What people are tied for climbing Mt. Everest the most?

Apa Shurba and Phurba Tashi Sherpa

Apa Shurba and Sherpa Nawang Gombu

Sherpa Nawang Gombu and Phurba Tashi Sherpa

Tenzing Norgay and Betsy Cowles

Extreme Measures of Climbing Mount Everest

We found you were making a quiz on the subject of "What is a rubric? A tool comprising a set of criteria (with possible levels of performance quality on the criteria) developed to assess learners’ work, from written to oral to visual. It is used tomeasureperformance,suchastheprocess of doing something (e.g.,playing a musical instrument, making a speech) or products of the learners’ work (e.g., concept map, laboratory report, bookshelf) (Brookhart, 2013). BENEFITS OF USING RUBRICS Support authentic assessment Reflects how well learners are able to apply knowledge inthe real-world context. Communicate expectations Gives learners an idea of what is expected of them. It is especially useful when the rubrics are communicated to the learners before they are assessed. Improve performance Explicit criteria and performance level descriptions allow learners to understand the desired performance. Learners are able to assess themselves by referring to the specific criteria and performance-level descriptions. Provide informative feedback Instructors are able to provide constructive feedback to learners on their weaknesses and strengths. Promote thinking andlearning 4 Provide informative feedback Instructors are able to provide constructive feedback to learners on their weaknesses and strengths. Learners are able to review and revise their work,thus reflecting on their learning experiences. Ensure fairness Learner performance assessed fairly given its objectivity. It helps avoid disputes between learners and instructors about the scores/grades achieved. TYPES OF RUBRIC ANALYTIC It consists of individual criterion with corresponding descriptor of performance. HOLISTIC It consists of performance descriptors that are placed together to refeclet to overalll performance. ANATOMY OF ANANALYTIC RUBRIC Rating scales with corresponding scores or weights The row represents the criteria for the desired performance, while the column represents the evaluation score. Under the rating scale (corresponding weights orscorescanbeassigned),theperformance descriptors are explicitly stated ANATOMYOF AHOLISTICRUBRIC Descriptions: It comprises the rating scale (corresponding weights or scores can be assigned) in the row while the combined desired performance descriptors are placed in the column. Description of the task The purpose of the assignment is to assess learner’s cognitive and analytic skills in applying knowledge gained and constructed throughout the course Diffusion of Innovation,bywatching the Surrogates movieand writing ananalytical review of the movie in the context of innovation diffusion.Iwant to provide learners with informative feedback on their cognitive and analytic skills such as the following: applying the concepts of innovation diffusion,making judgmentson the scenes related to innovation diffusion identified from the movie,selecting and critiquing theories of innovation diffusion and making connections between the theories,aswell asarguingand proposing necessary solutions to the problemss hown in the movie. ESTABLISHING ALTERNATIVEASSESSMENTINHIGHEREDUCATION VALIDITYAND RELIABILITYOF RUBRICS. Validity Measuring what is supossedto be measured. Reability Yielding consists results. Instruments that are used in the alternative assessment must be aligned to the learning outcomes and measure well what it intends to measure (valid) and produce consistent scores (reliable). The valid instrument will manifest the true ability (latent trait) of learners and permit appropriate inferences to be made about a specific group of people for specific purposes. TYPES OF VALIDITY FACE VALIDITY Simple form of validity thatapplies a superficial and subjective assessment whether the instrument measures what it is supposed to measure. CONTENT VALIDITY Refers to the extent to which the items on a measure assess the same content or how wellthe content material was sampled inthe measure. CONSTRUCT VALIDITY Refers to the extent to which the test may be said to measure a theoretical construct or trait. CONCURRENT VALIDITY Refers to the extent to which scores onanewmeasure are related to scores from a criterion measure administered at the same time. PREDICTIVE VALIDITY Refers to the uses of the scores from the new measure to predict performance on a criterion measure administered ata later time. STEPS TO CONSIDER WHEN ESTABLISHING CONTENT VALIDITY Calculate the level of expert agreeement for the content validity, get expert to verfy. Interview the expert ,make meta contentdata análisis from literatura. STEPS TO CONSIDER WHEN ESTABLISHING CONSTRUCCT VALIDITY Administer the instrument for alll learners, revise any item necccesay, run an apropriates statistical analiysis, administerthe instrument to learners as a pilot test . CONSTRUCTMAP Morepreciseconceptthan construct. Ranges from one extreme to another(fromhightolow,small tolarge,positivetonegative,or strongtoweak). Identifiesthepositionofthe respondentsinthisrange. Representativenessofsampling (questions and ability of respondents). EXAMPLEO FACONSTRUCTMAP:AFFECTIVE LEVELOF AFFECTIVE VARIABLES EXAMPLESOFITEMSIN MEASURINGTEAM WORKING SKILLS 5. Characterisation Learnersvolunteerstodothe groupworks. 