How do demographers use the "push-pull" theory?

to describe geographical change

Rural urban migration

People of Southeast Asia By the late 20th century, Southeast Asia’s population (including Indonesia and the Philippines) was approaching a half billion, or about one-twelfth of the world’s total. This population, however, was unevenly distributed within the region. By far the nation with the largest population was Indonesia, with about two-fifths of the regional total; in contrast, Brunei’s population was only a tiny fraction of that. Nearly half of the regional population was accounted for by the mainland states, with Vietnam and Thailand being the most populous. Settlement patterns Southeast Asia is predominantly rural: three-fourths of the people live in nonurban areas. Moreover, population is heavily clustered in fertile river valleys and especially in delta areas, such as those of the Mekong and Irrawaddy rivers. Historical, cultural, and environmental influences also have affected the settlement patterns. Java and other core areas such as the Bangkok (Thailand), Hanoi, and Manila metropolitan areas contain high population densities. While the rate of urbanization in Southeast Asia is relatively low compared with those of other developing regions, it is increasing rapidly. Singapore is unique in that it is essentially totally urban. In addition, the Philippines has a much higher than average level of urbanization, in part because of its Spanish and American colonial history. The largest cities—Jakarta (Indonesia), Bangkok, and Manila—are among the world’s most populous. The growth of cities of all sizes is being fueled primarily by natural increase, but rural-urban migration also is a significant contributor. Rural dwellers continue to be attracted by the promise of employment and other opportunities, but for many migrants the informal (undocumented) economic sector in these large cities is the only hope for some form of employment. Settlement patterns in rural areas tend to be associated with agricultural practices. Shifting cultivation is still common in some parts of the region (notably the remote interior areas of Myanmar, Vietnam, and the island of Borneo), although the amount of land so utilized is gradually shrinking. The village is the unit of settlement and often functions collectively, and typically it is moved from time to time. By contrast, wet-rice cultivation, the dominant form of agriculture in Southeast Asia, is sedentary and results in relatively large rural agglomerations with well-developed village life and customs. Dry and upland farming often produces scattered homesteads. Population resettlement to provide agricultural employment and access to land is important in some Southeast Asian countries, notably Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. By far the largest program has been conducted in Indonesia, where more than four million people have been voluntarily resettled from Java and Bali to the less populated islands. Despite considerable success, the program has been plagued by such problems as improper site selection, environmental deterioration, migrant adjustment, land conflicts, and inadequate financing. A program in Malaysia also has been quite successful, in part because it has set much smaller resettlement targets and has been better funded. Vietnamese development policy also has utilized the resettlement of people in an effort to revitalize areas outside the major population centres.

Rural to urban migration in China

Rural to urban migration in India

Demographic trends The annual rate of natural increase in Southeast Asia averages slightly higher than the annual world rate. Considerable variation exists, however, among the region’s countries. The Philippines, Laos, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei are characterized by higher growth; Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia, on the other hand, have considerably lower rates, primarily because of the implementation of effective family-planning programs in these countries. In general, the pace of fertility decline is accelerating, although it is being offset by declining infant mortality and increasing life expectancy. Infant mortality for the region approximates the world average. In the more developed nations—especially Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand—health care programs for infants and children have helped bring about mortality rates well below world averages, while the scarcity of these programs in such countries as Cambodia and Laos has contributed to continued high rates. Life expectancy in the region is somewhat below the world average, with Cambodia having the lowest average and Singapore the highest. Population change also is directly related to internal and external migration. As noted above, rural-to-urban migration continues to be a major aspect of change in nearly all Southeast Asian nations. In certain countries, considerable evidence exists for movements between rural areas (e.g., Thailand) and mobility between urban areas (Indonesia). Internal migration in the Philippines is dominated by movements to Manila and to the frontier areas in the south. Perhaps most significant, given the increasing mobility of the population and access to transport services, is the growth of nonpermanent population movements. Seasonal and other forms of circular migration for limited periods of time are conspicuous, especially in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. The growth in transport access also has created greater commuting ranges for individuals who in the past often had to leave their homes and fields for extended periods to take up work. Refugee movements have been conspicuous in the region, particularly since the mid-1970s. The Vietnamese out-migration to Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, as well as to Hong Kong, is noteworthy. Cambodian and Laotian peoples also have experienced displacement. In addition, there have been numerous instances of religious minorities fleeing persecution, such as the departure of Muslim Burmans in the early 1990s.

