Why is demand forecasting important?

To predict how much of a product or service people will want to buy in the future.

To count how many toys are in a store

What does demand forecasting help businesses do?

Estimate how much of a product or service people will want to buy in the future.

Which step involves putting the forecasted demand into action?

Step 7: Implementing the forecast

Step 6: Finalizing the forecast

Step 8: Monitoring and adjusting

Step 5: Considering external influences

What type of data is used in econometric methods for demand forecasting?

Historical data and statistical information

What is the main goal of using econometric methods in demand forecasting?

To help businesses plan for future demand

Demand forecasting

Why and How Managers Plan Importance of planning The planing process Benefits of planning Planning and time management Types of PLans used by managers Long term and short term plans Strageic and tactical plans Operational plans Planning Tools and Techiqunes Forecasting Contrigency planning Scenario planning Benchmaking Use of staff planners Implementing Plans to Achive Results Goal setting Goal management Goal alignment Participation and involvement Planning Def: The process of setting objectives and determining how best to accomplish them Planning at Eaton Corporation “Making the hard decision before events force them upon you, an anticipating the future needs of the market before the demand asset itself Objectives and goals Identifity the specific results or desired outcomes that one intends to achieve Plan Def: A statement of action steps to be taken in order to accomplish the objectives (goals) Steps in the planning process: Define your objectives Determine where you stand vis-a-vis objectives Develpo premises reagrdsing future conditions Analyze alternatives and make a plan Implement the plan and evaluate results What are the benefits of planning Improves focus and flexibility Imporves action orteitation Imporves coordination and control Imporves time management Time Managment Personal time management tips Do say “no” to request that distract you form what you should be doing Dont get bogged down inn details that can be addressed later Do screen telephone calls, emails and meeting request Dont let drop in visitors, text messaging use up your time Do prioritize your important and urgent work Dont become calendar bound by letting other control your schedule Do follow priorities; do most important and urgent work first Some 77% of mangers in one survey said that digital age has increased th number of decisions they have to make 43% said there was less time available to make these decisions Types of plans used by Managers What is teh time horizon Long term vs Short term Long term Look three or more years into teh future Short term plans Typically cover one year or less However: the increasing environmental complexity and dynamism of recent years has severely tested the concept of “long-term” planning Plans are subject to frequent revisions Most executives would likely agree that these complexities adn uncertainties challenge how er actually go about planning and how far ahead we can really plan At the very least we can conclude that there is a lot less permanency to long term plans today and that tey are subject to frequent revision Managment reaeracher Eillot Jaques believes tha people vary in their capability to think with different time horizons Types of Plans used by Managers (3 of 5) Strategic plans Set broad, comprehensive and linger term action directions for teh entire organization or major division Vision Clarifies purpose of the organization and what it hopes to be on the future Typical plans Specify how the organizations resources are used to implement strategy Tactical plans in business often take the form of functional plans Functional plans Incidate how different component within the organiztion will help accompnlish the overall strategy Production plans Finacial plans Facilites Plans Logisitc plans Marketing plans Human Resource Plans Operation plans Describe short-term activities to implement strategic plans Policies: Are standing plans that communicate guidelines for decisions Ex: Policies on office romances: The media is quick to report when a top executive or public figures runs into trouble over an office affair. Are there ant policies on office romances? Employer polices on office raltioshiis vary. One survey find teh following: 24% prohibit relationships among employees in the same department 13% prohibit relationships among employees who have the smae supervisor 80% prohibit relationships between supervisors and subordinates 5% have no restrictions on office romances Procedures: Are rules that describe actions to be taken in specific situations Budgets: are single use plans that commit resources to projects or activities Zero based budgets: allocate resources as if each budget were brand new There is no guarantee that any past funding will be renwer. All propsales, old and new, must compete for available funds at teh start of each new budget cycle Forcasting Attempts to predict the future Qualitaive forecasting uses expert opinions Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statiscal aanylsis of historical data dna surveys Contingency planning Identify alternative course of action to take when things go wrong Anticipate changing conditions Contain trigger points to indicate when to activate plan (or a specific course of action) Scenario planning A long term version of contingency planning Identifying alternative future scenarios Plans made for each future scenario Increases organizations flexibility and preparation for future shocks Benchmarking Use of external and internal comparisons to better evaluate current performance Adopting best practices: things people adn organization do that lead to superior performance Staff Planners Experts who assist in all steps of the planning process They help bring focus and expertise to a wide variety of planning tasks Important: Communication between staff planers landline managers is essential for teh success of teh planning process Goal Setting - Always set SMART goal The solution: Goal Aligment Between Team Leader and Team Member Jonintly plan: Set objectives, set standards, choose actions Individually acy: Perform tasks (member), provide support (leader) Jointly control: Review results, discuss implications, renew cycle x4 Collective effort and commitment Participatroy planning Includes in all planning steps that people who will be affected by the plans adn askedd to help implement them Unloacks motivational potential of goal setting Management by objective (MBO) promotes participation Participation increases understanding and acceptance of plan and commitment to success Participatory planning - Number of people involved in teh decision making process Amazon is intensely focused on what it does. It believes in creating tight single-threaded teams, also known as “2 pizza team.” Data and Decision Making What are some of the important competencies managers must have today? Delegate Marketing and technology Manager must have Technological competency Ability to understand new technologies and to use them to their best advantage Information competency Ability to locate, gather, organize and display information for decision-making and problem solving Analytical competency Ability to evaluate and analyze information to make actual decisions and solve real problems What is the difference between Data and Information Data Raw facts and observation Information Data made useful and meaningful for decision-making Important concepts Big data Exists in huge quantities and is difficult to process without sophisticated mathematical and analytical techniques Data production today Bernard Marr is an internationally best-selling author. He helps organizations improve their