Estimates and uses appropriate units of measure for volume.

Why and How Managers Plan Importance of planning The planing process Benefits of planning Planning and time management Types of PLans used by managers Long term and short term plans Strageic and tactical plans Operational plans Planning Tools and Techiqunes Forecasting Contrigency planning Scenario planning Benchmaking Use of staff planners Implementing Plans to Achive Results Goal setting Goal management Goal alignment Participation and involvement Planning Def: The process of setting objectives and determining how best to accomplish them Planning at Eaton Corporation “Making the hard decision before events force them upon you, an anticipating the future needs of the market before the demand asset itself Objectives and goals Identifity the specific results or desired outcomes that one intends to achieve Plan Def: A statement of action steps to be taken in order to accomplish the objectives (goals) Steps in the planning process: Define your objectives Determine where you stand vis-a-vis objectives Develpo premises reagrdsing future conditions Analyze alternatives and make a plan Implement the plan and evaluate results What are the benefits of planning Improves focus and flexibility Imporves action orteitation Imporves coordination and control Imporves time management Time Managment Personal time management tips Do say “no” to request that distract you form what you should be doing Dont get bogged down inn details that can be addressed later Do screen telephone calls, emails and meeting request Dont let drop in visitors, text messaging use up your time Do prioritize your important and urgent work Dont become calendar bound by letting other control your schedule Do follow priorities; do most important and urgent work first Some 77% of mangers in one survey said that digital age has increased th number of decisions they have to make 43% said there was less time available to make these decisions Types of plans used by Managers What is teh time horizon Long term vs Short term Long term Look three or more years into teh future Short term plans Typically cover one year or less However: the increasing environmental complexity and dynamism of recent years has severely tested the concept of “long-term” planning Plans are subject to frequent revisions Most executives would likely agree that these complexities adn uncertainties challenge how er actually go about planning and how far ahead we can really plan At the very least we can conclude that there is a lot less permanency to long term plans today and that tey are subject to frequent revision Managment reaeracher Eillot Jaques believes tha people vary in their capability to think with different time horizons Types of Plans used by Managers (3 of 5) Strategic plans Set broad, comprehensive and linger term action directions for teh entire organization or major division Vision Clarifies purpose of the organization and what it hopes to be on the future Typical plans Specify how the organizations resources are used to implement strategy Tactical plans in business often take the form of functional plans Functional plans Incidate how different component within the organiztion will help accompnlish the overall strategy Production plans Finacial plans Facilites Plans Logisitc plans Marketing plans Human Resource Plans Operation plans Describe short-term activities to implement strategic plans Policies: Are standing plans that communicate guidelines for decisions Ex: Policies on office romances: The media is quick to report when a top executive or public figures runs into trouble over an office affair. Are there ant policies on office romances? Employer polices on office raltioshiis vary. One survey find teh following: 24% prohibit relationships among employees in the same department 13% prohibit relationships among employees who have the smae supervisor 80% prohibit relationships between supervisors and subordinates 5% have no restrictions on office romances Procedures: Are rules that describe actions to be taken in specific situations Budgets: are single use plans that commit resources to projects or activities Zero based budgets: allocate resources as if each budget were brand new There is no guarantee that any past funding will be renwer. All propsales, old and new, must compete for available funds at teh start of each new budget cycle Forcasting Attempts to predict the future Qualitaive forecasting uses expert opinions Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statiscal aanylsis of historical data dna surveys Contingency planning Identify alternative course of action to take when things go wrong Anticipate changing conditions Contain trigger points to indicate when to activate plan (or a specific course of action) Scenario planning A long term version of contingency planning Identifying alternative future scenarios Plans made for each future scenario Increases organizations flexibility and preparation for future shocks Benchmarking Use of external and internal comparisons to better evaluate current performance Adopting best practices: things people adn organization do that lead to superior performance Staff Planners Experts who assist in all steps of the planning process They help bring focus and expertise to a wide variety of planning tasks Important: Communication between staff planers landline managers is essential for teh success of