4. Organisation Learners are willing to help others,althoughitisnottheir scopeoftask. 3. Valuing Learners respect other team members’opinionwhendoing thediscussion. 2. Responding Learnergivescooperationwhen neededingroupworks. 1. Receiving Learneracceptsthediversityof races and nationalities among groupmembers. EXAMPLEOFACONSTRUCTMAP:PSYCHOMOTOR LEVELOF PSYCHOMOTOR VARIABLES EXAMPLESOFITEMSIN MEASURING DIGITAL SKILLS 7.Origination Learnerscanmodifytheirowndevicesto performbetter. 6.Adaptation Learnerscansolveandtroubleshootthe problemwhileusingthecomputer. 5.ComplexOvertResponse Learnerscanusethecomputercompetently. 4.Mechanism Learners can use the computer independently,butstillmakeminorerrors. 3.GuidedResponses Learnerscanusethecomputer,butstill needguidance. 2.Set Learnersarereadytousethecomputer. 1.Perception Learnerscanobservehowtousecomputer. EXAMPLEOFACONSTRUCTMAP:COGNITIVE LEVELOF COGNITIV E VARIABLES EXAMPLESOFITEMS IN MEASURING THINKINGSKILLS 6. Creating Learners are able to suggest anewmodelorframeworkof learningdigitalcommunity. 5. Evaluating Learners are able to judge the impactofthescenariotowards educationperspective. 4. Analysing Learnerscandifferentiate the factsusingafew theories. 3. Applying Learnerscansolveproblems usingthefactsgiven. 2. Understanding Learnersareabletoexplainthe factsusingtheirownwords. 1. Remembering Learnersonlymemorisethe. Direction of Increasing “X” Learners Learners with high “X” Learners with mid range “X” Learners with low “X” Responses to Item Item response indicate highest level of X Item response indicate higher level of X Item response indicate lower level of X The construct map shows the lower ability students are in line with the lower level of items. This shows that when educators plan to develop an instrument, it Item response indicate lowest level of X Direction of Decreasing “X” is crucial to create an item difficulty thatrepresents learners’ ability. Learners’ ability Learners who engage in level characterisation Learners who engage in level organisation Learners who engage in level valuing Learners who engage in level responding Learners who engage in level receiving Direction of Decreasing“X” MEASURINGCONSTRUCTVALIDITY Unlike content validity, this construct validity can be analysed using statistical analysis. Use Exploratory FactorAnalysis [EFA], Confirmatory FactorAnalysis [CFA] or Unidimensionality to confirm all items are measuring the right construct and the raw variance explained for the latent variables is sufficient. Gap initem map also can show accuracy in construct validity. RELIABILITY The degree to which test scores are consistent over repeated administrations of the same/ equivalent test and therefore considered dependable and repeatable for an individual learner.A test thatproduces highly consistent and stable results (i.e. relative free from random error) is said to be highly reliable. TYPESOFRELIABILITY Test-retest demonstrates the stability of a measure over time 01 Internal consistency most of the items within a rating scale of a concept show consistency of scoring. Inter-rater the extent to which two or more independent raters are consistent in observing, recording and scoring data (should be 70% or higher agreement) 04 Intra-rater relies on one rater to rate an object or event twice (70% or higher of agreement) FACTORSAFFECTING VALIDITYANDHOWTO INCREASEVALIDITY? FACTORS AFFECTING VALIDITY HOWTO INCREASE VALIDITY? 1. Inaccuracy of items in measuringtheoutcomes 1. Vetting session to get reviewsfromtheexpert. 2. Pooritemsdevelopment 2. Followtheformatandtips indevelopinggooditems. 3. Unclearinstructions 3. Do pilot testing to measuretheusabilityof thetest. 4. Interveningevents 4. Controltheinternalthreats validityfactors. 5. Itemsdifficultyisnot suitableforthelearners 5. Create a construct map toensurethereisanitem thatrepresentslearners ability. FACTORS AFFECTING RELIABILIT Y HOWTOINCREASERELIABILITY? 1. TestLength 1. Thetestlengthshouldbeappropriate withtestdifficulty. 2. Test retest interval 2. Suggesteddurationisbetween3 weeksto2months. 3. Variability of scores 3. Doconstructmaptoensuretheitems aresuitablewithlearners’ability. 4. Guessing 4. Penalisetheguessinganswers.You alsocandetecteitherthelearnersare guessing or not using the statistical analysis named guessing analysis andpersonfitanalysis. 