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La Isla de Pascua This 64-square mile island off Chile’s west coast goes by many names. Its English name is Easter Island, marking the day in 1722 when it was discovered by a European. In Spanish, it is called Isla de Pascua. The Rapa Nui, its first inhabitants, called it “The Navel of the World.” Experts do not agree on the history of Easter Island. It is unclear where the first people came from or when they arrived. Many people believe they came from neighboring Polynesia around AD 300. This culture built 900 enormous stone statues for which the island is famous. The statues are known as moai. Most of the moai are made of volcanic tuff. Tuff is a soft rock made from the ash that is forced out during a volcanic eruption. It is easier to carve than hard stones like marble, but it is not ideal for carving small details. The moai are considered megaliths (large stones that form prehistoric monuments). They stand up to 33 feet high when on their ceremonial platform (the average height is about 13 feet), and they weigh up to 82 tons. They usually have a trunk (body), inset arms, and an exaggerated head with angular edges. The head of each moai takes up about one-third of the total figure. It all shows that the people who created them could engineer monumental structures. Many moai stand with their backs to the sea. They watch the island like protective markers. Some low-relief carvings of religious deities were added to the backs of the moai at a later date. Experts are still trying to understand how they were carved and moved, and what they might mean. Chile took control of the island in 1888. At that time, its population was less than 200. The government used it for grazing livestock. Today, the mystery of Easter Island makes it a popular tourist spot. Valparaíso Valparaíso is a colorful blend of old and new traditions in Chile. This port city is an interesting example of daily life in Chile. Before the Panama Canal was opened in 1914, all ships traveling east to west had to pass all the way around South America. Valparaíso was ideally positioned as a stopping point in the Southern Pacific. Valparaíso has a long history of playing host to a large array of cultures and ideas. The city was known around the world as a place that embraced learning and new ideas. Pablo Neruda had a home in Valparaíso in the 1920s. After the Panama Canal was completed, shipping traffic declined significantly. Valparaíso was forgotten and fell upon hard times. In the 1990s, the government of Chile made an effort to revitalize the colorful port. Today it is a UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) World Heritage site. True to its history of embracing learning, it is also home to four universities. Tourists can visit the first stock exchange in Latin America. Valparaíso also has Chile’s first public library. Visitors stroll through cobblestone streets in the historic district. Here they can also view the city’s iconic colorful buildings. At night, music and street performers liven the experience. Try It Yourself Two Spanish words comprise the name of this city. Val means valley. Paraiso means paradise. The name Valparaíso means Paradise Valley. Can you recognize descriptive Spanish words in other Spanish place names? Start with names of places around you. Las Comidas Tradicionales To Chileans, nothing says home like pastel de choclo, a type of casserole made of beef and corn. The body of the casserole is flavorful. It contains beef, onions, raisins, and roasted chicken. It is topped off with a layer of creamed corn and then baked. Baking it brings out the sweetness in the corn, adding a contrast to the savory meat. The preferred type of corn is called choclo. This variety is grown in rugged conditions in the Andes. The kernels are large and hearty compared to other varieties. Another favorite dish in Chile is a type of meat stew called cazuela. Originally a native dish, it is now known as comfort food in Chile. Pork, beef, lamb, or chicken still on the bone is boiled in a traditional clay pot. To that, corn, potatoes, and other local vegetables are added. It is seasoned with onion and garlic. Pablo Rogat/Shutterstock When Chileans think about dessert, manjar is the first ingredient on their minds. It is a caramel sauce made from cooking milk, sugar, and vanilla. It is found in many desserts. It is used as filling in cakes, pies, and cookies. It is refrigerated to make puddings and custards. People even use it to sweeten their coffee.

