CONDITIONALS ZERO,1,2,3

Make a multiple choice quiz for my year 8 science students based on the science in this transcript from a video: 3°C 0:04 It can be the difference between snow and sleet 0:08 Wearing a jacket or not 0:11 In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant 0:15 But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic 0:20 Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 0:25 3°C of warming is really disastrous 0:28 The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there 0:32 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C 0:40 This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with 0:46 Children born today... 0:47 ...are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents 0:52 If global temperatures do rise by 3°C... 0:55 ...what would their world look like? Climate change is already having devastating effects 1:03 Rising sea levels 1:05 Desertification 1:07 Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world 1:11 While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction... 1:14 ...this film will show the scenario we all face... 1:17 ...unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels 1:30 In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear 1:35 The slums of Bangladesh’s capital are filling up with climate migrants 1:41 Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh 1:46 There, like many other parts of the country... 1:49 ...rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers... 1:53 ...are washing away people’s homes 1:56 Many, like her, have lost everything 2:00 Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land 2:03 There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house 2:08 There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home 2:12 We used to eat the fruit from our own trees 2:18 I can’t eat them now because they don't exist anymore 2:21 Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka 2:26 Life was much better back home 2:29 It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable 2:33 We didn’t have the time to save anything at all 2:38 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minara’s life 2:45 It’s one of the reasons why so many migrants like her... 2:47 ...are moving to the city each year... 2:50 ...nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate 2:53 And climate models show there could be much worse to come How climate modelling works 3:02 Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj... 3:04 ...has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios... 3:08 ...for the United Nations 3:10 The models we use to carry out this exercise... 3:13 ...really represent the state of the art... 3:15 ...of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading 3:19 Joeri’s projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world 3:26 Here this is the 3°C level... 3:28 ...and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies... 3:32 ...we would hit 3°C by the end of the century 3:36 This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at 3:40 Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept 3:44 The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept... 3:47 ...and net-zero targets are met 3:50 Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century... 3:54 ...there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead 3:59 One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance... 4:03 ...that the plane will crash Nowhere is safe from global warming 4:07 A rise of 3°C would affect everyone 4:10 Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldn’t be immune to the consequences 4:15 European capitals like Paris and Berlin... 4:18 ...would bake under more extreme heatwaves 4:22 Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate 4:27 In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events 4:33 Cities are hotter than the places around them... 4:36 ...they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding 4:39 And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you can’t in the countryside 4:46 And because of their denser populations... 4:49 ...disasters in a city affect far more people 4:52 Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming 4:56 But they have the means to adapt 4:59 Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places 5:03 They have a lot of amenities 5:05 A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world... 5:08 …wouldn’t necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world 5:12 But a city that hasn’t prepared for these sort of eventualities... 5:16 ...that might be a really nasty place The impact of prolonged droughts 5:20 So far, many developed cities have got off lightly... 5:24 ...but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately 5:29 Smallholders—small-scale farmers—are particularly vulnerable to climate change 5:35 And there are over 600 million around the world 5:38 Smallholders with farms under two hectares... 5:40 ...produce around a third of the global food supply 5:46 Central America’s “Dry Corridor”... 5:48 ...supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms 5:53 Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea... 5:56 ...the area is prone to droughts 6:08 Israel Ramírez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala 6:12 Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe 6:18 This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver 6:23 He depends on his crops of corn and beans 6:26 But they’re getting harder to grow 6:30 The surrounding mountains... 