5. Inconsistency score from different raters 5. Appointtheratertomarkcertain questionsforalllearners(Thisalways happen when you have more than onesectionandhavemorethanone lecturer). CONCLUSION Coming back to the issue of validity and reliability in assessment, there is a need for educators to put an effort to ensurethattheitemsintheformofquestionsorinstructions arenotonlyclearbutalsoabletomeasurewhatitisintended tomeasurebasedontherelatedlearningoutcomes. Establishingvalidityandreliabilityofinstrumentscan provide educators with some indications of the quality of the measuring tools being used. Valid and reliable instruments enabletheeducatorstocontinuouslyusethemeasuringtools withoutreservation. Reliablenot valid Precisenot Accurate Reliableand valid Preciseand Accurate NotReliable butvalid NotPrecisebut Accurate NotReliable butNotvalid NotPrecisebut NotAccurate 94 ". Would you like to continue making it or start afresh?

What is a rubric? A tool comprising a set of criteria (with possible levels of performance quality on the criteria) developed to assess learners’ work, from written to oral to visual. It is used tomeasureperformance,suchastheprocess of doing something (e.g.,playing a musical instrument, making a speech) or products of the learners’ work (e.g., concept map, laboratory report, bookshelf) (Brookhart, 2013). BENEFITS OF USING RUBRICS Support authentic assessment Reflects how well learners are able to apply knowledge inthe real-world context. Communicate expectations Gives learners an idea of what is expected of them. It is especially useful when the rubrics are communicated to the learners before they are assessed. Improve performance Explicit criteria and performance level descriptions allow learners to understand the desired performance. Learners are able to assess themselves by referring to the specific criteria and performance-level descriptions. Provide informative feedback Instructors are able to provide constructive feedback to learners on their weaknesses and strengths. Promote thinking andlearning 4 Provide informative feedback Instructors are able to provide constructive feedback to learners on their weaknesses and strengths. Learners are able to review and revise their work,thus reflecting on their learning experiences. Ensure fairness Learner performance assessed fairly given its objectivity. It helps avoid disputes between learners and instructors about the scores/grades achieved. TYPES OF RUBRIC ANALYTIC It consists of individual criterion with corresponding descriptor of performance. HOLISTIC It consists of performance descriptors that are placed together to refeclet to overalll performance. ANATOMY OF ANANALYTIC RUBRIC Rating scales with corresponding scores or weights The row represents the criteria for the desired performance, while the column represents the evaluation score. Under the rating scale (corresponding weights orscorescanbeassigned),theperformance descriptors are explicitly stated ANATOMYOF AHOLISTICRUBRIC Descriptions: It comprises the rating scale (corresponding weights or scores can be assigned) in the row while the combined desired performance descriptors are placed in the column. Description of the task The purpose of the assignment is to assess learner’s cognitive and analytic skills in applying knowledge gained and constructed throughout the course Diffusion of Innovation,bywatching the Surrogates movieand writing ananalytical review of the movie in the context of innovation diffusion.Iwant to provide learners with informative feedback on their cognitive and analytic skills such as the following: applying the concepts of innovation diffusion,making judgmentson the scenes related to innovation diffusion identified from the movie,selecting and critiquing theories of innovation diffusion and making connections between the theories,aswell asarguingand proposing necessary solutions to the problemss hown in the movie. ESTABLISHING ALTERNATIVEASSESSMENTINHIGHEREDUCATION VALIDITYAND RELIABILITYOF RUBRICS. Validity Measuring what is supossedto be measured. Reability Yielding consists results. Instruments that are used in the alternative assessment must be aligned to the learning outcomes and measure well what it intends to measure (valid) and produce consistent scores (reliable). The valid instrument will manifest the true ability (latent trait) of learners and permit appropriate inferences to be made about a specific group of people for specific purposes. TYPES OF VALIDITY FACE VALIDITY Simple form of validity thatapplies a superficial and subjective assessment whether the instrument measures what it is supposed to measure. CONTENT VALIDITY Refers to the extent to which the items on a measure assess the same content or how wellthe content material was sampled inthe measure. CONSTRUCT VALIDITY Refers to the extent to which the test may be said to measure a theoretical construct or trait. CONCURRENT VALIDITY Refers to the extent to which scores onanewmeasure are related to scores from a criterion measure administered at the same time. PREDICTIVE VALIDITY Refers to the uses of the scores from the new measure to predict