“There’s No Such Thing as Sound Science” by By Christie Aschwanden was a lead science writer for FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight, Science, Dec. 6, 2017 Science is being turned against itself. For decades, its twin ideals of transparency and rigor have been weaponized by those who disagree with results produced by the scientific method. Under the Trump administration, that fight has ramped up again. In a move ostensibly meant to reduce conflicts of interest, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt has removed a number of scientists from advisory panels and replaced some of them with representatives from industries that the agency regulates. Like many in the Trump administration, Pruitt has also cast doubt on the reliability of climate science. For instance, in an interview with CNBC, Pruitt said that “measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do.” Similarly, Trump’s pick to head NASA, an agency that oversees a large portion the nation’s climate research, has insisted that research into human influence on climate lacks certainty, and he falsely claimed that “global temperatures stopped rising 10 years ago.” Kathleen Hartnett White, Trump’s nominee to head the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said in a Senate hearing last month that she thinks we “need to have more precise explanations of the human role and the natural role” in climate change. The same entreaties crop up again and again: We need to root out conflicts. We need more precise evidence. What makes these arguments so powerful is that they sound quite similar to the points raised by proponents of a very different call for change that’s coming from within science. This other movement strives to produce more robust, reproducible findings. Despite having dissimilar goals, the two forces espouse principles that look surprisingly alike: Science needs to be transparent. Results and methods should be openly shared so that outside researchers can independently reproduce and validate them. The methods used to collect and analyze data should be rigorous and clear, and conclusions must be supported by evidence. These are the arguments underlying an “open science” reform movement that was created, in part, as a response to a “reproducibility crisis” that has struck some fields of science.1 But they’re also used as talking points by politicians who are working to make it more difficult for the EPA and other federal agencies to use science in their regulatory decision-making, under the guise of basing policy on “sound science.” Science’s virtues are being wielded against it. What distinguishes the two calls for transparency is intent: Whereas the “open science” movement aims to make science more reliable, reproducible and robust, proponents of “sound science” have historically worked to amplify uncertainty, create doubt and undermine scientific discoveries that threaten their interests. “Our criticisms are founded in a confidence in science,” said Steven Goodman, co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford and a proponent of open science. “That’s a fundamental difference — we’re critiquing science to make it better. Others are critiquing it to devalue the approach itself.” Calls to base public policy on “sound science” seem unassailable if you don’t know the term’s history. The phrase was adopted by the tobacco industry in the 1990s to counteract mounting evidence linking secondhand smoke to cancer. A 1992 Environmental Protection Agency report identified secondhand smoke as a human carcinogen, and Philip Morris responded by launching an initiative to promote what it called “sound science.” In an internal memo, Philip Morris vice president of corporate affairs Ellen Merlo wrote that the program was designed to “discredit the EPA report,” “prevent states and cities, as well as businesses from passing smoking bans” and “proactively” pass legislation to help their cause. The sound science tactic exploits a fundamental feature of the scientific process: Science does not produce absolute certainty. Contrary to how it’s sometimes represented to the public, science is not a magic wand that turns everything it touches to truth. Instead, it’s a process of uncertainty reduction, much like a game of 20 Questions. Any given study can rarely answer more than one question at a time, and each study usually raises a bunch of new questions in the process of answering old ones. “Science is a process rather than an answer,” said psychologist Alison Ledgerwood of the University of California, Davis. Every answer is provisional and subject to change in the face of new evidence. It’s not entirely correct to say that “this study proves this fact,” Ledgerwood said. “We should be talking instead about how science increases or decreases our confidence in something.” The tobacco industry’s brilliant tactic was to turn this baked-in uncertainty against the scientific enterprise itself. While insisting that they merely wanted to ensure that public policy was based on sound science, tobacco companies defined the term in a way that ensured that no science could ever be sound enough. The only sound science was certain science, which is an impossible standard to achieve. “Doubt is our product,” wrote one employee of the Brown & Williamson tobacco company in a 1969 internal memo. The note went on to say that doubt “is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’” and “establishing a controversy.” These strategies for undermining inconvenient science were so effective that they’ve served as a sort of playbook for industry interests ever since, said Stanford University science historian Robert Proctor. The sound science push is no longer just Philip Morris sowing doubt about the links between cigarettes and cancer. It’s also a 1998 action plan by the American Petroleum Institute, Chevron and Exxon Mobil to “install uncertainty” about the link between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. It’s industry-funded groups’ late-1990s effort to question the science the EPA was using to set fine-particle-pollution air-quality standards that the industry didn’t want. And then there was the more recent effort by Dow Chemical to insist on more scientific certainty before banning a pesticide that the EPA’s scientists had deemed risky to children. Now comes a move by the Trump administration’s EPA to repeal a 2015 rule on wetlands protection by disregarding particular studies. (To name just a few examples.) Doubt merchants aren’t pushing for knowledge, they’re practicing what Proctor has dubbed “agnogenesis” — the intentional manufacture of ignorance. This ignorance isn’t simply the absence of knowing something; it’s a lack of comprehension deliberately created by agents who don’t want you to know, Proctor said.2 In the hands of doubt-makers, transparency becomes a rhetorical move. “It’s really difficult as a scientist or policy maker to make a stand against transparency and openness, because well, who would be against it?” said Karen Levy, researcher on information science at Cornell University. But at the same time, “you can couch everything in the language of transparency and it becomes a powerful weapon.” For instance, when the EPA was preparing to set new