6:32 ...used to provide us with native food... 6:38 ...and now that isn’t an option anymore... 6:41 ...due to climate change and its effects 6:46 Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty 6:52 The impact of all of this for us... 6:59 ...malnutrition among children 7:03 We’ve lost a few 7:07 For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before 7:16 The plant dries up and can’t provide us... 7:19 ...with the necessary food provision 7:24 Severe droughts in Central America... 7:26 ...are now four times more likely than they were last century 7:30 Many families from here have gone to the States 7:37 The economic despair and debts... 7:44 ...have pushed many people from this community to do this journey 7:53 Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 7:59 Not all of this has been due to climate change 8:02 But longer droughts would force even more to move 8:05 In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region... 8:09 ...could drop by up to 14% 8:12 At 3°C, over a quarter of the world’s population... 8:16 ...could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year 8:19 Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding 8:24 But for some, too much water will be the problem 8:29 10% of the world’s population lives on a coastline... 8:32 ...that’s less than 10 metres above sea level 8:35 For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster 8:40 By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels 8:46 Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable... 8:49 ...with up to up to a third of the population displaced 8:54 And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives 9:04 You can see the graveyard there, it’s all under water now... 9:08 ...due to this rising sea level and climate change 9:15 The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea 9:19 Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear 9:24 Relatives’ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water 9:29 We have been asked by the government to relocate... 9:32 ...but no one wants to relocate... 9:34 ...because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea 9:39 This is the place we’ve been brought up in 9:41 ...it’s not easy to leave 9:44 Past attempts to build a seawall haven’t worked 9:48 But Barney sees building a new one as the village’s only hope 9:52 If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left 9:56 But if we don’t have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come... 10:01 ...maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded 10:05 Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods 10:11 And many more countries could suffer 10:14 The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries... 10:17 ...that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world 10:21 To escape, many will move… 10:24 …often, to urban areas Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures 10:27 Half the world’s population already lives in cities... 10:31 ...almost a third in slums 10:36 For them, a 3°C world could be deadly 10:40 Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change 10:44 But life could get even worse for her 10:47 I’m struggling a lot nowadays 10:49 The heat during the day is unbearable 10:52 Even late at night it doesn’t cool down 10:57 The heat is getting more intense every day 10:59 I mean, it’s going to get much worse 11:03 I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? 11:08 Dhaka is getting hotter 11:11 In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature... 11:13 ...has crept up by nearly half a degree 11:17 Days that approach 40°C are now being reported 11:20 And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise 11:26 A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity 11:30 Humans cool themselves by sweating… 11:32 But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%... 11:36 ...sweat doesn’t evaporate well 11:38 So people can’t cool down… 11:41 ...even if given unlimited shade and water 11:45 At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body can’t lose heat... 11:49 ...and so it gets hotter and hotter... 11:51 ...and the body is designed to work at a given temperature 11:53 And if it gets too hot inside, you will die 11:58 The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C... 12:02 ...around skin temperature 12:04 Dhaka will have a much higher chance... 12:05 ...of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures... 12:07 ...if global warming reaches 3°C 12:12 You can’t really adapt to that 12:14 You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you can’t work... 12:20 ...can’t do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year... 12:25 ...then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy 12:33 Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates... 12:37 ...have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures 12:40 More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf... 12:43 ...as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States... 12:47 ...could all get to this threshold by the end of the century 12:50 Climate modelling might show us the weather Increased migration and conflict 12:52 But it doesn’t show us its other effects on society 12:56 Established migration patterns could change 12:59 Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders 13:03 Within countries, more people will move to cities 13:07 In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year... 13:10 ...could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change 13:15 When people are displaced by climate... 