INCREDIBLE 5-1 7/7A

What Is Rhythm in Music? Rhythm is the pattern of sound, silence, and emphasis in a song. In music theory, rhythm refers to the recurrence of notes and rests (silences) in time. When a series of notes and rests repeats, it forms a rhythmic pattern. In addition to indicating when notes are played, musical rhythm also stipulates how long they are played and with what intensity. This creates different note durations and different types of accents.Why Is Rhythm Important in Music? Rhythm functions as the propulsive engine of a piece of music, and it gives a composition structure. Most musical ensembles contain a rhythm section responsible for providing the rhythmic backbone for the entire group. Drums, percussion, bass, guitar, piano, and synthesizer may all be considered rhythm instruments, depending on the context. However, all members of a music group bear responsibility for their own rhythmic performances and play the musical beats and rhythmic patterns indicated by the piece's composer.7 Elements of Rhythm in Music Several core elements comprise the fundamentals of musical rhythm. 1. Time signature: A musical time signature indicates the number of beats per measure. It also indicates how long these beats last. In a time signature with a 4 on the bottom (such as 2/4, 3/4, 4/4, 5/4, etc.), a beat corresponds with a quarter note. So in a 4/4 time (also known as "common time"), each beat is the length of a quarter note, and every four beats form a full measure. In 5/4 time, every five beats form a full measure. In a time signature with an 8 on the bottom (such as 3/8, 6/8, or 9/8), a beat corresponds with an eighth note. 2. Meter: Standard Western music theory divides time signatures into three types of musical meter: duple meter (where beats appear in groups of two), triple meter (where beats appear in groups of three), and quadruple meter (where beats appear in groups of four). Meter is not tied to note values; for instance, a triple meter could involve three half notes, three quarter notes, three eighth notes, three sixteenth notes, or three notes of any duration. Musicians and composers regularly mix duple and triple meter in their work; Igor Stravinsky's "The Rite of Spring" is a textbook example of such a technique. 3. Tempo: Tempo is the speed at which a piece of music is played. There are three primary ways that tempo is communicated to players: beats per minute, Italian terminology, and modern language. Beats per minute (or BPM) indicates the number of beats in one minute. Certain Italian words like largo, andante, allegro, and presto convey tempo change by describing the speed of the music. Finally, some composers indicate tempo with casual English words such as “fast,” “slow,” “lazy,” “relaxed,” and “moderate.” 4. Strong beats and weak beats: Rhythm combines strong beats and weak beats. Strong beats include the first beat of each measure (the downbeat), as well as other heavily accented beats. Both popular music and classical music combine strong beats and weak beats to create memorable rhythmic patterns. 5. Syncopation: Syncopated rhythms are those that do not align with the downbeats of individual measures. A syncopated beat will put its emphasis on traditional weak beats, such as the second eighth note in a measure of 4/4. Complex rhythms tend to include syncopation. While these rhythms may be more difficult for a beginning musician to pick up, they tend to sound more striking than non-syncopated rhythmic patterns. 6. Accents: Accents refer to special emphases on certain beats. To understand accents, think of a piece of poetry. A poetic meter, such as iambic pentameter, may dictate a specific mixture of stressed syllables and unstressed syllables. Musical accents are no different. Different rhythms may share a time signature and tempo, but they stand out from one another by accenting different notes and beats. 7. Polyrhythms: To achieve a particularly ambitious sense of rhythm, an ensemble may employ polyrhythm, which layers one type of rhythm on top of another. For instance, a salsa percussion ensemble may feature congas and bongos playing 4/4 time, while the timbales concurrently play a pattern in 3/8. This creates a dense rhythmic stew and, when properly executed, it can yield incredibly danceable rhythm patterns. Polyrhythms originated in African drumming, and they’ve spread to all sorts of genres worldwide, from Afro-Caribbean to Indian to progressive rock, jazz, and contemporary classical.