limits on particulate pollution in the 1990s, industry groups pushed back against the research and demanded access to primary data (including records that researchers had promised participants would remain confidential) and a reanalysis of the evidence. Their calls succeeded and a new analysis was performed. The reanalysis essentially confirmed the original conclusions, but the process of conducting it delayed the implementation of regulations and cost researchers time and money. Delay is a time-tested strategy. “Gridlock is the greatest friend a global warming skeptic has,” said Marc Morano, a prominent critic of global warming research and the executive director of ClimateDepot.com, in the documentary “Merchants of Doubt” (based on the book by the same name). Morano’s site is a project of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, which has received funding from the oil and gas industry. “We’re the negative force. We’re just trying to stop stuff.” Some of these ploys are getting a fresh boost from Congress. The Data Quality Act (also known as the Information Quality Act) was reportedly written by an industry lobbyist and quietly passed as part of an appropriations bill in 2000. The rule mandates that federal agencies ensure the “quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of information” that they disseminate, though it does little to define what these terms mean. The law also provides a mechanism for citizens and groups to challenge information that they deem inaccurate, including science that they disagree with. “It was passed in this very quiet way with no explicit debate about it — that should tell you a lot about the real goals,” Levy said. But what’s most telling about the Data Quality Act is how it’s been used, Levy said. A 2004 Washington Post analysis found that in the 20 months following its implementation, the act was repeatedly used by industry groups to push back against proposed regulations and bog down the decision-making process. Instead of deploying transparency as a fundamental principle that applies to all science, these interests have used transparency as a weapon to attack very particular findings that they would like to eradicate. Now Congress is considering another way to legislate how science is used. The Honest Act, a bill sponsored by Rep. Lamar Smith of Texas,3 is another example of what Levy calls a “Trojan horse” law that uses the language of transparency as a cover to achieve other political goals. Smith’s legislation would severely limit the kind of evidence the EPA could use for decision-making. Only studies whose raw data and computer codes were publicly available would be allowed for consideration. That might sound perfectly reasonable, and in many cases it is, Goodman said. But sometimes there are good reasons why researchers can’t conform to these rules, like when the data contains confidential or sensitive medical information.4 Critics, which include more than a dozen scientific organizations, argue that, in practice, the rules would prevent many studies from being considered in EPA reviews.5 It might seem like an easy task to sort good science from bad, but in reality it’s not so simple. “There’s a misplaced idea that we can definitively distinguish the good from the not-good science, but it’s all a matter of degree,” said Brian Nosek, executive director of the Center for Open Science. “There is no perfect study.” Requiring regulators to wait until they have (nonexistent) perfect evidence is essentially “a way of saying, ‘We don’t want to use evidence for our decision-making,’” Nosek said. Most scientific controversies aren’t about science at all, and once the sides are drawn, more data is unlikely to bring opponents into agreement. Michael Carolan, who researches the sociology of technology and scientific knowledge at Colorado State University, wrote in a 2008 paper about why objective knowledge is not enough to resolve environmental controversies. “While these controversies may appear on the surface to rest on disputed questions of fact, beneath often reside differing positions of value; values that can give shape to differing understandings of what ‘the facts’ are.” What’s needed in these cases isn’t more or better science, but mechanisms to bring those hidden values to the forefront of the discussion so that they can be debated transparently. “As long as we continue down this unabashedly naive road about what science is, and what it is capable of doing, we will continue to fail to reach any sort of meaningful consensus on these matters,” Carolan writes. The dispute over tobacco was never about the science of cigarettes’ link to cancer. It was about whether companies have the right to sell dangerous products and, if so, what obligations they have to the consumers who purchased them. Similarly, the debate over climate change isn’t about whether our planet is heating, but about how much responsibility each country and person bears for stopping it. While researching her book “Merchants of Doubt,” science historian Naomi Oreskes found that some of the same people who were defending the tobacco industry as scientific experts were also receiving industry money to deny the role of human activity in global warming. What these issues had in common, she realized, was that they all involved the need for government action. “None of this is about the science. All of this is a political debate about the role of government,” she said in the documentary. These controversies are really about values, not scientific facts, and acknowledging that would allow us to have more truthful and productive debates. What would that look like in practice? Instead of cherry-picking evidence to support a particular view (and insisting that the science points to a desired action), the various sides could lay out the values they are using to assess the evidence. For instance, in Europe, many decisions are guided by the precautionary principle — a system that values caution in the face of uncertainty and says that when the risks are unclear, it should be up to industries to show that their products and processes are not harmful, rather than requiring the government to prove that they are harmful before they can be regulated. By contrast, U.S. agencies tend to wait for strong evidence of harm before issuing regulations. Both approaches have critics, but the difference between them comes down to priorities: Is it better to exercise caution at the risk of burdening companies and perhaps the economy, or is it more important to avoid potential economic downsides even if it means that sometimes a harmful product or industrial process goes unregulated? In other words, under what circumstances do we agree to act on a risk? How certain do we need to be that the risk is real, and how many people would need to be at risk, and how costly is it to reduce that risk? Those are moral questions, not scientific ones, and openly discussing and identifying these kinds of judgment calls would lead to a more honest debate. Science matters, and we need to do it as rigorously as possible. But science can’t tell us how risky is too risky to allow products like cigarettes or potentially harmful pesticides to be sold — those are value judgements that only humans can make.

