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Forecast for Sales
Quiz by David Pérez De Prado
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¿Por qué necesitamos un buen Forecast?
Para poder suministrar a la planta una previsión ajustada
Tener la correcta disponibilidad de producto , cuanto y cuando lo necesito
Por que lo piden los de SOP
Tener producto, conocer el impacto y rentabilidad financiera y controlar WC
¿Cuáles son los keydrivers del beneficio?
Volumen / Precio / Coste / Mix
Volumen
GP / NSV
Precio
¿Por qué necesitamos un buen Forecast?
¿Cuáles son los keydrivers del beneficio?
¿Quién es el responsable de los resultados Financieros de los clientes?
¿Los volúmenes de Forecast se bloquean mensualmente en Anaplan?
Cuándo se someten los volúmenes de SOP a Planta
Cómo generamos el mejor Forecast
Cuál de las siguientes acciones impactan en la construcción del Fcst de nuevos productos
¿Qué es la demand review?
Cuál consideras que es el punto más importante en la construcción de un Fcst
Management and Globalization Global Management Why companies go global How companies for global Global Business environments Global Business Types of global business Pros and cons of global businesses Ethnic Challenges for global business Culture and Global Diversity Cultural intelligence Silent language of culture Tight and loose cultures Values and national cultures Global Management Learning Are management theories universal? Intercultural competencies Global learning goals Key concepts of the challenges of globalisation: Global economy Resources, markets and competition are worldwide in scope Internationalisation The process of increasing involvement in international operations Globalization/Deglobalization Glob- the growing interdependence among elements in the global economy The worldwide interdependence of resource flows, product markets and business competition World 3.0 Different views: World flat vs. round Distance is a metaphor that represents the degree of dissimilarities between countries Balancing cooperation in the global Global Management Global management - managing things in different countries Managing business and organizations with interests in more than one country What do we expect from global Managers Knowing how to adapt Knowing the language Global Manager Is culturally aware and informed on international affairs International Business Conducting for-profit transactions of goods and services across national boundaries International Motive Why do firms internatioalize their activities Cheaper labour Labour tax Natural resources Enrolments to do business Clientele Exclusive materials Personal benefits: Taxes Reasons why businesses go global Customers Suppluers Capital During (1993) - 4 motive 1. Market seeking 2. Efficiency Seeking 3. Resource seeking 4. Strategic Asset Seeking Cuervo Cazurra, Narula and un (2015) - 4 motive s Internationalization Motives A company may also explore the opportunities in different markets in order to take advantage and in some cases extend the product life cycle What is a Market Entry Strategy Involves the sale of goods or services to foreign markets but do not require expensive investments Franchising Exporting and importing Involve the sale of goods or services to foreign markets but do Types of market entry strategies Global sourcing Exporting Importing Licensing agreement Franchising Types of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) strategies: Joint venture Strategic alliance Owned Subsidiary (sometimes called WOS) How to go abroad What conditions will affect the decisions of firms on how to internationalize their activities? During (1978)- Eclectic paradigm OLI model OLI- Ownership, Location and Internalization Advantages Ownership advantages Resources owned by the organization that can be transferred across locations include trademarks, production techniques and processes, managerial skills and other resources not available to the competitors Location Advantages Represent the implications of choosing to produce or to perform activities in a specific location (country or region) Internalization Advantages: The ability to internalize or to incorporate activities that add value to its business Evolution of Concepts- New Elements Although economic factors are certainly important to explain the formation, growth and expansion of firms within and across national borders, they are not sufficient to explain the additional complexity when a firm decides to expand its activities across national borders Economic factors Investigate the economic elements that affect the internationalization of firms Behavioural Elements Explaining the additional challenges (and perhaps opportunities) a firm faces in foreign host countries when compared to indigenous (local) firms Behavioural theories Johanson and Wiedersheim-Paul (1975) and Johanson and Vahlne (1977) Included the psychic Distance concept (beckerman,1956) to explain the internationalization behaviour of firms The Uppsala internationalization model Psychic distance is: the sum of factors preventing the flow of infomatio from and to the market Psychic Distance is a broad concept that includes several elements such as: language, culture, political systems, level of education, level of industrial development Firms behave in a “Risk Averse” manner It means that when the perceived risk goes down, the firm increase its commitment to the foreign market \ The Haier Group Data Strategy Big DATA and Small DATA The use of small data to satisfy individual customers’ needs, however, the book mentions a huge cultural shock at the plant in Camden, south caroline Ex: top down, hard hat colors and hierarchy Culutral Differnces can have a huge impact on the internationalization of firms Kogut and Singh (1988)- Cultural Distance Index First statsical study on the implication of ciltiral distance to the selection of entry mode When investigating in culturally distant countries, foreign firms can choose to partner with foreign firms in order to gain local knowledge and share the risk associated to the investment (higher commitment = higher risk) How Companies Go Global Global sourcing The process of purchasing materials or services around teh world for local use Exporting Selling locally made products in foreign markets Importing Buying foreign made products and selling them domestically Exports correspond to what percentage of Candain GDP What countries are the major trending partners of Canada Management and Globalization How Companies Go Global Licensing Agreement One firm pays a fee for rights to make or sell another company’s products What are the potential risks associated to licesning The case of new balance in China Franchising A fee is paid for the rights to use another firms name, branding and methods Insourcing Insourcing: refers to local job creation that results from foreign direct investment Types of insourcing Joint ventures: operate in a foreign country through co-ownership by foreign and local partners Strategic alliances: A partnership in which foreign and domestic firms share resources and knowledge for mutual gains Foreign subsidiaries: local operation completely owned by a foreign firm Criteria for choosing a joint venture partner: Familiarity with your firm’s major business String local workforce Values its customers Future expansion possibilities Strong local market for partner’s own products Good Profit potential Sound financial standing Global business environments Legal and poliical systems Trade agreements and trade barriers Regional economic alliances Legal and political systems Differing laws and practices regards Business ownership Negotiation and implementation of contracts Foreign currency exchange Protection of intellectual property rights Counterfeit merchandise Political risk Potential loss in value of foreign investment due to instability and political changes in the host country Political risk analysis (expertise/experience) Forecast political disruptions that threaten the value of a foreign investment Changes in the rules of the game Brexit US Trade Wars-mexico-China Other examples Bolivia, Venezuela, China De-globalization The process of weakening interdependence among nations Trade Agreements and trade Barriers World trade organization Most favourd nation status Tariffs Nontariss barriers (quotes, restrictions, etc.) Protectionism Regional Economic Alliances USMCA (replacment for the NAFTA-North American Free trade Agreement) EU- European Union APEC- Aisa Pacific Economic Copperation ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nationas SADC - Southern Africa Development Community MERCOSUR- Chapter 5- Global Management and Cultural Diversity (part 2) Review Types of global business Global corporation MNE (multinational enterprise) or MNC (multinational corporation) with extensive business operations in more than one foreign country Transnational corporation A global corporation that operates worldwide on borderless basis Some host country complaints about MNCs Host Country companits about MNCs: Excessive profits Interference with local government Domination of local economy Interference with local government Hiring the best local talent Limited technology transfer Disrespect for local customers Examples - War in Ukraine Disruption in global -value chains and increased pressure and interference of MNCs with local government Fertilizer imports in Brazil (one of the major producers of agricultural commodities) We must consider the triple bottom line and the impact in society, the environment and the economy $2.5 billion invest in potash mine in Brazill What about Globalization gap Large multinationals adn industrilizednaitons gaining disporoportinonally form globalization Globalization gap: Large multinational and industrialized nations gaining disproportionally from Globalization Some MNC complaints about host countries MNC Complaints about host countries: Profiit limitations Laws and regulations Overpirce resources Exploitative rules Foreign exchange restriction Failure to uphold contracts Mutual benefits for host countries and multinational companies Mutual benefits for host country and global corporation of MNC: Shared growth opportunities Shared income opportunities Shared learning opportunities Share development opportunities Develop projects together What are some of the ethical challenges for global business Ethincal challenges for global business Child labour Employmnet of children for worl otherwise done by adults Sweatshops Employment of workers at very low wages for long hours in poor working conditions Ex: Nike bad labour prices Unsafe working conditions Corruption Illegal practices that further one’s business interests Corrupiotn of froeign public officials Act makes it illegal for Candain firms and their representatives to engage in corrupt practices overseas Bribes to foreign officials Excessive commissions Non-monetary gifts Sweatshops Conflict materials What is culture Culture : The shared set of beliefs, values, and patterns of behvaiourr common to a group of people Food preferences Values and traditions Language and beliefs Religion Art music Life style Hofstede defines culture as: “The collectiv programing of teh mind distinguishing the members of one group or category of people from others” What is culture shock Culture Shock: Confusion and discoumfert a person experiences in an unfaamiliar culture Stages to adjusting to a new culture Confusion Small vitorires The honeymoon Irritation and anger Reality