FUTURE FORMS (PLANS)

Why and How Managers Plan Importance of planning The planing process Benefits of planning Planning and time management Types of PLans used by managers Long term and short term plans Strageic and tactical plans Operational plans Planning Tools and Techiqunes Forecasting Contrigency planning Scenario planning Benchmaking Use of staff planners Implementing Plans to Achive Results Goal setting Goal management Goal alignment Participation and involvement Planning Def: The process of setting objectives and determining how best to accomplish them Planning at Eaton Corporation “Making the hard decision before events force them upon you, an anticipating the future needs of the market before the demand asset itself Objectives and goals Identifity the specific results or desired outcomes that one intends to achieve Plan Def: A statement of action steps to be taken in order to accomplish the objectives (goals) Steps in the planning process: Define your objectives Determine where you stand vis-a-vis objectives Develpo premises reagrdsing future conditions Analyze alternatives and make a plan Implement the plan and evaluate results What are the benefits of planning Improves focus and flexibility Imporves action orteitation Imporves coordination and control Imporves time management Time Managment Personal time management tips Do say “no” to request that distract you form what you should be doing Dont get bogged down inn details that can be addressed later Do screen telephone calls, emails and meeting request Dont let drop in visitors, text messaging use up your time Do prioritize your important and urgent work Dont become calendar bound by letting other control your schedule Do follow priorities; do most important and urgent work first Some 77% of mangers in one survey said that digital age has increased th number of decisions they have to make 43% said there was less time available to make these decisions Types of plans used by Managers What is teh time horizon Long term vs Short term Long term Look three or more years into teh future Short term plans Typically cover one year or less However: the increasing environmental complexity and dynamism of recent years has severely tested the concept of “long-term” planning Plans are subject to frequent revisions Most executives would likely agree that these complexities adn uncertainties challenge how er actually go about planning and how far ahead we can really plan At the very least we can conclude that there is a lot less permanency to long term plans today and that tey are subject to frequent revision Managment reaeracher Eillot Jaques believes tha people vary in their capability to think with different time horizons Types of Plans used by Managers (3 of 5) Strategic plans Set broad, comprehensive and linger term action directions for teh entire organization or major division Vision Clarifies purpose of the organization and what it hopes to be on the future Typical plans Specify how the organizations resources are used to implement strategy Tactical plans in business often take the form of functional plans Functional plans Incidate how different component within the organiztion will help accompnlish the overall strategy Production plans Finacial plans Facilites Plans Logisitc plans Marketing plans Human Resource Plans Operation plans Describe short-term activities to implement strategic plans Policies: Are standing plans that communicate guidelines for decisions Ex: Policies on office romances: The media is quick to report when a top executive or public figures runs into trouble over an office affair. Are there ant policies on office romances? Employer polices on office raltioshiis vary. One survey find teh following: 24% prohibit relationships among employees in the same department 13% prohibit relationships among employees who have the smae supervisor 80% prohibit relationships between supervisors and subordinates 5% have no restrictions on office romances Procedures: Are rules that describe actions to be taken in specific situations Budgets: are single use plans that commit resources to projects or activities Zero based budgets: allocate resources as if each budget were brand new There is no guarantee that any past funding will be renwer. All propsales, old and new, must compete for available funds at teh start of each new budget cycle Forcasting Attempts to predict the future Qualitaive forecasting uses expert opinions Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statiscal aanylsis of historical data dna surveys Contingency planning Identify alternative course of action to take when things go wrong Anticipate changing conditions Contain trigger points to indicate when to activate plan (or a specific course of action) Scenario planning A long term version of contingency planning Identifying alternative future scenarios Plans made for each future scenario Increases organizations flexibility and preparation for future shocks Benchmarking Use of external and internal comparisons to better evaluate current performance Adopting best practices: things people adn organization do that lead to superior performance Staff Planners Experts who assist in all steps of the planning process They help bring focus and expertise to a wide variety of planning tasks Important: Communication between staff planers landline managers is essential for teh success of teh planning process Goal Setting - Always set SMART goal The solution: Goal Aligment Between Team Leader and Team Member Jonintly plan: Set objectives, set standards, choose actions Individually acy: Perform tasks (member), provide support (leader) Jointly control: Review results, discuss implications, renew cycle x4 Collective effort and commitment Participatroy planning Includes in all planning steps that people who will be affected by the plans adn askedd to help implement them Unloacks motivational potential of goal setting Management by objective (MBO) promotes participation Participation increases understanding and acceptance of plan and commitment to success Participatory planning - Number of people involved in teh decision making process Amazon is intensely focused on what it does. It believes in creating tight single-threaded teams, also known as “2 pizza team.” Data and Decision Making What are some of the important competencies managers must have today? Delegate Marketing and technology Manager must have Technological competency Ability to understand new technologies and to use them to their best advantage Information competency Ability to locate, gather, organize and display information for decision-making and problem solving Analytical competency Ability to evaluate and analyze information to make actual decisions and solve real problems What is the difference between Data and Information Data Raw facts and observation Information Data made useful and meaningful for decision-making Important concepts Big data Exists in huge quantities and is difficult to process without sophisticated mathematical and analytical techniques Data production today Bernard Marr is an internationally best-selling author. He helps organizations improve their business performance, use data more intelligently Data mining The process of analyzing data to produce useful information for decision-makers Management Analytics The systematic evaluation and analysis of data to make informed decision Information drives management Bad Data Refers to information that can be erroneous, misleading, and without general formatting The challenge: Can er use the data that is available in the “Big Data” Needs to be valid Can not trust everything out there Being ethical Look at the trends Data is structured and unstructured Data BIg Data = Structured + Unstructured Information Drive Management decision making What are the characteristics of useful information Easy to access If its credible Accurate Characteristics of useful information: Timely High quality Complete Relevant Understandable What about bad data It's not credible Miss information If it is not structured/ organized Bias based on opinions Confusing If its updated Bad data Refers to information that can be erroneous miss What are some examples of Management information system Business intelligence -BI Information systems to extract and report data in organized ways that are useful to decision-makers Executive dashboards Visually update and display key performance metrics (or Key Performance Indicators -KPIs) and information on a real-time basis Information needs in organization External Environment Information exchanges with the external environment Gather intelligence information Provide public information Information needs within the organizations (internal Enviroement) Information exchange within the organization Facilitate decision making Facilitate problem-solving Managers as information processors Continually gather, share and receive