13:18 …they may well go to cities... 13:19 ...because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already 13:25 A lot of people who can get to the developed world... 13:28 ...not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go 13:35 As migration around the world increases... 13:38 ...there could be more competition for fewer resources 13:42 Water—already a highly contested resource—will be a focal point 13:47 Turkey’s new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq 13:53 China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan 13:57 The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy 14:03 How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions... 14:08 ...in a 3°C world... 14:09 ...is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out 14:14 I think you’d have to be incredibly sanguine... 14:16 ...not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about... 14:19 ...in a 3°C world wouldn’t lead some places... 14:22 ...to the brink of societal collapse 14:25 Those lucky enough to escape unrest... Adaptation and mitigation are crucial 14:28 ...would still have to adapt to a radically different world 14:32 People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones... 14:37 ...is air conditioning 14:39 But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level... 14:42 ...I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture 14:47 There are physical things you can do, like seawalls 14:52 The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering... 14:57 ...doesn’t mean that it will eliminate suffering 15:00 Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet 15:06 Adaptation will only get the world so far 15:09 The best way to deal with a 3°C world... 15:12 ...is not to go to a 3°C world 15:14 And that’s why increasing efforts on mitigation are important 15:17 It’s why working towards negative emissions... 15:20 ...that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important 15:25 Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble 15:33 The scale of change needed... 15:35 ...and the slow progress of governments so far... 15:38 ...means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done 15:44 Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions... 15:48 ...are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 15:54 The need to act has never been clearer 15:57 There’s still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction... 16:02 ...rather than becoming fact

Covalent Molecules and Compounds Just as an atom is the simplest unit that has the fundamental chemical properties of an element, a molecule is the simplest unit that has the fundamental chemical properties of a covalent compound. Some pure elements exist as covalent molecules. Hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, and the halogens occur naturally as the diatomic (“two atoms”) molecules H2, N2, O2, F2, Cl2, Br2, and I2 (part (a) in Figure 3.1.1). Similarly, a few pure elements exist as polyatomic (“many atoms”) molecules, such as elemental phosphorus and sulfur, which occur as P4 and S8 (part (b) in Figure 3.1.1). Each covalent compound is represented by a molecular formula, which gives the atomic symbol for each component element, in a prescribed order, accompanied by a subscript indicating the number of atoms of that element in the molecule. The subscript is written only if the number of atoms is greater than 1. For example, water, with two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom per molecule, is written as H2O. Similarly, carbon dioxide, which contains one carbon atom and two oxygen atoms in each molecule, is written as CO2. Covalent compounds that predominantly contain carbon and hydrogen are called organic compounds. The convention for representing the formulas of organic compounds is to write carbon first, followed by hydrogen and then any other elements in alphabetical order (e.g., CH4O is methyl alcohol, a fuel). Compounds that consist primarily of elements other than carbon and hydrogen are called inorganic compounds; they include both covalent and ionic compounds. In inorganic compounds, the component elements are listed beginning with the one farthest to the left in the periodic table, as in CO2 or SF6. Those in the same group are listed beginning with the lower element and working up, as in ClF. By convention, however, when an inorganic compound contains both hydrogen and an element from groups 13–15, hydrogen is usually listed last in the formula. Examples are ammonia (NH3) and silane (SiH4). Compounds such as water, whose compositions were established long before this convention was adopted, are always written with hydrogen first: Water is always written as H2O, not OH2. The conventions for inorganic acids, such as hydrochloric acid (HCl) and sulfuric acid (H2SO4), are described elswhere. Note! For organic compounds: write C first, then H, and then the other elements in alphabetical order. For molecular inorganic compounds: start with the element at far left in the periodic table; list elements in same group beginning with the lower element and working up. Write the molecular formula of each compound. a. The phosphorus-sulfur compound that is responsible for the ignition of so-called strike anywhere matches has 4 phosphorus atoms and 3 sulfur atoms per molecule. b. Ethyl alcohol, the alcohol of alcoholic beverages, has 1 oxygen atom, 2 carbon atoms, and 6 hydrogen atoms per molecule. c. Freon-11, once widely used in automobile air conditioners and implicated in damage to the ozone layer, has 1 carbon atom, 3 chlorine