Cultural Intelligence The ability to adapt and adjust to new cultures What is Ethnocentrism Tendency to consider one’s own culture as superior others Slinet languages of culture Contect Low context High context Space Proxemics Ex: personal space Time Monochronic Polychronic High and low contexts cultures Edward T.Hall (1959) Def: Part of a discourse that surround a word or passage and can throw on its meaning Low context cultures Emphizes communication via spoken or written words Countries like United States, Canada and Germany High context cultures Rely on nonverbal and situational cues as well as on spoken or written works Thailand Malaysia Time Monochronic cultures People tend to do one thing at a time Canda Polychronic cultures Time is used to accomplish many different things at once Egypt Space Proxemics Study of how people use space to communicate In North American people value “personal space’ Many Latin and Asian cultures expect much less personal space Tight and Loose Cultures Cultural tightness-looseness Tight = Strength of norms that govern social behvaviour Japan, Korea, Malaysia Loose = tolerance for any deviation from norms Australia, Brazil, Hungary Values and national cultures (Hofstede) Power distance Uncertainty avoidance Individalism-collectivism Masculinity-femininty Time Orientation Indulgence vs. Restraint Comparative management How management pratices systematically differ among countries and /or cultures Intercultural competencies Skills and personal characteristics that help us be successful in cross cultural situations Global Managers (know how to adapt) Need to successfully apply management functions across interantional boundaries Global Learning goals Not universal Engage critical thinking Look everywhere for new management ideas Always consider culture What is the page mainly about? (Answer: C — Homes meet a basic need) A) House colors B) Old buildings C) Homes meet a basic need ✓ D) Travel What basic need do homes give? (Answer: B — Shelter) A) Food B) Shelter ✓ C) Clothes D) Money What does “basic need” mean here? (Answer: C — Something people must have to live) A) Something nice to have B) A school rule C) Something people must have to live ✓ D) A weekend plan Homes keep people ______ and ______. What are the two words from the page? (Answer: B — dry / safe) A) rich / tall B) dry / safe ✓ C) loud / fast D) clean / funny What else are homes for, according to the text? (Answer: B — Eating, sleeping, and being with family and friends) A) Shopping B) Eating, sleeping, and being with family and friends ✓ C) Driving D) Fighting What does the heading “Meeting our needs” tell you? (Answer: B — explains how homes fit the local climate) A) A joke is coming B) This part explains how homes fit the local climate ✓ C) It is a story D) It lists prices What does “climate” mean on this page? (Answer: C — the usual weather of a place) A) Yesterday’s forecast B) A big storm C) The usual weather of a place ✓ D) Room temperature Which roof is best for cold, snowy places? (Answer: D — Slanted) A) Flat B) Dome C) Glass D) Slanted ✓ Why is a slanted roof helpful in snowy places? (Answer: B — snow slides off more easily) A) It is cheaper B) Snow slides off more easily ✓ C) Birds like it D) It is quieter Why do many houses in hot places have many windows? (Answer: B — to let air move through and keep people cool) A) To block all light B) To let air move through and keep people cool ✓ C) To make walls heavy D) To reduce street noise Which detail best supports “climate changes home design”? (Answer: C — Hot → many windows; Snowy → slanted roofs) A) People like blue walls B) Kitchens are big C) Hot → many windows; Snowy → slanted roofs ✓ D) Cities are crowded What does the caption about a traditional Japanese house show? (Answer: C — People sit on mats on the floor to eat) A) People eat outdoors B) Families don’t eat together C) People sit on mats on the floor to eat ✓ D) People stand to eat Which sentence is LEAST connected to the main idea of the page? (Answer: D — Blue walls are relaxing) A) Homes protect people from weather B) Roofs can change with climate C) Windows help rooms stay cool D) Blue walls are relaxing ✓ Which text structure organizes the right paragraph? (Answer: C — Cause–effect) A) Timeline B) Problem–solution C) Cause–effect ✓ D) Description only What is the author’s purpose? (Answer: B — to explain how homes meet a human need) A) To sell houses B) To explain how homes meet a human need ✓ C) To tell a funny story D) To give building laws What can you guess about a flat roof in a snowy place? (Answer: B — snow can pile up and be unsafe) A) Best choice B) Snow can pile up and be unsafe ✓ C) Always cheaper D) Warmer in summer Which page feature helps you find ideas quickly? (Answer: C — Headings and photo captions) A) Rhyme B) Dialogue C) Headings and photo captions ✓ D) Footnotes Which sentence is the best summary of the page? (Answer: C — Homes give shelter; designs change with climate) A) Houses are beautiful in winter B) People prefer bright colors C) Homes give shelter; designs change with climate (slanted roofs, many windows) ✓ D) Windows are the most important part True/False or Short Answer (5) True/False: All homes have the same purpose, even if they look different. (Answer: True) True/False: In hot places, houses usually have fewer windows to keep heat in. (Answer: False — hot places → many windows for airflow/cooling) Short Answer (1–3 words): Homes provide shelter to keep people _____ and _____. (Answer: dry; safe) Short Answer (one example): Write one climate → design pair from the page. (Answer: cold/snowy → slanted roof OR hot → many windows) True/False: The photo shows people in Japan eating on mats on the floor. (Answer: True)1. [Force] Part A: A student wants to test how friction affects a toy car. She rolls the car across a sheet of sandpaper and then across a sheet of wax paper. Which is the independent (changing) variable? A. The speed of the car B. The type of surface C. The distance traveled D. The size of the car Part B: On which surface will the car likely stop the SOONEST? A. The wax paper B. The sandpaper C. Both will be the same D. Neither surface has friction 2. [Magnets] Which of these is a measurable question for a magnet experiment? A. Are magnets more fun than springs? B. What is the prettiest color for a magnet? C. How many steel paperclips can a bar magnet lift? D. Why were magnets invented? 3. [Earth's Changes] A student observes a statue in a park that has lost its nose and has smooth edges after many years of rain and wind. What process caused this? A. Erosion B. Deposition C. Weathering D. Evaporation 4. [Earth's Changes] When a river reaches the ocean, it slows down and creates a landform called a delta by dropping sand and silt. This "dropping off" is called: A. Weathering B. Deposition C. Condensation D. Friction 5. [Resources] Why is coal considered a nonrenewable resource? A. It can be burned to make electricity. B. It is found deep underground. C. It takes millions of years to form and cannot be replaced quickly. D. It is made from ancient plants. 6. [Conservation] A school replaces all its old lightbulbs with energy-efficient LED bulbs. This is an example of: A. Weathering a resource B. Conserving a resource C. Deposition of energy D. Creating a renewable resource 7. [Aquifers] An aquifer is like a giant underground sponge. What characteristic of the rocks allows them to hold water? A. The rocks are solid and water-proof. B. The rocks are porous, with tiny spaces for water to sit. C. The rocks are magnetic and pull water toward them. D. The rocks are melted into a liquid state. 8. [Water Cycle] On a humid morning, you see dew on the grass even though it didn't rain overnight. Which part of the water cycle formed the dew? A. Evaporation B. Precipitation C. Condensation D. Transpiration 9. [Climate] Which of the following is a description of CLIMATE? A. "It is currently 85 degrees in McAllen." B. "There is a 40% chance of rain this afternoon." C. "South Texas typically has mild winters and very hot summers." D. "The wind is blowing from the North at 10 mph today." 10. [Weather/Climate] A scientist is looking at a chart that shows the total annual rainfall in a city from 1990 to 2020. What is the scientist most likely studying? A. The daily weather forecast B. The climate of the region C. The water cycle of a single pond D. The rate of erosion on a local hillChapter One: Management Today The challenges of working in the new economy recognize: 1.1 Working Today Talent Talented people- What they know, what they learn and what they can achive The source of organisational performance Develop skills and improve What is intellectual capital The combined brain power and shared knowledge of an organization's employees TO orginzations: Intellectual capital resents a strategic asset as human creativity, insight and decision making can be converted into superior performance To individuals: Intellectual capital is a personal asset, one to be nurtured and continually updated Things evolve, make sure we keep updated Intellectual capital: The package on intellect skills and capabilities that set us apart making us valable to potential employers Maintaining your talent: There is no escaping the fact that your career success will require a lot of initiative, self awareness and continuous learning Technology Tech is in our everyday lives Latest developments Smart phone, smart apparel, smart cars, smart homes We struggle to keep up with social media ana staying connected with messaging, full of email and voicemail What happenings as younger workers advance into management Flexibility Work ethic It is critical to build and maintain a high Tech IQ! What is Tech IQ: The ability to use current technologies at work and in your personal life, combined with the commitment to keep yourself updated as technology continues to evolve Intellectual capi5la is a combination of: Commitment x Competency = Intellectual capital How to make the world a better place Globalisation The worldwide interdependence of resources flows, product markets and business competition Under the influence, government leaders worry and about the competitiveness of nations just as corporate leaders worry about business competitiveness Emerging markets will power global growth over the next 20 years. By 2025 overall global consumption is forecast to reach $62 trillion, twice its 2013 level and fully half of this increase will come from the emerging world Consequence: Going to fast in uses resources, inflation, corporate greed It's cheaper to have things made in different countries (wages are low and going down) Shamrock organization 1 leaf - full time employees- standard career paths 2 leaf - “freelancers” 3 leaf - Part times without benefits (first to lose their jobs when employers face economic difficulties) The rising of emerging markets Now account for 60% of all low and medium technology manufacturing worldwide Total value add in high tech manufacturing from a low 26% in the 1970s to 48% at present China strategy to upgrade its industries and move the manufacturing value ching by prioritising 10 sectors Information technology, robotic, aerospace, maritime equipment, modern railway equipment, alternative energy vehicles, power equipment, agriculture equipment, advanced materials, biopharma and medical products Ethics A code of moral principa;s that sets standards for conduct that is “good” and “right” as well as “bad” and “wrong” Enron company huge