Knowing our numbers

Create MCQs from this text "For as long as we can remember, innovation has been a top priority—and a top frustration—for leaders. In a recent McKinsey poll, 84% of global executives reported that innovation was extremely important to their growth strategies, but a staggering 94% were dissatisfied with their organizations’ innovation performance. Most people would agree that the vast majority of innovations fall far short of ambitions. On paper, this makes no sense. Never have businesses known more about their customers. Thanks to the big data revolution, companies now can collect an enormous variety and volume of customer information, at unprecedented speed, and perform sophisticated analyses of it. Many firms have established structured, disciplined innovation processes and brought in highly skilled talent to run them. Most firms carefully calculate and mitigate innovations’ risks. From the outside, it looks as if companies have mastered a precise, scientific process. But for most of them, innovation is still painfully hit-or-miss. What has gone so wrong? The fundamental problem is, most of the masses of customer data companies create is structured to show correlations: This customer looks like that one, or 68% of customers say they prefer version A to version B. While it’s exciting to find patterns in the numbers, they don’t mean that one thing actually caused another. And though it’s no surprise that correlation isn’t causality, we suspect that most managers have grown comfortable basing decisions on correlations. Why is this misguided? Consider the case of one of this article’s coauthors, Clayton Christensen. He’s 64 years old. He’s six feet eight inches tall. His shoe size is 16. He and his wife have sent all their children off to college. He drives a Honda minivan to work. He has a lot of characteristics, but none of them has caused him to go out and buy the New York Times. His reasons for buying the paper are much more specific. He might buy it because he needs something to read on a plane or because he’s a basketball fan and it’s March Madness time. Marketers who collect demographic or psychographic information about him—and look for correlations with other buyer segments—are not going to capture those reasons. After decades of watching great companies fail, we’ve come to the conclusion that the focus on correlation—and on knowing more and more about customers—is taking firms in the wrong direction. What they really need to home in on is the progress that the customer is trying to make in a given circumstance—what the customer hopes to accomplish. This is what we’ve come to call the job to be done. We all have many jobs to be done in our lives. Some are little (pass the time while waiting in line); some are big (find a more fulfilling career). Some surface unpredictably (dress for an out-of-town business meeting after the airline lost my suitcase); some regularly (pack a healthful lunch for my daughter to take to school). When we buy a product, we essentially “hire” it to help us do a job. If it does the job well, the next time we’re confronted with the same job, we tend to hire that product again. And if it does a crummy job, we “fire” it and look for an alternative. (We’re using the word “product” here as shorthand for any solution that companies can sell; of course, the full set of “candidates” we consider hiring can often go well beyond just offerings from companies.)"

“There’s No Such Thing as Sound Science” by By Christie Aschwanden was a lead science writer for FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight, Science, Dec. 6, 2017 Science is being turned against itself. For decades, its twin ideals of transparency and rigor have been weaponized by those who disagree with results produced by the scientific method. Under the Trump administration, that fight has ramped up again. In a move ostensibly meant to reduce conflicts of interest, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt has removed a number of scientists from advisory panels and replaced some of them with representatives from industries that the agency regulates. Like many in the Trump administration, Pruitt has also cast doubt on the reliability of climate science. For instance, in an interview with CNBC, Pruitt said that “measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do.” Similarly, Trump’s pick to head NASA, an agency that oversees a large portion the nation’s climate research, has insisted that research into human influence on climate lacks certainty, and he falsely claimed that “global temperatures stopped rising 10 years ago.” Kathleen Hartnett White, Trump’s nominee to head the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said in a Senate hearing last month that she thinks we “need to have more precise explanations of the human role and the natural role” in climate change. The same entreaties crop up again and again: We need to root out conflicts. We need more precise evidence. What makes these arguments so powerful is that they sound quite similar to the points raised by proponents of a very different call for change that’s coming from within science. This other movement strives to produce more robust, reproducible findings. Despite having dissimilar goals, the two forces espouse principles that look surprisingly alike: Science needs to be transparent. Results and methods should be openly shared so that outside researchers can independently reproduce and validate them. The methods used to collect and analyze data should be rigorous and clear, and conclusions must be supported by evidence. These are the arguments underlying an “open science” reform movement that was created, in part, as a response to a “reproducibility crisis” that has struck some fields of science.1 But they’re also used as talking points by politicians who are working to make it more difficult for the EPA and other federal agencies to use science in their regulatory decision-making, under the guise of basing