, Malawi is considered a lower income country, with a low GDP per capita and limited access to healthcare and education. GDHI (Gross Disposable Household Income) The amount of money that households have available for spending and saving after taxes and social contributions. For example, in the UK, the GDHI varies significantly between regions, with London having one of the highest levels. Gini Coefficient A measure of income inequality within a population, ranging from 0 (perfect equality) to 100 (perfect inequality). For example, South Africa has a high Gini coefficient, indicating significant income inequality within the country. Trade Unions Organisations that promote trade between member countries, such as the East African Community (EAC). For example, the East African Community (EAC) works to promote economic integration and trade among its member states. Fair Trade A movement aimed at helping producers in developing countries achieve better trading conditions and promote sustainability. For example, Fairtrade coffee ensures that farmers receive a fair price for their product and work under safe conditions. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) Investment made by a company or individual in one country in business interests in another country. For example, Toyota's investment in manufacturing plants in the UK is an example of foreign direct investment. Debt Relief The partial or total remission of debts, especially those owed by developing countries to external creditors. For example, the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative provides debt relief to eligible countries to help them achieve sustainable development. International Aid Voluntary transfer of resources from one country to another, often in the form of financial assistance, goods, or services. For example, the UK provides international aid to various countries through its Department for International Development (DFID). Top-Down Development Large-scale development projects led by national governments or international organisations. For example, the construction of the Three Gorges Dam in China is an example of a top-down development project. Bottom-Up Development Small-scale development projects led by local communities or NGOs, focusing on the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable. For example, WaterAid's installation of hand pumps in rural villages in Africa is an example of a bottom-up development project. Urbanisation The increase in the proportion of people living in urban areas compared to rural areas. For example, rapid urbanisation in India has led to the growth of megacities like Mumbai and Delhi. Geopolitics The study of the effects of geography (human and physical) on international politics and relations. For example, the geopolitics of the Arctic region involves disputes over territorial claims and access to natural resources. Quality of Life The general well-being of individuals and societies, outlining negative and positive features of life. For example, Scandinavian countries are often ranked high in quality of life due to their strong social welfare systems and high levels of happiness. Poverty Cycle A set of factors or events by which poverty, once started, is likely to continue unless there is outside intervention. For example, lack of education and healthcare can trap families in a poverty cycle, making it difficult for future generations to improve their living standards. Sustainable Development Economic development that is conducted without depletion of natural resources. For example, the use of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power is a key aspect of sustainable development. Humanitarian Aid Material or logistical assistance provided for humanitarian purposes, typically in response to crises including natural disasters and man-made disaster. For example, humanitarian aid was provided to Haiti after the devastating earthquake in 2010 to help with immediate relief efforts. Economic Growth An increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. For example, China's economic growth over the past few decades has lifted millions of people out of poverty. Social Indicators Measures that describe the well-being of individuals or communities, such as health, education, and income. For example, life expectancy and literacy rates are common social indicators used to assess development. Environmental Sustainability Responsible interaction with the environment to avoid depletion or degradation of natural resources and allow for long-term environmental quality. For example, practices like recycling and conservation of natural habitats contribute to environmental sustainability. Infrastructure The basic physical and organisational structures and facilities needed for the operation of a society or enterprise. For example, good infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and schools, is essential for economic development. Globalisation The process by which businesses or other organisations develop international influence or start operating on an international scale. For example, the globalisation of technology companies like Apple and Google has led to their products being available worldwide. Microfinance Financial services provided to low-income individuals or groups who are typically excluded from traditional banking. For example, microfinance institutions like Grameen Bank provide small loans to entrepreneurs in developing countries to help them start or expand their businesses.