atoms, and 1 fluorine atom per molecule. Solution: a. • A The molecule has 4 phosphorus atoms and 3 sulfur atoms. Because the compound does not contain mostly carbon and hydrogen, it is inorganic. • B Phosphorus is in group 15, and sulfur is in group 16. Because phosphorus is to the left of sulfur, it is written first. • C Writing the number of each kind of atom as a right-hand subscript gives P4S3 as the molecular formula. b. • A Ethyl alcohol contains predominantly carbon and hydrogen, so it is an organic compound. • B The formula for an organic compound is written with the number of carbon atoms first, the number of hydrogen atoms next, and the other atoms in alphabetical order: CHO. • C Adding subscripts gives the molecular formula C2H6O. c. • A Freon-11 contains carbon, chlorine, and fluorine. It can be viewed as either an inorganic compound or an organic compound (in which fluorine has replaced hydrogen). The formula for Freon-11 can therefore be written using either of the two conventions. • B According to the convention for inorganic compounds, carbon is written first because it is farther left in the periodic table. Fluorine and chlorine are in the same group, so they are listed beginning with the lower element and working up: CClF. Adding subscripts gives the molecular formula CCl3F. • C We obtain the same formula for Freon-11 using the convention for organic compounds. The number of carbon atoms is written first, followed by the number of hydrogen atoms (zero) and then the other elements in alphabetical order, also giving CCl3F. Write the molecular formula for each compound. a. Nitrous oxide, also called “laughing gas,” has 2 nitrogen atoms and 1 oxygen atom per molecule. Nitrous oxide is used as a mild anesthetic for minor surgery and as the propellant in cans of whipped cream. b. Sucrose, also known as cane sugar, has 12 carbon atoms, 11 oxygen atoms, and 22 hydrogen atoms. c. Sulfur hexafluoride, a gas used to pressurize “unpressurized” tennis balls and as a coolant in nuclear reactors, has 6 fluorine atoms and 1 sulfur atom per molecule. Answer: a. N2O b. C12H22O11 c. SF6. Ionic Compounds The substances described in the preceding discussion are composed of molecules that are electrically neutral; that is, the number of positively-charged protons in the nucleus is equal to the number of negatively-charged electrons. In contrast, ions are atoms or assemblies of atoms that have a net electrical charge. Ions that contain fewer electrons than protons have a net positive charge and are called cations. Conversely, ions that contain more electrons than protons have a net negative charge and are called anions. Ionic compounds contain both cations and anions in a ratio that results in no net electrical charge. Note! Ionic compounds contain both cations and anions in a ratio that results in zero electrical charge.An ionic compound that contains only two elements, one present as a cation and one as an anion, is called a binary ionic compound. One example is MgCl2, a coagulant used in the preparation of tofu from soybeans. For binary ionic compounds, the subscripts in the empirical formula can also be obtained by crossing charges: use the absolute value of the charge on one ion as the subscript for the other ion. This method is shown schematically as follows: Crossing charges. One method for obtaining subscripts in the empirical formula is by crossing charges. When crossing charges, it is sometimes necessary to reduce the subscripts to their simplest ratio to write the empirical formula. Consider, for example, the compound formed by Mg2+ and O2−. Using the absolute values of the charges on the ions as subscripts gives the formula Mg2O2:Polyatomic Ions Polyatomic ions are groups of atoms that bear net electrical charges, although the atoms in a polyatomic ion are held together by the same covalent bonds that hold atoms together in molecules. Just as there are many more kinds of molecules than simple elements, there are many more kinds of polyatomic ions than monatomic ions. Two examples of polyatomic cations are the ammonium (NH4+) and the methylammonium (CH3NH3+) ions. P. The method used to predict the empirical formulas for ionic compounds that contain monatomic ions can also be used for compounds that contain polyatomic ions. The overall charge on the cations must balance the overall charge on the anions in the formula unit. Thus, K+ and NO3− ions combine in a 1:1 ratio to form KNO3 (potassium nitrate or saltpeter), a major ingredient in black gunpowder. Similarly, Ca2+ and SO42− form CaSO4 (calcium sulfate), which combines with varying amounts of water to form gypsum and plaster of Paris. The polyatomic ions NH4+ and NO3− form NH4NO3 (ammonium nitrate), a widely used fertilizer and, in the wrong hands, an explosive. One example of a compound in which the ions have charges of different magnitudes is calcium phosphate, which is composed of Ca2+ and PO43− ions; it is a major component of bones. The compound is electrically neutral because the ions combine in a ratio of three Ca2+ ions [3(+2) = +6] for every two ions [2(−3) = −6], giving an empirical formula of Ca3(PO4)2; the parentheses around PO4 in the empirical formula indicate that it is a polyatomic ion. Writing the formula for calcium phosphate as Ca3P2O8 gives the correct number of each atom in the formula unit, but it obscures the fact that the compound contains readily identifiable PO43− ions.Summary • There are two fundamentally different kinds of chemical bonds (covalent and ionic) that cause substances to have very different properties. • The composition of