Loading...
The Negative Impact of Social Media on Youth
Quiz by Stephen Parkes
Customize this quiz to suit your class
Instantly translate to 100+ languages
Tag the questions with any skills you have. Your dashboard will track each student's mastery of each skill.
Give this quiz to my class
Health 11/12 Review for Final Exam Core Concepts - Mental and Emotional Health, Substance Abuse Prevention, Safety and Violence Prevention, Family Life and Human Sexuality, Disease Prevention and Control, Healthy Eating Health Education Skills - goal setting, decision making, accessing information/resources, analyzing influences, communication, self-management, advocacy DIMENSIONS of Wellness - social, spiritual, emotional/mental, environmental, financial, intellectual, multicultural, occupational, physical, sexual RISK factors - anything that increases the risk of disease, injury, or illness. PROTECTIVE factors - anything that decreases the risk of disease, injury, or illness. INTERNAL health factors - health factors that can be either hereditary and genetic or acquired elements -- include smoking and personal diet or eating habits. Example – a genetic predisposition to an illness. EXTERNAL health factors - health factors that are part of the direct outer environment, the geographical location, micro-organisms, socio-economic elements that could affect an individual's health. Example – being unable to afford mental health services. Unit 1- Managing Personal and Community Wellness Explain Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs in your own words using the image provided. Explain how each Social Determinant of Health may impact a person’s health. Levels of Disease Prevention • PRIMARY The goal is to avoid conditions altogether. • SECONDARY The goal is early detection. • TERTIARY The goal is to minimize the damage (manage). Define the following terms. Fads/Trends Sleep hygiene Driver safety Unit 2- Investigating Social Ecological Factors on Well-Being Socio-Ecological Model – The SEM examines how health behaviors form based on characteristics of individuals, communities, nations and levels in between. Each level overlaps with other levels signifying how the best public health strategies are those that encompass and target a wide range of perspectives. Interpersonal (personal) health vs. intrapersonal (relationship) health Health INEQUITY - systemic, ingrained and unjust barriers that prevent segments of the population from having the opportunity of health leading to health disparity. IMPLICIT BIAS - a form of bias that occurs automatically and unintentionally, that nevertheless affects judgments, decisions, and behaviors. Research has shown implicit bias can contribute to unequal access to quality healthcare, negative patient-provider relationships and interactions; and create mistrust in the healthcare system and practitioners among patients. This can contribute to health disparities. Health DISPARITY - represents a difference in health between populations. It is often used to describe disease burden and other negative health outcomes socially disadvantaged groups may face. Health EQUITY - The opposite of health inequity. It describes a system that supports a high standard of health and healthcare for all people. Racism - Beliefs, attitudes, institutional arrangements, and acts that tend to denigrate individuals or groups because of phenotypic characteristics or ethnic group affiliation. DISCRIMINATION - An unjust differential treatment of a person or a group. PRIVILEGE- The unearned access to resources and social power that are only available to some because of their membership within certain social groups. OPPRESSION is the act of taking away choices from others and can be defined as a system that maintains advantage and disadvantage based on social identities and that acts on multiple levels from interpersonal to institutional and societal. (internalized, interpersonal, institutional, structural) Systematic Oppression - Intentional disadvantage of groups of people based on their identity while advantaging members of dominant group (race, gender, sexual orientation, language, size, ability, etc.). Intersectionality - The complex, cumulative way in which the effects of multiple forms of discrimination (such as racism, sexism, and classism) combine, overlap, or intersect especially in the experiences of marginalized individuals or groups Unit 3- Accessing Resources and Communicating to Support Mental and Emotional Health What is anger? What is anxiety? What is stress? STRESSORS are the things that cause stress. Stressors can be internal and external. A stressor may be a one-time or short-term occurrence, or it can happen repeatedly over a long time. INTERNAL Stressors - are made by your belief system and the way you evaluate yourself. Examples include pessimistic attitude, negative self-talk, deep need to be perfect, low self-esteem or body image, unhealthy standards for self. EXTERNAL Stressors - are stressful things that happen in your surroundings and/or in your environment. Examples include busy schedules, work problems, family issues, financial trouble, social problems, injury, unforeseen circumstances. Socio-economic issues are also a part of external stressors such as poverty, violence, and racism. Define the following mental health conditions. Depression Eating disorders NSSI Non-suicidal self-injury Grief/Loss Suicide prevention A.C.T. • ACKNOWLEDGE- Tell them in a caring way that you recognize that they are having a problem • CARE- You can show you care by actively listening - put away anything else you are doing, make eye contact, sit down, ask questions. • TELL-(call 988 for additional help and support) - Tell them it is important that they speak with a trusted adult. Help them figure out who this may be and offer to go with your friend. A social norm is an unwritten, informal rule meant to guide behavior among the of society. It distinguishes between acceptable and unacceptable, good and bad, and so on. Social norms can influence a person with emotional or mental health disorders, access to care and stigmatize their situation. STIGMA- a mark of disgrace associated with a particular circumstance, quality, or person. • Self-stigma - This describes the internalized stigma that people with mental health conditions feel about themselves. • Public stigma - This refers to the negative attitudes around mental health from people in society. • Institutional stigma - This is a type of systemic stigma that arises from corporations, governments, and other institutions. Unit 4- Evaluating Risks of Substance Use and Abuse Harm Reduction - a set of practical strategies and ideas aimed at reducing negative consequences associated with drug use. Explain how each level of the Social Ecological Model is impacted by addiction. Individual Relationship Community Society SEM Level Contributing/Risk Factors to substance use Preventative/Protective Factors for substance use Individual Interpersonal/Relationship Community Society Unit 5- Analyzing Influences to Examine Ways to Increase Safety and Reduce Violence HATE CRIME - a crime, usually violent, motivated by prejudice or intolerance toward an individual’s national origin, ethnicity, color, religion, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, or disability. Explain how the media influences violence in society. The Pyramid of Hate Explain the escalation of hate using the Pyramid of Hate visual. List several hate crime motivators. Example: age HEALTHY Relationship Signs - comfortable pace, trust, honesty, independence, respect, equality, kindness, taking responsibility, healthy conflict, fun UNHEALTHY Relationship