performance on a criterion measure administered ata later time. STEPS TO CONSIDER WHEN ESTABLISHING CONTENT VALIDITY Calculate the level of expert agreeement for the content validity, get expert to verfy. Interview the expert ,make meta contentdata análisis from literatura. STEPS TO CONSIDER WHEN ESTABLISHING CONSTRUCCT VALIDITY Administer the instrument for alll learners, revise any item necccesay, run an apropriates statistical analiysis, administerthe instrument to learners as a pilot test . CONSTRUCTMAP Morepreciseconceptthan construct. Ranges from one extreme to another(fromhightolow,small tolarge,positivetonegative,or strongtoweak). Identifiesthepositionofthe respondentsinthisrange. Representativenessofsampling (questions and ability of respondents). EXAMPLEO FACONSTRUCTMAP:AFFECTIVE LEVELOF AFFECTIVE VARIABLES EXAMPLESOFITEMSIN MEASURINGTEAM WORKING SKILLS 5. Characterisation Learnersvolunteerstodothe groupworks. 4. Organisation Learners are willing to help others,althoughitisnottheir scopeoftask. 3. Valuing Learners respect other team members’opinionwhendoing thediscussion. 2. Responding Learnergivescooperationwhen neededingroupworks. 1. Receiving Learneracceptsthediversityof races and nationalities among groupmembers. EXAMPLEOFACONSTRUCTMAP:PSYCHOMOTOR LEVELOF PSYCHOMOTOR VARIABLES EXAMPLESOFITEMSIN MEASURING DIGITAL SKILLS 7.Origination Learnerscanmodifytheirowndevicesto performbetter. 6.Adaptation Learnerscansolveandtroubleshootthe problemwhileusingthecomputer. 5.ComplexOvertResponse Learnerscanusethecomputercompetently. 4.Mechanism Learners can use the computer independently,butstillmakeminorerrors. 3.GuidedResponses Learnerscanusethecomputer,butstill needguidance. 2.Set Learnersarereadytousethecomputer. 1.Perception Learnerscanobservehowtousecomputer. EXAMPLEOFACONSTRUCTMAP:COGNITIVE LEVELOF COGNITIV E VARIABLES EXAMPLESOFITEMS IN MEASURING THINKINGSKILLS 6. Creating Learners are able to suggest anewmodelorframeworkof learningdigitalcommunity. 5. Evaluating Learners are able to judge the impactofthescenariotowards educationperspective. 4. Analysing Learnerscandifferentiate the factsusingafew theories. 3. Applying Learnerscansolveproblems usingthefactsgiven. 2. Understanding Learnersareabletoexplainthe factsusingtheirownwords. 1. Remembering Learnersonlymemorisethe. Direction of Increasing “X” Learners Learners with high “X” Learners with mid range “X” Learners with low “X” Responses to Item Item response indicate highest level of X Item response indicate higher level of X Item response indicate lower level of X The construct map shows the lower ability students are in line with the lower level of items. This shows that when educators plan to develop an instrument, it Item response indicate lowest level of X Direction of Decreasing “X” is crucial to create an item difficulty thatrepresents learners’ ability. Learners’ ability Learners who engage in level characterisation Learners who engage in level organisation Learners who engage in level valuing Learners who engage in level responding Learners who engage in level receiving Direction of Decreasing“X” MEASURINGCONSTRUCTVALIDITY Unlike content validity, this construct validity can be analysed using statistical analysis. Use Exploratory FactorAnalysis [EFA], Confirmatory FactorAnalysis [CFA] or Unidimensionality to confirm all items are measuring the right construct and the raw variance explained for the latent variables is sufficient. Gap initem map also can show accuracy in construct validity. RELIABILITY The degree to which test scores are consistent over repeated administrations of the same/ equivalent test and therefore considered dependable and repeatable for an individual learner.A test thatproduces highly consistent and stable results (i.e. relative free from random error) is said to be highly reliable. TYPESOFRELIABILITY Test-retest demonstrates the stability of a measure over time 01 Internal consistency most of the items within a rating scale of a concept show consistency of scoring. Inter-rater the extent to which two or more independent raters are consistent in observing, recording and scoring data (should be 70% or higher agreement) 04 Intra-rater relies on one rater to rate an object or event twice (70% or higher of agreement) FACTORSAFFECTING VALIDITYANDHOWTO INCREASEVALIDITY? FACTORS AFFECTING VALIDITY HOWTO INCREASE VALIDITY? 1. Inaccuracy of items in measuringtheoutcomes 1. Vetting session to get reviewsfromtheexpert. 2. Pooritemsdevelopment 2. Followtheformatandtips indevelopinggooditems. 3. Unclearinstructions 3. Do pilot testing to measuretheusabilityof thetest. 4. Interveningevents 4. Controltheinternalthreats validityfactors. 5. Itemsdifficultyisnot suitableforthelearners 5. Create a construct map toensurethereisanitem thatrepresentslearners ability. FACTORS AFFECTING RELIABILIT Y HOWTOINCREASERELIABILITY? 1. TestLength 1. Thetestlengthshouldbeappropriate withtestdifficulty. 