a compound is represented by an empirical or molecular formula, each consisting of at least one formula unit.Contributors The atoms in chemical compounds are held together by attractive electrostatic interactions known as chemical bonds. Ionic compounds contain positively and negatively charged ions in a ratio that results in an overall charge of zero. The ions are held together in a regular spatial arrangement by electrostatic forces. Most covalent compounds consist of molecules, groups of atoms in which one or more pairs of electrons are shared by at least two atoms to form a covalent bond. The atoms in molecules are held together by the electrostatic attraction between the positively charged nuclei of the bonded atoms and the negatively charged electrons shared by the nuclei. The molecular formula of a covalent compound gives the types and numbers of atoms present. Compounds that contain predominantly carbon and hydrogen are called organic compounds, whereas compounds that consist primarily of elements other than carbon and hydrogen are inorganic compounds. Diatomic molecules contain two atoms, and polyatomic molecules contain more than two. A structural formula indicates the composition and approximate structure and shape of a molecule. Single bonds, double bonds, and triple bonds are covalent bonds in which one, two, and three pairs of electrons, respectively, are shared between two bonded atoms. Atoms or groups of atoms that possess a net electrical charge are called ions; they can have either a positive charge (cations) or a negative charge (anions). Ions can consist of one atom (monatomic ions) or several (polyatomic ions). The charges on monatomic ions of most main group elements can be predicted from the location of the element in the periodic table. Ionic compounds usually form hard crystalline solids with high melting points. Covalent molecular compounds, in contrast, consist of discrete molecules held together by weak intermolecular forces and can be gases, liquids, or solids at room temperature and pressure. An empirical formula gives the relative numbers of atoms of the elements in a compound, reduced to the lowest whole numbers. The formula unit is the absolute grouping represented by the empirical formula of a compound, either ionic or covalent. Empirical formulas are particularly useful for describing the composition of ionic compounds, which do not contain readily identifiable molecules. Some ionic compounds occur as hydrates, which contain specific ratios of loosely bound water molecules called waters of hydration.

Measuring the Effectiveness of police strategies and operations Clearance rates Def: The proportion of incidents known to the police that result in teh identification of a suspect Crime Displacement Def: relocation-due to the effective crime prevention, crime response initiates criminal activity from one local to another Professional Model of Policing Model of police work, reactive, incident driven and centred on random patrol Three Rs: random patrol, rapid response and reactive investigation Community policing Def: policing centred on police-community partnership and problem-solving The three ps: prevention, problem solving and partnership with the proactive role Community-based strategic policing Def: The model incorporates community policing with prevention, crime response and crime attack approaches Community engagement, police services strategic in their policies and operations Crime Analytics Sophisticated programs, and crime maps, provide intelligence to police officers in patrol and investigative units Intelligence-led policing: guided by collection, and analysis of information informs police decision-making Compstat: Increase effectiveness, and efficiency of police service while holding police personnel accountable for crime reduction Predictive policing: statistical analysis, identify time and location likely to occur Limited analytical capacity and not able to provide their officers with real-time information Biased policing certain areas, or persons, being identified as important for police attention in predictive policing How Predictive Policing Software Works The Police and the community Public Attitudes toward and Confidence in the police Community-based strategic policing: Recruitment, and deployment of volunteers in community police stations, storefronts Foot and bike patrols Team policing Restorative Justice Approaches Alternative for addressing, and resolving crime, needs of victims, offenders and the community Victim offender meditation Circle sentencing Community holistic healing programss Family group conferences Crime Prevention and Response Strategies Crime Prevention progemas Aimed at reducing crime, generating community involvement and heightening citizens; perceptions of safety Primary crime prevention programs opportunities for criminal offences and alter those conditions Secondary crime prevention programs focus on areas that produce crime and disorder Tertiary crime prevention programs are designed to prevent youth and adults from reoffending The Broken Windows Approach If minor crimes are left unaddressed in an environment, more serious crimes will emerge (originated in New York City in the 1980’s) “The exictsnce of unchecked and uncontrolled mirror incivilites in a neighbourhood- for example, panhandling, public drunkenness, vandalism and graffiti-produces an atmosphere conducive to more serious crime.” R.H. Burke Zero tolerance policing Zero tolerance policing: Strict order maintenance approach- specific area, coupled with high police visibility and presence