policy on “sound science.” Science’s virtues are being wielded against it. What distinguishes the two calls for transparency is intent: Whereas the “open science” movement aims to make science more reliable, reproducible and robust, proponents of “sound science” have historically worked to amplify uncertainty, create doubt and undermine scientific discoveries that threaten their interests. “Our criticisms are founded in a confidence in science,” said Steven Goodman, co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford and a proponent of open science. “That’s a fundamental difference — we’re critiquing science to make it better. Others are critiquing it to devalue the approach itself.” Calls to base public policy on “sound science” seem unassailable if you don’t know the term’s history. The phrase was adopted by the tobacco industry in the 1990s to counteract mounting evidence linking secondhand smoke to cancer. A 1992 Environmental Protection Agency report identified secondhand smoke as a human carcinogen, and Philip Morris responded by launching an initiative to promote what it called “sound science.” In an internal memo, Philip Morris vice president of corporate affairs Ellen Merlo wrote that the program was designed to “discredit the EPA report,” “prevent states and cities, as well as businesses from passing smoking bans” and “proactively” pass legislation to help their cause. The sound science tactic exploits a fundamental feature of the scientific process: Science does not produce absolute certainty. Contrary to how it’s sometimes represented to the public, science is not a magic wand that turns everything it touches to truth. Instead, it’s a process of uncertainty reduction, much like a game of 20 Questions. Any given study can rarely answer more than one question at a time, and each study usually raises a bunch of new questions in the process of answering old ones. “Science is a process rather than an answer,” said psychologist Alison Ledgerwood of the University of California, Davis. Every answer is provisional and subject to change in the face of new evidence. It’s not entirely correct to say that “this study proves this fact,” Ledgerwood said. “We should be talking instead about how science increases or decreases our confidence in something.” The tobacco industry’s brilliant tactic was to turn this baked-in uncertainty against the scientific enterprise itself. While insisting that they merely wanted to ensure that public policy was based on sound science, tobacco companies defined the term in a way that ensured that no science could ever be sound enough. The only sound science was certain science, which is an impossible standard to achieve. “Doubt is our product,” wrote one employee of the Brown & Williamson tobacco company in a 1969 internal memo. The note went on to say that doubt “is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’” and “establishing a controversy.” These strategies for undermining inconvenient science were so effective that they’ve served as a sort of playbook for industry interests ever since, said Stanford University science historian Robert Proctor. The sound science push is no longer just Philip Morris sowing doubt about the links between cigarettes and cancer. It’s also a 1998 action plan by the American Petroleum Institute, Chevron and Exxon Mobil to “install uncertainty” about the link between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. It’s industry-funded groups’ late-1990s effort to question the science the EPA was using to set fine-particle-pollution air-quality standards that the industry didn’t want. And then there was the more recent effort by Dow Chemical to insist on more scientific certainty before banning a pesticide that the EPA’s scientists had deemed risky to children. Now comes a move by the Trump administration’s EPA to repeal a 2015 rule on wetlands protection by disregarding particular studies. (To name just a few examples.) Doubt merchants aren’t pushing for knowledge, they’re practicing what Proctor has dubbed “agnogenesis” — the intentional manufacture of ignorance. This ignorance isn’t simply the absence of knowing something; it’s a lack of comprehension deliberately created by agents who don’t want you to know, Proctor said.2 In the hands of doubt-makers, transparency becomes a rhetorical move. “It’s really difficult as a scientist or policy maker to make a stand against transparency and openness, because well, who would be against it?” said Karen Levy, researcher on information science at Cornell University. But at the same time, “you can couch everything in the language of transparency and it becomes a powerful weapon.” For instance, when the EPA was preparing to set new limits on particulate pollution in the 1990s, industry groups pushed back against the research and demanded access to primary data (including records that researchers had promised participants would remain confidential) and a reanalysis of the evidence. Their calls succeeded and a new analysis was performed. The reanalysis essentially confirmed the original conclusions, but the process of conducting it delayed the implementation of regulations and cost researchers time and money. Delay is a time-tested strategy. “Gridlock is the greatest friend a global warming skeptic has,” said Marc Morano, a prominent critic of global warming research and the executive director of ClimateDepot.com, in the documentary “Merchants of Doubt” (based on the book by the same name). Morano’s site is a project of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, which has received funding from the oil and gas industry. “We’re the negative force. We’re just trying to stop stuff.” Some of these ploys are getting a fresh boost from Congress. The Data Quality Act (also known as the Information Quality Act) was reportedly written by an industry lobbyist and quietly passed as part of an appropriations bill in 2000. The rule mandates that federal agencies ensure the “quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of information” that they disseminate, though it does little to define what these terms mean. The law also provides a mechanism for citizens and groups to challenge information that they deem inaccurate, including science that they disagree with. “It was passed in this very quiet way with no explicit debate about it — that should tell you a lot about the real goals,” Levy said. But what’s most telling about the Data Quality Act is how it’s been used, Levy said. A 2004 Washington Post analysis found that in the 20 months following its implementation, the act was repeatedly used by industry groups to push back against proposed regulations and bog down the decision-making process. Instead of deploying transparency as a fundamental principle that applies to all science, these interests have used transparency as a weapon to attack very particular findings that they would like to eradicate. Now Congress is considering another way to legislate how science is used. The Honest Act, a bill sponsored by Rep. Lamar Smith of Texas,3 is another example of what Levy calls a “Trojan horse” law that uses the language of transparency as a cover to achieve other political goals. Smith’s legislation would severely limit the kind of evidence the EPA could use for decision-making. Only studies whose raw data and computer codes were publicly available would be allowed for consideration. That might sound perfectly reasonable, and in many cases it is, Goodman said. But sometimes there are good reasons why researchers can’t conform to these rules, like when the data contains confidential or sensitive medical information.4 Critics, which include more than a dozen scientific organizations, argue that, in practice, the rules would prevent many studies from being considered in EPA reviews.5 It might seem like an easy task to sort good science from bad, but in reality it’s not so simple. “There’s a misplaced idea that we can definitively distinguish the good from the not-good science, but it’s all a matter of degree,” said Brian Nosek, executive director of the Center for Open Science. “There is no perfect study.” Requiring regulators to wait until they have (nonexistent) perfect evidence is essentially “a way of saying, ‘We don’t want to use evidence for our decision-making,’” Nosek said. Most scientific controversies aren’t about science at all, and once the sides are drawn, more data is unlikely to bring opponents into agreement. Michael Carolan, who researches the sociology of technology and scientific knowledge at Colorado State University, wrote in a 2008 paper about why objective knowledge is not enough to resolve environmental controversies. “While these controversies may appear on the surface to rest on disputed questions of fact, beneath often reside differing positions of value; values that can give shape to differing understandings of what ‘the facts’ are.” What’s needed in these cases isn’t more or better science, but mechanisms to bring those hidden values to the forefront of the discussion so that they can be debated transparently. “As long as we continue down this unabashedly naive road about what science is, and what it is capable of doing, we will continue to fail to reach any sort of meaningful consensus on these matters,” Carolan writes. The dispute over tobacco was never about the science of cigarettes’ link to cancer. It was about whether companies have the right to sell dangerous products and, if so, what obligations they have to the consumers who purchased them. Similarly, the debate over climate change isn’t about whether our planet is heating, but about how much responsibility each country and person bears for stopping it. While researching her book “Merchants of Doubt,” science historian Naomi Oreskes found that some of the same people who were defending the tobacco industry as scientific experts were also receiving industry money to deny the role of human activity in global warming. What these issues had in common, she realized, was that they all involved the need for government action. “None of this is about the science. All of this is a political debate about the role of government,” she said in the documentary. These controversies are really about values, not scientific facts, and acknowledging that would allow us to have more truthful and productive debates. What would that look like in practice? Instead of cherry-picking evidence to support a particular view (and insisting that the science points to a desired action), the various sides could lay out the values they are using to assess the evidence. For instance, in Europe, many decisions are guided by the precautionary principle — a system that values caution in the face of uncertainty and says that when the risks are unclear, it should be up to industries to show that their products and processes are not harmful, rather than requiring the government to prove that they are harmful before they can be regulated. By contrast, U.S. agencies tend to wait for strong evidence of harm before issuing regulations. Both approaches have critics, but the difference between them comes down to priorities: Is it better to exercise caution at the risk of burdening companies and perhaps the economy, or is it more important to avoid potential economic downsides even if it means that sometimes a harmful product or industrial process goes unregulated? In other words, under what circumstances do we agree to act on a risk? How certain do we need to be that the risk is real, and how many people would need to be at risk, and how costly is it to reduce that risk? Those are moral questions, not scientific ones, and openly discussing and identifying these kinds of judgment calls would lead to a more honest debate. Science matters, and we need to do it as rigorously as possible. But science can’t tell us how risky is too risky to allow products like cigarettes or potentially harmful pesticides to be sold — those are value judgements that only humans can make.