information Now as much electronic as it is face-to-face Always on, always connected How many people telecommute at least once a week 70% of people globally work remotely at least once a week, Work at home after covid 19 our forecast Our best estimate it that 25-30% of the workforce will be working form home multiple days a week by the end of 2021 As of 2023, 12.7% of full time employees work from home, while 28.2% work a hybrid model Managers as problem solvers Problem-solving The process of identifying a discrepancy between actual and desired performance and taking action to resolve it Ishikawa Fishbone diagram To identify the cause of problems Decision A choice among possible alternative courses of action Performance threat Something is wrong or has the potential to go wrong Performance opportunity The situation offers the chance for a better future if the right steps are taken Problem-solving approaches or style - from textbook Problem avoiders Inactive in information gathering and solving problems Problem seekers Proactive in anticipation of problems and opportunities and taking appropriate action to gain an advantage Problem solvers Reactive in gathering information and solving problem Managers - can approach problems in a systematic or intuitive manner Systematic thinking approaches problem in rational, step-by-step and analytical fashion Intuitive thinking approaches problems in a flexible and spontaneous fashion Multidimensional thinking- applies both intuitive and systematic thinking Managers face structured and unstructured problems Structure problems Are ones that are familiar, straight forward, and clear with respect to information needs Program decisions apply solutions that are readily available from past experiences to solve structured problems Know how to solve them Familiar Know what we are dealing with Unstructured problems Are ones that are full of ambiguities and information deficiencies Nonprogrammed decisions apply a specific solution to meet the demands of a unique problem Commonly faced by higher-level management Crisis decision making A crisis involves an unexpected problem that can lead to disaster if not resolved quickly and appropriately Ruled for crisis management Figure out what is going on Remember that speed matters Remember that slow counts, too Respect the danger of the unfamiliar Value the skeptic Be ready to “fight fire with fire” Managers make decisions with various amounts of information Certain environment Offers complete information on possible action alternatives and their consequences Risk environment Lacks complete information but offers probabilities of the likely outcomes for possible action alternatives Uncertain environment Lacks so much information that it is difficult to assign probabilities to the likely outcomes of alternative Ex: Certain and uncertain environments: The worldwide Governance Indicators for over 200 countries, comparing distinct environments (Canada-Brazil) Step 1-Identify and define the problem Focuses on information gathering information processing and deliberation Decision objectives should be established What are some common mistakes in definding problems? Common mistakes in defining problems Defining the problem too broadly or too narrowly Focusing on symptoms instead of causes Choosing the wrong problem to deal with Step 2- Generate and Evaluate Alternative Courses of Action Potential solutions are formulated and more information is gathered, data are analyzed, the advantages and disadvantages of alternative solutions are identified Common mistakes: Abandoning the search for alternatives too quickly Step 3- Decide on a preferred course of Action Two different approaches Behavioural model leads to satisficing decisions Classical model les to optimising decisions Behavioural Model Rationality is bounded because: There are limits our thinks capacity Available information (incomplete) Time constraints Step 4-Implement the decision Involves taking action to make sure the solution decided upon becomes a reality Managers need to have the willingness and ability to implement action plans Problems: Lack of participation error should be avoided Step 5 - Evaluate Results Involves comparing actual and desired results The positive and negative consequences of the chosen course of action should be examined If actual results fall short desire results, the manager returns to earlier steps in the decision-making process At all steps, check ethical reasoning Ask these spotlight questions Utility Does teh decision satisfy all constituents or stakeholders Rights Does the description respect the rights and duties of everyone? Justice Is the decision consistent with the canons of justice Caring Is the decision consistent with my responsibilities to care? Issues in decision-making How do errors happen? Heuristics: are strategies for simplifying decision-making Availability Bias: Bases a decision on recent information or events Representativeness bias: Bases a decision on similarity to other situations Anchoring and Adjustment Bias: Bases a decision on incremental adjustment from a prior decision point Framing error: Tring to solve a problem in the context perceived, positive or negative Confirmation Error: Focusing on information that confirms a decision already made Escalating commitment: Continuing a course of action even though it is not working Creative Decision making Creativity is the generation of a novel idea or unique approach that solves a problem or crafts an opportunity Big C: Creativity occurs when extraordinary things are done by exceptional people Little C: Creativity occurs when average people come up with unique ways to deal with daily events and situations The three types of situational creativity drivers Chapter review What are objectives and goals? The specific results or desired outcomes What are the 5 characteristics of great (SMART) goals? Forecasting - Attempts Qualitative forecasting uses options Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models and statistical analysis of historical data and surveys Scenarios-Oracle’s crystal ball combines qualitative and quantitative methods

A Choose the correct answer. 1 When his grandma died, he came ….. some of her money and property. A into C across B up D round 2 We should try to ….. the amount of rubbish in our area. A increase C provide B improve D reduce 3 I avoid driving to work because there are always ….. jams in the centre. A transport C power B traffic D station 4 By the end of the year, there will be more ….. farms in our city. A solar C floating B vertical D electric 5 Who is going to ….. our new piano? A deal C deliver B produce D construct 6 She doesn’t like being ….. in the house; she wants people around her. A healthy C lonely B crowded D alone 7 Why don’t you come ….. for dinner tonight? A up C over B into D back 8 Mr Jones has found the cure for a serious ….. . A disease C crime B pollution D poverty 9 Scientists are hopeful ….. the future of energy sources. A for C about B in D with 10 Do you think ….. tube trains will ever be used? A drone C charging B front D vacuum Grammar B Choose the correct answer. 1 I’ll still ….. two hours from now. A have gardened C garden B have gardening D be gardening 2 ….. you ….. your homework by 7 o’clock? A Will ... finish C Will … have finished B Will … be finishing D Won’t … finish 3 By 2100, experts ….. new energy sources. A will have discovered C will be discovering B will be discovered D will discover 4 The film will have started before we ….. there. A will have got C get B will get D will be getting 5 This time tomorrow, Sheila ….. a job interview. A will have C will be having B is having D will have had 6 David ..... back from work by dinner time. A will be coming C will have come B will come D won’t be coming 7 I can’t believe that in a few hours, we ….. our first live concert. A are performing C will have performed B will be performing D will perform 8 ….. next Friday, I will be flying to Glasgow. A This time C By B At D Until 9 Jake ….. by the end of September. A will retire C will have retired B is retiring D will be retiring 10 ….. the time Mum gets home, I will have tidied my room. A Before C Until B At D By Everyday English C Choose the correct answer. 1 A: How did you find that job? B: a I’ll be working in the local library. b I’ll be there from June 15th. c There was an advert online. 2 A: I can’t wait! B: a Sounds like fun. b I’ll work in my uncle’s restaurant. c I’ll stay there for two weeks. 3 A: Do you have any plans for the summer? B: a Really? b What about you? c Haven’t I told you? 4 A: What will your duties be? B: a I’ll be flying to London to see my uncle. b I’ll be helping customers. c I’ll have earned enough money to buy a new smartphone. 5 A: How long will you stay there? B: a Until the end of July. b Well, this time next week, I’ll be relaxing. c And what are your plans?