teh planning process Goal Setting - Always set SMART goal The solution: Goal Aligment Between Team Leader and Team Member Jonintly plan: Set objectives, set standards, choose actions Individually acy: Perform tasks (member), provide support (leader) Jointly control: Review results, discuss implications, renew cycle x4 Collective effort and commitment Participatroy planning Includes in all planning steps that people who will be affected by the plans adn askedd to help implement them Unloacks motivational potential of goal setting Management by objective (MBO) promotes participation Participation increases understanding and acceptance of plan and commitment to success Participatory planning - Number of people involved in teh decision making process Amazon is intensely focused on what it does. It believes in creating tight single-threaded teams, also known as “2 pizza team.” Data and Decision Making What are some of the important competencies managers must have today? Delegate Marketing and technology Manager must have Technological competency Ability to understand new technologies and to use them to their best advantage Information competency Ability to locate, gather, organize and display information for decision-making and problem solving Analytical competency Ability to evaluate and analyze information to make actual decisions and solve real problems What is the difference between Data and Information Data Raw facts and observation Information Data made useful and meaningful for decision-making Important concepts Big data Exists in huge quantities and is difficult to process without sophisticated mathematical and analytical techniques Data production today Bernard Marr is an internationally best-selling author. He helps organizations improve their business performance, use data more intelligently Data mining The process of analyzing data to produce useful information for decision-makers Management Analytics The systematic evaluation and analysis of data to make informed decision Information drives management Bad Data Refers to information that can be erroneous, misleading, and without general formatting The challenge: Can er use the data that is available in the “Big Data” Needs to be valid Can not trust everything out there Being ethical Look at the trends Data is structured and unstructured Data BIg Data = Structured + Unstructured Information Drive Management decision making What are the characteristics of useful information Easy to access If its credible Accurate Characteristics of useful information: Timely High quality Complete Relevant Understandable What about bad data It's not credible Miss information If it is not structured/ organized Bias based on opinions Confusing If its updated Bad data Refers to information that can be erroneous miss What are some examples of Management information system Business intelligence -BI Information systems to extract and report data in organized ways that are useful to decision-makers Executive dashboards Visually update and display key performance metrics (or Key Performance Indicators -KPIs) and information on a real-time basis Information needs in organization External Environment Information exchanges with the external environment Gather intelligence information Provide public information Information needs within the organizations (internal Enviroement) Information exchange within the organization Facilitate decision making Facilitate problem-solving Managers as information processors Continually gather, share and receive information Now as much electronic as it is face-to-face Always on, always connected How many people telecommute at least once a week 70% of people globally work remotely at least once a week, Work at home after covid 19 our forecast Our best estimate it that 25-30% of the workforce will be working form home multiple days a week by the end of 2021 As of 2023, 12.7% of full time employees work from home, while 28.2% work a hybrid model Managers as problem solvers Problem-solving The process of identifying a discrepancy between actual and desired performance and taking action to resolve it Ishikawa Fishbone diagram To identify the cause of problems Decision A choice among possible alternative courses of action Performance threat Something is wrong or has the potential to go wrong Performance opportunity The situation offers the chance for a better future if the right steps are taken Problem-solving approaches or style - from textbook Problem avoiders Inactive in information gathering and solving problems Problem seekers Proactive in anticipation of problems and opportunities and taking appropriate action to gain an advantage Problem solvers Reactive in gathering information and solving problem Managers - can approach problems in a systematic or intuitive manner Systematic thinking approaches problem in rational, step-by-step and analytical fashion Intuitive thinking approaches problems in a flexible and spontaneous fashion Multidimensional thinking- applies both intuitive and systematic thinking Managers face structured and unstructured problems Structure problems Are ones that are familiar, straight forward, and clear with respect to information needs Program decisions apply solutions that are readily available from past experiences to solve structured problems Know how to solve them Familiar Know what we are dealing with Unstructured problems Are ones that are full of ambiguities