Signs - intensity, possessiveness, manipulation, isolation, sabotage, belittling, guilting, volatility, deflecting responsibility, betrayal Sexual Assault is a sexual behavior WITHOUT consent. Human trafficking - the recruitment, harboring, transportation, provision, or obtaining of a person for labor or services, using force, fraud, or coercion for the purpose of subjection to involuntary servitude, peonage, debt bondage, or slavery. Sex trafficking - commercial sex act induced by force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person induced to perform such an act has not attained 18 years of age. Trafficking happens using… • Force - using violence to control someone. • Fraud - using lies to control someone. • Coercion - using threats to control someone. Unit 6- Family Life and Human Sexuality Agency - A belief about yourself and the extent to which you can act on that belief. • The ability to choose freely one’s own narrative. • To embrace the idea that I am the cause (or agent) of my own thoughts and actions. • Personal agency is a personal responsibility for who we are, what we experience, what we do about that experience, and how we shape our world to give us more of the experiences we want. SEXUAL Agency • The ability to choose your own interests and desires vs. what we see in the media or others’ perceptions • The ability to identify, communicate, and negotiate one’s sexual needs • The ability to initiate behaviors that allow for the satisfaction of those needs Sexually Explicit Material - photographs, videos, films, magazines, and books whose primary themes, topics, or depictions involve sexuality that may cause sexual arousal. Sexual scripts - thoughts, patterns, or behavior that a person has about themselves in a romantic or sexual context. It is how people picture themselves or want to project themselves in front of others. Reproductive Rights of Teens - In Maryland, teens have the right to an abortion, keep their child, obtain and use birth control, paternity tests, adoption, give up custody of their child within 10 days of birth (Safe Haven Law). • REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS- legal rights and the freedom of the individual to control decisions regarding contraception, abortion, sterilization and childbirth. • SAFE HAVEN LAW- a distressed parent who is unable or unwilling to care for their infant can safely give up custody of their baby, no questions asked. CONSENT is an agreement between participants to engage in sexual activity. • It is clearly and freely communicated, verbal, and affirmative. Consent CANNOT be given if… • A person is underage, one or both partners is intoxicated or incapacitated by drugs or alcohol, one partner is asleep or unconscious, one partner feels pressured, threatened or intimidated, or one partner holds a position of power or authority over the other. Unit 7- Advocating for Enhanced Nutrition, Food Systems, and Health Outcomes Dietary Guidelines for Americans Guideline 1: Follow a Healthy Dietary Pattern at Every Life Stage Guideline 2: Customize and Enjoy Food and Beverage Choices to Reflect Personal Preferences, Cultural Traditions, and Budgetary Considerations Guideline 3: Focus on Meeting Food Group Needs with Nutrient-Dense Foods and Beverages, and Stay Within Calorie Limits Guideline 4: Limit Foods and Beverages Higher in Added Sugars, Saturated Fat, and Sodium, and Limit Alcoholic Beverages FOOD DESERT- a neighborhood where there is little or limited access to healthy and affordable food such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, low-fat milk and other foods that make up the full range of a healthy diet. FOOD INSEQURITY lack of access to a sufficient amount of food because of limited funds. More than 49 million American households are considered food insecure and are vulnerable to poor health as a result. PROCCESED FOODS- any raw agricultural commodities that have been washed, cleaned, milled, cut, chopped, heated, pasteurized, blanched, cooked, canned, frozen, dried, dehydrated, mixed or packaged — anything done to them that alters their natural state.Considerations in the Study of Criminal Justice Inequilty in Canada A key feature of Can Society is inequity, particularly income inequity Top 1% earns 39.1% of income One million children live in low-income households Gender inequality in the workplace costs Canada $150 billion/year Women working full-time earn 74.2 cents for every dollar that full-time male workers make Racism, Prejudice and Discrimination Prejudice: unsubtitled, negative prejudgment of individuals/groups based on ethnicity, religion or race Discrimination: action/decision treats a person/group negatively Racism: prejudice, discrimination or antagonism based on belief that one’s race is superior Racial Profiling: action that relies on stereotypes about race, colour, ethnicity, ancestry, religion, place of origin rather than on reasonable suspicion Racial Profiling Experiences of Women Women- UNiqu experiences within CJS Higher education than ever before Self-report violent victimization is higher among women (85% per 100,000 women versus 67% per 100,000 for men) Experiences of Indigenous Persons Disproportionately represented as both victims and offenders at all stages of the criminal justice system Violent victimization is more than double that of non-indigenous persons (160 vs. 74/1,000) 27% homicide victims in 2009 were indigenous The Legacy of Colonization Many indigenous people live on the margins of Canadian society Pervasive poverty High rates of unemployment Low levels of formal education High death rates (accidents/violence) Often much worse off than non-indigenous persons Residential school system operated by federal government -1880s-1990 150,000 Indigenous children sent to residential schools “60s schoop” Intergenerational impact - residential schools - Truth and Reconciliation Commission Additional Considerations Escalating Costs of the CJS CJS expenditures have increased despite the overall decline in crime rates across the country Rise of the Surveillance Society Life in early 21st century- the pervasiveness of technology, surveillance technology Most citizens do not realize that every day their activities are recorded by video camera while shopping, when standing at a bus stop, even while driving Needs of Crime Victims Physically, Psychologically, emotionally, financially and social Victims can feel worse because of re-victimization Re-victimization: the negative impact on victims of crimes casued by the decisions and actions of criminal justice personnel Canadian Victims Bills of Rights, 2015. Summary Inequality, racism, prejudice and discriantion were intriduced as features of Canadian Society These are often manifested in racial profliing and the racialization of gropus and individuals Addtional consideration in the study of teh criminal juscitce system are The escalating costs of criminal jusicte The question as to whether the Canadian public is getting the “value of money,” The changing boundaries of criminal justice agencies as reflected in the development of multi agency partnerships Additional Consideration in the study of the criminal Justice system are The challenges posed by teh rise of teh surveillance society due to the pervasiveness of technology The challenges faced by crime victims Concerns for the health and wellness of offenders criminal justice professionals and The lack of diversity among criminaA1 Psychological definition of health and ill health, addiction and stress Definitions and characteristics of health and ill health, addiction and stress. Health and ill health: biomedical, biopsychosocial, health