Quality of life policing: Increased police visibility improves conditions in an area by targeting disruptive and annoying behaviour Problem Oritented policing (POP) Strategy, the idea that police should address teh cause of recurrent crime and disorder Root causes of recurring problems Solutions to problems Collabortaion with community SARA (scanning, analysis, response and assessment) problem-solving model helps officers identify, and respond to problems with the assistance of agencies, organizations, community groups The Police and Vulnerable/ At risk groups Persons with Mental Illness Patrol officers encountering more and more persons with mental illness (PwMi) Number of these end trragically Number of incidents increased significantly following deinstitutionalization of the mentally ill - in 1960 and 1970 De facto (in fact) mental health workers, first responders Crisis intervention training (CIT) Assertive outreach teams Assertive community treatment (ACT) teams Indigenouse, Vulnerable, and Marginalized women Sexual assault one of most underreported crimed. 1 in 20 incidents report to police. Many Women Do not want to deal with police Believe police would not take allegation seriously Language, cultural barriers Distrust the police Fear repercussions Missing and Murdered Indigenous women Canada, unknown number of missing and murdered indigenous women 2016, federal government announced National inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigennouse women and girls Three goals of MMIWG 1. Finding the truth 2. Honouring the truth 3. Giving life to the truth as a path of healing

Why and How Managers Plan Importance of planning The planing process Benefits of planning Planning and time management Types of PLans used by managers Long term and short term plans Strageic and tactical plans Operational plans Planning Tools and Techiqunes Forecasting Contrigency planning Scenario planning Benchmaking Use of staff planners Implementing Plans to Achive Results Goal setting Goal management Goal alignment Participation and involvement Planning Def: The process of setting objectives and determining how best to accomplish them Planning at Eaton Corporation “Making the hard decision before events force them upon you, an anticipating the future needs of the market before the demand asset itself Objectives and goals Identifity the specific results or desired outcomes that one intends to achieve Plan Def: A statement of action steps to be taken in order to accomplish the objectives (goals) Steps in the planning process: Define your objectives Determine where you stand vis-a-vis objectives Develpo premises reagrdsing future conditions Analyze alternatives and make a plan Implement the plan and evaluate results What are the benefits of planning Improves focus and flexibility Imporves action orteitation Imporves coordination and control Imporves time management Time Managment Personal time management tips Do say “no” to request that distract you form what you should be doing Dont get bogged down inn details that can be addressed later Do screen telephone calls, emails and meeting request Dont let drop in visitors, text messaging use up your time Do prioritize your important and urgent work Dont become calendar bound by letting other control your schedule Do follow priorities; do most important and urgent work first Some 77% of mangers in one survey said that digital age has increased th number of decisions they have to make 43% said there was less time available to make these decisions Types of plans used by Managers What is teh time horizon Long term vs Short term Long term Look three or more years into teh future Short term plans Typically cover one year or less However: the increasing environmental complexity and dynamism of recent years has severely tested the concept of “long-term” planning Plans are subject to frequent revisions Most executives would likely agree that these complexities adn uncertainties challenge how er actually go about planning and how far ahead we can really plan At the very least we can conclude that there is a lot less permanency to long term plans today and that tey are subject to frequent revision Managment reaeracher Eillot Jaques believes tha people vary in their capability to think with different time horizons Types of Plans used by Managers (3 of 5) Strategic plans Set broad, comprehensive and linger term action directions for teh entire organization or major division Vision Clarifies purpose of the organization and what it hopes to be on the future Typical plans Specify how the organizations resources are used to implement strategy Tactical plans in business often take the form of functional plans Functional plans Incidate how different component within the organiztion will help accompnlish the overall strategy Production plans Finacial plans Facilites Plans Logisitc plans Marketing plans Human Resource Plans Operation plans Describe short-term activities to implement strategic plans Policies: Are standing plans that communicate guidelines for decisions Ex: Policies on office romances: The media is quick to report when a top executive or public figures runs into trouble over an office affair. Are there ant policies on office romances? Employer polices on office raltioshiis vary. One survey find teh following: 24% prohibit relationships among employees in the same department 13% prohibit relationships among employees who have the smae supervisor 80% prohibit relationships between supervisors and subordinates 5% have no restrictions on office romances Procedures: Are rules that describe