and information deficiencies Nonprogrammed decisions apply a specific solution to meet the demands of a unique problem Commonly faced by higher-level management Crisis decision making A crisis involves an unexpected problem that can lead to disaster if not resolved quickly and appropriately Ruled for crisis management Figure out what is going on Remember that speed matters Remember that slow counts, too Respect the danger of the unfamiliar Value the skeptic Be ready to “fight fire with fire” Managers make decisions with various amounts of information Certain environment Offers complete information on possible action alternatives and their consequences Risk environment Lacks complete information but offers probabilities of the likely outcomes for possible action alternatives Uncertain environment Lacks so much information that it is difficult to assign probabilities to the likely outcomes of alternative Ex: Certain and uncertain environments: The worldwide Governance Indicators for over 200 countries, comparing distinct environments (Canada-Brazil) Step 1-Identify and define the problem Focuses on information gathering information processing and deliberation Decision objectives should be established What are some common mistakes in definding problems? Common mistakes in defining problems Defining the problem too broadly or too narrowly Focusing on symptoms instead of causes Choosing the wrong problem to deal with Step 2- Generate and Evaluate Alternative Courses of Action Potential solutions are formulated and more information is gathered, data are analyzed, the advantages and disadvantages of alternative solutions are identified Common mistakes: Abandoning the search for alternatives too quickly Step 3- Decide on a preferred course of Action Two different approaches Behavioural model leads to satisficing decisions Classical model les to optimising decisions Behavioural Model Rationality is bounded because: There are limits our thinks capacity Available information (incomplete) Time constraints Step 4-Implement the decision Involves taking action to make sure the solution decided upon becomes a reality Managers need to have the willingness and ability to implement action plans Problems: Lack of participation error should be avoided Step 5 - Evaluate Results Involves comparing actual and desired results The positive and negative consequences of the chosen course of action should be examined If actual results fall short desire results, the manager returns to earlier steps in the decision-making process At all steps, check ethical reasoning Ask these spotlight questions Utility Does teh decision satisfy all constituents or stakeholders Rights Does the description respect the rights and duties of everyone? Justice Is the decision consistent with the canons of justice Caring Is the decision consistent with my responsibilities to care? Issues in decision-making How do errors happen? Heuristics: are strategies for simplifying decision-making Availability Bias: Bases a decision on recent information or events Representativeness bias: Bases a decision on similarity to other situations Anchoring and Adjustment Bias: Bases a decision on incremental adjustment from a prior decision point Framing error: Tring to solve a problem in the context perceived, positive or negative Confirmation Error: Focusing on information that confirms a decision already made Escalating commitment: Continuing a course of action even though it is not working Creative Decision making Creativity is the generation of a novel idea or unique approach that solves a problem or crafts an opportunity Big C: Creativity occurs when extraordinary things are done by exceptional people Little C: Creativity occurs when average people come up with unique ways to deal with daily events and situations The three types of situational creativity drivers Chapter review What are objectives and goals? The specific results or desired outcomes What are the 5 characteristics of great (SMART) goals? Forecasting - Attempts Qualitative forecasting uses options Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statistical analysis of historical data and surveys Scenarios-Oracle’s crystal ball combines qualitative and quantitative methods

Short Quiz in Math 3 estimates the product of 2- to 3-digit numbers and 1- to 2-digit number

Honduras is a Central American nation bordered by Nicaragua, Guatemala, and El Salvador. The Caribbean Sea forms its northern coastline. The Pacific Ocean borders a small southern strip of land. Almanaque Nombre oficial: República de Honduras Área total: 112.090 km2 Población: 9.038.741 Ciudad capital: Tegucigalpa Moneda: lempira Lenguas: español, dialectos amerindios Early History Explorer Christopher Columbus came to Honduras in 1502 on his fourth trip to the New World. As was the case in North America, Honduras, in Central America, had been home to many native indigenous groups including the Sumu and Lenca. Some estimates suggest an indigenous population of up to 2,000,000 before the Europeans arrived. Among these indigenous groups were the Maya. Their civilization spread from the Yucatán area of Mexico to Honduras’ ancient city of Copán. Spain’s conquest of Honduras began in 1525, but it was not easy. It took until 1539 to fully conquer it. There were conflicts with the native population, who were forced into labor. Many died from disease and abuse. Others were enslaved and sent