corruption even in elections same thing happened with The Mechanism 1.2 - Organizations Organizational Purpose An orgnizations is a collection of people working together to achieve a common purpose Unique social phenomenon that enables its members to perform tasks far beyond the reach of individual accomplishment (synergy) The broad purpose of any orginzation is to provide goods or services of value to customers and clients A clear sense of purpose tied to: Quality of products and services Customer satisfaction Social responsibility Can be an important source of organisational strength and performance advantage All organisations are open systems (Systems that interact with its environment for renewal and growth) Organizations as systems All organizations are open systems that interact with their environment Continual process of obtaining resource inputs-people, information, resources and capital- and transforming them into outputs in the form of finished goods and services for customers One simple way to assess the impact of any organisation is to ask the question: How is the world different because it existed Value Creation: Organisations create value when they use resources well to produce good products and take care of their customers One simple way to assess the impact of any organization is to ask the questions: How is the world different because it existed? The 3 Ps of organizational performance Profit - is the decision economically sound? People - Does the decision treat people with respect and dignity? Planet - Is the decision good for the environment? Productivity: An overall measure of the quantity and quality of work performance with recourse utilisation taken into account Performance effectiveness: An output measure of task or goal accomplishment Performance efficiency: An input measure of the resource costs associated with goal accomplishment. Workplace changes that impact management Focus on valuing human capital Demise of “Command and control” Emphasis on teamwork Pre-eminence of technology New workforce expectations Importance of networking Concern for sustainability 1.3 Managers Importance of human resources and manger People are not ‘costs to be controlled’ High performing organizations treat people as valuable strategic assets Three takeaways 1. Give leaders broad authority 2. Encourage them to think like CEO 3. Challenge strong performers ealy with big opportunities Direct support, supervise and help activate the work efforts of others The people who managers help are the ones whose contributions represent the real work of the organisation Types of managers Line managers are responsible for work activities that directly affect organization’s output Staff managers use technical expertise to advise and support the efforts of line workers Functional managers are responsible for a single area of activity Quality of work life (QWL) An indicator of the overall quality of human experiences in the workplace QWL Indicators Respect Fair pay Safe working conditions Opportunities to learn and use new skills Room to grow and progress in a career Protection of individuals rights The organization as an upside-down pyramid A manager’s job is to support worker’s efforts The best managers are known for helping and supporting Customers at the top served by worker who are supported by managers 1.4 The management Process Managers achieve high performance for their organizations by best utilizing its humans and material resources Management is the process of planning, organizing, leading and controlling the use of resources to accomplish performance goals All managers are responsible for the four functions The functions are carried on continually Characteristics of managerial work Long hours Intense pace Fragmented and varied tasks Many communication media Filled with interpersonal relationships Managerial agendas and networks Agenda setting Develops action priorities for accomplishing goals and plans Networking Process of building and maintaining positive relationships with people who can help advance agendas Social Capital Capacity to attract support and help from others Learning The change in a behaviour that results from experience Lifelong learning The process of continuously learning from daily experiences and opportunities The challenges of working in the new economy recognize: 1.1 Working Today Talent Talented people- What they know, what they learn and what they can achive The source of organisational performance Develop skills and improve What is intellectual capital The combined brain power and shared knowledge of an organization's employees TO orginzations: Intellectual capital resents a strategic asset as human creativity, insight and decision making can be converted into superior performance To individuals: Intellectual capital is a personal asset, one to be nurtured and continually updated Things evolve, make sure we keep updated Intellectual capital: The package on intellect skills and capabilities that set us apart making us valable to potential employers Maintaining your talent: There is no escaping the fact that your career success will require a lot of initiative, self awareness and continuous learning Technology Tech is in our everyday lives Latest developments Smart phone, smart apparel, smart cars, smart homes We struggle to keep up with social media ana staying connected with messaging, full of email and voicemail What happenings as younger workers advance into management Flexibility Work ethic It is critical to build and maintain a high Tech IQ! What is Tech IQ: The ability to use current technologies at work and in your personal life, combined with the commitment to keep yourself updated as technology continues to evolve Intellectual capi5la is a combination of: Commitment x Competency = Intellectual capital How to make the world a better place Globalisation The worldwide interdependence of resources flows, product markets and business competition Under the influence, government leaders worry and about the competitiveness of nations just as corporate leaders worry about business competitiveness Emerging markets will power global growth over the next 20 years. By 2025 overall global consumption is forecast to reach $62 trillion, twice its 2013 level and fully half of this increase will come from the emerging world Consequence: Going to fast in uses resources, inflation, corporate greed It's cheaper to have things made in different countries (wages are low and going down) Shamrock organization 1 leaf - full time employees- standard career paths 2 leaf - “freelancers” 3 leaf - Part times without benefits (first to lose their jobs when employers face economic difficulties) The rising of emerging markets Now account for 60% of all low and medium technology manufacturing worldwide Total value add in high tech manufacturing from a low 26% in the 1970s to 48% at present China strategy to upgrade its industries and move the manufacturing value ching by prioritising 10 sectors Information technology, robotic, aerospace, maritime equipment, modern railway equipment, alternative energy vehicles, power equipment, agriculture equipment, advanced materials, biopharma and medical products Ethics A code of moral principa;s that sets standards for conduct that is “good” and “right” as well as “bad” and “wrong” Enron company huge corruption even in elections same thing happened with The Mechanism 1.2 - Organizations Organizational Purpose An orgnizations is a collection of people working together to achieve a common purpose Unique social phenomenon that enables its members to perform tasks far beyond the reach of individual accomplishment (synergy) The broad purpose of any orginzation is to provide goods or services of value to customers and clients A clear sense of purpose tied to: Quality of products and services Customer satisfaction Social responsibility Can be an important source of organisational strength and performance advantage All organisations are open systems (Systems that interact with its environment for renewal and growth) Organizations as systems All organizations are open systems that interact with their environment Continual process of obtaining resource inputs-people, information, resources and capital- and transforming them into outputs in the form of finished goods and services for customers One simple way to assess the impact of any organisation is to ask the question: How is the world different because it existed Michal Porter - Value Chain Value Creation: Organisations create value when they use resources well to produce good products and take care of their customers One simple way to assess the impact of any organization is to ask the questions: How is the world different because it existed? Triple Bottom Line The 3 Ps of organizational performance Profit - is the decision economically sound? People - Does the decision treat people with respect and dignity? Planet - Is the decision good for the environment? Organizational Performance Productivity: An overall measure of the quantity and quality of work performance with recourse utilisation taken into account Performance effectiveness: An output measure of task or goal accomplishment Performance efficiency: An input measure of the resource costs associated with goal accomplishment. Workplace changes that impact management Focus on valuing human capital Demise of “Command and control” Emphasis on teamwork Pre-eminence of technology New workforce expectations Importance of networking Concern for sustainability 1.3 Managers Importance of human resources and manger People are not ‘costs to be controlled’ High performing organizations treat people as valuable strategic assets Three takeaways 1. Give leaders broad authority 2. Encourage them to think like CEO 3. Challenge strong performers easily with big opportunities Direct support, supervise and help activate the work efforts of others The people who managers help are the ones whose contributions represent the real work of the organisation Levels of management Types of managers Line managers are responsible for work activities that directly affect organization’s output Staff managers use technical expertise to advise and support the efforts of line workers Functional managers are responsible for a single area of activity Quality of work life (QWL) An indicator of the overall quality of human experiences in the workplace QWL Indicators Respect Fair pay Safe working conditions Opportunities to learn and use new skills Room to grow and progress in a career Protection of individuals rights The organization as an upside-down pyramid A manager’s job is to support worker’s efforts The best managers are known for helping and supporting Customers at the top served by worker who are supported by managers 1.4 The management Process Managers achieve high performance for their organizations by best utilizing its humans and material resources Management is the process of planning, organizing, leading and controlling the use of resources to accomplish performance goals All managers are responsible for the four functions The functions are carried on continually Four functions: Planning,organizing, leading and controlling Mintzberg’s 10 Managerial Roles Characteristics of managerial work Long hours Intense pace Fragmented and varied tasks Many communication media Filled with interpersonal relationships Managerial agendas and networks Agenda setting Develops action priorities for accomplishing goals and plans Networking Process of building and maintaining