Studying population involves examining various aspects of the demographic composition, dynamics, and characteristics of a group of individuals within a specific geographic area. Here are key areas to explore when studying population: Demography: Population Size: Analyze the total number of individuals in a given area or community. Population Distribution: Examine how the population is spread across different regions or areas. Population Density: Explore the concentration of people in a particular area relative to the size of that area. Population Growth and Decline: Birth Rate: Study the number of live births per 1,000 people in a given year. Death Rate: Examine the number of deaths per 1,000 people in a given year. Migration: Explore patterns of people moving into and out of a specific area. Age Structure: Age Distribution: Analyze the distribution of individuals across different age groups in a population. Dependency Ratio: Examine the ratio of dependent individuals (young and elderly) to the working-age population. Gender Composition: Sex Ratio: Study the ratio of males to females in a population. Population Pyramids: Use population pyramids to visualize the age and gender structure of a population. Fertility and Family Planning: Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Explore the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. Contraceptive Use: Analyze the prevalence of contraceptive methods in a population. Mortality and Health: Life Expectancy: Examine the average number of years a person can expect to live. Infant and Child Mortality: Study the number of deaths among infants and children under the age of five. Urbanization: Urban vs. Rural Population: Analyze the distribution of people in urban and rural areas. Rate of Urbanization: Explore the speed at which people are moving from rural to urban areas. Education: Literacy Rates: Examine the percentage of the population that can read and write. Educational Attainment: Study the level of education achieved by individuals within the population. Socioeconomic Factors: Income Distribution: Explore the distribution of income among the population. Employment Rates: Analyze the percentage of the working-age population that is employed. Cultural and Ethnic Composition: Ethnic Diversity: Examine the presence of various ethnic groups within the population. Healthcare and Quality of Life: Access to Healthcare: Study the availability and accessibility of healthcare services. Quality of Life Indicators: Explore factors such as housing, sanitation, and overall living conditions. Population Policies and Government Interventions: Study the impact of government policies on population dynamics, including family planning programs and immigration policies. Environmental Impact: Explore the relationship between population growth and its impact on the environment, including resource consumption and pollution. Global Population Trends: Examine global population trends and their implications, including aging populations and population growth in developing countries. Studying population involves a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates elements from demography, sociology, geography, economics, and public health. Researchers and policymakers use this information to make informed decisions about resource allocation, development planning, and social policies.