Knowing our Leaners

Knowing Our Ecosystem

Check reading comprehension of the following text:Last weekend was one of the most exciting weekends of my life. My friends and I decided to go on a hiking trip to the nearby forest. We started early in the morning, and as we walked, we chatted and laughed, enjoying the fresh air and the beautiful scenery. The sun was shining, and the birds were singing, and we felt free and adventurous. We were wearing comfortable shoes and carried backpacks with snacks and water. As we walked deeper into the forest, we suddenly heard a rustling sound in the bushes. We stopped and listened, and soon enough, a small black bear emerged from the trees. We froze, not knowing what to do, but our guide quickly instructed us to stay still and not to make any sudden movements. The bear seemed to be curious and sniffed around us, but eventually wandered off back into the forest. After the encounter with the bear, we were a bit shaken but also excited. We continued our hike, keeping a closer eye on our surroundings and being extra cautious. We talked about the bear encounter for the rest of the trip, and it became a story to tell to our friends and family back home. Even though it was a scary moment, it made the adventure even more memorable.

What is Electric Force? Electric force is just one of many types of forces in the world of physics. Forces are how and why things move, and can be explained by Newton's Laws of Motion. On the smallest scale, electric force is the resulting interaction between two charged particles. These charges can be either positive or negative. Larger objects can be charged by having an abundance of either of these particles, and therefore can create an electric force on a larger scale. Electric force is the reason why hair will sometimes stand up on its own and is also why we have electricity, allowing us to live in the modern world with lights and technology. Even out in nature electric force is present, as electric force causes lightning to strike. Electric force is fundamental to our everyday way of living. Reviewing Newton's Laws of Motion Newton's Laws of motion are the basic principles or ground rules that are applied all across physics. They describe how objects move and can be used to describe the interaction of charges. They are the following: An object in motion will stay in motion unless an external force is applied The force exerted on an object is equal to the mass times the acceleration of the object. ( ) Every force has an equal and opposite force Newton's laws explain how and why charged particles move. Since there is a force involved (e.g. electric force), particles will move around, which is explained by the first law. The second law describes how acceleration of charges can be calculated once the electric force is known. The third law explains how attractive and repulsive forces between charged objects are equal and opposite. Electric Force Examples and Types of Charge As previously mentioned, there are only two types of charges; positive and negative. Two like charges will repel (or move away from) each other, and two opposite charges will attract (or move towards) each other. In other words, two positive or two negative charges will repel, while a positive and a negative charge will attract. Opposite charges will attract while like charges will repel. Attraction versus Repelling Forces Notice how the forces acting upon each other are equal and opposite, as Newton's third law states. Both charges are exerting forces onto each other. Charges in Atoms An atom is made up of three types of particles; protons, neutrons, and electrons. Protons have a positive charge, neutrons have no charge, and electrons have a negative charge. There are no positive or negative charges smaller than protons and electrons. Objects on a larger scale result in an overall positive or negative charged due to an uneven distribution of protons to electrons. An atom consisting of more protons than electrons would be considered positive, and an atom with more electrons than protons would be considered negative. Protons are held close to the nucleus and are tightly bound to an atom, so it's difficult for protons to escape an atom. Electrons, on the other hand, are much further away from the nucleus of an atom. This makes it much easier for them to be removed from an atom. Electrons can leave or join atoms, making them positive or negative depending on the amount of protons. Similarly, for the bigger picture, overall materials and objects with more electrons than protons would be considered negative, and vice versa. Electric Force Examples Hair standing up: When hair is brushed, the hairbrush can strip electrons from hair strands, resulting in the hair being positively charged. This addition of electrons to the hairbrush in turn makes the hairbrush negatively charged. Since the hair is now positively charged, and like forces repel, hair strands will move away from each other, resulting in the hair standing up. Current electricity: All of our everyday technology is powered through current electricity, which is the consistent flow of electrons through conductive materials. This flow is caused by the electric force, as the electrons flow from