Chapter 8: The Worlds of North and South Geography Geography refers to the seasons, climate, soil, and physical features of a region (mountains, rivers, etc.) The differences in geography b/t the N and S is one of the major reasons slavery b/c entrenched in the S while it died out in the N. Geography of the North The N has diverse geography and experiences four distinct seasons including long, harsh winters. The Great Plains region has some of the best farmland in the country. New England has rocky, hilly wilderness, not well suited for farming. It has hundreds of bays and harbors along its coastline. States farther S had rich soil and coastal access through rivers. The N also experienced mass deforestation b/c of the need for lumber and to make room for farms. Geography of the South Climate: the S had mild winters, and a long, hot, humid growing season. It has fertile lowlands, marshes and swamps. It's ideal for growing tobacco, sugar, rice, indigo, and cotton (cash crops). B/c of the geography of the S, their whole way of life was based on agriculture and geography is one of the major reasons why slavery took off in the S. Economies Economy basically refers to the way people make and spend money. The Northern economy was far more diversified than the Southern. Economy of the North The North experienced the Industrial Revolution—the shift from handmade goods to machine-made goods. This resulted in new jobs, increased production, and improved efficiency in agriculture. IOW, you can make things faster, easier, and cheaper. More ppl get more stuff. Factories were almost always located next to rivers. The Reaper The Indust. Rev. changed northern agriculture with Cyrus McCormick’s reaper. It could cut 28xs more grain than a single man. The Sewing Machine Elias Howe's sewing machine; At 250 stitches a minute, Howe's lockstitch mechanism out-stitched the output of five hand seamstresses with a reputation for speed, completing in one hour what took the sewers 14.5 hours. The Textile Mill Francis Cabot Lowell's textile mill: essentially the first factory in the US, Lowell set the model for all future factories. Interchangeable Parts Eli Whitney's interchangeable parts; considered the "dawning of a new age" of machinery. This concept was applied to pretty much all manufacturing. Economy of the South The South's economy was based on AGRICULTURE. Most southerners were agrarians. Most had small farms, some owned plantations. Slavery beginning to decline in late 1700s; prices went down (tobacco, indigo) and cotton was difficult. King Cotton Cotton was South’s most important crop. Earned more money than all other exports combined. The S would go on to supply 75% of the world's cotton demand. Cotton Gin Eli Whitney invented the cotton gin in 1794 and forever changed the US. The gin made cotton incredibly profitable. We start to see the effects of the cotton gin around 1820. Slavery and Cotton Southerners put all their money into slaves and land, and almost none into building factories. With the spread of cotton, demand for slaves increased. 1790 to 1850, number of slaves rose 600%. Transportation Again, the N was far more inventive in their approach to transportation than the S. Transportation in the North National Road National Road stretched from the East (the Potomac), over the Appalachians, to the West (Illinois), over 620 miles. Steamboat In 1807, Robert Fulton invented the steamboat. It traveled 150 miles UP the Hudson River at a speed of 5 mph. Erie Canal Built b/t 1817 and 1825, the canal spanned 363 miles and connected Lake Erie to the Hudson River. This connected farms in the W to cities in the E and the Atlantic Ocean. Clipper Ship Clippers were narrow w massive sails that were built for speed. They cut the time it took to cross the Atlantic in half. Locomotive The fastest and cheapest way to move goods was by steam-powered trains. The first RR was the B&O which was built in 1827. Transportation in the South Most people and goods in the South traveled by rivers in steamboats. The South had trains, but less than half the amount of railroad track than the North had. Society (The People) The people who made up the N and S could not have been more different. The S was primarily agrarian while the N was b/c urbanized. The S was holding on to the past, while the N was embracing change. Society in the South Society was organized into 3 distinct classes of people: rich plantation owners at the top; then white farmers and workers; slaves on the bottom. This rigid social class system was the result of a slave-based agricultural system. Power Structure Only 1 in 4 whites owned a slave. Plantation owners, who owned more than 20 slaves, dominated politics and the economy. Society in the North 7 of 10 Northerners still lived on farms by the 1840s (6 of 10 by 1860), but urbanization was growing fast in the N. The N relied on wage labor as opposed to slave labor, so most blacks in the N were free. N blacks were not treated equally and the N was about as racist as the S. Immigration Compared to the S, the N population was exploding, in large part bc of immigration. Between 1845 and 1860, 4 million immigrants came to the North. Most were German and Irish. Irish--a potato famine; German--a failed revolution. Ethnic neighborhoods developed as a result.