2. Test retest interval 2. Suggesteddurationisbetween3 weeksto2months. 3. Variability of scores 3. Doconstructmaptoensuretheitems aresuitablewithlearners’ability. 4. Guessing 4. Penalisetheguessinganswers.You alsocandetecteitherthelearnersare guessing or not using the statistical analysis named guessing analysis andpersonfitanalysis. 5. Inconsistency score from different raters 5. Appointtheratertomarkcertain questionsforalllearners(Thisalways happen when you have more than onesectionandhavemorethanone lecturer). CONCLUSION Coming back to the issue of validity and reliability in assessment, there is a need for educators to put an effort to ensurethattheitemsintheformofquestionsorinstructions arenotonlyclearbutalsoabletomeasurewhatitisintended tomeasurebasedontherelatedlearningoutcomes. Establishingvalidityandreliabilityofinstrumentscan provide educators with some indications of the quality of the measuring tools being used. Valid and reliable instruments enabletheeducatorstocontinuouslyusethemeasuringtools withoutreservation. Reliablenot valid Precisenot Accurate Reliableand valid Preciseand Accurate NotReliable butvalid NotPrecisebut Accurate NotReliable butNotvalid NotPrecisebut NotAccurate 94

Make a multiple choice quiz for my year 8 science students based on the science in this transcript from a video: 3°C 0:04 It can be the difference between snow and sleet 0:08 Wearing a jacket or not 0:11 In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant 0:15 But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic 0:20 Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 0:25 3°C of warming is really disastrous 0:28 The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there 0:32 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C 0:40 This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with 0:46 Children born today... 0:47 ...are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents 0:52 If global temperatures do rise by 3°C... 0:55 ...what would their world look like? Climate change is already having devastating effects 1:03 Rising sea levels 1:05 Desertification 1:07 Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world 1:11 While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction... 1:14 ...this film will show the scenario we all face... 1:17 ...unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels 1:30 In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear 1:35 The slums of Bangladesh’s capital are filling up with climate migrants 1:41 Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh 1:46 There, like many other parts of the country... 1:49 ...rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers... 1:53 ...are washing away people’s homes 1:56 Many, like her, have lost everything 2:00 Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land 2:03 There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house 2:08 There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home 2:12 We used to eat the fruit from our own trees 2:18 I can’t eat them now because they don't exist anymore 2:21 Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka 2:26 Life was much better back home 2:29 It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable 2:33 We didn’t have the time to save anything at all 2:38 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minara’s life 2:45 It’s one of the reasons why so many migrants like her... 2:47 ...are moving to the city each year... 2:50 ...nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate 2:53 And climate models show there could be much worse to come How climate modelling works 3:02 Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj... 3:04 ...has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios... 3:08 ...for the United Nations 3:10 The models we use to carry out this exercise... 3:13 ...really represent the state of the art... 3:15 ...of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading 3:19 Joeri’s projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world 3:26 Here this is the 3°C level... 3:28 ...and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies... 3:32 ...we would hit 3°C by the end of the century 3:36 This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at 3:40 Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept 3:44 The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept... 3:47 ...and net-zero targets are met 3:50 Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century... 3:54 ...there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead 3:59 One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance... 4:03 ...that the plane will crash Nowhere is safe from global warming 4:07 A rise of 3°C would affect everyone 4:10 Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldn’t be immune to the consequences 4:15 European capitals like Paris and Berlin... 