as a continuum. Behavioural and physiological addiction: o Griffiths’ six components of addiction: physical and psychological dependence (salience), tolerance, withdrawal, relapse, conflict, mood alteration o stress: definition of a stressor, psychological stress, stress and perceived ability to cope. A2 Psychological approaches to health Biological influences – of genetic predisposition, the roles of neurotransmitter imbalances. Behaviourist approaches – the role of cues, positive reinforcement and negative reinforcement to explain healthy and unhealthy behaviours; using operant conditioning to encourage and incentivise behaviour. Social learning approach – effects of parental and peer role models on healthy and unhealthy behaviours; role models in health education. • Cognitive approach – decisions to engage in behaviours to provide relief from stress, anxiety, boredom or to mitigate impacts of other health problems, resolving cognitive dissonance for behaviour change, professional biases in diagnoses and treatments. A3 Theories of stress, behavioural addiction and physiological addiction Theories: key concepts of psychological theories of stress, behavioural addiction and physiological addiction, to include: Health belief model concepts of perceived seriousness, susceptibility, cost-benefit analysis, how demographic variables such as age, gender, culture and external/internal cues affect behaviour Locus of control: internal and external locus of control, the role of attributions in determining health behaviour A1 Psychological definition of health and ill health, addiction and stress Definitions and characteristics of health and ill health, addiction and stress. Health and ill health: biomedical, biopsychosocial, health as a continuum. Behavioural and physiological addiction: o Griffiths’ six components of addiction: physical and psychological dependence (salience), tolerance, withdrawal, relapse, conflict, mood alteration o stress: definition of a stressor, psychological stress, stress and perceived ability to cope. A2 Psychological approaches to health Biological influences – of genetic predisposition, the roles of neurotransmitter imbalances. Behaviourist approaches – the role of cues, positive reinforcement and negative reinforcement to explain healthy and unhealthy behaviours; using operant conditioning to encourage and incentivise behaviour. Social learning approach – effects of parental and peer role models on healthy and unhealthy behaviours; role models in health education. • Cognitive approach – decisions to engage in behaviours to provide relief from stress, anxiety, boredom or to mitigate impacts of other health problems, resolving cognitive dissonance for behaviour change, professional biases in diagnoses and treatments. A3 Theories of stress, behavioural addiction and physiological addiction Theories: key concepts of psychological theories of stress, behavioural addiction and physiological addiction, to include: Health belief model concepts of perceived seriousness, susceptibility, cost-benefit analysis, how demographic variables such as age, gender, culture and external/internal cues affect behaviour Locus of control: internal and external locus of control, the role of attributions in determining health behaviour Introduction to Hedging Instruments: Forwards, Futures, Options, and Swaps Hedging instruments are financial tools used by businesses and investors to mitigate risk. These instruments help protect against adverse price movements in assets such as commodities, currencies, interest rates, or securities. The four main hedging instruments are forwards, futures, options, and swaps. 1. Forwards A forward contract is a customised agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. Key Characteristics: Over-the-counter (OTC): Traded directly between parties, not on an exchange. Customisation: Can be tailored to suit the needs of the parties involved. Settlement: Occurs at the end of the contract, which may involve physical delivery or cash settlement. Risk: Forwards carry counter-party risk, as there is a possibility one party may default. Example: A company that needs to import raw materials in six months may enter into a forward contract to lock in the current price, avoiding the risk of price increases. 2. Futures A futures contract is similar to a forward, but it is standardised and traded on an exchange. This standardisation eliminates counter-party risk. Key Characteristics: Standardised: Contract size, expiration, and other terms are fixed by the exchange. Mark-to-market: Gains and losses are settled daily. Liquidity: Futures are highly liquid because they are traded on exchanges. Regulation: As they are traded on formal exchanges, they are more regulated than forwards. Example: A wheat farmer may sell futures contracts to hedge against a possible decline in wheat prices before harvest. 3. Options Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a specified price on or before a certain date. There are two types of options: call options and put options. Call Option: Gives the holder the right to buy an asset at a predetermined price. Put Option: Gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price. Key Characteristics: Premium: The buyer pays a premium upfront to obtain the option. Limited Risk: The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. Flexibility: Options can be used for speculative or hedging purposes. Example: An investor holding stocks may buy a put option to protect against potential declines in the stock's price. 4. Swaps A swap is a contract in which two parties agree to exchange cash flows or liabilities over a specific period. The most common types are interest rate swaps and currency swaps. Key Characteristics: Customizable: Like forwards, swaps are often tailored to meet the needs of the parties involved. Counterparty Risk: Swaps are typically OTC instruments, exposing parties to default risk. Common Uses: Used to manage interest rate risk or currency risk. Example: A company with a variablerate loan may enter into an interest rate swap to exchange its variable payments for fixedrate payments, thus locking in stable costs. Hedging instruments are essential for managing financial risk in volatile markets. Each instrument serves different purposes, with varying levels of complexity, risk, and customization. Whether through forwards, futures, options, or swaps, businesses can better plan for the future by reducing exposure to uncertain price fluctuations. Hedging Strategies for Market Risk, Credit Risk, and Currency Risk 1. Hedging Strategies for Market Risk Market risk (also known as systematic risk) arises from fluctuations in asset prices, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and interest rates, due to economic factors or market volatility. Key Hedging Instruments for Market Risk: Derivatives (Options, Futures, and Forwards): These instruments allow investors to hedge against unfavorable price movements in stocks, commodities, or interest rates. Example: An investor holding a large stock portfolio might buy a put option to protect against a potential market downturn. If the market declines, the put option increases in value, offsetting losses in the portfolio. Short Selling: Investors can sell borrowed assets with the expectation of buying them back at a lower price, profiting from the decline. Example: A fund manager expecting a market decline may short sell stocks to hedge a portfolio against losses. Common Hedging Strategies: Portfolio Diversification: Reducing market risk by spreading investments across various asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) and sectors. Using Index Futures: Large portfolios can be hedged using index futures that track the performance of the overall market. If the market declines, profits from the short position in the futures contract will offset losses in the portfolio. Risk Parity: Allocating assets based on the level of risk rather than the dollar amount invested, balancing risk exposure across asset classes. 