THE SOAR SYSTEM A solar system is a group of planets and other celestial bodies that revolve around a star. A solar nebula- a vast cloud of gas and dust, mostly hydrogen and helium. How the Solar System Form • COLLAPSE AND SPINNING DISK FORMATION - Gravity pulls material inward. The cloud flattens into a spinning disk due to conservation of angular momentum. • PROTOSTAR FORMATION- (BIRTH OF THE SUN). Material collects at the center, and begun to heat up. When it reaches to 10 million KELVIN, nuclear fusion begins. thus, SUN is born. • PLANETESIMALS AND PROTOPLANETS. Dust and gas in the disk stick together via static and gravitational forces. These form planetesimals, which grow into protoplanets collision and accretion. • PLANET FORMATION. Inner disk: too hot for gas rocky planets form Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars. • PLANET FORMATION. Outer disk: gas and ice giants. Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune • LEFTOVER DEBRIS. Remaining materials forms moon, asteroids, comets and dwarf planets. DIFFERENT HYPOTHESIS IN THE FORMATION OF SOLAR SYSTEM. 1. NEBULAR HYPOTHESIS- The Solar system formed from a rotating cloud of Gas and Dust (solar nebula). As it rotates conservation of angular momentum caused the cloud to flatten into a disk. the Sun formed at the center (DISK) while planets formed from the surrounding materials through acceleration. thus, it explains the coplanar and nearly circular orbit of the planets all planets orbits around the sun on the same flat, disk shaped plane. Proposed by Immanuel Kant in 1755 and Modified by Pierre Simon Laplace in 1756. PROTOPLANET HYPOTHESIS. The Solar system formed from a rotating cloud of Gas and Dust (solar nebula). As it rotates conservation of angular momentum caused the cloud to flatten into a disk. 2. Protoplanet hypothesis. Builds on the nebular model but focuses more on the role of planetesimals which then form into full planets. PROCESS: - Small solid particles stick together through collisions. As collisions takes place, it grows into kilometer-sized planetesimals. Gravitational interactions lead to the formation of planets. Lead to formation of steroids belts and varying planet sizes 3. Encounter hypothesis. States that the sun encountered a rogue star. The encounter led to the removal of hot gas from both stars due to their gravitational interaction. The hot gas then accumulated and formed the planets. The materials from the less dense rogue star formed the other planets, while that from the sun formed the inner planets. 4. TIDAL HYPOTHESIS. (also called the Tidal Theory) is an early scientific idea about how the solar system might have formed. Proposed by James Jeans and Harold Jeffreys. A massive star passed very close to the early Sun. The hot gas then accumulated and formed the planets. The materials from the less dense rogue star formed the other planets, while that from the sun formed the inner planets. Streams of hot gas were drawn out from the Sun in elongated shape. These streams eventually condensed and cooled, forming planets, moons, and other bodies in the solar system. 5. Not accepted theory. Later studies showed the streams of hot gas would disperse too quickly into space instead of condensing into planets. The theory also couldn’t explain the specific orbital patterns and compositions we see today. Modern science favors the Nebular Hypothesis, which explains solar system formation through the collapse of a rotating gas cloud. Earth as the only habitable planet 1. Right Distance from the Sun (The Goldilocks Zone). Not too hot, not too cold — just right for liquid water to exist. 2. Atmosphere with Oxygen. Earth has a mix of gases, especially oxygen, which most living things need to survive. 