Introduction to Hedging Instruments: Forwards, Futures, Options, and Swaps Hedging instruments are financial tools used by businesses and investors to mitigate risk. These instruments help protect against adverse price movements in assets such as commodities, currencies, interest rates, or securities. The four main hedging instruments are forwards, futures, options, and swaps. 1. Forwards A forward contract is a customised agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Key Characteristics: Over-the-counter (OTC): Traded directly between parties, not on an exchange. Customisation: Can be tailored to suit the needs of the parties involved. Settlement: Occurs at the end of the contract, which may involve physical delivery or cash settlement. Risk: Forwards carry counter-party risk, as there is a possibility one party may default. Example: A company that needs to import raw materials in six months may enter into a forward contract to lock in the current price, avoiding the risk of price increases. 2. Futures A futures contract is similar to a forward, but it is standardised and traded on an exchange. This standardisation eliminates counter-party risk. Key Characteristics: Standardised: Contract size, expiration, and other terms are fixed by the exchange. Mark-to-market: Gains and losses are settled daily. Liquidity: Futures are highly liquid because they are traded on exchanges. Regulation: As they are traded on formal exchanges, they are more regulated than forwards. Example: A wheat farmer may sell futures contracts to hedge against a possible decline in wheat prices before harvest. 3. Options Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specified price on or before a certain date. There are two types of options: call options and put options. Call Option: Gives the holder the right to buy an asset at a predetermined price. Put Option: Gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price. Key Characteristics: Premium: The buyer pays a premium upfront to obtain the option. Limited Risk: The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. Flexibility: Options can be used for speculative or hedging purposes. Example: An investor holding stocks may buy a put option to protect against potential declines in the stock's price. 4. Swaps A swap is a contract in which two parties agree to exchange cash flows or liabilities over a specific period. The most common types are interest rate swaps and currency swaps. Key Characteristics: Customizable: Like forwards, swaps are often tailored to meet the needs of the parties involved. Counterparty Risk: Swaps are typically OTC instruments, exposing parties to default risk. Common Uses: Used to manage interest rate risk or currency risk. Example: A company with a variablerate loan may enter into an interest rate swap to exchange its variable payments for fixedrate payments, thus locking in stable costs. Hedging instruments are essential for managing financial risk in volatile markets. Each instrument serves different purposes, with varying levels of complexity, risk, and customization. Whether through forwards, futures, options, or swaps, businesses can better plan for the future by reducing exposure to uncertain price fluctuations. Hedging Strategies for Market Risk, Credit Risk, and Currency Risk 1. Hedging Strategies for Market Risk Market risk (also known as systematic risk) arises from fluctuations in asset prices, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and interest rates, due to economic factors or market volatility. Key Hedging Instruments for Market Risk: Derivatives (Options, Futures, and Forwards): These instruments allow investors to hedge against unfavorable price movements in stocks, commodities, or interest rates. Example: An investor holding a large stock portfolio might buy a put option to protect against a potential market downturn. If the market declines, the put option increases in value, offsetting losses in the portfolio. Short Selling: Investors can sell borrowed assets with the expectation of buying them back at a lower price, profiting from the decline. Example: A fund manager expecting a market decline may short sell stocks to hedge a portfolio against losses. Common Hedging Strategies: Portfolio Diversification: Reducing market risk by spreading investments across various asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) and sectors. Using Index Futures: Large portfolios can be hedged using index futures that track the performance of the overall market. If the market declines, profits from the short position in the futures contract will offset losses in the portfolio. Risk Parity: Allocating assets based on the level of risk rather than the dollar amount invested, balancing risk exposure across asset classes. 2. Hedging Strategies for Credit Risk Credit risk refers to the possibility that a borrower will default on a debt obligation. This is especially important for banks, lenders, and institutions dealing with bonds and loans. Key Hedging Instruments for Credit Risk: Credit Default Swaps (CDS): A financial derivative where the buyer of a CDS pays a premium to the seller in exchange for protection against a default on a loan or bond. Example: A bank holding corporate bonds can buy a CDS to ensure they are compensated if the issuing company defaults. Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs): These instruments pool together various debt instruments and allow risk to be distributed among multiple investors. Credit Insurance: Companies may use insurance to protect against the risk of a customer defaulting on payments. Common Hedging Strategies: Diversification of Loan Portfolio: Spreading out credit exposures across various industries, geographies, and borrower profiles reduces the overall risk of default. Tightening Lending Standards: Limiting exposure to highrisk borrowers by implementing stringent credit assessments. AssetBacked Securities: Banks can sell loans or bonds packaged as assetbacked securities to reduce their exposure to credit risk. 3. Hedging Strategies for Currency Risk Currency risk (or exchange rate risk) arises from fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, which can affect companies involved in international trade or with investments in foreign countries. Key Hedging Instruments for Currency Risk: Forward Contracts: A firm agrees to exchange a specified amount of currency at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date. Example: A U.S. exporter expecting payment in euros might enter into a forward contract to sell euros and lock in a favorable exchange rate. Currency Options: These give the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specific price. Example: A U.S.based company buying goods from Japan might buy a call option on the yen to hedge against the risk of yen appreciation. Currency Swaps: Two parties exchange interest payments and principal in different currencies