Make a multiple choice quiz for my year 8 science students based on the science in this transcript from a video: 3°C 0:04 It can be the difference between snow and sleet 0:08 Wearing a jacket or not 0:11 In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant 0:15 But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic 0:20 Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 0:25 3°C of warming is really disastrous 0:28 The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there 0:32 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C 0:40 This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with 0:46 Children born today... 0:47 ...are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents 0:52 If global temperatures do rise by 3°C... 0:55 ...what would their world look like? Climate change is already having devastating effects 1:03 Rising sea levels 1:05 Desertification 1:07 Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world 1:11 While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction... 1:14 ...this film will show the scenario we all face... 1:17 ...unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels 1:30 In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear 1:35 The slums of Bangladesh’s capital are filling up with climate migrants 1:41 Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh 1:46 There, like many other parts of the country... 1:49 ...rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers... 1:53 ...are washing away people’s homes 1:56 Many, like her, have lost everything 2:00 Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land 2:03 There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house 2:08 There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home 2:12 We used to eat the fruit from our own trees 2:18 I can’t eat them now because they don't exist anymore 2:21 Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka 2:26 Life was much better back home 2:29 It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable 2:33 We didn’t have the time to save anything at all 2:38 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minara’s life 2:45 It’s one of the reasons why so many migrants like her... 2:47 ...are moving to the city each year... 2:50 ...nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate 2:53 And climate models show there could be much worse to come How climate modelling works 3:02 Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj... 3:04 ...has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios... 3:08 ...for the United Nations 3:10 The models we use to carry out this exercise... 3:13 ...really represent the state of the art... 3:15 ...of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading 3:19 Joeri’s projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world 3:26 Here this is the 3°C level... 3:28 ...and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies... 3:32 ...we would hit 3°C by the end of the century 3:36 This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at 3:40 Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept 3:44 The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept... 3:47 ...and net-zero targets are met 3:50 Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century... 3:54 ...there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead 3:59 One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance... 4:03 ...that the plane will crash Nowhere is safe from global warming 4:07 A rise of 3°C would affect everyone 4:10 Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldn’t be immune to the consequences 4:15 European capitals like Paris and Berlin... 4:18 ...would bake under more extreme heatwaves 4:22 Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate 4:27 In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events 4:33 Cities are hotter than the places around them... 4:36 ...they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding 4:39 And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you can’t in the countryside 4:46 And because of their denser populations... 4:49 ...disasters in a city affect far more people 4:52 Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming 4:56 But they have the means to adapt 4:59 Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places 5:03 They have a lot of amenities 5:05 A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world... 5:08 …wouldn’t necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world 5:12 But a city that hasn’t prepared for these sort of eventualities... 5:16 ...that might be a really nasty place The impact of prolonged droughts 5:20 So far, many developed cities have got off lightly... 5:24 ...but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately 5:29 Smallholders—small-scale farmers—are particularly vulnerable to climate change 5:35 And there are over 600 million around the world 5:38 Smallholders with farms under two hectares... 5:40 ...produce around a third of the global food supply 5:46 Central America’s “Dry Corridor”... 5:48 ...supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms 5:53 Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea... 5:56 ...the area is prone to droughts 6:08 Israel Ramírez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala 6:12 Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe 6:18 This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver 6:23 He depends on his crops of corn and beans 6:26 But they’re getting harder to grow 6:30 The surrounding mountains... 6:32 ...used to provide us with native food... 6:38 ...and now that isn’t an option anymore... 6:41 ...due to climate change and its effects 6:46 Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty 6:52 The impact of all of this for us... 6:59 ...malnutrition among children 7:03 We’ve lost a few 7:07 For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before 7:16 The plant dries up and can’t provide us... 7:19 ...with the necessary food provision 7:24 Severe droughts in Central America... 