3. Liquid Water. Earth has oceans, rivers, and rain — water is essential for all life. 4. Magnetic Field. Earth’s magnetic field protects us from harmful solar radiation. 5. Stable Climate. The atmosphere and natural cycles keep temperatures and weather mostly stable over time. 6. Rich Resources. Earth has soil for growing food, minerals, and energy sources that support life and technology. Solar explorations 1. AUGUST 6, 2014. First space craft to orbit a comet (ROSETTA PROBE). Captures the comet photograph. -Comets have coma and tail as it approaches to the sun. 2. JULY 14, 2015. NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft made history by becoming the first spacecraft to fly by Pluto, giving us our first close-up look at the dwarf planet. First time visiting Pluto. Before this, Pluto was just a blurry dot in telescope images. Revealed a surprising world New Horizons showed mountains of ice, smooth plains, and a heart-shaped region called Tombaugh Regio. Changed what we knew. Scientists thought Pluto would be dull and frozen — instead, it turned out to be geologically active and incredibly complex. 3. SEPTEMBER 8, 2016. NASA launched OSIRIS-REx, the first U.S. mission to collect a sample from an asteroid and return it to Earth. Changed what we knew. Scientists thought Pluto would be dull and frozen — instead, it turned out to be geologically active and incredibly complex. OSIRIS-REx stands for: Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security–Regolith Explorer It was sent to study the asteroid Bennu, a near-Earth asteroid about 500 meters wide. Mission Goals: Collect a sample of surface material from Bennu Study the asteroid’s omposition, structure, and history. Mission Goals: Help scientists understand the origins of the solar system. Learn more about asteroids that could impact Earth. 4. August 12, 2018: Launch of NASA’s Parker Solar Probe, the first spacecraft to "touch" the Sun by flying through its outer atmosphere, called the corona. Mission Goal: To study the Sun up close and help scientists understand: How the solar wind (a stream of charged particles) is formed. Why the Sun’s corona is hotter than its surface. What causes solar storms that can affect Earth’s satellites and power grids. 5. November 26, 2018: NASA’s Insight Lander Touches Down on Mars. Its mission was focused on studying the interior of the Red Planet (crust, mantle, and core of the planet). Why the Sun’s corona is hotter than its surface. What causes solar storms that can affect Earth’s satellites and power grids 6. November 26, 2018: NASA’s Insight Lander Touches Down on Mars. Its mission was focused on studying the interior of the Red Planet (crust, mantle, and core of the planet) 7. JULY 30, 2020 PERSEVERANCE PROBE. Perseverance rover as part of the Mars 2020 mission aboard an Atlas V-541 rocket This marked a major step in Mars exploration. 8. DECEMBER 25, 2021-JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE. Investigate exoplanets’ atmospheres for signs of habitability. Observe the first galaxies formed after the Big Bang. Study the formation of stars and planetary systems. Look deeper into the infrared universe than ever before. RESULTS OF EXPLORATION • Evidence of Ancient Life-friendly Environment. • Sedimentary rocks formed in water-rich environments. • Signs of clay and carbonate minerals, which can preserve biosignatures (traces of past life). • Evidence of Ancient Life-friendly Environment. • Sedimentary rocks formed in water-rich environments. • Signs of clay and carbonate minerals, which can preserve biosignatures (traces of past life). • Evidence of Ancient Life-friendly Environment. • Sedimentary rocks formed in water-rich environments. • Signs of clay and carbonate minerals, which can preserve biosignatures (traces of past life).