to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations. Common Hedging Strategies: Natural Hedging: Companies can offset currency risk by balancing foreign revenue with costs in the same currency. For example, if a company generates revenue in euros, it can also incur expenses in euros, reducing exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. Multi-Currency Invoicing: Firms can invoice in their home currency, shifting the currency risk to the buyer. Currency Diversification: Holding a diversified basket of currencies can reduce exposure to large fluctuations in any one currency. Effective hedging strategies are crucial for managing various types of risks in financial markets. Market risk can be managed using instruments like futures and options, while credit risk can be mitigated through diversification and credit derivatives. Currency risk, often faced by multinational firms, can be hedged using forward contracts, options, or swaps. Each strategy helps firms and investors protect their portfolios, ensure financial stability, and reduce the impact of adverse movements in the financial markets. Portfolio Risk Management Techniques: Diversification, Asset Allocation, and Risk Budgeting Managing risk is a fundamental aspect of portfolio management. Investors use various techniques to control and reduce the risks inherent in investing. Three key techniques used in portfolio risk management are diversification, asset allocation, and risk budgeting. Each of these techniques helps in mitigating potential losses while aiming to achieve the desired return. 1. Diversification Diversification is a risk management strategy that involves spreading investments across different assets, sectors, or geographic regions to reduce exposure to any single risk. The idea is that different assets perform differently under various market conditions, so losses in one investment can be offset by gains in others. Key Benefits of Diversification: Reduction of Unsystematic Risk: Unsystematic risk, which is unique to a specific company or industry, can be reduced by holding a variety of investments that respond differently to market conditions. Improved Stability: A diversified portfolio is less volatile, as the negative performance of one asset can be balanced by the positive performance of others. Methods of Diversification: Across Asset Classes: Investing in a mix of asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate. Example: A portfolio with 60% equities, 30% bonds, and 10% commodities is more diversified than one solely consisting of stocks. Within Asset Classes: Diversifying within a single asset class (e.g., holding stocks from different sectors like technology, healthcare, and energy). Geographic Diversification: Investing in assets across various countries or regions to mitigate country-specific risks. Example: Holding U.S. stocks along with emerging market equities can reduce risks related to a downturn in one country's economy. 2. Asset Allocation Asset allocation refers to the process of dividing investments among different asset classes (such as stocks, bonds, and cash) to align with an investor's risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals. Asset allocation plays a crucial role in portfolio risk management by determining the overall risk-return profile of the portfolio. Key Elements of Asset Allocation: Strategic Asset Allocation: A longterm approach that involves setting target allocations for different asset classes based on financial goals and risk tolerance. Example: A young investor with a longterm horizon might allocate 70% to stocks, 20% to bonds, and 10% to cash. Tactical Asset Allocation: A more active approach that involves adjusting the asset mix in response to short-term market conditions. Example: If the investor expects an economic downturn, they might temporarily reduce exposure to equities and increase exposure to bonds. Types of Asset Allocation Models: Conservative: Focuses on preserving capital with a larger allocation to bonds and cash (e.g., 20% stocks, 80% bonds). Balanced: A moderate risk approach with an equal focus on growth and income (e.g., 50% stocks, 50% bonds). Aggressive: Targets higher returns by investing predominantly in equities, accepting higher risk (e.g., 80% stocks, 20% bonds). Example of Asset Allocation: A 40 year old investor with moderate risk tolerance may allocate their portfolio as follows: 50% equities, 40% bonds, and 10% in alternative investments such as real estate or commodities. The equities provide growth potential, while the bonds and alternative assets offer stability and income. 3. Risk Budgeting Risk budgeting is a method of allocating risk across different components of a portfolio, rather than focusing solely on returns. The goal is to optimise the portfolio’s risk-return profile by distributing risk in a way that aligns with the investor’s objectives and risk tolerance. Key Concepts of Risk Budgeting: Risk Contribution: Each asset class or investment in the portfolio contributes a certain amount of risk (measured by metrics such as volatility or Value at Risk). Risk budgeting ensures that no single asset class dominates the overall risk of the portfolio. Example: A portfolio may contain 60% stocks and 40% bonds, but if the stocks are highly volatile, they may contribute 90% of the portfolio's risk. Target Risk: Investors set a maximum acceptable level of risk (e.g., a portfolio volatility of 10%) and allocate investments so that the total risk remains within this target. Techniques in Risk Budgeting: Risk Parity: Allocates risk evenly across asset classes, rather than allocating capital based solely on return expectations. Example: In a risk-parity portfolio, both bonds and stocks might be balanced in such a way that they contribute equally to the overall portfolio risk, even though the dollar investment in bonds may be larger due to their lower volatility. Value at Risk (VaR): This technique measures the potential loss in a portfolio over a specific time period, under normal market conditions, at a given confidence level. The risk budget ensures that the potential loss stays within acceptable limits. Example of Risk Budgeting: An investor targets an overall portfolio risk of 8% volatility. After analyzing the risk contribution of each asset class, they determine that equities, which currently make up 60% of the portfolio, contribute 70% of the risk. To adhere to the risk budget, the investor may reduce their equity exposure and increase their allocation to bonds or other less volatile assets. Diversification, asset allocation, and risk budgeting are complementary techniques used in portfolio risk management. Diversification reduces unsystematic risk by spreading investments across various assets. Asset allocation ensures that investments align with an investor's goals and risk tolerance. Risk budgeting focuses on managing the contribution of risk from each asset class to create a balanced and efficient portfolio. Together, these strategies help investors achieve a balance between risk and return, ensuring longterm portfolio stability. Risk Mitigation Through Insurance, Securitisation, and Other Financial Engineering Techniques Risk mitigation is a core objective in financial management, and various strategies can be employed to reduce or manage risks. Three major approaches are insurance, securitisation, and financial engineering techniques. Each of these methods helps firms and individuals transfer, reduce, or eliminate certain financial risks. 