positive relationships with people who can help advance agendas Social Capital Capacity to attract support and help from others Learning The change in a behaviour that results from experience Lifelong learning The process of continuously learning from daily experiences and opportunities Katz’ Essential Managerial Skills Why and How Managers Plan Importance of planning The planing process Benefits of planning Planning and time management Types of PLans used by managers Long term and short term plans Strageic and tactical plans Operational plans Planning Tools and Techiqunes Forecasting Contrigency planning Scenario planning Benchmaking Use of staff planners Implementing Plans to Achive Results Goal setting Goal management Goal alignment Participation and involvement Planning Def: The process of setting objectives and determining how best to accomplish them Planning at Eaton Corporation “Making the hard decision before events force them upon you, an anticipating the future needs of the market before the demand asset itself Objectives and goals Identifity the specific results or desired outcomes that one intends to achieve Plan Def: A statement of action steps to be taken in order to accomplish the objectives (goals) Steps in the planning process: Define your objectives Determine where you stand vis-a-vis objectives Develpo premises reagrdsing future conditions Analyze alternatives and make a plan Implement the plan and evaluate results What are the benefits of planning Improves focus and flexibility Imporves action orteitation Imporves coordination and control Imporves time management Time Managment Personal time management tips Do say “no” to request that distract you form what you should be doing Dont get bogged down inn details that can be addressed later Do screen telephone calls, emails and meeting request Dont let drop in visitors, text messaging use up your time Do prioritize your important and urgent work Dont become calendar bound by letting other control your schedule Do follow priorities; do most important and urgent work first Some 77% of mangers in one survey said that digital age has increased th number of decisions they have to make 43% said there was less time available to make these decisions Types of plans used by Managers What is teh time horizon Long term vs Short term Long term Look three or more years into teh future Short term plans Typically cover one year or less However: the increasing environmental complexity and dynamism of recent years has severely tested the concept of “long-term” planning Plans are subject to frequent revisions Most executives would likely agree that these complexities adn uncertainties challenge how er actually go about planning and how far ahead we can really plan At the very least we can conclude that there is a lot less permanency to long term plans today and that tey are subject to frequent revision Managment reaeracher Eillot Jaques believes tha people vary in their capability to think with different time horizons Types of Plans used by Managers (3 of 5) Strategic plans Set broad, comprehensive and linger term action directions for teh entire organization or major division Vision Clarifies purpose of the organization and what it hopes to be on the future Typical plans Specify how the organizations resources are used to implement strategy Tactical plans in business often take the form of functional plans Functional plans Incidate how different component within the organiztion will help accompnlish the overall strategy Production plans Finacial plans Facilites Plans Logisitc plans Marketing plans Human Resource Plans Operation plans Describe short-term activities to implement strategic plans Policies: Are standing plans that communicate guidelines for decisions Ex: Policies on office romances: The media is quick to report when a top executive or public figures runs into trouble over an office affair. Are there ant policies on office romances? Employer polices on office raltioshiis vary. One survey find teh following: 24% prohibit relationships among employees in the same department 13% prohibit relationships among employees who have the smae supervisor 80% prohibit relationships between supervisors and subordinates 5% have no restrictions on office romances Procedures: Are rules that describe actions to be taken in specific situations Budgets: are single use plans that commit resources to projects or activities Zero based budgets: allocate resources as if each budget were brand new There is no guarantee that any past funding will be renwer. All propsales, old and new, must compete for available funds at teh start of each new budget cycle Forcasting Attempts to predict the future Qualitaive forecasting uses expert opinions Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statiscal aanylsis of historical data dna surveys Contingency planning Identify alternative course of action to take when things go wrong Anticipate changing conditions Contain trigger points to indicate when to activate plan (or a specific course of action) Scenario planning A long term version of contingency planning Identifying alternative future scenarios Plans made for each future scenario Increases organizations flexibility and preparation for future shocks Benchmarking Use of external and internal comparisons to better evaluate current performance Adopting best practices: things people adn organization do that lead to superior performance Staff Planners Experts who assist in all steps of the planning process They help bring focus and expertise to a wide variety of planning tasks Important: Communication between staff planers landline managers is essential for teh success of teh planning process Goal Setting - Always set SMART goal The solution: Goal Aligment Between Team Leader and Team Member Jonintly plan: Set objectives, set standards, choose actions Individually acy: Perform tasks (member), provide support (leader) Jointly control: Review results, discuss implications, renew cycle x4 Collective effort and commitment Participatroy planning Includes in all planning steps that people who will be affected by the plans adn askedd to help implement them Unloacks motivational potential of goal setting Management by objective (MBO) promotes participation Participation increases understanding and acceptance of plan and commitment to success Participatory planning - Number of people involved in teh decision making process Amazon is intensely focused on what it does. It believes in creating tight single-threaded teams, also known as “2 pizza team.” Data and Decision Making What are some of the important competencies managers must have today? Delegate Marketing and technology Manager must have Technological competency Ability to understand new technologies and to use them to their best advantage Information competency Ability to locate, gather, organize and display information for decision-making and problem solving Analytical competency Ability to evaluate and analyze information to make actual decisions and solve real problems What is the difference between Data and Information Data Raw facts and observation Information Data made useful and meaningful for decision-making Important concepts Big data Exists in huge quantities and is difficult to process without sophisticated mathematical and analytical techniques Data production today Bernard Marr is an internationally best-selling author. He helps organizations improve their business performance, use data more intelligently Data mining The process of analyzing data to produce useful information for decision-makers Management Analytics The systematic evaluation and analysis of data to make informed decision Information drives management Bad Data Refers to information that can be erroneous, misleading, and without general formatting The challenge: Can er use the data that is available in the “Big Data” Needs to be valid Can not trust everything out there Being ethical Look at the trends Data is structured and unstructured Data BIg Data = Structured + Unstructured Information Drive Management decision making What are the characteristics of useful information Easy to access If its credible Accurate Characteristics of useful information: Timely High quality Complete Relevant Understandable What about bad data It's not credible Miss information If it is not structured/ organized Bias based on opinions Confusing If its updated Bad data Refers to information that can be erroneous miss What are some examples of Management information system Business intelligence -BI Information systems to extract and report data in organized ways that are useful to decision-makers Executive dashboards Visually update and display key performance metrics (or Key Performance Indicators -KPIs) and information on a real-time basis Information needs in organization External Environment Information exchanges with the external environment Gather intelligence information Provide public information Information needs within the organizations (internal Enviroement) Information exchange within the organization Facilitate decision making Facilitate problem-solving Managers as information processors Continually gather, share and receive information Now as much electronic as it is face-to-face Always on, always connected How many people telecommute at least once a week 70% of people globally work remotely at least once a week, Work at home after covid 19 our forecast Our best estimate it that 25-30% of the workforce will be working form home multiple days a week by the end of 2021 As of 2023, 12.7% of full time employees work from home, while 28.2% work a hybrid model Managers as problem solvers Problem-solving The process of identifying a discrepancy between actual and desired performance and taking action to resolve it Ishikawa Fishbone diagram To identify the cause of problems Decision A choice among possible alternative courses of action Performance threat Something is wrong or has the potential to go wrong Performance opportunity The situation offers the chance for a better future if the right steps are taken Problem-solving approaches or style - from textbook Problem avoiders Inactive in information gathering and solving problems Problem seekers Proactive in anticipation of problems and opportunities and taking appropriate action to gain an advantage Problem solvers Reactive in gathering information and solving problem Managers - can approach problems in a systematic or intuitive manner Systematic thinking approaches problem in rational, step-by-step and analytical fashion Intuitive thinking approaches problems in a flexible and spontaneous fashion Multidimensional thinking- applies both intuitive and systematic thinking Managers face structured and unstructured problems Structure problems Are ones that are familiar, straight forward, and clear with respect to information needs Program decisions apply solutions that are readily available from past experiences to solve structured problems Know how to solve them Familiar Know what we are dealing with Unstructured problems Are ones that are full of ambiguities and information deficiencies Nonprogrammed decisions apply a specific solution to meet the demands of a unique problem Commonly faced by higher-level management Crisis decision making A crisis involves an unexpected problem that can lead to disaster if not resolved quickly and appropriately Ruled for crisis management Figure out what is going on Remember that speed matters Remember that slow counts, too Respect the danger