a negative source to a positive source. Lightning: During a storm, it is common for an abundance of electrons to build up on the bottom of a cloud, making that part of the cloud negatively charged. Positive charges in the ground start to gather on the surface or even on tall objects such as trees as they are attracted towards the negatively charged undersides of clouds. Lightning strikes as a result of these charges becoming extremely built up. Lightning is caused by electric force Lightning Electric Force Equation: Coulomb's Law The magnitude of the electric force, or the amount of force in which objects repel or attract, depends on the distance between the two charged objects and the amount of charge each object carries. The electric force is stronger the closer together the two charges are, and weaker as the two charges move apart. Electric force is also stronger with more charge, and weaker with less charge. This effect on electric force is predictable, and is known as Coulomb's Law. It can be calculated using a mathematical equation, and the resulting magnitude of electric force is measured in Newtons. Coulomb's Law Electric force can be calculated using the following equation known as Coulomb's Law: In this equation, F is the electric force measured in newtons, K is a constant known as the electrostatic constant, and are charges one and two measured in coulombs, and is the radial distance in meters between the two charges. Since the distance is squared and on the denominator, the electric force drops off exponentially as charges move away from each other. This means that the Electric force is inversely proportional to distance. As charges move away from each other, the electric force between them gets smaller and smaller, until the force is negligible. The amount of charges are in the numerator of this equation, making the magnitude of the force larger with more charge. This means that the force is directly proportional to the amount of charge. When the charges are smaller, the amount of force will be smaller. When there is a lot of charge, the force will be much greater. When calculating the electric force using Coulomb's law, the resulting answer only gives the magnitude of the force and not the direction. In order to know the direction, you must know the types of charges. Once again, like forces repel, and unlike forces attract. It helps to draw a visual representation, or a free-body diagram, of the charges and forces acting upon them in order to understand the resulting force direction. Electric Field versus Electric Force An electric field is a direct result of an electric force. Its pure definition is electric force per unit charge, and can be thought of as a mapping of the force vectors. An electric field is present anytime there is an electric force. Therefore, when there are two or more charged particles, there is a surrounding electric field. The direction of the electric field is the direction a positive charge would flow if it were placed within the field. The electric field moves out from a positive charge and goes into a negative charge. Particles with unlike charges move towards each other, and their corresponding electric field lines move out from the positive charge and into the negative charge. The strength of the force at any given point can be seen through the spacing of the electric field lines. The electric force is strongest where the electric field lines are closest together, and weaker as these lines move apart. Like Coulomb's law expresses, electric field lines show how the electric force is strongest with a minimum distance between the two charges. Unlike charges will result in a repelling force, and the resulting electric field is a visual representation of this effect. Electric fields of two positive charges have the electric field moving out away from both of them. As with two negative charges, the field lines move in towards each negative. Lesson Summary An electric force is created when there are two or more charged particles or objects. These charges can be either positive or negative. Like charges will attract (move towards each other) while unlike charges will repel (move away from each other). As Newton's third law suggests, the forces acting upon each other are both equal and opposite. Electrons and protons within an atom are the two smallest types of charges there are. Electrons carry a negative charge while protons carry a positive charge. Electrons can be easily removed or added to atoms, making the overall charge positive or negative. Objects with more electrons than protons are negatively charged. Electric force is strengthened with increased charge and a shorter distance between the charges. This effect is known as Coulomb's law and can be calculated with the Coulomb's law equation. The magnitude of the force is measured in Newtons, and the direction can be determined by knowing whether the charges are attracting or repelling each other. An electric field is present wherever there is an electric force. The direction of this electric field is the direction a positive charge would flow if it where to be dropped in the field, which is from the positive to the negative.

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