business performance, use data more intelligently Data mining The process of analyzing data to produce useful information for decision-makers Management Analytics The systematic evaluation and analysis of data to make informed decision Information drives management Bad Data Refers to information that can be erroneous, misleading, and without general formatting The challenge: Can er use the data that is available in the “Big Data” Needs to be valid Can not trust everything out there Being ethical Look at the trends Data is structured and unstructured Data BIg Data = Structured + Unstructured Information Drive Management decision making What are the characteristics of useful information Easy to access If its credible Accurate Characteristics of useful information: Timely High quality Complete Relevant Understandable What about bad data It's not credible Miss information If it is not structured/ organized Bias based on opinions Confusing If its updated Bad data Refers to information that can be erroneous miss What are some examples of Management information system Business intelligence -BI Information systems to extract and report data in organized ways that are useful to decision-makers Executive dashboards Visually update and display key performance metrics (or Key Performance Indicators -KPIs) and information on a real-time basis Information needs in organization External Environment Information exchanges with the external environment Gather intelligence information Provide public information Information needs within the organizations (internal Enviroement) Information exchange within the organization Facilitate decision making Facilitate problem-solving Managers as information processors Continually gather, share and receive information Now as much electronic as it is face-to-face Always on, always connected How many people telecommute at least once a week 70% of people globally work remotely at least once a week, Work at home after covid 19 our forecast Our best estimate it that 25-30% of the workforce will be working form home multiple days a week by the end of 2021 As of 2023, 12.7% of full time employees work from home, while 28.2% work a hybrid model Managers as problem solvers Problem-solving The process of identifying a discrepancy between actual and desired performance and taking action to resolve it Ishikawa Fishbone diagram To identify the cause of problems Decision A choice among possible alternative courses of action Performance threat Something is wrong or has the potential to go wrong Performance opportunity The situation offers the chance for a better future if the right steps are taken Problem-solving approaches or style - from textbook Problem avoiders Inactive in information gathering and solving problems Problem seekers Proactive in anticipation of problems and opportunities and taking appropriate action to gain an advantage Problem solvers Reactive in gathering information and solving problem Managers - can approach problems in a systematic or intuitive manner Systematic thinking approaches problem in rational, step-by-step and analytical fashion Intuitive thinking approaches problems in a flexible and spontaneous fashion Multidimensional thinking- applies both intuitive and systematic thinking Managers face structured and unstructured problems Structure problems Are ones that are familiar, straight forward, and clear with respect to information needs Program decisions apply solutions that are readily available from past experiences to solve structured problems Know how to solve them Familiar Know what we are dealing with Unstructured problems Are ones that are full of ambiguities and information deficiencies Nonprogrammed decisions apply a specific solution to meet the demands of a unique problem Commonly faced by higher-level management Crisis decision making A crisis involves an unexpected problem that can lead to disaster if not resolved quickly and appropriately Ruled for crisis management Figure out what is going on Remember that speed matters Remember that slow counts, too Respect the danger of the unfamiliar Value the skeptic Be ready to “fight fire with fire” Managers make decisions with various amounts of information Certain environment Offers complete information on possible action alternatives and their consequences Risk environment Lacks complete information but offers probabilities of the likely outcomes for possible action alternatives Uncertain environment Lacks so much information that it is difficult to assign probabilities to the likely outcomes of alternative Ex: Certain and uncertain environments: The worldwide Governance Indicators for over 200 countries, comparing distinct environments (Canada-Brazil) Step 1-Identify and define the problem Focuses on information gathering information processing and deliberation Decision objectives should be established What are some common mistakes in definding problems? Common mistakes in defining problems Defining the problem too broadly or too narrowly Focusing on symptoms instead of causes Choosing the wrong problem to deal with Step 2- Generate and Evaluate Alternative Courses of Action Potential solutions are formulated and more information is gathered, data are analyzed, the advantages and disadvantages of alternative solutions are identified Common mistakes: Abandoning the search for alternatives too quickly Step 3- Decide on a preferred course of Action Two different approaches Behavioural model leads to satisficing decisions Classical model les to optimising decisions Behavioural Model Rationality is bounded because: There are limits our thinks capacity Available information (incomplete) Time constraints Step 4-Implement the decision Involves taking action to make sure the solution decided upon becomes a reality Managers need to have the willingness and ability to implement action plans Problems: Lack of participation error should be avoided Step 5 - Evaluate Results Involves comparing actual and desired results The positive and negative consequences of the chosen course of action should be examined If actual results fall short desire results, the manager returns to earlier steps in the decision-making process At all steps, check ethical reasoning Ask these spotlight questions Utility Does teh decision satisfy all constituents or stakeholders Rights Does the description respect the rights and duties of everyone? Justice Is the decision consistent with the canons of justice Caring Is the decision consistent with my responsibilities to care? Issues in decision-making How do errors happen? Heuristics: are strategies for simplifying decision-making Availability Bias: Bases a decision on recent information or events Representativeness bias: Bases a decision on similarity to other situations Anchoring and Adjustment Bias: Bases a decision on incremental adjustment from a prior decision point Framing error: Tring to solve a problem in the context perceived, positive or negative Confirmation Error: Focusing on information that confirms a decision already made Escalating commitment: Continuing a course of action even though it is not working Creative Decision making Creativity is the generation of a novel idea or unique approach that solves a problem or crafts an opportunity Big C: Creativity occurs when extraordinary things are done by exceptional people Little C: Creativity occurs when average people come up with unique ways to deal with daily events and situations The three types of situational creativity drivers Chapter review What are objectives and goals? The specific results or desired outcomes What are the 5 characteristics of great (SMART) goals? Forecasting - Attempts Qualitative forecasting uses options Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statistical analysis of historical data and surveys Scenarios-Oracle’s crystal ball combines qualitative and quantitative methods