2. Hedging Strategies for Credit Risk Credit risk refers to the possibility that a borrower will default on a debt obligation. This is especially important for banks, lenders, and institutions dealing with bonds and loans. Key Hedging Instruments for Credit Risk: Credit Default Swaps (CDS): A financial derivative where the buyer of a CDS pays a premium to the seller in exchange for protection against a default on a loan or bond. Example: A bank holding corporate bonds can buy a CDS to ensure they are compensated if the issuing company defaults. Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs): These instruments pool together various debt instruments and allow risk to be distributed among multiple investors. Credit Insurance: Companies may use insurance to protect against the risk of a customer defaulting on payments. Common Hedging Strategies: Diversification of Loan Portfolio: Spreading out credit exposures across various industries, geographies, and borrower profiles reduces the overall risk of default. Tightening Lending Standards: Limiting exposure to highrisk borrowers by implementing stringent credit assessments. AssetBacked Securities: Banks can sell loans or bonds packaged as assetbacked securities to reduce their exposure to credit risk. 3. Hedging Strategies for Currency Risk Currency risk (or exchange rate risk) arises from fluctuations in foreign exchange rates, which can affect companies involved in international trade or with investments in foreign countries. Key Hedging Instruments for Currency Risk: Forward Contracts: A firm agrees to exchange a specified amount of currency at a predetermined exchange rate on a future date. Example: A U.S. exporter expecting payment in euros might enter into a forward contract to sell euros and lock in a favorable exchange rate. Currency Options: These give the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specific price. Example: A U.S.based company buying goods from Japan might buy a call option on the yen to hedge against the risk of yen appreciation. Currency Swaps: Two parties exchange interest payments and principal in different currencies to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations. Common Hedging Strategies: Natural Hedging: Companies can offset currency risk by balancing foreign revenue with costs in the same currency. For example, if a company generates revenue in euros, it can also incur expenses in euros, reducing exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. Multi-Currency Invoicing: Firms can invoice in their home currency, shifting the currency risk to the buyer. Currency Diversification: Holding a diversified basket of currencies can reduce exposure to large fluctuations in any one currency. Effective hedging strategies are crucial for managing various types of risks in financial markets. Market risk can be managed using instruments like futures and options, while credit risk can be mitigated through diversification and credit derivatives. Currency risk, often faced by multinational firms, can be hedged using forward contracts, options, or swaps. Each strategy helps firms and investors protect their portfolios, ensure financial stability, and reduce the impact of adverse movements in the financial markets. Portfolio Risk Management Techniques: Diversification, Asset Allocation, and Risk Budgeting Managing risk is a fundamental aspect of portfolio management. Investors use various techniques to control and reduce the risks inherent in investing. Three key techniques used in portfolio risk management are diversification, asset allocation, and risk budgeting. Each of these techniques helps in mitigating potential losses while aiming to achieve the desired return. 1. Diversification Diversification is a risk management strategy that involves spreading investments across different assets, sectors, or geographic regions to reduce exposure to any single risk. The idea is that different assets perform differently under various market conditions, so losses in one investment can be offset by gains in others. Key Benefits of Diversification: Reduction of Unsystematic Risk: Unsystematic risk, which is unique to a specific company or industry, can be reduced by holding a variety of investments that respond differently to market conditions. Improved Stability: A diversified portfolio is less volatile, as the negative performance of one asset can be balanced by the positive performance of others. Methods of Diversification: Across Asset Classes: Investing in a mix of asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate. Example: A portfolio with 60% equities, 30% bonds, and 10% commodities is more diversified than one solely consisting of stocks. Within Asset Classes: Diversifying within a single asset class (e.g., holding stocks from different sectors like technology, healthcare, and energy). Geographic Diversification: Investing in assets across various countries or regions to mitigate country-specific risks. Example: Holding U.S. stocks along with emerging market equities can reduce risks related to a downturn in one country's economy. 2. Asset Allocation Asset allocation refers to the process of dividing investments among different asset classes (such as stocks, bonds, and cash) to align with an investor's risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals. Asset allocation plays a crucial role in portfolio risk management by determining the overall risk-return profile of the portfolio. Key Elements of Asset Allocation: Strategic Asset Allocation: A longterm approach that involves setting target allocations for different asset classes based on financial goals and risk tolerance. Example: A young investor with a longterm horizon might allocate 70% to stocks, 20% to bonds, and 10% to cash. Tactical Asset Allocation: A more active approach that involves adjusting the asset mix in response to short-term market conditions. Example: If the investor expects an economic downturn, they might temporarily reduce exposure to equities and increase exposure to bonds. Types of Asset Allocation Models: Conservative: Focuses on preserving capital with a larger allocation to bonds and cash (e.g., 20% stocks, 80% bonds). Balanced: A moderate risk approach with an equal focus on growth and income (e.g., 50% stocks, 50% bonds). Aggressive: Targets higher returns by investing predominantly in equities, accepting higher risk (e.g., 80% stocks, 20% bonds). Example of Asset Allocation: A 40 year old investor with moderate risk tolerance may allocate their portfolio as follows: 50% equities, 40% bonds, and 10% in alternative investments such as real estate or commodities. The equities provide growth potential, while the bonds and alternative assets offer stability and income. 