A symbiosis (SIM-bie-OH-sis) is a close, long-term relationship between two organisms. Three examples of symbiotic relation- ships include: parasitism, mutualism, and commensalism. Parasitism (PAR-uh-SIET-IZ-UHM) is a relationship in which one indi- vidual is harmed while the other individual benefits. Mutualism (MYOO-choo-uhl-IZ-uhm) is a relationship in which both organisms derive some benefit. In commensalism (kuh-MEN-suhl-IZ-uhm), one organism benefits, but the other organism is neither helped nor harmed. Parasitism Parasitism is similar to predation in that one organism, called the host, is harmed and the other organism, called the parasite, benefits. However, unlike many forms of predation, parasitism usually does not result in the immediate death of the host. Generally, the parasite feeds on the host for a long time rather than kills it. Parasites such as aphids, lice, leeches, fleas, ticks, and mosquitoes that remain on the outside of their host are called ectoparasites. Parasites that live inside the host’s body are called endoparasites. Familiar endoparasites are heart- worms, disease-causing protists, and tapeworms, such as the one shown in Figure 20-5. Natural selection favors adaptations that allow a parasite to exploit its host efficiently. Parasites are usually specialized anatomically and physiologically for a par- asitic lifestyle. Parasites can have a strong negative impact on the health and reproduction of the host. Consequently, hosts have evolved a variety of defenses against parasites. Skin is an important defense that prevents most parasites from entering the body. Tears, saliva, and mucus defend openings through which parasites could pass, such as the eyes, mouth, and nose. Finally, the cells of the immune system may attack para- sites that get past these defenses. parasite from the Latin word parasitus, meaning “one who eats at the table of another” Word Roots and Origins Tapeworms are endoparasites that can grow to 20 m or greater in length. Tapeworms are so specialized for a parasitic lifestyle that they do not have a digestive system. They live in the host’s small intestine and absorb nutrients directly through their skin. Tapeworms reproduce by producing egg-filled chambers, which are released in their host’s feces to be unknowingly picked up by a future host. FIGURE 20-5 Copyright © by Holt, Rinehart and Winston. All rights reserved. 404 CHAPTER 20 Mutualism Mutualism is a relationship in which two species derive some benefit from each other. Some mutualistic relation- ships are so close that neither species can survive without the other. An example of mutualism, shown in Figure 20-6, involves ants and some species of Acacia plants. The ants nest inside the acacia’s large thorns and receive food from the acacia. In turn, the ants protect the acacia from herbi- vores and cut back competing vegetation. Pollination is one of the most important mutualistic rela- tionships on Earth. Animals such as bees, butterflies, flies, beetles, bats, and birds that carry pollen between flowering plants are called pollinators. A flower is a lure for pollina- tors, which are attracted by the flower’s color, pattern, shape, or scent. The plant usually provides food—in the form of nectar or pollen—for its pollinators. As a pollinator feeds in a flower, it picks up a load of pollen, which it may then carry to other flowers of the same species. Commensalism Commensalism is an interaction in which one species benefits and the other species is not affected. Species that scavenge for leftover food items are often considered commensal species. However, a relationship that appears to be commensalism may simply be mutu- alism in which the mutual benefits are not apparent. An example of a commensal relationship is the relationship between cattle egrets and Cape buffaloes in Tanzania. The birds feed on small animals such as insects and lizards that are forced out of their hiding places by the movement of the buffaloes through the grass. Occasionally, the cattle egrets also feed on ectoparasites from the hide of the buffaloes, but the buffaloes gen- erally do not benefit from the presence of the egrets.

Introduction to Hedging Instruments: Forwards, Futures, Options, and Swaps Hedging instruments are financial tools used by businesses and investors to mitigate risk. These instruments help protect against adverse price movements in assets such as commodities, currencies, interest rates, or securities. The four main hedging instruments are forwards, futures, options, and swaps. 1. Forwards A forward contract is a customised agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Key Characteristics: Over-the-counter (OTC): Traded directly between parties, not on an exchange. Customisation: Can be tailored to suit the needs of the parties involved. Settlement: Occurs at the end of the contract, which may involve physical delivery or cash settlement. Risk: Forwards carry counter-party risk, as there is a possibility one party may default. Example: A company that needs to import raw materials in six months may enter into a forward contract to lock in the current price, avoiding the risk of price increases. 2. Futures A futures contract is similar to a forward, but it is standardised and traded on an exchange. This standardisation eliminates counter-party risk. Key Characteristics: Standardised: Contract size, expiration, and other terms are fixed by the exchange. Mark-to-market: Gains and losses are settled daily. Liquidity: Futures are highly liquid because they are traded on exchanges. Regulation: As they are traded on formal exchanges, they are more regulated than forwards. Example: A wheat farmer may sell futures contracts to hedge against a possible decline in wheat prices before harvest. 3. Options Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specified price on or before a certain date. There are two types of options: call options and put options. Call Option: Gives the holder the right to buy an asset at a predetermined price. Put Option: Gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price. Key Characteristics: Premium: The buyer pays a premium upfront to obtain the option. Limited Risk: The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. Flexibility: Options can be used for speculative or hedging purposes. Example: An investor holding stocks may buy a put option to protect against potential declines in the stock's price. 4. Swaps A swap is a contract in which two parties agree to exchange cash flows or liabilities over a specific period. The most common types are interest rate swaps and currency swaps. Key Characteristics: Customizable: Like forwards, swaps are often tailored to meet the needs of the parties involved. Counterparty Risk: Swaps are typically OTC instruments, exposing parties to default risk. Common Uses: Used to manage interest rate risk or currency risk. Example: A company with a variablerate loan may enter into an interest rate swap to exchange its variable payments for fixedrate payments, thus locking in stable costs. Hedging instruments are essential for managing financial risk in volatile markets. Each instrument serves different purposes, with varying levels of complexity, risk, and customization. Whether through forwards, futures, options, or swaps, businesses can better plan for the future by reducing exposure to uncertain price fluctuations. Hedging Strategies for Market Risk, Credit Risk, and Currency Risk 1. Hedging Strategies for Market Risk Market risk (also known as systematic risk) arises from fluctuations in asset prices, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and interest rates, due to economic factors or market volatility. Key Hedging Instruments for Market Risk: Derivatives (Options, Futures, and Forwards): These instruments allow investors to hedge against unfavorable price movements in stocks, commodities, or interest rates. Example: An investor holding a large stock portfolio might buy a put option to protect against a potential market downturn. If the market declines, the put option increases in value, offsetting losses in the portfolio. Short Selling: Investors can sell borrowed assets with the expectation of buying them back at a lower price, profiting from the decline. Example: A fund manager expecting a market decline may short sell stocks to hedge a portfolio against losses. Common Hedging Strategies: Portfolio Diversification: Reducing market risk by spreading investments across various asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) and sectors. Using Index Futures: Large portfolios can be hedged using index futures that track the performance of the overall market. If the market declines, profits from the short position in the futures contract will offset losses in the portfolio. Risk Parity: Allocating assets based on the level of risk rather than the dollar amount invested, balancing risk exposure across asset classes. 