7:26 ...are now four times more likely than they were last century 7:30 Many families from here have gone to the States 7:37 The economic despair and debts... 7:44 ...have pushed many people from this community to do this journey 7:53 Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 7:59 Not all of this has been due to climate change 8:02 But longer droughts would force even more to move 8:05 In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region... 8:09 ...could drop by up to 14% 8:12 At 3°C, over a quarter of the world’s population... 8:16 ...could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year 8:19 Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding 8:24 But for some, too much water will be the problem 8:29 10% of the world’s population lives on a coastline... 8:32 ...that’s less than 10 metres above sea level 8:35 For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster 8:40 By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels 8:46 Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable... 8:49 ...with up to up to a third of the population displaced 8:54 And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives 9:04 You can see the graveyard there, it’s all under water now... 9:08 ...due to this rising sea level and climate change 9:15 The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea 9:19 Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear 9:24 Relatives’ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water 9:29 We have been asked by the government to relocate... 9:32 ...but no one wants to relocate... 9:34 ...because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea 9:39 This is the place we’ve been brought up in 9:41 ...it’s not easy to leave 9:44 Past attempts to build a seawall haven’t worked 9:48 But Barney sees building a new one as the village’s only hope 9:52 If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left 9:56 But if we don’t have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come... 10:01 ...maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded 10:05 Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods 10:11 And many more countries could suffer 10:14 The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries... 10:17 ...that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world 10:21 To escape, many will move… 10:24 …often, to urban areas Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures 10:27 Half the world’s population already lives in cities... 10:31 ...almost a third in slums 10:36 For them, a 3°C world could be deadly 10:40 Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change 10:44 But life could get even worse for her 10:47 I’m struggling a lot nowadays 10:49 The heat during the day is unbearable 10:52 Even late at night it doesn’t cool down 10:57 The heat is getting more intense every day 10:59 I mean, it’s going to get much worse 11:03 I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? 11:08 Dhaka is getting hotter 11:11 In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature... 11:13 ...has crept up by nearly half a degree 11:17 Days that approach 40°C are now being reported 11:20 And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise 11:26 A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity 11:30 Humans cool themselves by sweating… 11:32 But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%... 11:36 ...sweat doesn’t evaporate well 11:38 So people can’t cool down… 11:41 ...even if given unlimited shade and water 11:45 At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body can’t lose heat... 11:49 ...and so it gets hotter and hotter... 11:51 ...and the body is designed to work at a given temperature 11:53 And if it gets too hot inside, you will die 11:58 The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C... 12:02 ...around skin temperature 12:04 Dhaka will have a much higher chance... 12:05 ...of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures... 12:07 ...if global warming reaches 3°C 12:12 You can’t really adapt to that 12:14 You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you can’t work... 12:20 ...can’t do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year... 12:25 ...then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy 12:33 Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates... 12:37 ...have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures 12:40 More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf... 12:43 ...as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States... 12:47 ...could all get to this threshold by the end of the century 12:50 Climate modelling might show us the weather Increased migration and conflict 12:52 But it doesn’t show us its other effects on society 12:56 Established migration patterns could change 12:59 Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders 13:03 Within countries, more people will move to cities 13:07 In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year... 13:10 ...could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change 13:15 When people are displaced by climate... 13:18 …they may well go to cities... 13:19 ...because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already 13:25 A lot of people who can get to the developed world... 13:28 ...not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go 13:35 As migration around the world increases... 13:38 ...there could be more competition for fewer resources 13:42 Water—already a highly contested resource—will be a focal point 13:47 Turkey’s new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq 13:53 China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan 13:57 The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy 14:03 How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions... 14:08 ...in a 3°C world... 14:09 ...is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out 14:14 I think you’d have to be incredibly sanguine... 14:16 ...not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about... 14:19 ...in a 3°C world wouldn’t lead some places... 