actions to be taken in specific situations Budgets: are single use plans that commit resources to projects or activities Zero based budgets: allocate resources as if each budget were brand new There is no guarantee that any past funding will be renwer. All propsales, old and new, must compete for available funds at teh start of each new budget cycle Forcasting Attempts to predict the future Qualitaive forecasting uses expert opinions Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statiscal aanylsis of historical data dna surveys Contingency planning Identify alternative course of action to take when things go wrong Anticipate changing conditions Contain trigger points to indicate when to activate plan (or a specific course of action) Scenario planning A long term version of contingency planning Identifying alternative future scenarios Plans made for each future scenario Increases organizations flexibility and preparation for future shocks Benchmarking Use of external and internal comparisons to better evaluate current performance Adopting best practices: things people adn organization do that lead to superior performance Staff Planners Experts who assist in all steps of the planning process They help bring focus and expertise to a wide variety of planning tasks Important: Communication between staff planers landline managers is essential for teh success of teh planning process Goal Setting - Always set SMART goal The solution: Goal Aligment Between Team Leader and Team Member Jonintly plan: Set objectives, set standards, choose actions Individually acy: Perform tasks (member), provide support (leader) Jointly control: Review results, discuss implications, renew cycle x4 Collective effort and commitment Participatroy planning Includes in all planning steps that people who will be affected by the plans adn askedd to help implement them Unloacks motivational potential of goal setting Management by objective (MBO) promotes participation Participation increases understanding and acceptance of plan and commitment to success Participatory planning - Number of people involved in teh decision making process Amazon is intensely focused on what it does. It believes in creating tight single-threaded teams, also known as “2 pizza team.” Data and Decision Making What are some of the important competencies managers must have today? Delegate Marketing and technology Manager must have Technological competency Ability to understand new technologies and to use them to their best advantage Information competency Ability to locate, gather, organize and display information for decision-making and problem solving Analytical competency Ability to evaluate and analyze information to make actual decisions and solve real problems What is the difference between Data and Information Data Raw facts and observation Information Data made useful and meaningful for decision-making Important concepts Big data Exists in huge quantities and is difficult to process without sophisticated mathematical and analytical techniques Data production today Bernard Marr is an internationally best-selling author. He helps organizations improve their business performance, use data more intelligently Data mining The process of analyzing data to produce useful information for decision-makers Management Analytics The systematic evaluation and analysis of data to make informed decision Information drives management Bad Data Refers to information that can be erroneous, misleading, and without general formatting The challenge: Can er use the data that is available in the “Big Data” Needs to be valid Can not trust everything out there Being ethical Look at the trends Data is structured and unstructured Data BIg Data = Structured + Unstructured Information Drive Management decision making What are the characteristics of useful information Easy to access If its credible Accurate Characteristics of useful information: Timely High quality Complete Relevant Understandable What about bad data It's not credible Miss information If it is not structured/ organized Bias based on opinions Confusing If its updated Bad data Refers to information that can be erroneous miss What are some examples of Management information system Business intelligence -BI Information systems to extract and report data in organized ways that are useful to decision-makers Executive dashboards Visually update and display key performance metrics (or Key Performance Indicators -KPIs) and information on a real-time basis Information needs in organization External Environment Information exchanges with the external environment Gather intelligence information Provide public information Information needs within the organizations (internal Enviroement) Information exchange within the organization Facilitate decision making Facilitate problem-solving Managers as information processors Continually gather, share and receive information Now as much electronic as it is face-to-face Always on, always connected How many people telecommute at least once a week 70% of people globally work remotely at least once a week, Work at home after covid 19 our forecast Our best estimate it that 25-30% of the workforce will be working form home multiple days a week by the end of 2021 As of 2023, 12.7% of full time employees work from home, while 28.2% work a hybrid model Managers as problem solvers Problem-solving The process of identifying a discrepancy between actual and desired performance and taking action to resolve it Ishikawa Fishbone diagram To identify the cause of problems Decision A choice among possible alternative courses