4:18 ...would bake under more extreme heatwaves 4:22 Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate 4:27 In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events 4:33 Cities are hotter than the places around them... 4:36 ...they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding 4:39 And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you can’t in the countryside 4:46 And because of their denser populations... 4:49 ...disasters in a city affect far more people 4:52 Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming 4:56 But they have the means to adapt 4:59 Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places 5:03 They have a lot of amenities 5:05 A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world... 5:08 …wouldn’t necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world 5:12 But a city that hasn’t prepared for these sort of eventualities... 5:16 ...that might be a really nasty place The impact of prolonged droughts 5:20 So far, many developed cities have got off lightly... 5:24 ...but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately 5:29 Smallholders—small-scale farmers—are particularly vulnerable to climate change 5:35 And there are over 600 million around the world 5:38 Smallholders with farms under two hectares... 5:40 ...produce around a third of the global food supply 5:46 Central America’s “Dry Corridor”... 5:48 ...supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms 5:53 Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea... 5:56 ...the area is prone to droughts 6:08 Israel Ramírez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala 6:12 Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe 6:18 This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver 6:23 He depends on his crops of corn and beans 6:26 But they’re getting harder to grow 6:30 The surrounding mountains... 6:32 ...used to provide us with native food... 6:38 ...and now that isn’t an option anymore... 6:41 ...due to climate change and its effects 6:46 Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty 6:52 The impact of all of this for us... 6:59 ...malnutrition among children 7:03 We’ve lost a few 7:07 For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before 7:16 The plant dries up and can’t provide us... 7:19 ...with the necessary food provision 7:24 Severe droughts in Central America... 7:26 ...are now four times more likely than they were last century 7:30 Many families from here have gone to the States 7:37 The economic despair and debts... 7:44 ...have pushed many people from this community to do this journey 7:53 Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 7:59 Not all of this has been due to climate change 8:02 But longer droughts would force even more to move 8:05 In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region... 8:09 ...could drop by up to 14% 8:12 At 3°C, over a quarter of the world’s population... 8:16 ...could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year 8:19 Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding 8:24 But for some, too much water will be the problem 8:29 10% of the world’s population lives on a coastline... 8:32 ...that’s less than 10 metres above sea level 8:35 For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster 8:40 By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels 8:46 Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable... 8:49 ...with up to up to a third of the population displaced 8:54 And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives 9:04 You can see the graveyard there, it’s all under water now... 9:08 ...due to this rising sea level and climate change 9:15 The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea 9:19 Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear 9:24 Relatives’ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water 9:29 We have been asked by the government to relocate... 9:32 ...but no one wants to relocate... 9:34 ...because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea 9:39 This is the place we’ve been brought up in 9:41 ...it’s not easy to leave 9:44 Past attempts to build a seawall haven’t worked 9:48 But Barney sees building a new one as the village’s only hope 9:52 If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left 9:56 But if we don’t have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come... 10:01 ...maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded 10:05 Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods 10:11 And many more countries could suffer 10:14 The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries... 10:17 ...that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world 10:21 To escape, many will move… 10:24 …often, to urban areas Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures 10:27 Half the world’s population already lives in cities... 