1. Insurance as a Risk Mitigation Tool Insurance is a traditional risk transfer method that protects against financial losses by shifting the risk to an insurance company in exchange for premium payments. It is widely used to mitigate various forms of risk, such as operational, liability, and property risks. Key Aspects of Insurance for Risk Mitigation: Risk Transfer: The insurer takes on the risk in exchange for a premium, thus protecting the insured party from unexpected financial losses. Indemnity: In the event of a loss, the insurance policy compensates the insured based on the terms of the contract. Customisable Coverage: Insurance policies can be tailored to address specific risks, such as property damage, business interruption, liability, or cyber risks. Types of Insurance for Businesses: Property and Casualty Insurance: Covers physical assets like buildings, machinery, and inventory from risks like fire, theft, or natural disasters. Liability Insurance: Protects businesses against legal liabilities arising from accidents, negligence, or professional errors. Business Interruption Insurance: Compensates for lost income if a business has to halt operations due to unforeseen events. Credit Insurance: Shields companies from losses due to the nonpayment of trade receivables. 2. Securitisation as a Risk Mitigation Technique Securitisation is a financial engineering process that involves pooling various financial assets (such as loans, mortgages, or receivables) and converting them into marketable securities. This process allows firms to transfer risk to investors, thereby reducing their exposure. Key Elements of Securitisation: Risk Transfer: By securitising assets, companies can transfer the risk of default or nonpayment to investors who purchase the securities. Liquidity Creation: Securitisation converts illiquid assets (like mortgages or loans) into liquid, tradeable securities, improving cash flow for the originating firm. Diversification of Risk: Pooling assets with different risk profiles reduces the impact of individual defaults, spreading the risk across multiple investors. Common Forms of Securitisation: MortgageBacked Securities (MBS): Pools of mortgages are bundled and sold as securities to investors, transferring the risk of mortgage defaults. Example: A bank that issues home loans can bundle those loans into MBS and sell them to investors, transferring the credit risk of potential defaults. Asset-Backed Securities (ABS): Similar to MBS, but backed by other types of assets like credit card receivables, auto loans, or student loans. Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs): Structured financial products that pool different types of debt, such as loans and bonds, and sell them as securities with varying risk levels. Example: A bank may issue a portfolio of auto loans and then pool these loans into an assetbacked security (ABS). The ABS is sold to investors, who take on the risk of loan defaults. By securitising the loans, the bank reduces its exposure to credit risk and generates immediate cash flow. 3. Financial Engineering Techniques for Risk Mitigation Financial engineering involves the use of complex financial instruments, derivatives, and structured products to manage or mitigate financial risks. These techniques allow firms to hedge against specific risks, optimize capital structure, and improve financial stability. Common Financial Engineering Techniques: Derivatives: Financial instruments like futures, forwards, options, and swaps are used to hedge against price fluctuations, interest rate changes, or currency movements. Example: A company with significant foreign exchange exposure may use currency forwards or options to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations, ensuring predictable cash flows. Options and Futures: Options: Provides the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price, allowing firms to hedge against unfavorable price movements. Example: An airline company can buy options on jet fuel to hedge against rising fuel prices. Futures: Standardized contracts to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a future date, commonly used to hedge commodities or financial assets. Example: A wheat producer may use futures contracts to lock in a favorable price for its crop, hedging against a potential price drop. Swaps: These involve the exchange of cash flows between two parties, often used to manage interest rate risk or currency risk. Interest Rate Swaps: Firms can exchange floatingrate interest payments for fixedrate payments to hedge against rising interest rates. Currency Swaps: Used to hedge exchange rate risk in crossborder transactions by exchanging principal and interest payments in different currencies. Example: A company with a variablerate loan may enter into an interest rate swap to exchange its variable payments for fixedrate payments, locking in stable costs. Structured Products: These are customised financial instruments designed to achieve specific riskreturn objectives. They often combine derivatives with other securities to create tailored risk exposures. Example: A structured note that combines a bond with an embedded option, offering downside protection while allowing for potential upside linked to the performance of an equity index. Credit Derivatives: Tools like credit default swaps (CDS) allow investors to transfer credit risk to other parties. Example: A bondholder worried about a company’s potential default may purchase a CDS, which pays out in case of a default event. Example: A company may issue a bond with an embedded call option, allowing it to repurchase the bond if interest rates decline. This financial engineering tool enables the company to mitigate the risk of rising interest rates, reducing future borrowing costs. Risk mitigation through insurance, securitisation, and financial engineering offers businesses a variety of tools to manage and transfer risks. Insurance allows for the direct transfer of risk to an insurer, while securitisation helps companies offload risk by packaging and selling assets as securities. Financial engineering techniques, including derivatives, swaps, and structured products, provide sophisticated ways to hedge market, interest rate, and currency risks. Each approach helps organizations improve financial stability, enhance liquidity, and manage potential losses in a volatile market environment.