Make a multiple choice quiz for my year 8 science students based on the science in this transcript from a video: 3°C 0:04 It can be the difference between snow and sleet 0:08 Wearing a jacket or not 0:11 In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant 0:15 But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic 0:20 Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 0:25 3°C of warming is really disastrous 0:28 The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there 0:32 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C 0:40 This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with 0:46 Children born today... 0:47 ...are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents 0:52 If global temperatures do rise by 3°C... 0:55 ...what would their world look like? Climate change is already having devastating effects 1:03 Rising sea levels 1:05 Desertification 1:07 Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world 1:11 While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction... 1:14 ...this film will show the scenario we all face... 1:17 ...unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels 1:30 In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear 1:35 The slums of Bangladesh’s capital are filling up with climate migrants 1:41 Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh 1:46 There, like many other parts of the country... 1:49 ...rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers... 1:53 ...are washing away people’s homes 1:56 Many, like her, have lost everything 2:00 Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land 2:03 There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house 2:08 There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home 2:12 We used to eat the fruit from our own trees 2:18 I can’t eat them now because they don't exist anymore 2:21 Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka 2:26 Life was much better back home 2:29 It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable 2:33 We didn’t have the time to save anything at all 2:38 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minara’s life 2:45 It’s one of the reasons why so many migrants like her... 2:47 ...are moving to the city each year... 2:50 ...nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate 2:53 And climate models show there could be much worse to come How climate modelling works 3:02 Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj... 3:04 ...has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios... 3:08 ...for the United Nations 3:10 The models we use to carry out this exercise... 3:13 ...really represent the state of the art... 3:15 ...of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading 3:19 Joeri’s projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world 3:26 Here this is the 3°C level... 3:28 ...and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies... 3:32 ...we would hit 3°C by the end of the century 3:36 This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at 3:40 Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept 3:44 The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept... 3:47 ...and net-zero targets are met 3:50 Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century... 3:54 ...there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead 3:59 One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance... 4:03 ...that the plane will crash Nowhere is safe from global warming 4:07 A rise of 3°C would affect everyone 4:10 Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldn’t be immune to the consequences 4:15 European capitals like Paris and Berlin... 4:18 ...would bake under more extreme heatwaves 4:22 Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate 4:27 In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events 4:33 Cities are hotter than the places around them... 4:36 ...they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding 4:39 And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you can’t in the countryside 4:46 And because of their denser populations... 4:49 ...disasters in a city affect far more people 4:52 Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming 4:56 But they have the means to adapt 4:59 Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places 5:03 They have a lot of amenities 5:05 A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world... 5:08 …wouldn’t necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world 5:12 But a city that hasn’t prepared for these sort of eventualities... 5:16 ...that might be a really nasty place The impact of prolonged droughts 5:20 So far, many developed cities have got off lightly... 5:24 ...but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately 5:29 Smallholders—small-scale farmers—are particularly vulnerable to climate change 5:35 And there are over 600 million around the world 5:38 Smallholders with farms under two hectares... 5:40 ...produce around a third of the global food supply 5:46 Central America’s “Dry Corridor”... 5:48 ...supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms 5:53 Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea... 5:56 ...the area is prone to droughts 6:08 Israel Ramírez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala 6:12 Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe 6:18 This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver 6:23 He depends on his crops of corn and beans 6:26 But they’re getting harder to grow 6:30 The surrounding mountains... 6:32 ...used to provide us with native food... 6:38 ...and now that isn’t an option anymore... 6:41 ...due to climate change and its effects 6:46 Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty 6:52 The impact of all of this for us... 6:59 ...malnutrition among children 7:03 We’ve lost a few 7:07 For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before 7:16 The plant dries up and can’t provide us... 7:19 ...with the necessary food provision 7:24 Severe droughts in Central America... 7:26 ...are now four times more likely than they were last century 7:30 Many families from here have gone to the States 7:37 The economic despair and debts... 7:44 ...have pushed many people from this community to do this journey 7:53 Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 7:59 Not all of this has been due to climate change 8:02 But longer droughts would force even more to move 8:05 In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region... 8:09 ...could drop by up to 14% 8:12 At 3°C, over a quarter of the world’s population... 8:16 ...could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year 8:19 Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding 8:24 But for some, too much water will be the problem 8:29 10% of the world’s population lives on a coastline... 