2. Hedging Strategies for Credit Risk Credit risk refers to the possibility that a borrower will default on a debt obligation. This is especially important for banks, lenders, and institutions dealing with bonds and loans. Key Hedging Instruments for Credit Risk: Credit Default Swaps (CDS): A financial derivative where the buyer of a CDS pays a premium to the seller in exchange for protection against a default on a loan or bond. Example: A bank holding corporate bonds can buy a CDS to ensure they are compensated if the issuing company defaults. Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs): These instruments pool together various debt instruments and allow risk to be distributed among multiple investors. Credit Insurance: Companies may use insurance to protect against the risk of a customer defaulting on payments. Common Hedging Strategies: Diversification of Loan Portfolio: Spreading out credit exposures across various industries, geographies, and borrower profiles reduces the overall risk of default. Tightening Lending Standards: Limiting exposure to highrisk borrowers by implementing stringent credit assessments. AssetBacked Securities: Banks can sell loans or bonds packaged as assetbacked securities to reduce their exposure to credit risk. 3. Hedging Strategies for Currency Risk Currency risk (or exchange rate risk) arises from fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, which can affect companies involved in international trade or with investments in foreign countries. Key Hedging Instruments for Currency Risk: Forward Contracts: A firm agrees to exchange a specified amount of currency at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date. Example: A U.S. exporter expecting payment in euros might enter into a forward contract to sell euros and lock in a favorable exchange rate. Currency Options: These give the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specific price. Example: A U.S.based company buying goods from Japan might buy a call option on the yen to hedge against the risk of yen appreciation. Currency Swaps: Two parties exchange interest payments and principal in different currencies to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations. Common Hedging Strategies: Natural Hedging: Companies can offset currency risk by balancing foreign revenue with costs in the same currency. For example, if a company generates revenue in euros, it can also incur expenses in euros, reducing exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. Multi-Currency Invoicing: Firms can invoice in their home currency, shifting the currency risk to the buyer. Currency Diversification: Holding a diversified basket of currencies can reduce exposure to large fluctuations in any one currency. Effective hedging strategies are crucial for managing various types of risks in financial markets. Market risk can be managed using instruments like futures and options, while credit risk can be mitigated through diversification and credit derivatives. Currency risk, often faced by multinational firms, can be hedged using forward contracts, options, or swaps. Each strategy helps firms and investors protect their portfolios, ensure financial stability, and reduce the impact of adverse movements in the financial markets. Portfolio Risk Management Techniques: Diversification, Asset Allocation, and Risk Budgeting Managing risk is a fundamental aspect of portfolio management. Investors use various techniques to control and reduce the risks inherent in investing. Three key techniques used in portfolio risk management are diversification, asset allocation, and risk budgeting. Each of these techniques helps in mitigating potential losses while aiming to achieve the desired return. 1. Diversification Diversification is a risk management strategy that involves spreading investments across different assets, sectors, or geographic regions to reduce exposure to any single risk. The idea is that different assets perform differently under various market conditions, so losses in one investment can be offset by gains in others. Key Benefits of Diversification: Reduction of Unsystematic Risk: Unsystematic risk, which is unique to a specific company or industry, can be reduced by holding a variety of investments that respond differently to market conditions. Improved Stability: A diversified portfolio is less volatile, as the negative performance of one asset can be balanced by the positive performance of others. Methods of Diversification: Across Asset Classes: Investing in a mix of asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate. Example: A portfolio with 60% equities, 30% bonds, and 10% commodities is more diversified than one solely consisting of stocks. Within Asset Classes: Diversifying within a single asset class (e.g., holding stocks from different sectors like technology, healthcare, and energy). Geographic Diversification: Investing in assets across various countries or regions to mitigate country-specific risks. Example: Holding U.S. stocks along with emerging market equities can reduce risks related to a downturn in one country's economy. 2. Asset Allocation Asset allocation refers to the process of dividing investments among different asset classes (such as stocks, bonds, and cash) to align with an investor's risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals. Asset allocation plays a crucial role in portfolio risk management by determining the overall risk-return profile of the portfolio. Key Elements of Asset Allocation: Strategic Asset Allocation: A longterm approach that involves setting target allocations for different asset classes based on financial goals and risk tolerance. Example: A young investor with a longterm horizon might allocate 70% to stocks, 20% to bonds, and 10% to cash. Tactical Asset Allocation: A more active approach that involves adjusting the asset mix in response to short-term market conditions. Example: If the investor expects an economic downturn, they might temporarily reduce exposure to equities and increase exposure to bonds. Types of Asset Allocation Models: Conservative: Focuses on preserving capital with a larger allocation to bonds and cash (e.g., 20% stocks, 80% bonds). Balanced: A moderate risk approach with an equal focus on growth and income (e.g., 50% stocks, 50% bonds). Aggressive: Targets higher returns by investing predominantly in equities, accepting higher risk (e.g., 80% stocks, 20% bonds). Example of Asset Allocation: A 40 year old investor with moderate risk tolerance may allocate their portfolio as follows: 50% equities, 40% bonds, and 10% in alternative investments such as real estate or commodities. The equities provide growth potential, while the bonds and alternative assets offer stability and income. 