New Trends in Agriculture Extension approaches Extension has been, and still is, under attack from a wide spectrum of politicians and economists over its cost and financing. As a result, Extension Systems have had to make changes, by restating the system’s mission, developing a new vision for the future, and formulating plans for the necessary transition to achieve the desired change. 1. Privatization of Agricultural Extension Service Privatization: Process of funding and delivering the extension services by private individual or organization is called Private Extension. Concept: Privatization of extension refers to services rendered in rural area & allied aspects of extension personnel working in private agencies or organization for which farmers are expected to pay a fee & it can be viewed as supplementary or alternative to public extension services (Sarvanan & Shivalinge 1980). Privatization approaches ➢ Share cropping system ➢ Village extension contract system ➢ Public extension through private delivery ➢ Service for vouchers Strengths of Private Extension System ➢ More demand - driven rather than supply – driven ➢ High quality of services in terms of satisfying information needs of clientele, trained manpower, sustained finances and resource allocation ➢ Provides for an information mix and choices available to farmers ➢ Enhanced efficiency of staff ➢ Assure continuous supply and quality agricultural products ➢ More effective because farmer can select an adviser who is the best able to help ➢ Healthy competition among service provider will lead to better quality and lower costs for service Weakness of Private Extension System ➢ Concentrate on area having favorable physical environment ➢ More face-to-face contacts (person oriented) ➢ Increased dependence of farmers and hence exploitation ➢ No education role ➢ Deprivation of small farmers ➢ Hamper the free flow of information 2. Cyber Extension or e-extension Concepts Cyber space: it is the imaginary or virtual space of computers connected with each other on Networks, across the Globe. Cyber extension: it means 'using the power of online networks, computer communications and digital interactive multimedia to facilitate dissemination of agriculture technology. Cyber Extension thus can be defined as the extension over cyber space. Important tools of cyber extension E-Mail, Telnet, File Transfer Protocol (FTP), Gopher, Archie and World Wide Web (WWW) Strengths of Cyber Extension ➢ Access to the astounding information and continuously available ➢ Information rich and instantaneously available of information ➢ Interactive communication ➢ The information is available from any point on the globe ➢ Communication is dynamic ➢ Cut steps from traditional process ➢ Save money, time and effort ➢ Multiplicity of purpose Issues and Concerns of Cyber Extension ➢ Lack of Reliable Telecom Infrastructure in Rural Areas ➢ Erratic or no Power Supply ➢ Lack of ICT Trained manpower (willing to serve) in Rural Areas ➢ Lack of content (locally relevant and in local languages) ➢ Lack of Information Services to Rural Clientele ➢ Low Purchasing power of the Rural communities ➢ Lack of Holistic Approaches ➢ Issues of Sustainability Application of cyber extension ➢ Village information shops Dr. M.S. SwaminathanResearch Foundation, Chennai ➢ Information villagers MANAGE in Ranga Reddy District in Andhra pradesh ➢ Gyandoot net initiative of District Dhar, Madhya Pradesh. ➢ Warna wired village of National Informatics Center (NIC) in Kolhapur- Sangli Districts of Maharashtra 3. Market-Led-Extension (MLE) Concepts Market: A congregation of prospective buyers & sellers with a common motive of trading a particular commodity. Extension: It is the spreading/reaching out to the mass Market-led-extension: Agriculture & economics coupled with extension is the perfect blend for reaching at the door steps of common man with the help of technology. Dimensions of market-led extension ➢ Marketing mix: A planned mix of the controllable elements of a product's marketing plan commonly termed as 4Ps: product, price, place, and promotion. These four elements are adjusted until the right combination is found that serves the needs of the product's customers, while generating optimum income. ➢ Marketing plan: A marketing plan is a comprehensive document that outlines a business and marketing efforts for the coming year. It describes business activities involved in accomplishing specific marketing objectives within a set time frame. A marketing plan also includes a description of the current marketing position of a business, a discussion of the target market and a description of the marketing mix that a business will use to achieve their marketing goals. ➢ Market Intelligence: It is the information relevant to a company’s markets, gathered and analyzed specifically for the purpose of accurate and confident decision making. Market intelligence includes the process of gathering data from the company’s external environment, whereas the business intelligence process is primarily based on internal recorded events – such as sales, shipments