3. Risk Budgeting Risk budgeting is a method of allocating risk across different components of a portfolio, rather than focusing solely on returns. The goal is to optimise the portfolio’s risk-return profile by distributing risk in a way that aligns with the investor’s objectives and risk tolerance. Key Concepts of Risk Budgeting: Risk Contribution: Each asset class or investment in the portfolio contributes a certain amount of risk (measured by metrics such as volatility or Value at Risk). Risk budgeting ensures that no single asset class dominates the overall risk of the portfolio. Example: A portfolio may contain 60% stocks and 40% bonds, but if the stocks are highly volatile, they may contribute 90% of the portfolio's risk. Target Risk: Investors set a maximum acceptable level of risk (e.g., a portfolio volatility of 10%) and allocate investments so that the total risk remains within this target. Techniques in Risk Budgeting: Risk Parity: Allocates risk evenly across asset classes, rather than allocating capital based solely on return expectations. Example: In a risk-parity portfolio, both bonds and stocks might be balanced in such a way that they contribute equally to the overall portfolio risk, even though the dollar investment in bonds may be larger due to their lower volatility. Value at Risk (VaR): This technique measures the potential loss in a portfolio over a specific time period, under normal market conditions, at a given confidence level. The risk budget ensures that the potential loss stays within acceptable limits. Example of Risk Budgeting: An investor targets an overall portfolio risk of 8% volatility. After analyzing the risk contribution of each asset class, they determine that equities, which currently make up 60% of the portfolio, contribute 70% of the risk. To adhere to the risk budget, the investor may reduce their equity exposure and increase their allocation to bonds or other less volatile assets. Diversification, asset allocation, and risk budgeting are complementary techniques used in portfolio risk management. Diversification reduces unsystematic risk by spreading investments across various assets. Asset allocation ensures that investments align with an investor's goals and risk tolerance. Risk budgeting focuses on managing the contribution of risk from each asset class to create a balanced and efficient portfolio. Together, these strategies help investors achieve a balance between risk and return, ensuring longterm portfolio stability. Risk Mitigation Through Insurance, Securitisation, and Other Financial Engineering Techniques Risk mitigation is a core objective in financial management, and various strategies can be employed to reduce or manage risks. Three major approaches are insurance, securitisation, and financial engineering techniques. Each of these methods helps firms and individuals transfer, reduce, or eliminate certain financial risks. 1. Insurance as a Risk Mitigation Tool Insurance is a traditional risk transfer method that protects against financial losses by shifting the risk to an insurance company in exchange for premium payments. It is widely used to mitigate various forms of risk, such as operational, liability, and property risks. Key Aspects of Insurance for Risk Mitigation: Risk Transfer: The insurer takes on the risk in exchange for a premium, thus protecting the insured party from unexpected financial losses. Indemnity: In the event of a loss, the insurance policy compensates the insured based on the terms of the contract. Customisable Coverage: Insurance policies can be tailored to address specific risks, such as property damage, business interruption, liability, or cyber risks. Types of Insurance for Businesses: Property and Casualty Insurance: Covers physical assets like buildings, machinery, and inventory from risks like fire, theft, or natural disasters. Liability Insurance: Protects businesses against legal liabilities arising from accidents, negligence, or professional errors. Business Interruption Insurance: Compensates for lost income if a business has to halt operations due to unforeseen events. Credit Insurance: Shields companies from losses due to the nonpayment of trade receivables. 2. Securitisation as a Risk Mitigation Technique Securitisation is a financial engineering process that involves pooling various financial assets (such as loans, mortgages, or receivables) and converting them into marketable securities. This process allows firms to transfer risk to investors, thereby reducing their exposure. Key Elements of Securitisation: Risk Transfer: By securitising assets, companies can transfer the risk of default or nonpayment to investors who purchase the securities. Liquidity Creation: Securitisation converts illiquid assets (like mortgages or loans) into liquid, tradeable securities, improving cash flow for the originating firm. Diversification of Risk: Pooling assets with different risk profiles reduces the impact of individual defaults, spreading the risk across multiple investors. Common Forms of Securitisation: MortgageBacked Securities (MBS): Pools of mortgages are bundled and sold as securities to investors, transferring the risk of mortgage defaults. Example: A bank that issues home loans can bundle those loans into MBS and sell them to investors, transferring the credit risk of potential defaults. Asset-Backed Securities (ABS): Similar to MBS, but backed by other types of assets like credit card receivables, auto loans, or student loans. Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs): Structured financial products that pool different types of debt, such as loans and bonds, and sell them as securities with varying risk levels. Example: A bank may issue a portfolio of auto loans and then pool these loans into an assetbacked security (ABS). The ABS is sold to investors, who take on the risk of loan defaults. By securitising the loans, the bank reduces its exposure to credit risk and generates immediate cash flow. 3. Financial Engineering Techniques for Risk Mitigation Financial engineering involves the use of complex financial instruments, derivatives, and structured products to manage or mitigate financial risks. These techniques allow firms to hedge against specific risks, optimize capital structure, and improve financial stability. Common Financial Engineering Techniques: Derivatives: Financial instruments like futures, forwards, options, and swaps are used to hedge against price fluctuations, interest rate changes, or currency movements. Example: A company with significant foreign exchange exposure may use currency forwards or options to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations, ensuring predictable cash flows. Options and Futures: Options: Provides the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price, allowing firms to hedge against unfavorable price movements. Example: An airline company can buy options on jet fuel to hedge against rising fuel prices. Futures: Standardized contracts to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a future date, commonly used to hedge commodities or financial assets. Example: A wheat producer may use futures contracts to lock in a favorable price for its crop, hedging against a potential price drop. Swaps: These involve the exchange of cash flows between two parties, often used to manage interest rate risk or currency risk. Interest Rate Swaps: Firms can exchange floatingrate interest payments for fixedrate payments to hedge against rising interest rates. Currency Swaps: Used to hedge exchange rate risk in crossborder transactions by exchanging principal and interest payments in different currencies. Example: A company with a variablerate loan may enter into an interest rate swap to exchange its variable payments for fixedrate payments, locking in stable costs. Structured Products: These are customised financial instruments designed to achieve specific riskreturn objectives. They often combine derivatives with other securities to create tailored risk exposures. Example: A structured note that combines a bond with an embedded option, offering downside protection while allowing for potential upside linked to the performance