3. Risk Budgeting Risk budgeting is a method of allocating risk across different components of a portfolio, rather than focusing solely on returns. The goal is to optimise the portfolio’s risk-return profile by distributing risk in a way that aligns with the investor’s objectives and risk tolerance. Key Concepts of Risk Budgeting: Risk Contribution: Each asset class or investment in the portfolio contributes a certain amount of risk (measured by metrics such as volatility or Value at Risk). Risk budgeting ensures that no single asset class dominates the overall risk of the portfolio. Example: A portfolio may contain 60% stocks and 40% bonds, but if the stocks are highly volatile, they may contribute 90% of the portfolio's risk. Target Risk: Investors set a maximum acceptable level of risk (e.g., a portfolio volatility of 10%) and allocate investments so that the total risk remains within this target. Techniques in Risk Budgeting: Risk Parity: Allocates risk evenly across asset classes, rather than allocating capital based solely on return expectations. Example: In a risk-parity portfolio, both bonds and stocks might be balanced in such a way that they contribute equally to the overall portfolio risk, even though the dollar investment in bonds may be larger due to their lower volatility. Value at Risk (VaR): This technique measures the potential loss in a portfolio over a specific time period, under normal market conditions, at a given confidence level. The risk budget ensures that the potential loss stays within acceptable limits. Example of Risk Budgeting: An investor targets an overall portfolio risk of 8% volatility. After analyzing the risk contribution of each asset class, they determine that equities, which currently make up 60% of the portfolio, contribute 70% of the risk. To adhere to the risk budget, the investor may reduce their equity exposure and increase their allocation to bonds or other less volatile assets. Diversification, asset allocation, and risk budgeting are complementary techniques used in portfolio risk management. Diversification reduces unsystematic risk by spreading investments across various assets. Asset allocation ensures that investments align with an investor's goals and risk tolerance. Risk budgeting focuses on managing the contribution of risk from each asset class to create a balanced and efficient portfolio. Together, these strategies help investors achieve a balance between risk and return, ensuring longterm portfolio stability. Risk Mitigation Through Insurance, Securitisation, and Other Financial Engineering Techniques Risk mitigation is a core objective in financial management, and various strategies can be employed to reduce or manage risks. Three major approaches are insurance, securitisation, and financial engineering techniques. Each of these methods helps firms and individuals transfer, reduce, or eliminate certain financial risks. 1. Insurance as a Risk Mitigation Tool Insurance is a traditional risk transfer method that protects against financial losses by shifting the risk to an insurance company in exchange for premium payments. It is widely used to mitigate various forms of risk, such as operational, liability, and property risks. Key Aspects of Insurance for Risk Mitigation: Risk Transfer: The insurer takes on the risk in exchange for a premium, thus protecting the insured party from unexpected financial losses. Indemnity: In the event of a loss, the insurance policy compensates the insured based on the terms of the contract. Customisable Coverage: Insurance policies can be tailored to address specific risks, such as property damage, business interruption, liability, or cyber risks. Types of Insurance for Businesses: Property and Casualty Insurance: Covers physical assets like buildings, machinery, and inventory from risks like fire, theft, or natural disasters. Liability Insurance: Protects businesses against legal liabilities arising from accidents, negligence, or professional errors. Business Interruption Insurance: Compensates for lost income if a business has to halt operations due to unforeseen events. Credit Insurance: Shields companies from losses due to the nonpayment of trade receivables. 2. Securitisation as a Risk Mitigation Technique Securitisation is a financial engineering process that involves pooling various financial assets (such as loans, mortgages, or receivables) and converting them into marketable securities. This process allows firms to transfer risk to investors, thereby reducing their exposure. Key Elements of Securitisation: Risk Transfer: By securitising assets, companies can transfer the risk of default or nonpayment to investors who purchase the securities. Liquidity Creation: Securitisation converts illiquid assets (like mortgages or loans) into liquid, tradeable securities, improving cash flow for the originating firm. Diversification of Risk: Pooling assets with different risk profiles reduces the impact of individual defaults, spreading the risk across multiple investors. Common Forms of Securitisation: MortgageBacked Securities (MBS): Pools of mortgages are bundled and sold as securities to investors, transferring the risk of mortgage defaults. Example: A bank that issues home loans can bundle those loans into MBS and sell them to investors, transferring the credit risk of potential defaults. Asset-Backed Securities (ABS): Similar to MBS, but backed by other types of assets like credit card receivables, auto loans, or student loans. Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs): Structured financial products that pool different types of debt, such as loans and bonds, and sell them as securities with varying risk levels. Example: A bank may issue a portfolio of auto loans and then pool these loans into an assetbacked security (ABS). The ABS is sold to investors, who take on the risk of loan defaults. By securitising the loans, the bank reduces its exposure to credit risk and generates immediate cash flow. 3. Financial Engineering Techniques for Risk Mitigation Financial engineering involves the use of complex financial instruments, derivatives, and structured products to manage or mitigate financial risks. These techniques allow firms to hedge against specific risks, optimize capital structure, and improve financial stability. Common Financial Engineering Techniques: Derivatives: Financial instruments like futures, forwards, options, and swaps are used to hedge against price fluctuations, interest rate changes, or currency movements. Example: A company with significant foreign exchange exposure may use currency forwards or options to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations, ensuring predictable cash flows. Options and Futures: Options: Provides the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price, allowing firms to hedge against unfavorable price movements. Example: An airline company can buy options on jet fuel to hedge against rising fuel prices. Futures: Standardized contracts to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a future date, commonly used to hedge commodities or financial assets. Example: A wheat producer may use futures contracts to lock in a favorable price for its crop, hedging against a potential price drop. Swaps: These involve the exchange of cash flows between two parties, often used to manage interest rate risk or currency risk. Interest Rate Swaps: Firms can exchange floatingrate interest payments for fixedrate payments to hedge against rising interest rates. Currency Swaps: Used to hedge exchange rate risk in crossborder transactions by exchanging principal and interest payments in different currencies. Example: A company with a variablerate loan may enter into an interest rate swap to exchange its variable payments for fixedrate payments, locking in stable costs. Structured Products: These are customised financial instruments designed to achieve specific riskreturn objectives. They often combine derivatives with other securities to create tailored risk exposures. Example: A structured note that combines a bond with an embedded option, offering downside protection while allowing for potential upside linked to the performance of an equity index. Credit Derivatives: Tools like credit default swaps (CDS) allow investors to transfer credit risk to other parties. Example: A bondholder worried about a company’s potential default may purchase a CDS, which pays out in case of a default event. Example: A company may issue a bond with an embedded call option, allowing it to repurchase the bond if interest rates decline. This financial engineering tool enables the company to mitigate the risk of rising interest rates, reducing future borrowing costs. Risk mitigation through insurance, securitisation, and financial engineering offers businesses a variety of tools to manage and transfer risks. Insurance allows for the direct transfer of risk to an insurer, while securitisation helps companies offload risk by packaging and selling assets as securities. Financial engineering techniques, including derivatives, swaps, and structured products, provide sophisticated ways to hedge market, interest rate, and currency risks. Each approach helps organizations improve financial stability, enhance liquidity, and manage potential losses in a volatile market environment.