and purchases. ➢ Market oriented production ➢ Use of Technology Strengths of market-led extension ➢ SWOT analysis of the market ➢ Organization of Farmers’ Interest Groups (FIGs) ➢ Enhancing the interactive and communication skills of the farmers ➢ Establishing marketing and agro-processing linkages ➢ Advice on product planning ➢ Educating the farming community ➢ Direct marketing ➢ Acquiring complete market intelligence ➢ Publication of agricultural market information Production of video films of success stories ➢ Challenges to market-led extension ➢ Gigantic size of extension system ➢ Information technology Diverse conditions ➢ Market intelligence ➢ Reforms in agricultural extension system Government Initiatives ➢ Central warehousing Corporation-1965 ➢ MSP by Commission for Agricultural Cost and Price (CACP) ➢ Food Corporation of India ➢ Then some others as: Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Jute Corporation of India (JCI), National Dairy Development Board (NDDB), Agriculture and Processed food Export Development Authority (APEDA) etc. 4. Farmer--Led-Extension (FLE) Farmer--led-extension is defined as 'the provision of training by farmers to farmers, often through the creation of a structure of farmer promoters and farmer trainers' (Scarborough et al., 1997). Philosophy and principles ➢ Farmers and local institutions (e.g. producer organizations or village leaders) should play a key role in selecting farmer-trainers and monitoring and evaluating them. This helps make the programmes more accountable to the community or groups that they serve. ➢ Farmer-trainers are ‘of the community’; they communicate in local languages and are more sensitive to local cultures, mannerisms, farming practices, and farmers’ needs. ➢ Farmer-trainers should be selected on the basis of their skills and interest in sharing information, not just on their farming expertise. ➢ Farmer-trainers need strong linkages with and support from development agents (whether government, non-government organization (NGO), or private), the people who train and backstop them. Farmer-trainers generally serve as a complement to existing extension systems, rather than being a substitute for them. ➢ Facilitating organizations and local institutions need to be proactive in ensuring that women as well as men become farmer-trainers. ➢ Simple and appropriate reference materials should be made available to the farmer trainers. Essential Elements of Farmer--led-extension ➢ The group ➢ The Field ➢ The Facilitator ➢ The curriculum ➢ Programme leader ➢ Financing Special features of Farmer--led-extension ➢ All learning is field based & it is primary venue for learning ➢ FLE group learning constantly over the experimentation period ➢ FLE promotes healthy decisions & quality decisions ➢ Farmers conduct their own field studies with comparisons or treatments ➢ Facilitates Farmer-to-Farmer communication ➢ Field staff serve as facilitators ➢ FLE is a unique way to educate farmers ➢ It is an effective platform for sharing of experiences and collectively solving agriculture related problems. 5. Expert system Expert system is an intelligent computer program that uses knowledge and inferences procedures to solve problems (Daniel Hunt, 1986). Objectives of developing expert system ➢ To enhance the performance of agricultural extension personnel and farmer ➢ To make farming more efficient and profitable ➢ To reduce the time required in solving the problems ➢ To maintain the expert system by continuously upgrading the database Advantages of expert system ➢ Solves critical problems by making logical deductions without taking much time ➢ It combines experimental and conventional knowledge with the reasoning skills of specialists ➢ To enhance the performance of average worker to the level of an expert Limitations of expert system ➢ Expensive computer program ➢ Mostly developed not in regional languages ➢ Requires AC power and internet connection all the time ➢ Complex software requires computer skilled personnel Modules of expert system in agriculture ➢ COMAX: Integrated crop management in cotton ➢ SOYEX: Soybean oil extraction expert system ➢ PLANT/ds: Diagnosis of soybean diseases ➢ MAIZE: Maize expert system for field crop management ➢ SEMAGI: Weed control decision making in sunflowers ➢ Rice Crop Doctor: Developed by National Institute of Agricultural Extension Management (MANAGE) Difference between conventional and expert system of extension Conventional Extension ➢ Universal approachability of same information is a problem ➢ Information is given whatever is available without considering needs and resources ➢ No Cost benefit analysis ➢ Information flow depends on availability of agent ➢ Require users to draw their own conclusion from facts Expert System of Extension ➢ Universal approachability of same information is possible ➢ Information is chosen based on their needs and resources ➢ Cost benefit analysis ➢ Information through Cyber Cafe at any place at any time ➢ Conclusion is drawn based on the decision given by the expert

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