14:22 ...to the brink of societal collapse 14:25 Those lucky enough to escape unrest... Adaptation and mitigation are crucial 14:28 ...would still have to adapt to a radically different world 14:32 People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones... 14:37 ...is air conditioning 14:39 But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level... 14:42 ...I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture 14:47 There are physical things you can do, like seawalls 14:52 The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering... 14:57 ...doesn’t mean that it will eliminate suffering 15:00 Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet 15:06 Adaptation will only get the world so far 15:09 The best way to deal with a 3°C world... 15:12 ...is not to go to a 3°C world 15:14 And that’s why increasing efforts on mitigation are important 15:17 It’s why working towards negative emissions... 15:20 ...that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important 15:25 Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble 15:33 The scale of change needed... 15:35 ...and the slow progress of governments so far... 15:38 ...means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done 15:44 Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions... 15:48 ...are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 15:54 The need to act has never been clearer 15:57 There’s still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction... 16:02 ...rather than becoming fact

Figure 18-11 represents the amount of energy stored as organic material in each trophic level in an ecosystem. The pyramid shape of the diagram indicates the low percentage of energy transfer from one level to the next. On average, 10 percent of the total energy consumed in one trophic level is incor- porated into the organisms in the next. Why is the percentage of energy transfer so low? One reason is that some of the organisms in a trophic level escape being eaten. They eventually die and become food for decomposers, but the energy contained in their bodies does not pass to a higher trophic level. Even when an organism is eaten, some of the molecules in its body will be in a form that the consumer cannot break down and use. For example, a cougar cannot extract energy from the antlers, hooves, and hair of a deer. Also, the energy used by prey for cellu- lar respiration cannot be used by predators to synthesize new bio- mass. Finally, no transformation or transfer of energy is 100 percent efficient. Every time energy is transformed, such as during the reactions of metabolism, some energy is lost as heat. Limitations of Trophic Levels The low rate of energy transfer between trophic levels explains why ecosystems rarely contain more than a few trophic levels. Because only about 10 percent of the energy available at one trophic level is transferred to the next trophic level, there is not enough energy in the top trophic level to support more levels. Organisms at the lowest trophic level are usually much more abundant than organisms at the highest level. In Africa, for exam- ple, you will see about 1,000 zebras, gazelles, and other herbivores for every lion or leopard you see, and there are far more grasses and shrubs than there are herbivores. Higher trophic levels con- tain less energy, so, they can support fewer individuals.A population is a group of organisms that belong to the same species and live in a particular place at the same time. All of the bass living in a pond during a certain period of time make up a pop- ulation because they are isolated in the pond and do not interact with bass living in other ponds. The boundaries of a population may be imposed by a feature of the environment, such as a lake shore, or they can be arbitrarily chosen to simplify a study of the population. The humans shown in Figure 19-1 are part of the pop- ulation of a city. The properties of populations differ from those of individuals. An individual may be born, it may reproduce, or it may die. A population study focuses on a population as a whole—how many individuals are born, how many die, and so on. Population Size A population’s size is the number of individuals that the population contains. Size is a fundamental and important population property but can be difficult to measure directly. If a population is small and composed of immobile organisms, such as plants, its size can be determined simply by counting individuals. Often, though, individ- uals are too abundant, too widespread, or too mobile to be counted easily, and scientists must estimate the number of individuals in the population. Suppose that a scientist wants to know how many oak trees live in a 10 km2 patch of forest. Instead of searching the entire patch of forest and counting all the oak trees, the scientist could count the trees in a smaller section of the forest, such as a 1 km2 area. The scientist could then use this value to estimate the population of the larger area. SECTION 1 OBJECTIVES ● Describe the main properties that scientists measure when they study populations. ● Compare the three general patterns of population dispersion. ● Identify the measurements used to describe changing populations. ● Compare the three general types of survivorship curves. VOCABULARY population population density dispersion birth rate death rate life expectancy age structure survivorship curve FIGURE 19-1 A population can be widely distributed, as Earth’s human population is, or confined to a small area, as species of fish in a lake are. Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. 