The Revolt of the Northern Earls (1569) Most people in the North remained loyal to the Catholic noble families who controlled the north and their Catholic faith. When Elizabeth came to power, she promoted ‘new men’ (Protestants) from the gentry and the powerful Catholic nobles lost their power and influence. This led them to organise the most serious rebellion of Elizabeth’s reign in 1569. Why did the Northern Earl’s revolt? The Earls had lost their power when Elizabeth became Queen (and wanted it back). They wanted Catholicism restored in England (and felt that ordinary Catholics would support it). Elizabeth was refusing to marry or to name an heir, causing uncertainty about England’s future. Mary Queen of Scots (if freed from prison) could replace Elizabeth and solve all these problems Who were the key players in the Revolt? Earl of Northumberland • A Catholic who had held an important position under Mary I. • He lost a lot of influence under Elizabeth (as she favoured Protestant gentry) • Elizabeth also took the rights to a valuable copper mine found on his lands Earl of Westmorland • From a rich Catholic family in the north Also the Duke of Norfolk’s brother in law Duke of Norfolk • England’s most senior Protestant noble, but he had very close links to old northern Catholic families, & was sympathetic to them & greedy for power. • He hated William Cecil & Robert Dudley, Earl of Leicester (Elizabeth’s favourite) who were Protestant and from the gentry • He planned to marry Mary QS, but later backed down and urged the earls to call off the rebellion. Mary also supported the plan to marry him What role did religion play? (7/10 – but only because it was linked to power) • Most northerners held onto their Catholic beliefs & although Elizabeth didn’t persecute them, they knew that she wanted their religion to gradually die out, so they supported the revolt. • In 1561 Elizabeth hired a strict Protestant as archbishop of Durham to promote Protestantism in the north, but he was unpopular & turned many northerners against the Protestant religion. What role did politics/power play? (9/10 – this was the most important cause of the revolt) • The Northern Earls lost a lot of their power/influence (even jobs/money under Elizabeth) • Northumberland was jealous of new Protestant families being given top jobs in the North • William Cecil & Robert Dudley were not from ancient noble families, but were very close to the Queen, so the northern Earls resented them getting top jobs in her Government • Elizabeth also confiscated large areas of land & the profits from their copper mines • It is possible, that had Elizabeth allowed the Catholic Northern Earls to keep their jobs, money and influence at court, they may have ‘tolerated’ her as a Protestant Queen (greedy/selfish). What role did Mary Queen of Scots and the Succession play? • Elizabeth was refusing to name an heir and it was becoming clear that she would not marry • If Mary Queen of Scots married the Duke of Norfolk, England would have an heir and England would be Catholic again. The country would be stable without people competing for power. • However, some of Elizabeth’s courtiers got worried that it might not work and that it might lead to charges of treason (punishable by death) • So by September 1569, Robert Dudley (Earl of Leicester) decided to tell Elizabeth about the plot. By this time it was much more serious than simply marrying Norfolk to Mary. • Mary QS had secretly asked Spain to send troops to help the rebellion & overthrow Elizabeth Plan for the Revolt of the Northern Earls (1569) • The Earls of Northumberland & Westmorland will raise rebel troops from their lands in the north and take control of Durham. • The rebels will then march south towards London to join with the Duke of Norfolk • 1000s of Spanish troops will land in England to support the rebel forces • The Duke of Norfolk & rebel forces will seize control of Government & overthrow Elizabeth • Mary Queen of Scots is to be freed, ready to marry the Duke of Norfolk Key Events of the Revolt • Once Elizabeth knew of the plot, Norfolk was arrested and sent to the Tower of London • The Northern Earls were worried they would be executed for their involvement and in a desperate attempt to avoid punishment, pushed ahead with the revolt • They raised an army of ordinary Catholics and took control of Durham cathedral • Catholic mass was celebrated across the north for 2 weeks. • They then headed south, to try and free Mary • Mary QSs was moved south to Coventry on the orders of Elizabeth, so she couldn’t escape • The rebellion failed as Spanish troops never arrived • Elizabeth’s friend (Earl of Sussex) had raised an army of 7,000 men to defend her throne. Results: • The rebellion was a serious threat to Elizabeth • She executed 450 rebels in the north • Northumberland was executed in 1572 & his head was put on a spike on the city gate • The Privy Council called for the Duke of Norfolk’s execution too, but Elizabeth released him. • Mary Queen of Scots was kept in prison for the next 14 years. • The failed plot also led the Pope to take action against Elizabeth • In 1570 he excommunicated Elizabeth from the Catholic Church • He also issued a Papal Bull (order) calling on all loyal Catholics to overthrow her hoping it would encourage another rebellion. • In 1571 Elizabeth called parliament to pass an Act making it treason to claim that she was not the rightful Queen and to bring in/print papal bulls in England. The Significance of the Revolt of the Northern Earls • It was the first and most serious rebellion by English Catholics against Elizabeth • Treason laws were made much harsher • It ended the influence of the powerful Catholic Earls in the North • It led to harsher treatment of Catholics, e.g. 1572 Elizabeth sent the Earl of Huntingdon (strict Protestant) to the north to carry out laws against Catholics (and suppress Catholicism). • Although Elizabeth’s brutal revenge on the rebels show how serious a threat it was, most Catholics in the north stayed loyal, but the Pope’s Papal Bull now put their loyalty in doubt There was little support for the revolt among the rest of the Catholic nobility and ordinary people. When faced with a choice between Elizabeth and their religion, most Catholics chose to support the Queen. 1569, was the last time English Catholics tried to remove Elizabeth by force. The future plots against her were always uncovered by Cecil & Walsingham, before they had a chance to get any public support. Despite this, the Northern Revolt & Papal Bull changed Elizabeth’s attitude towards Catholics who were now seen as potential traitors. From 1570, Elizabeth became less tolerant of recusants (people refusing to attend her church) & took increasingly tough measures against Catholics. The Ridolfi, Throckmorton & Babington plots • In the 1870s-80s, there were 3 Catholic plots to assassinate Elizabeth & replace her with Mary. • The plots were supported by France, Spain, the Pope and some Catholic nobles. • They reinforced the form Mary & from Catholics at home and abroad. Also the threat from Spain. The Ridolfi Plot (1571) • Ridolfi was an Italian banker living in England and a spy for the Pope. • He organised a plot to murder Eliz, marry Mary QS to the Duke of Norfolk & make her Queen. • The Pope & King Philip supported the plot & Philip told the Duke of Alba in the Netherlands to prepare 10,000 troops (but to only invade AFTER the English had overthrown Elizabeth). • The plot failed because Sir William Cecil intercepted coded letters & Norfolk was executed. • Mary was kept under closer watch. • Ridolfi was abroad when the plot was discovered and never returned to England. 