8:32 ...that’s less than 10 metres above sea level 8:35 For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster 8:40 By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels 8:46 Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable... 8:49 ...with up to up to a third of the population displaced 8:54 And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives 9:04 You can see the graveyard there, it’s all under water now... 9:08 ...due to this rising sea level and climate change 9:15 The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea 9:19 Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear 9:24 Relatives’ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water 9:29 We have been asked by the government to relocate... 9:32 ...but no one wants to relocate... 9:34 ...because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea 9:39 This is the place we’ve been brought up in 9:41 ...it’s not easy to leave 9:44 Past attempts to build a seawall haven’t worked 9:48 But Barney sees building a new one as the village’s only hope 9:52 If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left 9:56 But if we don’t have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come... 10:01 ...maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded 10:05 Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods 10:11 And many more countries could suffer 10:14 The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries... 10:17 ...that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world 10:21 To escape, many will move… 10:24 …often, to urban areas Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures 10:27 Half the world’s population already lives in cities... 10:31 ...almost a third in slums 10:36 For them, a 3°C world could be deadly 10:40 Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change 10:44 But life could get even worse for her 10:47 I’m struggling a lot nowadays 10:49 The heat during the day is unbearable 10:52 Even late at night it doesn’t cool down 10:57 The heat is getting more intense every day 10:59 I mean, it’s going to get much worse 11:03 I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? 11:08 Dhaka is getting hotter 11:11 In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature... 11:13 ...has crept up by nearly half a degree 11:17 Days that approach 40°C are now being reported 11:20 And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise 11:26 A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity 11:30 Humans cool themselves by sweating… 11:32 But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%... 11:36 ...sweat doesn’t evaporate well 11:38 So people can’t cool down… 11:41 ...even if given unlimited shade and water 11:45 At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body can’t lose heat... 11:49 ...and so it gets hotter and hotter... 11:51 ...and the body is designed to work at a given temperature 11:53 And if it gets too hot inside, you will die 11:58 The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C... 12:02 ...around skin temperature 12:04 Dhaka will have a much higher chance... 12:05 ...of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures... 12:07 ...if global warming reaches 3°C 12:12 You can’t really adapt to that 12:14 You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you can’t work... 12:20 ...can’t do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year... 12:25 ...then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy 12:33 Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates... 12:37 ...have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures 12:40 More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf... 12:43 ...as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States... 12:47 ...could all get to this threshold by the end of the century 12:50 Climate modelling might show us the weather Increased migration and conflict 12:52 But it doesn’t show us its other effects on society 12:56 Established migration patterns could change 12:59 Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders 13:03 Within countries, more people will move to cities 13:07 In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year... 13:10 ...could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change 13:15 When people are displaced by climate... 13:18 …they may well go to cities... 13:19 ...because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already 13:25 A lot of people who can get to the developed world... 13:28 ...not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go 13:35 As migration around the world increases... 13:38 ...there could be more competition for fewer resources 13:42 Water—already a highly contested resource—will be a focal point 13:47 Turkey’s new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq 13:53 China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan 13:57 The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy 14:03 How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions... 14:08 ...in a 3°C world... 14:09 ...is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out 14:14 I think you’d have to be incredibly sanguine... 14:16 ...not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about... 14:19 ...in a 3°C world wouldn’t lead some places... 14:22 ...to the brink of societal collapse 14:25 Those lucky enough to escape unrest... Adaptation and mitigation are crucial 14:28 ...would still have to adapt to a radically different world 14:32 People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones... 14:37 ...is air conditioning 14:39 But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level... 14:42 ...I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture 14:47 There are physical things you can do, like seawalls 14:52 The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering... 14:57 ...doesn’t mean that it will eliminate suffering 15:00 Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet 15:06 Adaptation will only get the world so far 15:09 The best way to deal with a 3°C world... 15:12 ...is not to go to a 3°C world 15:14 And that’s why increasing efforts on mitigation are important 15:17 It’s why working towards negative emissions... 15:20 ...that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important 15:25 Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble 15:33 The scale of change needed... 15:35 ...and the slow progress of governments so far... 15:38 ...means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done 15:44 Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions... 15:48 ...are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 15:54 The need to act has never been clearer 15:57 There’s still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction... 16:02 ...rather than becoming fact

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