to the Caribbean islands. In addition, there were pirate attacks and in-fighting among the Spaniards. Phawat/Shutterstock Gold and silver deposits were discovered in Honduras in the 1530s, attracting more settlers. By the mid-16th century, mining was an important industry, mainly in the towns of Gracias and Comayagua. More native labor was needed, taking its toll on the dwindling indigenous population. As a solution, enslaved Africans were introduced in the 1540s. This was well before 1619, when enslaved Africans first arrived in Jamestown in the American colonies. The 17th century was filled with conflicts, primarily between the Spanish and the British. Britain wanted to establish colonies on the Caribbean coast of Honduras. They eventually seized the coast with help from the native Sambo and Miskito peoples. However, Spain later regained control. Independence In the early 1800s in Honduras, resentment toward Spain grew. One reason was that Honduras was subject to more taxes to help pay for conflicts that were happening between Spain and France. Other Spanish colonies were also increasingly resentful toward Spain. In 1776 in North America, the 13 colonies banded together to declare their independence from Britain. Similarly, Honduras joined other Central American provinces. Together, they declared independence from Spain on September 15, 1821. Honduras briefly became a part of Mexico, but in 1823, it became independent from Mexico. It then joined the United Provinces of Central America. This included other former Spanish colonies: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. But the federation did not last, partially due to divisions in political beliefs. In 1838, Honduras declared its independence from the federation. By the early 1900s, the United States had economic interests in Honduras. American fruit corporations like the Standard Fruit Company and United Fruit Company began investing in Honduras to export bananas. To protect American investments, the United States became more involved in Honduras’ political affairs. When Nicaragua appeared to threaten the stability in Honduras, US President Taft sent forces to Honduras to protect American interests. The Great Depression caused economic havoc in the United States and elsewhere. In Honduras, this meant economic problems and political turmoil. During this time, General Tiburcio Carías Andino was elected president, in 1932. He worked to strengthen the military and pay off Honduran debt. Yet he also worked to gather and maintain his own power. He changed the constitution so that he could extend his term in office as president until 1949. His advanced age and pressure from the United States forced him to allow free elections in 1948. General Francisco Morazán In 1823, Honduras joined the United Provinces of Central America. In 1830, Tegucigalpa-born General José Francisco Morazán was elected president of the federation. He remained president until just before the federation disbanded in 1840. aalezk/Shutterstock Morazán favored liberal policies and the reduced power of the church. Morazán was a self-educated man. He recognized the importance of education and the need for schools in Honduras. He believed that girls and boys should have an equal opportunity for education. During his presidency, he tried to make improvements in education. He opened schools that were free to attend. In addition to improving education, he established a system of trial by jury. It was based on the Livingston Code, created in Louisiana. This was a set of reforms to the system of legal punishment. Today, Honduras celebrates the Day of the Honduran Soldier on October 3, Morazán’s birthday. This holiday honors Morazán for his fight for democracy, liberalism, and the nation. Modern Honduras The last half of the 20th century was a political rollercoaster. There were various coups (government takeovers), conflicts, and changing leaders. Starting in 1963, Honduras was primarily led by military governments. This continued for almost 20 years. In 1969, Honduras fought a four-day war with El Salvador. The conflict was over immigration and the shared border. Though the war was brief, the two nations didn’t sign a peace treaty until 1980. With the election of president Roberto Suazo Córdova in 1981, Honduras returned to a civilian government. In the 1980s Honduras was tangled in conflicts of Nicaragua and El Salvador, partly because of the United States. Nicaraguan Contras, who wanted to overthrow the Sandinista government in Nicaragua, were using US-approved bases in Honduras. The United States was also running training camps in Honduras for Salvadoran forces facing their own civil war. This sparked anti-American protests and a desire to reduce the US presence in Honduras. Over the next few decades, Honduras continued to experience political instability. In 2009, President Manuel Zelaya was removed from power by a military coup. People were upset because he called for a referendum to change the constitution. The international community condemned this coup. As a result, Honduras cut diplomatic ties with several countries. In 2010, the United States recognized President Porfirio Lobo Sosa as a democratically elected leader. He was followed by Juan Orlando Hernández in 2014. However, protests in 2015 called for his resignation over claims of campaign fraud. In 2017, Orlando Hernández was re-elected in a disputed election.