1574: Catholic Priests and Priest Holes • From 1574 Catholic priests were smuggled into England to keep the religion alive. • They stayed with rich Catholic families, so Catholic families were kept under surveillance. • Catholic homes were raided – to find ‘priest holes’ where Catholic priests were hiding. • Catholic priests who were found could be hung, drawn and quartered (although not all were) • In 1581, Parliament also passed 2 new tougher laws against Catholics: • Recusants would be fined £20 (which would bankrupt most families) • Trying to convert people to Catholicism was now treason (punishable by death) The Throckmorton Plot (1583) • It aimed to assassinate Elizabeth and replace her with Mary. The French Duke of Guise (Mary’s cousin) would invade England with an army, funded by King Philip (Pope also supported it). • An Englishman, Throckmorton carried messages between Mary & Catholic plotters abroad. • Sir Walsingham (Secretary of State) uncovered the plot after his agents found the plans for the plot in Throckmorton’s house. Throckmorton confessed under torture and was executed. Significance: • The plots showed that Mary’s presence in England posed a serious threat • It also showed that France & Spain were a serious threat (& could invade) • Throckmorton’s papers showed a list of Catholic supporters in England, so the threat from English Catholics was also real • 1,000s of Catholics were imprisoned or kept under surveillance/house arrest • In 1585 another Act was passed to make helping Catholic priests punishable by death. • The Bond of Association was signed by the English nobles & gentry & forced them to promise to execute anyone who tried to overthrow the Queen. Weaknesses of the Plots The plots lacked public support & were uncovered by informers & spies before they had the chance to work King Philip was reluctant to destroy his alliance with Elizabeth (France was still a bigger rival) so is support for the plots was half-hearted, he rarely followed through on his promises to help the plotters or send an army The Babington Plot (1586) In 1586, Walsingham used his spy network to PROVE that Mary supported the Babington plot. His evidence persuaded Elizabeth to put Mary on trial & execute her for treason. • This was a plot to murder Elizabeth and put Mary on the throne • France would invade England with 60,000 men and Spain would also send an army • Babington was passing coded letters between Mary & her supporters in England & Europe. • But all of her letters were being intercepted and read by Walsingham. • Walsingham used his spies to follow every stage of the plot & had the letters decoded • One of Mary’s letters approved plans to murder the Queen and free Mary from prison • They also contained the names of 6 Catholics who planned to kill Elizabeth • They were arrested, hung, drawn and quartered for treason. • Mary had been implicated in plots before, but Elizabeth was always reluctant to execute her • But the proof found by Walsingham finally persuaded her to put Mary on trial • In October 1586, Mary was found guilty & was sentenced to death • But Elizabeth still hesitated, and did not sign the death warrant until February 1587. Significance 1) This plot was very significant because by 1585 England was effectively at war with Spain since Elizabeth had sent her army to help the Dutch Protestants fight the Spanish 2) This meant that Elizabeth’ situation was more dangerous than during previous plots. 3) Elizabeth’s government also became more determined to crush Catholicism 4) 1000s of recusants were arrested & 31 priests were executed 5) Mary’s execution removed the Catholic threat at home 6) English Catholics had no one to rally around, & lost hope of overthrowing Elizabeth 7) But Mary’s death increased the threat of a foreign invasion as England was at war with Spain and King Philip had been preparing an attack on England since 1585 8) Mary’s death made Philip even more determined to invade, Mary had left her claim to the English throne to King Philip upon her death Why was Mary Queen of Scots finally executed? 1 • A new Act in 1585 stated that in the event of Elizabeth’s assassination, Mary could be executed as long as she had been proved guilty & Walsingham had provided hard proof. 2 • Another reason was that by 1587, it was clear that Philip was planning to invade England • There were rumours that Spanish ships had landed in Wales & that Mary had escaped. This convinced Elizabeth that Mary had to be executed if she wanted to keep her throne. Walsingham’s Spy Network: • Walsingham (Secretary of State from 1573) had a network of spies all over England & abroad. He had spies in every English town, some were normal people paid to spy on neighbours. • He also had agents and spies in Spain, France, Germany and Italy • He hired mathematicians to crack written codes and people to open/seal letters secretly • He also pressured captured Catholic priests to spy on others for him in return for a pardon. • He used double agents to infiltrate Catholic networks - to help him discover traitors • But he only used torture against Catholic priests caught in England in the most serious cases • But 130 priests and 60 of their supporters were still executed during Elizabeth’s reign. Why did Relations with Spain get worse (1569-1588) • England had tried to stay on good terms with Spain, because Eliz wanted to avoid an expensive war that could lead to her being overthrown (English Catholics could support it) • But by the 1570s, Elizabeth wanted to have an empire of her own. • She also needed to make more money to defend her country and throne (by improving trade) • This religious, political and economic rivalry led to growing tensions between England & Spain Political and Religious Rivalry 1) Land abroad, gave countries wealth/power. By the 1580s, Eliz wanted an empire to rival Spain’s (especially as Spain had supported the Catholic plots against Eliz – even if it was half-hearted) 2) Religion was another cause of conflict. Philip opposed Elizabeth’s religious settlement 1559 3) Luckily for Elizabeth, in the 1550s Spain & France were competing to be the greatest European power and both wanted England as an ally against the other. 4) But from 1567, Spanish ships were sailing to the Netherlands with money for the Alba’s army 5) This alarmed English Protestants and Elizabeth’s Privy Council who put more and more pressure on her to send an army to help the Dutch Protestant rebels (in the Netherlands). Economic (commercial) Rivalry: The New World, privateers and Sir Francis Drake • Under Elizabeth, English merchants wanted to make big profits in the New World (Americas). • However, trading in the New World was difficult because of Spain’s power 1) Spain controlled most of the New World where there were huge profits to be made and anyone who wanted to trade there needed a licence from Spain (which it would not give): 2) But the Americas had valuable crops like tobacco, sugar, and also silver and gold 3) Elizabeth secretly encouraged privateers to trade illegally & raid Spanish ports & ships 4) At first Elizabeth denied responsibility for their actions, which delaye war with Spain Sir Francis Drake: Elizabeth sends Drake to rob Spanish colonies and ships (which infuriates Spain) 1) Spain’s support for the Ridolfi plot (1571) made her more willing to support Drake • In 1572 Eliz hired Drake to sail to the New World & steal £40,000 of Spanish silver • In 1577 she sent Drake back again with a secret mission to rob Spain’s colonies/ships • Drake brought back £400,000 of Spanish treasure & claimed an area of California in Elizabeth’s name (New Albion). He gave a lot of this money to Elizabeth • He boosted England’s finances at a time of growing concern over Spain’s threat • He became famous as the first Englishman to circumnavigate the globe. • Eliz knighted Drake as a reward, which infuriated Philip (as he saw Drake as a pirate) • Drake’s actions & his claim to California made it clear that England did not accept Spain’s domination of the New World. Elizabeth’s Support for the Dutch Rebels led to War with Spain (1585-88) • By the 1580s, tension between England & Spain had reached boiling point • At first, Eliz refused to send her army to help the Dutch rebels, because she wanted to avoid a war with Spain. So she tried to get the Spanish to leave the Netherlands in other INDIRECT ways: 1) By allowing Drake (& other English privateers) to attack and rob Spanish ships and colonies 2) By encouraging others (the French heir/mercenaries) to fight the Spanish in the Netherlands • In the 1570s, Elizabeth promised to marry the heir to the French throne (the Duke of Alencon) so that he would take an army to fight the Spanish in the Netherlands The Spanish Fury (1576) and the Pacification of Ghent (1576) • By 1576, the Spanish Govt in the Netherlands