382 CHAPTER 19 If the small patch contains 25 oaks, an area 10 times larger would likely contain 10 times as many oak trees. A similar kind of sampling technique might be used to estimate the size of the pop- ulation shown in Figure 19-2. To use this kind of estimate, the sci- entist must assume that the distribution of individuals in the entire population is the same as that in the sampled group. Estimates of population size are based on many such assumptions, so all esti- mates have the potential for error. Population Density Population density measures how crowded a population is. This measurement is always expressed as the number of individuals per unit of area or volume. For example, the population density of humans in the United States is about 30 people per square kilome- ter. Table 19-1 shows the population sizes and densities of humans in several countries in 2003. These estimates are calculated for the total land area. Some areas of a country may be sparsely popu- lated, while other areas are very densely populated. Dispersion A third population property is dispersion (di-SPUHR-zhuhn). Dispersion is the spatial distribution of individuals within the popu- lation. In a clumped distribution, individuals are clustered together. In a uniform distribution, individuals are separated by a fairly con- sistent distance. In a random distribution, each individual’s location is independent of the locations of other individuals in the popula- tion. Figure 19-3 illustrates the three possible patterns of dispersion. Clumped distributions often occur when resources such as food or living space are clumped. Clumped distributions may also occur because of a species’ social behavior, such as when animals gather into herds or flocks. Uniform distributions may result from social behavior in which individuals within the same habitat stay as far away from each other as possible. For example, a bird may locate its nest so as to maximize the distance from the nests of other birds. These migrating wildebeests in East Africa are too numerous and mobile to be counted. Scientists must use sampling methods at several locations to monitor changes in the population size of the animals. FIGURE 19-2 TABLE 19-1 Population Size and Density of Some Countries Population size Population density Country (in millions) (in individuals/km2) China 1,289 135 India 1,069 325 United States 292 30 Russia 146 8 Japan 128 337 Mexico 105 54 Kenya 32 54 Australia 20 3 dispersion from the Latin dis-, meaning “out,” and spargere, meaning “to scatter” Word Roots and Origins Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. POPULATIONS 383 The social interactions of birds called gannets, which are shown in Figure 19-3b, result in a uniform distribution. Each gannet chooses a small nesting area on the coast and defends it from other gannets. In this way, each gannet tries to maximize its distance from all of its neighbors, which causes a uniform distribution of individuals. Few populations are truly randomly dispersed. Rather, they show degrees of clumping or uniformity. The dispersion pattern of a population sometimes depends on the scale at which the popu- lation is observed. The gannets shown in Figure 19-3b are uni- formly distributed on a scale of a few meters. However, if the entire island on which the gannets live is observed, the distribution appears clumped because the birds live only near the shore. POPULATION DYNAMICS All populations are dynamic—they change in size and composition over time. To understand these changes, scientists must know more than the population’s size, density, and dispersion. One important measure is the birth rate, the number of births occur- ring in a period of time. In the United States, for example, there are about 4 million births per year. A second important measure is the death rate, or mortality rate, which is the number of deaths in a

Economic integration Population and GDP of ASEAN Countries Population and GDP of ASEAN CountriesThe countries of ASEAN vary widely in population size and income level, yet nonetheless have achieved a high level of economic integration. ASEAN is considered to be one the developing world’s most successful regional economic cooperation zones. Unlike its primary counterparts in the developed world, the European Union (EU) and the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), ASEAN has followed a more gradual and flexible approach to integration, accommodating the diversity of its member states. ASEAN has prioritized trade liberalization, sustainable development, and attracting foreign investment over deepening political integration or adopting a common currency. ASEAN’s economic integration efforts began with the creation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 1992, which successfully reduced tariffs between ASEAN’s first six members (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) to 0–5 percent by 2002. Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia were required to sign the AFTA agreement upon joining ASEAN. Today tariffs between ASEAN countries are close to zero. In 2007 the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint was signed in Singapore with the goal of achieving four objectives by 2015: (1) create a single market and production base, (2) become a highly competitive economic region, (3) promote equitable economic development within the region, and (4) fully integrate the region into the global economy. The AEC was implemented in 2015, although approximately 20 percent of measures toward achieving a single market remain in progress and have been deferred to a new deadline of 2025. The ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) was implemented in 2008, and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) was implemented in 2010. In 2020 ASEAN joined Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea in signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest trade agreement in history. Get Unlimited Access Try Britannica Premium for free and discover more. Significant challenges remain for ASEAN’s economic integration, including pervasive nontariff barriers, restrictive investment measures, and vast disparities in GDP per capita. Domestic issues such as political instability and corruption in member states exacerbate these challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic created severe economic disruption in sectors such as industrial production and tourism; nonetheless, ASEAN coordinated a regional response to align economic recovery strategies and maintain open trade routes. Ultimately, ASEAN has demonstrated an exemplary and ongoing commitment to strengthening cooperation and integration and maximizing the region’s economic potential.