of the unfamiliar Value the skeptic Be ready to “fight fire with fire” Managers make decisions with various amounts of information Certain environment Offers complete information on possible action alternatives and their consequences Risk environment Lacks complete information but offers probabilities of the likely outcomes for possible action alternatives Uncertain environment Lacks so much information that it is difficult to assign probabilities to the likely outcomes of alternative Ex: Certain and uncertain environments: The worldwide Governance Indicators for over 200 countries, comparing distinct environments (Canada-Brazil) Step 1-Identify and define the problem Focuses on information gathering information processing and deliberation Decision objectives should be established What are some common mistakes in definding problems? Common mistakes in defining problems Defining the problem too broadly or too narrowly Focusing on symptoms instead of causes Choosing the wrong problem to deal with Step 2- Generate and Evaluate Alternative Courses of Action Potential solutions are formulated and more information is gathered, data are analyzed, the advantages and disadvantages of alternative solutions are identified Common mistakes: Abandoning the search for alternatives too quickly Step 3- Decide on a preferred course of Action Two different approaches Behavioural model leads to satisficing decisions Classical model les to optimising decisions Behavioural Model Rationality is bounded because: There are limits our thinks capacity Available information (incomplete) Time constraints Step 4-Implement the decision Involves taking action to make sure the solution decided upon becomes a reality Managers need to have the willingness and ability to implement action plans Problems: Lack of participation error should be avoided Step 5 - Evaluate Results Involves comparing actual and desired results The positive and negative consequences of the chosen course of action should be examined If actual results fall short desire results, the manager returns to earlier steps in the decision-making process At all steps, check ethical reasoning Ask these spotlight questions Utility Does teh decision satisfy all constituents or stakeholders Rights Does the description respect the rights and duties of everyone? Justice Is the decision consistent with the canons of justice Caring Is the decision consistent with my responsibilities to care? Issues in decision-making How do errors happen? Heuristics: are strategies for simplifying decision-making Availability Bias: Bases a decision on recent information or events Representativeness bias: Bases a decision on similarity to other situations Anchoring and Adjustment Bias: Bases a decision on incremental adjustment from a prior decision point Framing error: Tring to solve a problem in the context perceived, positive or negative Confirmation Error: Focusing on information that confirms a decision already made Escalating commitment: Continuing a course of action even though it is not working Creative Decision making Creativity is the generation of a novel idea or unique approach that solves a problem or crafts an opportunity Big C: Creativity occurs when extraordinary things are done by exceptional people Little C: Creativity occurs when average people come up with unique ways to deal with daily events and situations The three types of situational creativity drivers Chapter review What are objectives and goals? The specific results or desired outcomes What are the 5 characteristics of great (SMART) goals? Forecasting - Attempts Qualitative forecasting uses options Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statistical analysis of historical data and surveys Scenarios-Oracle’s crystal ball combines qualitative and quantitative methodsTools for forcast Owls, such as the young snowy owls on the previous page, have for centuries been symbols of both wisdom and mystery. To many cultures their piercing eyes have conveyed a look of intelligence. Their silent flight through darkened landscapes in search of prey has projected an air of power or wonder. For this chapter and this book, owls are an engaging example of a living organism from the world of biology—the study of life. BIOLOGY AND YOU Living in a small town, in the country, or at the edge of the suburbs, one may be lucky enough to hear an owl's hooting. This experience can lead to questions about where the bird lives, what it hunts, and how it finds its prey on dark, moonless nights. Biology, or the study of life, offers an organized and scientific framework for posing and answering such questions about the natural world. Biologists study questions about how living things work, how they interact with the environment, and how they change over time. Biologists study many different kinds of living things ranging from tiny organisms, such as bacteria, to very large organisms, such as elephants. Each day, biologists investigate subjects that affect you and the way you live. For example, biologists determine which foods are healthy. As shown in Figure 1-1, everyone is affected by this impor- tant topic. Biologists also study how much a person should exer- cise and how one can avoid getting sick. Biologists also study what CHARACTERISTICS OF LIFE The world is filled with familiar objects, such as tables, rocks, plants, pets, and automobiles. Which of these objects are living or were once living? What are the criteria for assigning something to the living world or the nonliving world? Biologists have established that living things share seven characteristics of life. These characteristics are organization and the presence of one or more cells, response to a stimulus (plural, stimuli), homeostasis, metabolism, growth and development, reproduction, and change through time. Organization and Cells Organization is the high degree of order within an organism’s internal and external parts and in its interactions with the living world. For example, compare an owl to a rock. The rock has a spe- cific shape, but that shape is usually irregular. Furthermore, differ- ent rocks, even rocks of the same type, are likely to have different shapes and sizes. In contrast, the owl is an amazingly organized individual, as shown in Figure 1-2. Owls of the same species have the same body parts arranged in nearly the same way and interact with the environment in the same way. Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. ORGANISM (Barn Owl) ORGAN (Owl’s Ear) TISSUE (Nervous Tissue Within the Ear) CELL (Nerve Cell) your air, land, and fAll living organisms, whether made up of one cell or many cells, have some degree of organization. A cell is the smallest unit that can perform all life’s processes. Some organisms, such as bacteria, are made up of one cell and are called unicellular (YOON-uh-SEL-yoo-luhr) organisms. Other organisms, such as humans or trees, are made up of multiple cells and are called multicellular (MUHL-ti-SEL-yoo-luhr) organisms. Complex multicellular organisms have the level of orga- nization shown in Figure 1-2. In the highest level, the organism is made up of organ systems, or groups of specialized parts that carry out a certain function in the organism. For example, an owl’s ner- vous system is made up of a brain, sense organs, nerve cells, and other parts that sense and respond to the owl’s surroundings. Organ systems are made up of organs. Organs are structures that carry out specialized jobs within an organ system. An owl’s ear is an organ that allows the owl to hear. All organs are made up of tissues. Tissues are groups of cells that have similar abilities and that allow the organ to function. For example, nervous tissue in the ear allows the ear to detect sound. Tissues are made up of cells. A cell must be covered by a membrane, contain all genetic information necessary for replication, and be able to carry out all cell functions. Within each cell are organelles. Organelles are tiny structures that carry out functions necessary for the cell to stay alive. Organelles contain biological molecules, the chemical compounds that provide physical structure and that bring about movement, energy use, and other cellular functions. All biological molecules are made up of atoms. Atoms are the simplest particle of an ele- ment that retains all the properties of a certain element. Response to Stimuli Another characteristic of life is that an organism can respond to a stimulus—a physical or chemical change in the internal or external environment. For example, an owl dilates its pupils to keep the level of light entering the eye constant. Organisms must be able to respond and react to changes in their environment to stay alive. ORGANELLE (Mitochondrion) BIOLOGICAL MOLECULE (Phospholipid) ATOM (Oxygen) cell from the Latin, cella meaning “small room,” or “hut” Word Roots and Origins www.scilinks.org Topic: Characteristics of Life Keyword: HM60257 mb06se_bios01.qxd 5/18/07 10:37 AM Page 7 8 CHAPTER 1 Homeostasis All living things, from single cells to entire organisms, have mecha- nisms that allow them to maintain stable internal conditions. Without these mechanisms, organisms can die. For example, a cell’s water content is closely controlled by the taking in or releas- ing of water. A cell that takes in too much water will rupture and die. A cell that doesn’t get enough water will also shrivel and die. Homeostasis (HOH-mee-OH-STAY-sis) is the maintenance of a stable level of internal conditions even though environmental conditions are constantly changing. Organisms have regulatory systems that maintain internal conditions, such as temperature, water content, and uptake of nutrients by the cell. In fact, multi- cellular organisms usually have more than one way of maintain- ing important aspects of their internal environment. For example, an owl’s temperature is maintained at about 40°C (104°F). To keep a constant temperature, an owl’s cells burn fuel to produce body heat. In addition, an owl’s feathers can fluff up in cold weather. In this way, they trap an insulating layer of air next to the bird’s body to maintain its body temperature. Metabolism Living organisms use energy to power all the life processes, such as repair, movement, and growth. This energy use depends on metabolism (muh-TAB-uh-LIZ-uhm). Metabolism is the sum of all the chemical reactions that take in and transform energy and materials from the environment. For example, plants, algae, and some bacteria use the sun’s energy to generate sugar molecules during a process called photosynthesis. Some organisms depend on obtaining food energy from other organisms. For instance, an owl’s metabolism allows the owl to extract and modify the chemi- cals trapped in its nightly prey and use them as energy to fuel activities and growth. Growth and Development All living things grow and increase in size. Some nonliving things, such as crystals or icicles, grow by accumulating more of the same material of which they are made. In contrast, the growth of living things results from the division and enlargement of cells. Cell division is the formation of two new cells from an existing cell, as shown in Figure 1-3. In unicellular organisms, the primary change that occurs following cell division is cell enlargement. In multi- cellular life, however, organisms mature through cell division, cell enlargement, and development. Development is the process by which an organism becomes a mature adult. Development involves cell division and cell differen- tiation, or specialization. As a result of development, an adult organism is composed of many cells specialized for different func- tions, such as carrying oxygen in the blood or hearing. In fact, the human body is composed of trillions of specialized cells, all of which originated from a single cell, the fertilized egg. This unicellular organism, Escherichia coli, inhabits the human intestines. E. coli reproduces by means of cell division, during which the original cell splits into two identical offspring cells. FIGURE 1-3 Observing Homeostasis Materials 500 mL beakers (3), wax pen, tap water, thermometer, ice, hot water, goldfish, small dip net, watch or clock with a second hand Procedure 1. Use a wax pen to label three 500 mL beakers as follows: 27°C (80°F), 20°C (68°F), 10°C (50°F). Put 250 mL of tap water in each beaker. Use hot water or ice to adjust the tem- perature of the water in each beaker to match the temperature on the label. 