was bankrupt (the war was expensive) • After months without pay, Spain’s soldiers violently robbed Dutch towns in the “Spanish Fury” Spanish troops rebelling and robbing cities in the Netherlands in 1576. This united the Dutch Protestants & Catholics against Spain. They drew up the ‘Pacification of Ghent’ (demanding that): • Spanish troops leave the Netherlands • Spain allows the Dutch to rule themselves • The persecution of Dutch Protestants stops What did Elizabeth do? • Elizabeth sent £100,000 to help the Dutch rebels • In 1577 King Philip’s brother, Don Juan agreed to the rebels demands (but this was a trick) as just 6 months later Philip sent an even bigger army to attack the Dutch. • Elizabeth then hired a mercenary army of 6000 English & Scottish volunteers to help the Dutch. • But her plan backfired because the mercenaries destroyed Dutch Catholic churches, which caused the Catholics to make peace with Spain. • In 1578, her Privy Council urged Eliz to send her official army to help the Dutch, but she refused. The Dutch were disappointed & turned to France for help. The French Duke of Alencon arrived with an army to fight the Spanish, but by 1579 Spain had taken control again. • In 1580 Spain got even stronger after Philip won control of Portugal & its empire. • So Elizabeth gave the Duke of Alencon £70,000 to help him fight the Spanish • In 1582, Alencon took his army the Netherlands but failed to defeat Spain. • Elizabeth’s foreign policy in the Netherlands had failed & she had only managed to annoy Spain 1585: Why did Eliz finally decide to send her army to the Netherlands? (she lost her 2 main allies) • 1584 the Duke of Alencon died (so he could no longer fight the Spanish in the Netherlands) • 1 month later, William of Orange, the leader of the Dutch Protestant rebels was assassinated. • In 1585, Spain signed the Treaty of Joinville with France, agreeing to stamp out Protestantism in France/Europe meaning France & Spain were now allies against Protestantism • Elizabeth now felt she had no choice but to send her official army to the Netherlands • She signed the Treaty of Nonsuch with the Dutch rebels which promised them military help 1585: Robert Dudley’s campaign in the Netherlands was unsuccessful She sent 7,400 man army to the Netherlands led by Dudley. But he accepted the title of ‘Governor General’. Eliz was angry as it suggested that she had deposed King Philip so she told Dudley to resign this position. His army was defeated by the bigger Spanish Army as Eliz had not provided him with enough money to win. In 1587 Dudley resigned and returned to England. At the same time, Eliz had sent Drake to raid Spanish colonies in the New World to disrupt King Philip’s flow of money. Philip was furious and told the Pope he planned to invade England at the end of 1585. Drake singes the King of Spain’s beard 1587 • In 1587 Elizabeth ordered Drake to attack Spain’s most important port Cadiz • He destroyed 30 ships in 3 days – known as the ‘Singeing of the King of Spain’s Beard’ • He also stole lots of wood, meaning the Armada did not have quality barrels for food/water • Drake’s disruption delayed the Armada by a year (& meant that its food rotted in 1588). • This bought England more time to prepare for war. The Spanish Armada (1588) The Plan • By 1588, the Spanish Armada was ready to invade England • It had 130 ships with 8000 sailors & 18,000 soldiers • The Duke of Medina Sidonia would lead the Armada, but he had little experience at sea and didn’t want the job • The Armada would collect Parma’s army from France & sail to England under the protection of the Armada’s warships • Parma would march to London to depose Elizabeth & impose a Catholic government in England. 1) The Armada reached the English Channel The Armada set out in May 1588, but was delayed for a few weeks by bad weather In July the Armada was near England & signal fires were lit to warn Elizabeth English ships set sail to meet the Armada The Armada sailed up the channel in a crescent (half moon) formation, to use the large armed galleons to protect the weaker supply and army ships The English navy carried out a few minor raids, but did not inflict much damage Only 2 Spanish ships were lost (by accident) 2) The English attack the Spanish at Calais (with fire ships) and at Gravelines The Armada sailed up the English channel & anchored at Calais to wait for Parma’s army But Parma’s men didn't reach the coast in time (news had reached them too late) At midnight, the English sent 8 fireships into the Spanish ships causing panic They cut their anchors, broke formation & headed for the open sea (without Parma) The Spanish ships sailed to Gravelines, but bad weather stopped them returning to Calais The English attacked and the battle lasted many hours (5 Spanish ships were sunk) The rest were forced to sail away from France towards Scotland The English ships followed them to make sure they didn’t come back to collect Parma’s army 3) The Armada’s Journey back to Spain around Ireland was a disaster The Spanish called off the attack and returned to Spain around Scotland & Ireland Bad storms sank many ships and wrecked more on the Irish coast Many sailors died from starvation & disease – less than half the men made it back to Spain How did England defeat the Spanish Armada? !) Faster Ships • Years before the battle, England had started building smaller, faster ships (galleons) that could fire canon balls quicker & further than Spanish ships • Spanish ships were huge and slow to change direction. 2) Bad Planning & Communication (Spanish) • Philip’s plan to join with the Duke of Parma’s army in France was risky. • Parma had lots of small ships which took 48 hours to load, man and set sail. • It took too long (a week) for word to reach Parma that Medina was in the English Channel, by which time Medina had set sail to Calais. • Parma was not ready to set sail & the English were already ready to attack (leaving Medina with very little back up when anchored in France). 2) English Tactics were more effective • Spanish ships aimed to come alongside the English ones, jump on board & fight the enemy. But the English ships were faster & kept a safe distance. • They chased the Armada down the Channel, with heavy cannon fire, which forced the Spanish to arrive in France before Parma’s army was ready • As the Armada was waiting, the English sent fireships into the Spanish fleet. • This caused the Armada to panic, cut their anchors & sail away to the north • When the Spanish ships regrouped, the English attacked them in the Battle of Gravelines & the Armada was forced to sail north, chased by faster ships. 5) Bad Weather • Strong winds made it impossible for the Armada to return & pick up Parma’s army and storms wrecked or sunk Spanish ships as they tried to return home along the Scottish-Irish coasts. 2) Spanish Supplies • The Armada was not well supplied with food/weapons. Drake’s attack on Cadiz port in 1587 had destroyed food barrels. Delays in setting sail meant that by the time the English attacked the Armada it had been at sea for 10 weeks and had rotting food. 1000s died from starvation/disease. The consequences of the English victory? • Victory over the Spanish Armada gave Elizabeth a great propaganda victory • A new portrait was made, and a medal was made to commemorate her victory, it said “God blew and they were scattered”. • Elizabeth claimed that God was on the side of Protestantism • This led to a feeling of English pride and encouraged the Dutch rebels to renew their fight against the Spanish • The defeat of the Armada showed the strength of the English navy and gave England the confidence to trade and explore more widely at sea • Although Philip did not give up and continued the war for the rest of Elizabeth’s reign, the defeat had cost Spain dearly, both financially and in terms of its power • The Armada marked the start of a long decline in Spain’s power and fortunes. • English ships were sent on voyages of discovery and set up valuable new trade routes • By the end of Elizabeth’s reign, the navy was also trying to set up a new colony in Virginia • The English victory boosted Elizabeth’s popularity & strengthened the Protestant cause

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