hysical features of Southeast Asia The physiography of Southeast Asia has been formed to a large extent by the convergence of three of the Earth’s major crustal units: the Eurasian, Indian-Australian, and Pacific plates. The land has been subjected to a considerable amount of faulting, folding, uplifting, and volcanic activity over geologic time, and much of the region is mountainous. There are marked structural differences between the mainland and insular portions of the region. Mainland Southeast Asia The mainland is characterized by a series of generally north–south-trending mountain ranges separated by a number of major river valleys and their associated deltas. In many ways these ranges resemble ribs in a fan, where the interstices are deep trenches carved by the rivers. Although the mainland as a whole is similar in a structural sense, its various geologic components and the time periods of their orogenic (mountain-building) episodes differ. Much of the region has been affected by the gradual, continuing collision of the Indian subcontinent with the Eurasian Plate over roughly the past 50 million years, an event that—with diminishing intensity from west to east—has been responsible for deforming the land. Nonetheless, mainland Southeast Asia is relatively stable geologically, with no active or recently active volcanoes and, except in the northwest and north, little seismic activity. The ranges fan out southward from the southeastern corner of the Plateau of Tibet, where they are tightly spaced. A major rib of this system extends through the entire western margin of Myanmar (Burma); describing an elongated letter S, it consists of (from north to south) the Pātkai Range, Nāga Hills, Chin Hills, and Arakan Mountains. Farther to the south the same rib emerges from beneath the sea to become the Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India. Another major system extends along a straight north-south axis from eastern Myanmar east of the Salween River through northwestern Thailand to south of the Isthmus of Kra on the Malay Peninsula. It consists of a series of elongated blocks rather than one continuous ridge. The core of these blocks is granite, which has intruded into previously folded and faulted limestone and sandstone. The altitudes of the ranges diminish from above 8,000 feet (2,440 meters) on the Chinese border in the north to below 4,000 feet on the Isthmus of Kra, and the ranges are spread farther apart toward the south. The easternmost major mountain feature on the mainland is the Annamese Cordillera (Chaîne Annamitique) in Laos and Vietnam. In the portion between Laos and Vietnam, the chain forms a nearly straight spine of ranges from northwest to southeast, with a steep face rising from the South China Sea to the east and a more gradual slope to the west. The mountains thin out considerably south of Laos and become asymmetrical in form. The upland zone is characterized by a number of plateau remnants. The rather neat fanlike pattern of the mountain ranges is interrupted occasionally by several old blocks of strata that have been folded, faulted, and deeply dissected. These ancient massifs now form either low platforms or high plateaus. The westernmost of these, the Shan Plateau of eastern Myanmar, measures some 250 miles (400 km) from north to south and 75 miles from east to west and has an average elevation of about 3,000 feet. The largest of these features is the Korat Plateau in eastern Thailand and west-central Laos. This area actually is more of a low platform, which on average is only a few hundred feet above the floodplains of the surrounding rivers. It consists of a string of hills that direct surface drainage eastward to the Mekong River. The hills range in elevation from 500 to 2,000 feet, with the highest altitudes occurring near the southwestern rim. The broad river valleys between the uplands and the even wider deltas at the southernmost points contain most of the mainland’s lowland areas. These regions generally are covered with alluvial sediments that support much of the mainland’s cultivation and, in turn, most of its population centers. The most extensive coastal lowland is the lower Mekong basin, which encompasses most of Cambodia and southern Vietnam. The Cambodian portion is a broad, bowl-shaped area lying just above sea level, with numerous hill outcrops jutting above the landscape; at its center is a large freshwater lake, the Tonle Sap. To the south the river’s vast, flat delta occupies the entire southern tip of Vietnam. Outside the river deltas, the coastal lowlands are little more than narrow strips between the mountains and the sea, except around the southern half of the Malay Peninsula. The Malay Peninsula stretches south for some 900 miles from the head of the Gulf of Thailand (Siam) to Singapore and thus extends the mainland into insular Southeast Asia. The narrowest point, the Isthmus of Kra (about 40 miles wide), also roughly divides the peninsula into two parts: the long linear mountain ranges of the northern part described above give way just south of the isthmus to blocks of short, parallel ranges aligned north-south, so that the southern portion trends to the southeast and becomes much wider. In areas such as the west coast between southern Thailand and northwestern Malaysia, distinctive karst-limestone landscapes have developed. Peaks on the peninsula range from 5,000 to 7,000 feet in elevation.

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