YouGov found 44 per cent were proud of Britain's history of colonialism, with 21 per cent regretting it happened and 23 per cent holding neither view. The same poll also found 43 per cent believed the British Empire was a good thing, 19 per cent said it was bad and 25 per cent said it was "neither". At its height in 1922, the British empire governed a fifth of the world's population and a quarter of the world's total land area. Although the proponents of Empire say it brought various economic developments to parts of the world it controlled, critics point to massacres, famines and the use of concentration camps by the British Empire. 1. Boer concentration camps During the Second Boer War (1899-1902), the British rounded up around a sixth of the Boer population - mainly women and children - and detained them in camps, which were overcrowded and prone to outbreaks of disease, with scant food rations. Of the 107,000 people interned in the camps, 27,927 Boers died, along with an unknown number of black Africans. 2. Amritsar massacre When peaceful protesters defied a government order and demonstrated against British colonial rule in Amritsar, India, on 13 April 1919, they were blocked inside the walled Jallianwala Gardens and fired upon by Gurkha soldiers. The soldiers, under the orders of Brigadier Reginald Dyer, kept firing until they ran out of ammunition, killing between 379 and 1,000 protesters and injuring another 1,100 within 10 minutes. Brigadier Dyer was later lauded a hero by the British public, who raised £26,000 for him as a thank you. 3. Partitioning of India In 1947, Cyril Radcliffe was tasked with drawing the border between India and the newly created state of Pakistan over the course of a single lunch. After Cyril Radcliffe split the subcontinent along religious lines, uprooting over 10 million people, Hindus in Pakistan and Muslims in India were forced to escape their homes as Some estimates suggest up to one million people lost their lives in sectarian killings. 4. Mau Mau Uprising Thousands of elderly Kenyans, who claim British colonial forces mistreated, raped and tortured them during the Mau Mau Uprising (1951-1960), have launched a £200m damages claim against the UK Government. Members of the Kikuyu tribe were detained in camps, since described as "Britain's gulags" or concentration camps, where they allege they were systematically tortured and suffered serious sexual assault. Estimates of the deaths vary widely: historian David Anderson estimates there were 20,000, whereas Caroline Elkins believes up to 100,000 could have died. 5. Famines in India Between 12 and 29 million Indians died of starvation while it was under the control of the British Empire, as millions of tons of wheat were exported to Britain as famine raged in India. In 1943, up to four million Bengalis starved to death when Winston Churchill diverted food to British soldiers and countries such as Greece while a deadly famine swept through Bengal. Talking about the Bengal famine in 1943, Churchill said: “I hate Indians. They are a beastly people with a beastly religion. The famine was their own fault for breeding like rabbits.”

Figure 18-11 represents the amount of energy stored as organic material in each trophic level in an ecosystem. The pyramid shape of the diagram indicates the low percentage of energy transfer from one level to the next. On average, 10 percent of the total energy consumed in one trophic level is incor- porated into the organisms in the next. Why is the percentage of energy transfer so low? One reason is that some of the organisms in a trophic level escape being eaten. They eventually die and become food for decomposers, but the energy contained in their bodies does not pass to a higher trophic level. Even when an organism is eaten, some of the molecules in its body will be in a form that the consumer cannot break down and use. For example, a cougar cannot extract energy from the antlers, hooves, and hair of a deer. Also, the energy used by prey for cellu- lar respiration cannot be used by predators to synthesize new bio- mass. Finally, no transformation or transfer of energy is 100 percent efficient. Every time energy is transformed, such as during the reactions of metabolism, some energy is lost as heat. Limitations of Trophic Levels The low rate of energy transfer between trophic levels explains why ecosystems rarely contain more than a few trophic levels. Because only about 10 percent of the energy available at one trophic level is transferred to the next trophic level, there is not enough energy in the top trophic level to support more levels. Organisms at the lowest trophic level are usually much more abundant than organisms at the highest level. In Africa, for exam- ple, you will see about 1,000 zebras, gazelles, and other herbivores for every lion or leopard you see, and there are far more grasses and shrubs than there are herbivores. Higher trophic levels con- tain less energy, so, they can support fewer individuals.A population is a group of organisms that belong to the same species and live in a particular place at the same time. All of the bass living in a pond during a certain period of time make up a pop- ulation because they are isolated in the pond and do not interact with bass living in other ponds. The boundaries of a population may be imposed by a feature of the environment, such as a lake shore, or they can be arbitrarily chosen to simplify a study of the population. The humans shown in Figure 19-1 are part of the pop- ulation of a city. The properties of populations differ from those