of action Performance threat Something is wrong or has the potential to go wrong Performance opportunity The situation offers the chance for a better future if the right steps are taken Problem-solving approaches or style - from textbook Problem avoiders Inactive in information gathering and solving problems Problem seekers Proactive in anticipation of problems and opportunities and taking appropriate action to gain an advantage Problem solvers Reactive in gathering information and solving problem Managers - can approach problems in a systematic or intuitive manner Systematic thinking approaches problem in rational, step-by-step and analytical fashion Intuitive thinking approaches problems in a flexible and spontaneous fashion Multidimensional thinking- applies both intuitive and systematic thinking Managers face structured and unstructured problems Structure problems Are ones that are familiar, straight forward, and clear with respect to information needs Program decisions apply solutions that are readily available from past experiences to solve structured problems Know how to solve them Familiar Know what we are dealing with Unstructured problems Are ones that are full of ambiguities and information deficiencies Nonprogrammed decisions apply a specific solution to meet the demands of a unique problem Commonly faced by higher-level management Crisis decision making A crisis involves an unexpected problem that can lead to disaster if not resolved quickly and appropriately Ruled for crisis management Figure out what is going on Remember that speed matters Remember that slow counts, too Respect the danger of the unfamiliar Value the skeptic Be ready to “fight fire with fire” Managers make decisions with various amounts of information Certain environment Offers complete information on possible action alternatives and their consequences Risk environment Lacks complete information but offers probabilities of the likely outcomes for possible action alternatives Uncertain environment Lacks so much information that it is difficult to assign probabilities to the likely outcomes of alternative Ex: Certain and uncertain environments: The worldwide Governance Indicators for over 200 countries, comparing distinct environments (Canada-Brazil) Step 1-Identify and define the problem Focuses on information gathering information processing and deliberation Decision objectives should be established What are some common mistakes in definding problems? Common mistakes in defining problems Defining the problem too broadly or too narrowly Focusing on symptoms instead of causes Choosing the wrong problem to deal with Step 2- Generate and Evaluate Alternative Courses of Action Potential solutions are formulated and more information is gathered, data are analyzed, the advantages and disadvantages of alternative solutions are identified Common mistakes: Abandoning the search for alternatives too quickly Step 3- Decide on a preferred course of Action Two different approaches Behavioural model leads to satisficing decisions Classical model les to optimising decisions Behavioural Model Rationality is bounded because: There are limits our thinks capacity Available information (incomplete) Time constraints Step 4-Implement the decision Involves taking action to make sure the solution decided upon becomes a reality Managers need to have the willingness and ability to implement action plans Problems: Lack of participation error should be avoided Step 5 - Evaluate Results Involves comparing actual and desired results The positive and negative consequences of the chosen course of action should be examined If actual results fall short desire results, the manager returns to earlier steps in the decision-making process At all steps, check ethical reasoning Ask these spotlight questions Utility Does teh decision satisfy all constituents or stakeholders Rights Does the description respect the rights and duties of everyone? Justice Is the decision consistent with the canons of justice Caring Is the decision consistent with my responsibilities to care? Issues in decision-making How do errors happen? Heuristics: are strategies for simplifying decision-making Availability Bias: Bases a decision on recent information or events Representativeness bias: Bases a decision on similarity to other situations Anchoring and Adjustment Bias: Bases a decision on incremental adjustment from a prior decision point Framing error: Tring to solve a problem in the context perceived, positive or negative Confirmation Error: Focusing on information that confirms a decision already made Escalating commitment: Continuing a course of action even though it is not working Creative Decision making Creativity is the generation of a novel idea or unique approach that solves a problem or crafts an opportunity Big C: Creativity occurs when extraordinary things are done by exceptional people Little C: Creativity occurs when average people come up with unique ways to deal with daily events and situations The three types of situational creativity drivers Chapter review What are objectives and goals? The specific results or desired outcomes What are the 5 characteristics of great (SMART) goals? Forecasting - Attempts Qualitative forecasting uses options Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statistical analysis of historical data and surveys Scenarios-Oracle’s crystal ball combines qualitative and quantitative methods

QUIZIZZ ZERO CONDITIONAL 12

6.24-zero-and-first-conditionals-cau-dieu-kien-loai-0-cau-dieu-kien-loai-1

Conditionals: Zero and First

Related quizzes

Related quizzes