of an equity index. Credit Derivatives: Tools like credit default swaps (CDS) allow investors to transfer credit risk to other parties. Example: A bondholder worried about a company’s potential default may purchase a CDS, which pays out in case of a default event. Example: A company may issue a bond with an embedded call option, allowing it to repurchase the bond if interest rates decline. This financial engineering tool enables the company to mitigate the risk of rising interest rates, reducing future borrowing costs. Risk mitigation through insurance, securitisation, and financial engineering offers businesses a variety of tools to manage and transfer risks. Insurance allows for the direct transfer of risk to an insurer, while securitisation helps companies offload risk by packaging and selling assets as securities. Financial engineering techniques, including derivatives, swaps, and structured products, provide sophisticated ways to hedge market, interest rate, and currency risks. Each approach helps organizations improve financial stability, enhance liquidity, and manage potential losses in a volatile market environment.Contact with the Americas In 1001, Viking sailors led by Leif Erikson reached the eastern tip of North America. Archaeologists have found evidence of the Viking settlement of Vinland in present-day Newfoundland, Canada. The Vikings did not stay in Vinland long and no one is sure why they left. However, Viking stories describe fierce battles with Skraelings, the Viking name for the Inuit. Evidence suggests that Asians continued to cross the Bering Sea into North America after the last ice age ended. Some scholars believe that ancient seafarers from Polynesia may have traveled to the Americas using their knowledge of the stars and winds. Modern Polynesians have sailed canoes thousands of miles in this way. Still others think that fishing boats from China and Japan blew off course and landed on the western coast of North or South America. Perhaps such voyages occurred. If so, they were long forgotten. Before 1492, the peoples of Asia and Europe had no knowledge of the Americas and their remarkable civilizations. The Voyages of Columbus Portuguese sailors had pioneered new routes around Africa toward Asia in the late 1400s. Spain, too, wanted a share of the riches. King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella hoped to keep their rival, Portugal, from controlling trade with India, China, and Japan. They agreed to finance a voyage of exploration by Christopher Columbus. Columbus, an Italian sea captain, planned to reach the East Indies by sailing west across the Atlantic. Finding a sea route straight to Asia would give the Spanish direct access to the silks, spices, and precious metals of Asia. The spice trade was a major cause for European exploration and a reason the Spanish rulers supported Columbus’s voyage. They also wanted wealth from any source. “Get gold,” King Ferdinand said to Columbus. “Humanely if possible, but at all hazards—get gold.” Crossing the Atlantic In August 1492, Columbus set out with three ships and about 90 sailors. As captain, he commanded the largest vessel, the Santa María. The other ships were the Niña and the Pinta. After a brief stop at the Canary Islands, the little fleet continued west into unknown seas. Fair winds sped them along, but a month passed without the sight of land. Some sailors began to grumble. They had never been away from land for so long and feared being lost at sea. Still, Columbus sailed on. On October 7, sailors saw flocks of birds flying southwest. Columbus changed course to follow the birds. A few days later, crew members spotted tree branches and flowers floating in the water. At 2 a.m. on October 12, the lookout on the Pinta spotted white cliffs shining in the moonlight. “Tierra! Tierra!” he shouted. “Land! Land!” At dawn, Columbus rowed ashore and planted the banner of Spain. He was convinced that he had reached the East Indies in Asia. He called the people he found there “Indians.” In fact, he had reached islands off the coasts of North America and South America in the Caribbean Sea. These islands later became known as the West Indies. For three months, Columbus explored the West Indies. To his delight, he found signs of gold on the islands. Eager to report his success, he returned to Spain. Columbus Claims Lands for Spain In Spain, Columbus presented Queen Isabella and King Ferdinand with gifts of pink pearls and brilliantly colored parrots. Columbus brought with him many things that Europeans had never seen before: tobacco, pineapples, and hammocks used for sleeping. Columbus also described the “Indians” he had met, the Taino (ty noh). The Taino, he promised, could easily be converted to Christianity and could also be used as slaves. The Spanish monarchs were impressed. They gave Columbus the title Admiral of the Ocean Sea. They also agreed to finance future voyages. The promise of great wealth, and the chance to spread Christianity, gave them a reason to explore further. Columbus made three more voyages across the Atlantic. In 1493, he founded the first Spanish colony in the Americas, Santo Domingo, on an island he called Hispaniola (present-day Haiti and the Dominican Republic). A colony is an area settled and ruled by the government of a distant land. Columbus also explored present-day Cuba and Jamaica. He sailed along the coasts of Central America and northern South America. He claimed all of these lands for Queen Isabella of Spain. Columbus proved to be a better explorer than governor. During his third expedition, settlers on Hispaniola complained of his harsh rule. Queen Isabella appointed an investigator, who sent Columbus back to Spain in chains. In the end, the queen pardoned Columbus, but he never regained the honors he had won earlier. He died in 1506, still convinced that he had reached Asia. The Impact of Columbus’s Voyages Columbus has long been honored as the bold sea captain who “discovered America.” Today, we recognize that American Indians had discovered and settled these lands long before 1492. We also recognize that Columbus and the Europeans who followed him treated the ancient inhabitants of the Americas brutally. Still, Columbus’s voyages did change history. They marked the beginning of lasting contact among the peoples of Europe, Africa, and the Americas. For a great many American Indians, contact had tragic results. Columbus and those who followed were convinced that European culture was superior to that of the Indians. The Spanish claimed Taino lands and forced the Taino to work in gold mines, on ranches, or in Spanish households. Many Taino died from harsh conditions or European diseases. The Taino population was wiped out. Still, the voyages of Columbus signaled a turning point for the Americas. A turning point is a moment in history that marks a decisive change. Curious Europeans saw the new lands as a place where they could settle, trade, and grow rich. Spanish Exploration Continues After the voyages of Columbus, the Spanish explored and settled other Caribbean islands that Columbus had found. They sought gold, land for crops, people to enslave, and converts to Christianity for the Spanish crown. By 1511, they had conquered Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and Cuba. They also explored the eastern coasts of North America and South America in search of a western route to Asia. In 1513, Vasco Núñez de Balboa (bal boh uh) crossed the Isthmus of Panama. American Indians had told him that a large body of water lay to the west. With a party of Spanish soldiers and Indians, Balboa reached the Pacific Ocean and claimed the ocean