10:31 ...almost a third in slums 10:36 For them, a 3°C world could be deadly 10:40 Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change 10:44 But life could get even worse for her 10:47 I’m struggling a lot nowadays 10:49 The heat during the day is unbearable 10:52 Even late at night it doesn’t cool down 10:57 The heat is getting more intense every day 10:59 I mean, it’s going to get much worse 11:03 I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? 11:08 Dhaka is getting hotter 11:11 In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature... 11:13 ...has crept up by nearly half a degree 11:17 Days that approach 40°C are now being reported 11:20 And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise 11:26 A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity 11:30 Humans cool themselves by sweating… 11:32 But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%... 11:36 ...sweat doesn’t evaporate well 11:38 So people can’t cool down… 11:41 ...even if given unlimited shade and water 11:45 At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body can’t lose heat... 11:49 ...and so it gets hotter and hotter... 11:51 ...and the body is designed to work at a given temperature 11:53 And if it gets too hot inside, you will die 11:58 The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C... 12:02 ...around skin temperature 12:04 Dhaka will have a much higher chance... 12:05 ...of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures... 12:07 ...if global warming reaches 3°C 12:12 You can’t really adapt to that 12:14 You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you can’t work... 12:20 ...can’t do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year... 12:25 ...then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy 12:33 Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates... 12:37 ...have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures 12:40 More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf... 12:43 ...as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States... 12:47 ...could all get to this threshold by the end of the century 12:50 Climate modelling might show us the weather Increased migration and conflict 12:52 But it doesn’t show us its other effects on society 12:56 Established migration patterns could change 12:59 Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders 13:03 Within countries, more people will move to cities 13:07 In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year... 13:10 ...could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change 13:15 When people are displaced by climate... 13:18 …they may well go to cities... 13:19 ...because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already 13:25 A lot of people who can get to the developed world... 13:28 ...not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go 13:35 As migration around the world increases... 13:38 ...there could be more competition for fewer resources 13:42 Water—already a highly contested resource—will be a focal point 13:47 Turkey’s new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq 13:53 China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan 13:57 The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy 14:03 How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions... 14:08 ...in a 3°C world... 14:09 ...is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out 14:14 I think you’d have to be incredibly sanguine... 14:16 ...not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about... 14:19 ...in a 3°C world wouldn’t lead some places... 14:22 ...to the brink of societal collapse 14:25 Those lucky enough to escape unrest... Adaptation and mitigation are crucial 14:28 ...would still have to adapt to a radically different world 14:32 People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones... 14:37 ...is air conditioning 14:39 But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level... 14:42 ...I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture 14:47 There are physical things you can do, like seawalls 14:52 The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering... 14:57 ...doesn’t mean that it will eliminate suffering 15:00 Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet 15:06 Adaptation will only get the world so far 15:09 The best way to deal with a 3°C world... 15:12 ...is not to go to a 3°C world 15:14 And that’s why increasing efforts on mitigation are important 15:17 It’s why working towards negative emissions... 15:20 ...that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important 15:25 Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble 15:33 The scale of change needed... 15:35 ...and the slow progress of governments so far... 15:38 ...means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done 15:44 Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions... 15:48 ...are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 15:54 The need to act has never been clearer 15:57 There’s still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction... 16:02 ...rather than becoming fact

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