of individuals. An individual may be born, it may reproduce, or it may die. A population study focuses on a population as a whole—how many individuals are born, how many die, and so on. Population Size A population’s size is the number of individuals that the population contains. Size is a fundamental and important population property but can be difficult to measure directly. If a population is small and composed of immobile organisms, such as plants, its size can be determined simply by counting individuals. Often, though, individ- uals are too abundant, too widespread, or too mobile to be counted easily, and scientists must estimate the number of individuals in the population. Suppose that a scientist wants to know how many oak trees live in a 10 km2 patch of forest. Instead of searching the entire patch of forest and counting all the oak trees, the scientist could count the trees in a smaller section of the forest, such as a 1 km2 area. The scientist could then use this value to estimate the population of the larger area. SECTION 1 OBJECTIVES ● Describe the main properties that scientists measure when they study populations. ● Compare the three general patterns of population dispersion. ● Identify the measurements used to describe changing populations. ● Compare the three general types of survivorship curves. VOCABULARY population population density dispersion birth rate death rate life expectancy age structure survivorship curve FIGURE 19-1 A population can be widely distributed, as Earth’s human population is, or confined to a small area, as species of fish in a lake are. Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. 382 CHAPTER 19 If the small patch contains 25 oaks, an area 10 times larger would likely contain 10 times as many oak trees. A similar kind of sampling technique might be used to estimate the size of the pop- ulation shown in Figure 19-2. To use this kind of estimate, the sci- entist must assume that the distribution of individuals in the entire population is the same as that in the sampled group. Estimates of population size are based on many such assumptions, so all esti- mates have the potential for error. Population Density Population density measures how crowded a population is. This measurement is always expressed as the number of individuals per unit of area or volume. For example, the population density of humans in the United States is about 30 people per square kilome- ter. Table 19-1 shows the population sizes and densities of humans in several countries in 2003. These estimates are calculated for the total land area. Some areas of a country may be sparsely popu- lated, while other areas are very densely populated. Dispersion A third population property is dispersion (di-SPUHR-zhuhn). Dispersion is the spatial distribution of individuals within the popu- lation. In a clumped distribution, individuals are clustered together. In a uniform distribution, individuals are separated by a fairly con- sistent distance. In a random distribution, each individual’s location is independent of the locations of other individuals in the popula- tion. Figure 19-3 illustrates the three possible patterns of dispersion. Clumped distributions often occur when resources such as food or living space are clumped. Clumped distributions may also occur because of a species’ social behavior, such as when animals gather into herds or flocks. Uniform distributions may result from social behavior in which individuals within the same habitat stay as far away from each other as possible. For example, a bird may locate its nest so as to maximize the distance from the nests of other birds. These migrating wildebeests in East Africa are too numerous and mobile to be counted. Scientists must use sampling methods at several locations to monitor changes in the population size of the animals. FIGURE 19-2 TABLE 19-1 Population Size and Density of Some Countries Population size Population density Country (in millions) (in individuals/km2) China 1,289 135 India 1,069 325 United States 292 30 Russia 146 8 Japan 128 337 Mexico 105 54 Kenya 32 54 Australia 20 3 dispersion from the Latin dis-, meaning “out,” and spargere, meaning “to scatter” Word Roots and Origins Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. POPULATIONS 383 The social interactions of birds called gannets, which are shown in Figure 19-3b, result in a uniform distribution. Each gannet chooses a small nesting area on the coast and defends it from other gannets. In this way, each gannet tries to maximize its distance from all of its neighbors, which causes a uniform distribution of individuals. Few populations are truly randomly dispersed. Rather, they show degrees of clumping or uniformity. The dispersion pattern of a population sometimes depends on the scale at which the popu- lation is observed. The gannets shown in Figure 19-3b are uni- formly distributed on a scale of a few meters. However, if the entire island on which the gannets live is observed, the distribution appears clumped because the birds live only near the shore. POPULATION DYNAMICS All populations are dynamic—they change in size and composition over time. To understand these changes, scientists must know more than the population’s size, density, and dispersion. One important measure is the birth rate, the number of births occur- ring in a period of time. In the United States, for example, there are about 4 million births per year. A second important measure is the death rate, or mortality rate, which is the number of deaths in a

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