for Spain. The Spanish had no idea how wide the Pacific was until a sea captain named Ferdinand Magellan (muh jel un) sailed across it. The expedition—made up of five ships and about 250 crew members—left Spain in 1519. Fifteen months later, it cut through the stormy southern tip of South America by way of what is now known as the Strait of Magellan and entered the Pacific Ocean. Crossing the vast Pacific, the sailors ran out of food: Primary Source “We remained 3 months and 20 days without taking in provisions or other refreshments and ate only old biscuit reduced to powder, full of grubs and stinking from the dirt which rats had made on it. We drank water that was yellow and stinking.” —Antonio Pigafetta, The Diary of Antonio Pigafetta Magellan himself was killed in a battle with the local people of the Philippine Islands off the coast of Asia. In 1522, only one ship and 18 sailors returned to Spain. They were the first people to circumnavigate, or sail completely around, the world. In doing so, they had found an all-water western route to Asia. Europeans became aware of the true size of the Earth. How Did the Columbian Exchange Affect the Rest of the World? The encounter between the peoples of the Eastern and Western Hemispheres sparked a global exchange of goods and ideas. Because it started with the voyages of Columbus, this transfer is known as the Columbian Exchange. The Columbian Exchange refers to a biological and cultural exchange of animals, plants, human populations, diseases, food, government, technology, the arts, and languages. The exchange went in both directions. Europeans learned much from American Indians. At the same time, Europeans contributed in many ways to the culture of the Americas. This exchange also brought about many modifications, or changes, to the physical environment of the Americas, with both positive and negative results. Changing Environments Europeans introduced domestic animals such as chickens from Europe and Africa. European pigs, cattle, and horses often escaped into the wild and multiplied rapidly. Forests and grasslands were converted to pastures. As horses spread through what would become the United States, Indians learned to ride them and used them to carry heavy loads. Plants from Europe and Africa changed the way American Indians lived. The first bananas came from the Canary Islands. By 1520, one Spaniard reported that banana trees had spread “so greatly that it is marvelous to see the great abundance of them.” Oranges, lemons, and figs were also new to the Americas. In North America, explorers also brought such plants as bluegrass, the daisy, and the dandelion. These plants spread quickly in American soil and modified American grasslands. Tragically, Europeans also brought new diseases, such as smallpox and influenza. American Indians had no resistance to these diseases. Historians estimate that within 75 years, diseases from Europe had killed almost 90 percent of the people in the Caribbean Islands and in Mexico. American Indian Influences on Europe, Africa and Asia American Indians introduced Europeans to valuable food crops such as corn, potatoes, sweet potatoes, beans, tomatoes, manioc, squash, peanuts, pineapples, and blueberries. Today, almost half the world’s food crops come from plants that were first grown in the Americas. Europeans carried the new foods with them as they sailed around the world. Everywhere, people’s diets changed and populations increased. In South Asia, people used American hot peppers and chilies to spice stews. Chinese peasants began growing corn and sweet potatoes. Italians made sauces from tomatoes. People in West Africa grew manioc and corn. European settlers often adopted American Indian skills. In the North, Indians showed Europeans how to use snowshoes and trap beavers and other fur-bearing animals. European explorers learned how to paddle Indian canoes. Some leaders studied American Indian political structures. In the 1700s, Benjamin Franklin admired the Iroquois League and urged American colonists to unite in a similar way. Positive and Negative Consequences Through the Columbian Exchange, Europeans and American Indians modified their environments and gained new resources and skills. At the same time, warfare and disease killed many on both sides. Europeans viewed expansion positively. They gained great wealth, explored trade routes, and spread Christianity. Yet their farming, mining, and diseases took a toll on the physical environment and left many American Indians dead. Despite these negatives, the Columbian Exchange shaped the modern world, including what would become the United States.Singapore, a city-state that imports most of its food from other countries, started experimenting with vertical farming to scale up local food production as early as 2009. Having limited land but a large population, Singapore has expanded upward by building high-rise “farm walls,” which allow plants to grow up, rather than across the land. With a population of 23 million, Taiwan should follow Singapore’s example and develop vertical farming because this farming method can address issues such as limited land, water, and agricultural workers. 2 First, the rainwater-driven rotary system in vertical farms makes better use of land and, therefore, may help deal with the farmland issue in Taiwan. Taiwan has lost a lot of agricultural land to industrial and domestic use. This land issue can be addressed by the rotary system, which allows farmers to move racks of plants—one by one—as high as nine meters up in the air to get enough sunlight. Each vertical farm in Singapore has more than 20 racks of rotating plant-growing containers, providing an efficient way to make the most of limited land space. 3 Second, aside from the efficient use of land, the rotary system helps save water, which can prevent a lack of water during water rationing. Despite the fact that Taiwan has a lot more annual rainfall than the world average, much of it quickly flows down steep mountains into the sea, which makes collecting rainwater difficult. In vertical farms, plants are watered by recycled rainwater precisely where they need to be when the racks are rotated down to the micro-sprinklers. Singapore’s urban farming has proved that this sustainable irrigation method allows plants to be grown with only 5% of the water used in traditional agriculture. 4 Third, the operation of vertical farms relies greatly on machines and thus may ease the problem of having a declining number of agricultural workers. Low pay, long hours, and tough working conditions on traditional farms mean most young people would rather choose other careers, which results in an age gap in agriculture with many more older workers than younger ones. Such a negative impact could be reduced by the highly-computerized work on vertical farms. Mostly operated by machines, the work on vertical farms is lighter. As a result, fewer workers are needed on vertical farms. 5 Given these points, vertical farming appears to be the perfect solution for Taiwan, and we are technologically prepared for this new farming method. One biotechnology company in Taiwan has been working with a Danish partner since 2020, and they have successfully run a vertical farm in Copenhagen. If we can build more vertical farms in Taiwan, many agricultural issues can be dealt with, and city citizens may be able to start growing and harvesting food sustainably at the touch of a button.Make a multiple choice quiz for my year 8 science students based on the science in this transcript from a video: 3°C 0:04 It can be the difference between snow and sleet 0:08 Wearing a jacket or not 0:11 In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant 0:15 But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic 0:20 Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 0:25 3°C of warming is really disastrous 0:28 The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there 0:32 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C 0:40 This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with 0:46 Children born today... 