2. Put the goldfish in the beaker of 27°C water. Record the number of times the gills move in 1 minute. 3. Move the goldfish to the beaker of 20°C water. Repeat observations. Move the goldfish to the beaker of 10°C. Repeat observations. Analysis What happens to the rate at which gills move when the temp- erature changes? Why? How do gills help fish maintain homeostasis? Quick Lab mb06se_bios01.qxd 5/18/07 10:37 AM Page 8 THE SCIENCE OF LIFE 9 Reproduction All organisms produce new organisms like themselves in a process called reproduction. Reproduction, unlike other characteristics, is not essential to the survival of an individual organism. However, because no organism lives forever, reproduction is essential for the continuation of a species. Glass frogs, as shown in Figure 1-4, lay many eggs in their lifetime. However, only a few of the frogs’ off- spring reach adulthood and successfully reproduce. During reproduction, organisms transmit hereditary informa- tion to their offspring. Hereditary information is encoded in a large molecule called deoxyribonucleic acid, or DNA. A short segment of DNA that contains the instructions for a single trait of an organism is called a gene. DNA is like a large library. It contains all the books—genes—that the cell will ever need for making all the struc- tures and chemicals necessary for life. Hereditary information is transferred to offspring during two kinds of reproduction. In sexual reproduction, hereditary information recombines from two organisms of the same species. The resulting offspring are similar but not identical to their parents. For example, a male frog’s sperm can fertilize a female’s egg and form a single fer- tilized egg cell. The fertilized egg then develops into a new frog. In asexual reproduction, hereditary information from different organisms is not combined; thus the original organism and the new organism are genetically the same. A bacterium, for example, reproduces asexually when it splits into two identical cells. Change Through Time Although individual organisms experience many changes during their lifetime, their basic genetic characteristics do not change. However, populations of living organisms evolve or change through time. The ability of populations of organisms to change over time is important for survival in a changing world. This factor is also impor- tant in explaining the diversity of life-forms we see on Earth today. 1. How does biology affect a person’s daily life? 2. How does biology affect society? 3. Name the characteristics shared by living things. 4. Summarize the hierarchy of organization found in complex multicellular organisms. 5. What are the different functions of homeostasis and metabolism in living organisms? 6. How does the growth among living and nonliv- ing things differ? 7. Why is reproduction an important characteristic of life? CRITICAL THINKING 8. Applying Information Crystals of salt grow and are highly organized. Why don’t biologists con- sider them to be alive? 9. Analyzing Models When a scientist designs a space probe to detect life on a distant planet, what kinds of things should it measure? 10. Making Comparisons Both cells and organisms share the characteristics of life. How are cells and organismsood supply will be like in the near future.EVOLUTION OF LIFE Individual organisms change during their lifetime, but their basic genetic characteristics do not change. However, populations of liv- ing organisms do change through time, or evolve. Evolution, or descent with modification, is the process in which the inherited characteristics within populations change over generations, such that genetically distinct populations and new species can develop. Evolution as a theme in biology helps us understand how the various branches of the “tree of life” came into existence and have changed over time. It also explains how organisms alive today are related to those that lived in the past. Finally, it helps us understand the mechanisms that underlie the way organisms look and behave. Natural Selection The ability of populations of organisms to change over time is important for survival in a changing world. According to the theory of evolution by natural selection, organisms that have certain favorable traits are better able to survive and reproduce success- fully than organisms that lack these traits. One product of natural selection is the adaptation of organisms to their environment. Adaptations are traits that improve an indi- vidual’s ability to survive and reproduce. For example, rabbits with white fur and short ears in a snowy place, such as the one in Figure 1-7a, may avoid predators and frostbitten ears more often than those with dark fur and long ears. Thus, the next generation of rabbits will have a greater percentage of animals carrying the genes for white fur and short ears. In contrast, the brown, long- eared rabbit, as shown in Figure 1-7b, would survive and reproduce more successfully in a hot desert environment. The survival and reproductive success of organisms with favor- able traits cause a change in populations of organisms over gener- ations. This descent with modification is an important factor in explaining the diversity of organisms we see on Earth today. 1. Name three unifying themes found in biology. 2. How is the unity and diversity in the living world represented? 3. Identify the three domains and the kingdoms found in each domain. 4. How are organisms interdependent? 5. Describe why evolution is important in explain- ing the diversity of life. 6. Distinguish between evolution and natural selection. CRITICAL THINKING 7. Applying Information Assign the various top- pings you put on pizza to the appropriate domains and kingdoms of life. 8. Analyzing Graphics According to the “tree” in Figure 1-5, which of these pairs are more closely related: Archaea:Bacteria or Archaea:Eukarya? 9. Making Hypotheses Fossil evidence shows that bats descended from shrewlike organisms that could not fly. Write a hypothesis for how natural selection might have led to flying bats. SECTION 2 REVIEW (a) This short-eared arctic hare, Lepus arcticus, is hidden from predators and protected from frostbite in a snowy environment. (b) The mottled brown coats of desert rabbits blend in with the dirt and dry grasses, and their long ears help them radiate excess heat and thus avoid overheating. FIGURE 1-7 (a) (b) Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. THE SCIENCE OF LIFE 13 TH E STUDY OF BIOLOGY Curiosity leads us to ask questions about life. Science provides a way of answering such questions about the natural world. Science is a systematic method that involves forming and testing hypotheses. More importantly, science relies on evidence, not beliefs, for drawing conclusions. SCIENCE AS A PROCESS Science is characterized by an organized approach, called the scientific method, to learn how the natural world works. The methods of science are based on two important principles. The first principle is that events in the natural world have natural causes. For example, the ancient Greeks believed that lightning and thunder occurred because a supernatural god Zeus hurled thunderbolts from the heavens. By contrast, a scientist considers lightning and thunder to result from electric charges in the atmos- phere. When trying to solve a puzzle from nature, all scientists, such as the one in Figure 1-8, accept that there is a natural cause to solve that puzzle. A second principle of science is uniformity. Uniformity is the idea that the fundamental laws of nature operate the same way at all places and at all times. For example, scientists assume that the law of gravity works the same way on Mars as it does on Earth. Steps of the Scientific Method Although there is no single method for doing science, scientific studies involve a series of common steps. 1. The process of science begins with an observation. An observation is the act of perceiving a natural occurrence that causes someone to pose a question. 2. One tries to answer the question by forming hypotheses (singular, hypothesis). A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for the way a particular aspect of the natural world functions. 3. A prediction is a statement that forecasts what would happen in a test situation if the hypothesis were true. A prediction is recorded for each hypothesis. 4. An experiment is used to test a hypothesis and its predictions. 5. Once the experiment has been concluded, the data are analyzed and used to draw conclusions. 6. After the data have been analyzed, the data and conclusions are communicated to scientific peers and to the public. This way oth- ers can verify, reject, or modify the researcher’s conclusions. SECTION 3 OBJECTIVES ● Outline the main steps in the scientific method. ● Summarize how observations are used to form hypotheses. ● List the elements of a controlled experiment. ● Describe how scientists use data to draw conclusions. ● Compare a scientific hypothesis and a scientific theory. ● State how communication in science helps prevent dishonesty and bias. VOCABULARY scientific method observation hypothesis prediction experiment control group experimental group independent variable dependent variable theory peer review All researchers, such as the one releasing an owl above, use the scientific method to answer the questions they have about nature. FIGURE 1-8 Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. 14 CHAPTER 1 OBSERVING AND ASKING QUESTIONS The scientific method generally begins with an unexplained observa- tion about nature. For example, people have noticed for thousands of years that owls can catch prey in near total darkness. As shown in steps and of Figure 1-9, an observation may then raise ques- tions. The owl observation raises the question: How does an owl detect prey in the dark? FORMING A HYPOTHESIS After stating a question, a biologist lists possible answers to a sci- entific question—hypotheses. Good hypotheses answer a question and are testable in the natural world. For example, as shown in step Figure 1-9, there are several possible hypotheses for the question of how owls hunt at night: (a) owls hunt by keen vision in the dark; (b) owls hunt by superb hearing; or (c) owls hunt by detecting the prey’s body heat. Predicting To test a hypothesis, scientists make a prediction that logically fol- lows from the hypothesis. A prediction is what is expected to hap- pen if each hypothesis were true. For example, if hypothesis (a) is true, (owls hunt by keen night vision) then one can predict that the owl will pounce only on the mouse in either a light or a dark room. If hypothesis (b) is true (owls hunt by hearing), then one can pre- dict that in a lighted room, the owl will pounce closer to the mouse’s head. But, in a dark room, the owl should pounce closer to a rustling leaf attached to the mouse. Finally, if hypothesis (c) is true (owls hunt by sensing body heat), then an owl would strike only the prey no matter the room conditions, because owls hunt by detecting the prey’s body heat. 3 1 2 Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. A scientific study includes observations, questions, hypotheses, predictions, experiments, data analysis, and conclu- sions. A biologist can use the scientific method to set up an experiment to learn how an owl captures prey at night. FIGURE 1-9 1 OBSERVATION Owls capture prey on dark nights. 