Create me a multiple choice test questions with 4 options on the following topic:Consumer Education for Different Audience 1. Children and Youth: - Focus: Building foundational knowledge about basic consumer concepts, making safe choices, understanding money and value, and recognizing scams and unsafe situations. 2. Teens and Young Adults: - Focus: Building financial literacy, responsible debt management, understanding contracts and agreements, responsible technology use, online safety, and consumer rights. 3. Working Adults and Families: - Focus: Managing budgets, making informed purchasing decisions, understanding credit and debt, finding consumer protection resources, and navigating complex financial products (mortgages, insurance, investments). 4. Seniors: - Focus: Protecting themselves from scams and fraud, understanding common consumer issues like telemarketing, identity theft, and online scams, managing medications and healthcare costs, and accessing community resources. 5. Special Populations: - Focus: Adapting consumer education programs to the specific needs of people with disabilities, immigrants, refugees, and other marginalized communities. 6. Business and Industry:- Focus: Understanding ethical marketing practices, complying with consumer protection laws, and providing clear and accurate information to consumers. 7. Policymakers and Regulators: - Focus: Understanding consumer needs, developing effective consumer protection laws, enforcing regulations, and ensuring a fair and competitive marketplace. Adapting consumer education programs for children, teens, and seniors requires tailoring content and delivery methods to their unique needs and learning styles. Children (Ages 5-12): - Understanding the concept of money: Teaching children about saving, spending, and the value of money. - Developing basic budgeting skills: Helping children learn to make choices about how to spend their allowance or pocket money. EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES •Focus on basic concepts: Introduce core concepts like saving, spending, and budgeting in a fun and engaging way. Use simple language and relatable examples. •Real-life scenarios: Use age-appropriate scenarios to illustrate financial concepts, like buying toys or snacks. •Parental involvement: Encourage parent participation and provide resources to help them reinforce lessons at home. Teens (Ages 13-18): - Building budgeting and financial planning skills: Teaching teens how to manage their money, set financial goals, and plan for the future. - Navigating the digital marketplace: Equipping teens with the knowledge and skills to make safe and informed online purchases, understand digital marketing, and protect themselves from scams. EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES • Practical skills: Focus on skills relevant to teens, like managing money for social activities, saving for college, and understanding credit cards. • Digital literacy: Address the growing influence of online shopping, social media advertising, and financial scams. • Real-world applications: Connect financial concepts to real-life decisions teens make, like choosing a part-time job or making purchases online. Seniors (Ages 65+) - Managing retirement savings and healthcare costs: Providing information and resources on retirement planning, Medicare and Medicaid, and other healthcare options. - Navigating the digital world: Offering technology training and resources to help seniors access online services and information safely and securely. EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES • Addressing specific concerns: Focus on topics relevant to senior citizens, like retirement planning, managing healthcare expenses, and avoiding scams. • Clear and concise communication: Use simple language and visual aids to ensure easy understanding. • Social interaction: Create opportunities for seniors to share experiences and learn from each other. Teaching Financial Literacy in school and Communities In Schools: Curriculum Integration: Financial literacy concepts can be seamlessly integrated into existing subjects, making learning more relevant and engaging. - Math: Budgeting exercises, calculating interest rates, analyzing financial data, and understanding compound interest are all natural applications of math skills. - Social Studies: Exploring the history of money, financial institutions, economic systems, and the impact of financial decisions on society provide valuable context. - Economics: Discussions about supply and demand, inflation, investment, and the role of consumers in the economy enhance financial literacy. Dedicated Courses: Offering elective courses or workshops specifically focused on personal finance provides deeper dives into crucial topics. - Personal Finance: Cover budgeting, saving, investing, credit, debt management, and insurance. - Entrepreneurship: Introduce concepts like business planning, marketing, financial