Make a multiple choice quiz for my year 8 science students based on the science in this transcript from a video: 3°C 0:04 It can be the difference between snow and sleet 0:08 Wearing a jacket or not 0:11 In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant 0:15 But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic 0:20 Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 0:25 3°C of warming is really disastrous 0:28 The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there 0:32 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C 0:40 This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with 0:46 Children born today... 0:47 ...are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents 0:52 If global temperatures do rise by 3°C... 0:55 ...what would their world look like? Climate change is already having devastating effects 1:03 Rising sea levels 1:05 Desertification 1:07 Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world 1:11 While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction... 1:14 ...this film will show the scenario we all face... 1:17 ...unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels 1:30 In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear 1:35 The slums of Bangladesh’s capital are filling up with climate migrants 1:41 Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh 1:46 There, like many other parts of the country... 1:49 ...rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers... 1:53 ...are washing away people’s homes 1:56 Many, like her, have lost everything 2:00 Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land 2:03 There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house 2:08 There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home 2:12 We used to eat the fruit from our own trees 2:18 I can’t eat them now because they don't exist anymore 2:21 Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka 2:26 Life was much better back home 2:29 It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable 2:33 We didn’t have the time to save anything at all 2:38 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minara’s life 2:45 It’s one of the reasons why so many migrants like her... 2:47 ...are moving to the city each year... 2:50 ...nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate 2:53 And climate models show there could be much worse to come How climate modelling works 3:02 Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj... 3:04 ...has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios... 3:08 ...for the United Nations 3:10 The models we use to carry out this exercise... 3:13 ...really represent the state of the art... 3:15 ...of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading 3:19 Joeri’s projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world 3:26 Here this is the 3°C level... 3:28 ...and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies... 3:32 ...we would hit 3°C by the end of the century 3:36 This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at 3:40 Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept 3:44 The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept... 3:47 ...and net-zero targets are met 3:50 Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century... 3:54 ...there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead 3:59 One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance... 4:03 ...that the plane will crash Nowhere is safe from global warming 4:07 A rise of 3°C would affect everyone 4:10 Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldn’t be immune to the consequences 4:15 European capitals like Paris and Berlin... 4:18 ...would bake under more extreme heatwaves 4:22 Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate 4:27 In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events 4:33 Cities are hotter than the places around them... 4:36 ...they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding 4:39 And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you can’t in the countryside 4:46 And because of their denser populations... 4:49 ...disasters in a city affect far more people 4:52 Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming 4:56 But they have the means to adapt 4:59 Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places 5:03 They have a lot of amenities 5:05 A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world... 5:08 …wouldn’t necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world 5:12 But a city that hasn’t prepared for these sort of eventualities... 5:16 ...that might be a really nasty place The impact of prolonged droughts 5:20 So far, many developed cities have got off lightly... 5:24 ...but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately 5:29 Smallholders—small-scale farmers—are particularly vulnerable to climate change 5:35 And there are over 600 million around the world 5:38 Smallholders with farms under two hectares... 5:40 ...produce around a third of the global food supply 5:46 Central America’s “Dry Corridor”... 5:48 ...supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms 5:53 Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea... 5:56 ...the area is prone to droughts 6:08 Israel Ramírez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala 6:12 Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe 6:18 This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver 6:23 He depends on his crops of corn and beans 6:26 But they’re getting harder to grow 6:30 The surrounding mountains... 6:32 ...used to provide us with native food... 6:38 ...and now that isn’t an option anymore... 6:41 ...due to climate change and its effects 6:46 Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty 6:52 The impact of all of this for us... 6:59 ...malnutrition among children 7:03 We’ve lost a few 7:07 For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before 7:16 The plant dries up and can’t provide us... 7:19 ...with the necessary food provision 7:24 Severe droughts in Central America... 7:26 ...are now four times more likely than they were last century 7:30 Many families from here have gone to the States 7:37 The economic despair and debts... 7:44 ...have pushed many people from this community to do this journey 7:53 Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 7:59 Not all of this has been due to climate change 8:02 But longer droughts would force even more to move 8:05 In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region... 8:09 ...could drop by up to 14% 8:12 At 3°C, over a quarter of the world’s population... 8:16 ...could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year 8:19 Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding 8:24 But for some, too much water will be the problem 8:29 10% of the world’s population lives on a coastline... 8:32 ...that’s less than 10 metres above sea level 8:35 For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster 8:40 By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels 8:46 Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable... 8:49 ...with up to up to a third of the population displaced 8:54 And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives 9:04 You can see the graveyard there, it’s all under water now... 9:08 ...due to this rising sea level and climate change 9:15 The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea 9:19 Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear 9:24 Relatives’ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water 9:29 We have been asked by the government to relocate... 9:32 ...but no one wants to relocate... 9:34 ...because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea 9:39 This is the place we’ve been brought up in 9:41 ...it’s not easy to leave 9:44 Past attempts to build a seawall haven’t worked 9:48 But Barney sees building a new one as the village’s only hope 9:52 If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left 9:56 But if we don’t have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come... 10:01 ...maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded 10:05 Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods 10:11 And many more countries could suffer 10:14 The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries... 10:17 ...that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world 10:21 To escape, many will move… 10:24 …often, to urban areas Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures 10:27 Half the world’s population already lives in cities... 10:31 ...almost a third in slums 10:36 For them, a 3°C world could be deadly 10:40 Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change 10:44 But life could get even worse for her 10:47 I’m struggling a lot nowadays 10:49 The heat during the day is unbearable 10:52 Even late at night it doesn’t cool down 10:57 The heat is getting more intense every day 10:59 I mean, it’s going to get much worse 11:03 I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? 11:08 Dhaka is getting hotter 11:11 In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature... 11:13 ...has crept up by nearly half a degree 11:17 Days that approach 40°C are now being reported 11:20 And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise 11:26 A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity 11:30 Humans cool themselves by sweating… 11:32 But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%... 11:36 ...sweat doesn’t evaporate well 11:38 So people can’t cool down… 11:41 ...even if given unlimited shade and water 11:45 At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body can’t lose heat... 11:49 ...and so it gets hotter and hotter... 11:51 ...and the body is designed to work at a given temperature 11:53 And if it gets too hot inside, you will die 11:58 The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C... 12:02 ...around skin temperature 12:04 Dhaka will have a much higher chance... 12:05 ...of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures... 12:07 ...if global warming reaches 3°C 12:12 You can’t really adapt to that 12:14 You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you can’t work... 12:20 ...can’t do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year... 12:25 ...then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy 12:33 Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates... 12:37 ...have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures 12:40 More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf... 12:43 ...as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States... 12:47 ...could all get to this threshold by the end of the century 12:50 Climate modelling might show us the weather Increased migration and conflict 12:52 But it doesn’t show us its other effects on society 12:56 Established migration patterns could change 12:59 Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders 13:03 Within countries, more people will move to cities 13:07 In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year... 13:10 ...could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change 13:15 When people are displaced by climate... 13:18 …they may well go to cities... 13:19 ...because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already 13:25 A lot of people who can get to the developed world... 13:28 ...not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go 13:35 As migration around the world increases... 13:38 ...there could be more competition for fewer resources 13:42 Water—already a highly contested resource—will be a focal point 13:47 Turkey’s new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq 13:53 China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan 13:57 The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy 14:03 How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions... 14:08 ...in a 3°C world... 14:09 ...is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out 14:14 I think you’d have to be incredibly sanguine... 14:16 ...not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about... 14:19 ...in a 3°C world wouldn’t lead some places... 14:22 ...to the brink of societal collapse 14:25 Those lucky enough to escape unrest... Adaptation and mitigation are crucial 14:28 ...would still have to adapt to a radically different world 14:32 People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones... 14:37 ...is air conditioning 14:39 But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level... 14:42 ...I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture 14:47 There are physical things you can do, like seawalls 14:52 The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering... 14:57 ...doesn’t mean that it will eliminate suffering 15:00 Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet 15:06 Adaptation will only get the world so far 15:09 The best way to deal with a 3°C world... 15:12 ...is not to go to a 3°C world 15:14 And that’s why increasing efforts on mitigation are important 15:17 It’s why working towards negative emissions... 15:20 ...that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important 15:25 Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble 15:33 The scale of change needed... 15:35 ...and the slow progress of governments so far... 15:38 ...means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done 15:44 Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions... 15:48 ...are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 15:54 The need to act has never been clearer 15:57 There’s still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction... 16:02 ...rather than becoming fact

Impact of urban sprawl on the rural-urban fringe

Urban & Rural environments

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