2 QUESTION How do owls detect prey on dark nights? 3 HYPOTHESES a) Owls hunt in the dark by vision. b) Owls hunt in the dark by hearing. c) Owls hunt in the dark by sensing body heat. THE SCIENCE OF LIFE 15 Notice that these predictions make it difficult to distinguish be- tween the vision and body heat hypotheses. The reason is that both hypotheses predict that the owl could grab the mouse in a dark room. Also, these three hypotheses do not eliminate all other factors that could influence how the owl finds its prey. However, testing predictions can allow one to begin rejecting hypotheses and thus to get closer to determining the answer(s) to a question. DESIGNING AN EXPERIMENT Biologists often test hypotheses by setting up an experiment. Step in Figure 1-9 outlines an experiment to test the hypotheses about how an owl hunts at night. First, experimenters set up a room with an owl perch high on one side and a small trap door on the other side for releasing mice. Then, they tied a leaf to each mouse’s tail with a string and released each mouse into the room. Next, each mouse ran silently across the room, but the leaf trailed behind, making a rustling noise. During half of the trials, the lights were on. During the other half, the room was dark. Technicians videotaped all the action in the chamber with an infrared light, which owls cannot see. The researchers then viewed the videos and measured the position of the owl’s strike relative to each mouse’s head. Performing the Experiment Many scientists use a controlled experiment to test their hypotheses. A controlled experiment compares an experimental group and a control group and only has one variable. The control group pro- vides a normal standard against which the biologist can compare results of the experimental group. The experimental group is iden- tical to the control group except for one factor, the independent variable. The experimenter manipulates the independent variable, sometimes called the manipulated variable. 4 4 EXPERIMENT 5 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Measure and compare the distance from the owl’s strike to the mouse and to the leaf in light and dark. 6 CONCLUSION Data supported the hearing hypothesis: Owls hunt in the dark by hearing. prey Test predictions of the three hypotheses. Control: In the light Experimental: In the dark 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Predicting Results Materials 2 Petri dishes with agar, cellophane tape, wax pen Procedure 1. Open one of the Petri dishes, and streak your finger across the surface of the agar. 2. Replace the lid, and seal it with the tape. Label this Petri dish with your name and a number 1. 3. Seal the second Petri dish with- out removing the lid. Label this Petri dish with your name and the number 2. 4. Write a prediction about what will happen in each dish. Store your dishes as your teacher directs. Record your observations. Follow your teacher’s directions for disposal of your dishes. Analysis Was your prediction accurate? What evidence can you cite to support your prediction? If you did not obtain the results you predicted, would you change your testing method or your prediction? Explain. Evaluate the importance of obtaining a result that does not support your prediction. Quick Lab mb06se_bios03.qxd 5/18/07 10:40 AM Page 15 16 CHAPTER 1 The independent variable in the owl experiment is the presence or absence of light. In the owl experiment, the control group hunts in the light, and the experimental group hunts in the dark. In addi- tion to varying the independent variable, a scientist observes or measures another factor called the dependent variable, or respond- ing variable, because it is affected by the independent variable. In the owl experiment, the dependent variable is distance from the owl’s strike to the mouse’s head. Testing the Experiment Some controlled experiments are conducted “blind.” In other words, the biologist who scores the results is unaware of whether a given subject is part of the experimental or control group. This factor helps eliminate experimenter bias. Experiments should also be repeated, because living systems are variable. Moreover, scien- tists must collect enough data to find meaningful results. COLLECTING AND ANALYZING DATA Most experiments measure a variable—the dependent variable. This measurement provides quantitative data, data measured in numbers. For example, in the experiment above, scientists mea- sured the distance of an owl’s strike from the prey’s head in cen- timeters, as shown in step of Figure 1-9. An event’s duration in milliseconds is also an example of quantitative data. Biologists usually score the results of an experiment by using one of their senses. They might see or hear the results of an experiment. Scientists also extend their senses with a micro- scope for tiny objects or a microphone for soft sounds. In the owl experiment, biologists extended their vision with infrared cameras. Analyzing and Comparing Data After collecting data from a field study or an experiment and then organizing it, biologists then analyze the data. In analyzing data, the goal is to determine whether the data are reliable, and whether they support or fail to support the predictions of the hypothesis. To do so, scientists may use statistics to help determine relation- ships between the variables involved. They can then compare their data with other data that were obtained in other similar studies. It is also important at this time to determine possible sources of error in the experiment just per- formed. Scientists usually display their data in tables or graphs when analyzing it. For the owl study, biologists could have made a bar graph such as the one in Figure 1-10, which shows the average distance from the owl’s strike relative to the mouse’s head or the leaf in the light and in the dark. 5 5 0 10 15 20 25 In the light In the dark Average distance from strike (cm) Distance Between Owl Strike and a Mouse or From a Leaf Attached to Mouse 30 Mouse Leaf Mouse Leaf The data below are hypothetical results that might occur from the described owl experiment.The independent variable is the darkness of the room, and the dependent variable is how far the owl struck from the mouse’s head.The data show that the owl strikes more accurately at the mouse in the light but strikes more accurately at the leaf in the dark. FIGURE 1-10 Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. THE SCIENCE OF LIFE 17 DRAWING CONCLUSIONS Biologists analyze their tables, graphs, and charts to draw conclu- sions about whether or not a hypothesis is supported, as shown in step of Figure 1-9. The hypothetical owl data show that in the light, owls struck with greater accuracy at the mouse than at the leaf, but in the dark, owls struck with greater accuracy at the leaf than the mouse. Thus, the findings support the hearing hypothe- sis, but not the vision hypothesis. An experiment can only disprove, not prove, a hypothesis. For example, one cannot conclude from the results that the hearing hypothesis is proven to be true. Perhaps the owl uses an unknown smell to strike at the mouse. One can only reject the vision hypothe- sis because it did not predict the results of the experiment correctly. Acceptance of a hypothesis is always tentative in science. The scientific community revises its understanding of phenomena, based on new data. Having ruled out one hypothesis, a biologist will devise more tests to try to rule out any remaining hypotheses. Making Inferences Scientists often draw inferences from data gathered during a field study or experiment. An inference (IN-fuhr-uhns) is a conclusion made on the basis of facts and previous knowledge rather than on direct observations. Unlike a hypothesis, an inference is not directly testable. In the owl study, it is inferred that the owl detects prey from a distance rather than by direct touch. Applying Results and Building Models As shown in Figure 1-11, scientists often apply their findings to solve practical problems. They also build models to represent or describe things. For example in 1953, James Watson and Francis Crick used cardboard balls and wire bars to build physical models of atoms in an attempt to understand the structure of DNA. Mathematical models are sets of equations that describe how dif- ferent measurable items interact in a system. The experimenter can adjust variables to better model the real-world data. CONSTRUCTING A THEORY When a set of related hypotheses is confirmed to be true many times, and it can explain a great amount of data, scientists often reclassify it as a theory. Some examples include the quantum the- ory, the cell theory, or the theory of evolution. People commonly use the word “theory” in a different way than scientists use the word. People may say “It’s just a theory” suggesting that an idea is untested, but scientists view a theory as a highly tested, generally accepted principle that explains a vast number of observations and experimental data. 6 Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. Biologists often apply their knowledge of the natural world to practical problems. Studies on the owl’s keen ability to locate sounds in space despite background noise are helping biotechnologists and bioengineers develop better solutions for people with impaired hearing, such as the people shown in this picture. FIGURE 1-11 18 CHAPTER 1 COMMUNICATING IDEAS An essential aspect of scientific research is scientists working together. Scientists often work together in research teams or sim- ply share research results with other scientists. This is done by publishing findings in scientific journals or presenting them at sci- entific meetings, as shown in Figure 1-12. Sharing information allows others working independently to verify findings or to con- tinue work on established results. For example, Roger Payne pub- lished the results of his owl experiments in a journal in 1971. Then, other biologists could repeat it for verification or use it to study the mechanisms introduced by the paper. With the growing impor- tance of science in solving societal issues, it is becoming increas- ingly vital for scientists to be able to communicate with the public at large. Publishing a Paper Scientists submit research papers to scientific journals for publica- tion. A typical research paper has four sections. First, the Introduction poses the problem and hypotheses to be investigated. Next, the Materials and Methods describe how researchers proceeded with the experiment. Third, the Results state the findings the experiment presented, and finally, the Discussion gives the significance of the experiment and future directions the