forecasting, and managing cash flow. In Communities: Community Centers and Libraries: Workshops, seminars, and classes tailored to adults and families provide accessible learning opportunities. - Financial Planning: Cover budgeting, retirement planning, debt management, and estate planning. - Homeownership: Provide guidance on buying, selling, and maintaining a home. - Consumer Protection: Educate individuals about their rights and how to avoid scams. Partnerships with Financial Institutions: Collaborations with banks, credit unions, and financial advisors offer valuable resources, workshops, and financial literacy programs. Consumer Education for Low-Income and Vulnerable Populations Low-income refers to individuals or households with limited financial resources, typically below a certain threshold. Low-income individuals may face challenges like: 1. Limited education and job opportunities 2. Poor living conditions and housing 3. Food insecurity and malnutrition Causes of low income: 1. Unemployment or underemployment 2. Low-paying jobs or minimum wage 3. Limited education or skills 4. Single parenthood or large family size Vulnerable population'' is a term that is used to describe a group of people who possess some sort of disadvantage. elderly people, people with low incomes, homeless people, people in prison, migrant workers, pregnant women, Family Consumer Education: Managing Household Finances and Resources Financial literacy is the ability to understand and manage personal finances effectively. 1. Debt Debt is money you spend that isn’t yours. If you borrow money from the bank, use a credit card, or take out a short-term loan, or a payday loan, you are accumulating debt. Good debt is considered money borrowed for things that are absolutely necessary for making a life e.g. a house and for advancing your money-making potential e.g. an education. Bad debt is considered borrowing money or using a credit card to pay for things you don’t need, such as expensive clothes, hi-tech electronics, eating out at restaurants, going on holidays, etc. 2. Saving Saving is an essential part of financial wellness, a secure present, and a happy future. 3. Budgeting Budgeting is the life skill of planning and managing your money. By understanding exactly where your money goes every month, you are empowered to create an actionable plan by which you can spend less, by curtailing those unnecessary expenses and saving more for the things you need and want. 4. Investing Investing is all about creating and growing the wealth you need to enjoy a financially secure and happy future. It’s about putting your money into something that will make you a profit over time, such as property, retirement funds, and unit trusts Integrating Consumer Education into the Home Economics Curriculum. Integrating consumer education into the home economics curriculum can provide students with essential skills for making informed choices about their personal finances, food, clothing, and overall well-being. Here are some strategies and ideas for effectively incorporating consumer education: Financial Literacy Budgeting: Teach students how to create and manage a personal budget, including setting financial goals, tracking expenses, and understanding savings. Saving and Investment: Cover the basics of saving, including different saving accounts, and introduce concepts related to investing. Food and Nutrition Food Label Literacy: Engage students in learning how to read and interpret food labels, including nutrition facts and ingredient lists. Grocery Shopping Skills: Teach students how to compare product costs, understand unit pricing, and make healthy, budget-friendly choices while shopping. Clothing and Textile Education Consumer Choices in Clothing:Discuss factors influencing clothing purchases, such as quality, price, and sustainability. Fashion and Trends: Analyze the impact of marketing and advertising on consumer behavior regarding clothing. Sustainable Purchasing Eco-Friendly Choices: Raise awareness about environmentally friendly products and the importance of sustainability in consumer choices. Project-Based Learning - Assign real-life projects where students must apply their knowledge, such as creating a meal plan within a budget, planning a shopping list based on nutrient needs, or evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different products. Technology Integration - Use technology to teach students about online shopping, price comparison websites, and apps that aid budgeting and financial planning. Collaborative Learning Opportunities - Organize team projects where students work together to solve consumer-related problems, emphasizing teamwork and communication skills. Assessment and Reflection - Incorporate assessments that allow students to reflect on what they have learned about consumer education and how they can apply these skills in their daily lives.

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