scientists will take. Job Description Forensic biolo- gists are scientists who study biological materials to investigate potential crimes and other legal issues against humans and animals. Forensic scientists have knowledge in areas of biology, such as DNA and blood pattern analysis, and work in private sector and public laboratories. Focus On a Forensic Biologist As a law enforcement forensic specialist for the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, Beverly Villarreal assists the game warden in investigations of fish and wildlife violations, such as illegal hunting and fishing. Villarreal analyzes blood and tissue samples to identify species of animals such as fish, birds, and reptiles. Her work helps game wardens as they enforce state laws regarding hunting and fishing. Most people think of forensic scientists as the glamorous crime investigators on TV, but according to Villarreal real forensic scientists “spend a great deal of time at a lab bench running analysis after analysis.” Many of the methods used in animal forensics, such as DNA sequenc- ing, are also used in human forensics. Education and Skills • High school—three years of science courses and four years of math courses. • College—bachelor of science in biol- ogy, including course work in zoology and genetics, plus experience in per- forming DNA analyses. • Skills—patience, attention to detail, and ability to use fine tools. Careers in BIOLOGY Forensic Biologist For more about careers, visit go.hrw.com and type in the keyword HM6 Careers. www.scilinks.org Topic: Scientific Investigations Keyword: HM61358 mb06se_bios03.qxd 5/18/07 10:40 AM Page 18 THE SCIENCE OF LIFE 19 1. What two principles make the scientific method a unique process? 2. Define the roles of observations and hypotheses in science. 3. Summarize the parts of a controlled experiment. 4. Summarize how we make conclusions about the results of an experiment. 5. Why is the phrase, “it’s just a theory” misleading? 6. Give another example of a conflict of interest. CRITICAL THINKING 7. Making Hypotheses On a nocturnal owl’s skull, one ear points up, and the other ear points down. Suggest a hypothesis for this observation. 8. Designing Experiments Design an experiment to establish if owls hunt by keen sight or hunt by heat seeking. 9. Calculating Information What was the average distance between the owl’s strike and the mouse if the recorded differences in this experiment were 25, 22, 19, 19, and 15? SECTION 3 REVIEW After scientists submit their papers to a scientific journal, the editors of that journal will send the paper out for peer review. In a peer review, scientists who are experts in the field anonymously read and critique that research paper. They determine if a paper pro- vides enough information so that the experiment can be duplicated and if the author used good experimental controls and reached an accurate conclusion. They also check if the paper is written clearly enough for broad understanding. Careful analysis of each other’s research by fellow scientists is essential to making scientific progress and preventing scientific dishonesty. HONESTY AND BIAS The scientific community depends on both honesty and good sci- ence. While designing new studies, experimenters must be very careful to prevent previous ideas and biases from tainting both the experimental process and the conclusions. Scientists have to keep in mind that they are always trying to disprove their favorite ideas. Scientists repeat experiments to verify previous findings. This allows for science to have a method for self-correction and it also keeps researchers honest and credible to their peers in the field. Conflict of Interest For most scientists, maintaining a good reputation for collecting and presenting valid data is more important than temporary prestige or income. So, scientists try to avoid any potential conflicts of interest. For example, a scientist who owns a biotechnology company and manufactures a drug would not be the best researcher to critically test that drug’s safety and effectiveness. To avoid this potential con- flict of interest, the scientist allows an unaffected party, such as a research group, to test the drug’s effectiveness. The threat of a potential scandal based on misleading data or conclusions is a pow- erful force in science that helps keep scientists honest and fair. Scientists present their experiments in various forms. The scientists above are presenting their work in the form of a poster at a scientific meeting. FIGURE 1-12 Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. The Internet can provide a wealth of scientific information for a report, but the information may not always be credible or accurate. You can use the methods above to check the accuracy and credibility of your sources. SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY SCIENCE ON THE INTERNET: A New Information Age I n the past, students research- ing a science topic would typ- ically begin their research by visiting a library to use printed reference materials, such as encyclopedias. Today, most stu- dents research topics by using a computer and searching for information on the Internet. The Internet can provide students with a wealth of infor- mation. But which Web sites have accurate information, and which Web sites do not? Checking Web Addresses Students should use the Web address, or URL, to establish the Web site’s credibility. Usually, the domain name can suggest who has published the Web site. Web sites can be pub- lished by governmental agen- cies (ends in “dot gov” or .gov), by educational institutions (ends in “dot edu” or .edu), by organizations (ends in “dot org” or .org), or by commercial businesses (ends in “dot com” or .com). Government Web sites are usually reliable. Examples of credible governmental Web sites are the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). University and medical school sites are also reliable sources of information. Many organiza- tions that research and teach the public about specific diseases and conditions can also provide reliable information. Examples of such organizations are the American Cancer Society and the American Heart Association. Evaluating Web Sites The credibility of the author of the Web site should also be checked. Make sure the author is not trying to sell anything and is established in his or her field. For example, a health Web site’s author should be a med- ical professional. It is also important to check the date that the information was posted on the Web to ensure that the information is current. Also, the Web site should provide ref- erences from valid sources, such as scientific journals or govern- ment publications. Finally, the student should always double-check informa- tion between several reliable Web sites. If two or three reliable sites provide the same informa- tion, the student can feel confi- dent in using that information. Web Sites for Students The Internet Connect boxes in this textbook have all been reviewed by professionals at the National Science Teachers Association (NSTA). Students can trust that these sites are reliable sources for science- or health-related topics. REVIEW 1. Which types of Web addresses are the most reliable? 2. List four important features to evaluate when using a Web site for research. 3. Supporting Reasoned Opinions Why do you think a Web site that is advertising a product may not offer accurate information? REVIEW 20 www.scilinks.org Topic: Using the Internet Keyword: HM61589 mb06se_biosts.qxd 5/18/07 10:42 AM Page 20 TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES With proper equipment and good methods, biologists can see, manipulate, and understand the natural world in new ways. Microscopes are one of many useful tools used to unlock nature’s biological secrets. MICROSCOPES AS TOOLS Tools are objects used to improve the performance of a task. Microscopes are tools that extend human vision by making enlarged images of objects. Biologists use microscopes to study organisms, cells, cell parts, and molecules. Microscopes reveal details that otherwise might be difficult or impossible to see. Light Microscopes To see small organisms and cells, biologists typically use a light microscope, such as the one shown in Figure 1-13. A compound light microscope is a microscope that shines light through a spec- imen and has two lenses to magnify an image. To use this micro- scope, one first mounts the specimen to be viewed on a glass slide. The specimen must be thin enough for light to pass through it. For tiny pond organisms, such as the single-celled paramecium, light passing through the organism is not a problem. For thick objects, such as plant stems, biologists must cut thin slices for viewing. There are four major parts of a compound light microscope. For further description of the parts of a micro- scope, see the Appendix. 1. Eyepiece The eyepiece (ocular (AHK-yoo-luhr) lens) magnifies the image, usually 10 times. 2. Objective Lens Light passes through the specimen and then through the objective lens, which is located directly above the specimen. The objective lens enlarges the image of the specimen. Scientists sometimes use stains to make the image easier to see. 3. Stage The stage is a platform that supports a slide holding the specimen. The slide is placed over the opening in the stage of the microscope. 4. Light Source The light source is a light bulb that provides light for viewing the image. It can be either light reflected with a mirror or an incandescent light from a small lamp. SECTION 4 OBJECTIVES ● List the function of each of the major parts of a compound light microscope. ● Compare two kinds of electron microscopes. ● Describe the importance of having the SI system of measurement. ● State some examples of good laboratory practice. VOCABULARY compound light microscope eyepiece (ocular lens) objective lens stage light source magnification nosepiece resolution scanning electron microscope transmission electron microscope metric system base unit Compound light microscopes open the human eye to an interesting world including tiny pond organisms, healthy and diseased cells, and the functioning of cell parts. FIGURE 1-13 Objective lens Eyepiece (ocular lens) Stage Light THE SCIENCE OF LIFE 21 Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. 22 CHAPTER 1 Magnification and Resolution Microscopes vary in powers of magnification and resolution. Magnification is the increase of an object’s apparent size. Revolving the nosepiece, the structure that holds the set of objective lens, rotates these lenses into place above the specimen. In a typical com- pound light microscope, the most powerful objective lens produces an image up to 100 times (100) the specimen’s actual size. The degree of enlargement is called the power of magnification of the lens. The standard ocular lens magnifies a specimen 10 times (10). To compute the power of magnification of a microscope, the power of magnification of the strongest objective lens (in this case, 100) is multiplied by the power of magnification of the ocular lens (10). The result is a total power of magnification of 1000. Resolution (REZ-uh-LOO-shuhn) is the power to show details clearly in an image. The physical properties of light limit the ability of light microscopes to resolve images, as shown in Figure 1-14a. At pow- ers of magnification beyond about 2,000, the image of the speci- men becomes fuzzy. For this reason, scientists use other microscopes to view very small cells