0:47 ...are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents 0:52 If global temperatures do rise by 3°C... 0:55 ...what would their world look like? Climate change is already having devastating effects 1:03 Rising sea levels 1:05 Desertification 1:07 Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world 1:11 While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction... 1:14 ...this film will show the scenario we all face... 1:17 ...unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels 1:30 In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear 1:35 The slums of Bangladesh’s capital are filling up with climate migrants 1:41 Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh 1:46 There, like many other parts of the country... 1:49 ...rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers... 1:53 ...are washing away people’s homes 1:56 Many, like her, have lost everything 2:00 Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land 2:03 There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house 2:08 There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home 2:12 We used to eat the fruit from our own trees 2:18 I can’t eat them now because they don't exist anymore 2:21 Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka 2:26 Life was much better back home 2:29 It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable 2:33 We didn’t have the time to save anything at all 2:38 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minara’s life 2:45 It’s one of the reasons why so many migrants like her... 2:47 ...are moving to the city each year... 2:50 ...nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate 2:53 And climate models show there could be much worse to come How climate modelling works 3:02 Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj... 3:04 ...has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios... 3:08 ...for the United Nations 3:10 The models we use to carry out this exercise... 3:13 ...really represent the state of the art... 3:15 ...of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading 3:19 Joeri’s projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world 3:26 Here this is the 3°C level... 3:28 ...and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies... 3:32 ...we would hit 3°C by the end of the century 3:36 This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at 3:40 Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept 3:44 The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept... 3:47 ...and net-zero targets are met 3:50 Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century... 3:54 ...there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead 3:59 One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance... 4:03 ...that the plane will crash Nowhere is safe from global warming 4:07 A rise of 3°C would affect everyone 4:10 Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldn’t be immune to the consequences 4:15 European capitals like Paris and Berlin... 4:18 ...would bake under more extreme heatwaves 4:22 Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate 4:27 In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events 4:33 Cities are hotter than the places around them... 4:36 ...they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding 4:39 And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you can’t in the countryside 4:46 And because of their denser populations... 4:49 ...disasters in a city affect far more people 4:52 Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming 4:56 But they have the means to adapt 4:59 Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places 5:03 They have a lot of amenities 5:05 A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world... 5:08 …wouldn’t necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world 5:12 But a city that hasn’t prepared for these sort of eventualities... 5:16 ...that might be a really nasty place The impact of prolonged droughts 5:20 So far, many developed cities have got off lightly... 5:24 ...but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately 5:29 Smallholders—small-scale farmers—are particularly vulnerable to climate change 5:35 And there are over 600 million around the world 5:38 Smallholders with farms under two hectares... 5:40 ...produce around a third of the global food supply 5:46 Central America’s “Dry Corridor”... 5:48 ...supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms 5:53 Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea... 5:56 ...the area is prone to droughts 6:08 Israel Ramírez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala 6:12 Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe 6:18 This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver 6:23 He depends on his crops of corn and beans 6:26 But they’re getting harder to grow 6:30 The surrounding mountains... 6:32 ...used to provide us with native food... 6:38 ...and now that isn’t an option anymore... 6:41 ...due to climate change and its effects 6:46 Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty 6:52 The impact of all of this for us... 6:59 ...malnutrition among children 7:03 We’ve lost a few 7:07 For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before 7:16 The plant dries up and can’t provide us... 7:19 ...with the necessary food provision 7:24 Severe droughts in Central America... 7:26 ...are now four times more likely than they were last century 7:30 Many families from here have gone to the States 7:37 The economic despair and debts... 7:44 ...have pushed many people from this community to do this journey 7:53 Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 7:59 Not all of this has been due to climate change 8:02 But longer droughts would force even more to move 8:05 In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region... 8:09 ...could drop by up to 14% 8:12 At 3°C, over a quarter of the world’s population... 8:16 ...could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year 8:19 Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding 8:24 But for some, too much water will be the problem 8:29 10% of the world’s population lives on a coastline... 8:32 ...that’s less than 10 metres above sea level 8:35 For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster 8:40 By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels 8:46 Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable... 8:49 ...with up to up to a third of the population displaced 8:54 And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives 9:04 You can see the graveyard there, it’s all under water now... 9:08 ...due to this rising sea level and climate change 9:15 The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea 9:19 Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear 9:24 Relatives’ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water 9:29 We have been asked by the government to relocate... 9:32 ...but no one wants to relocate... 9:34 ...because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea 9:39 This is the place we’ve been brought up in 9:41 ...it’s not easy to leave 9:44 Past attempts to build a seawall haven’t worked 9:48 But Barney sees building a new one as the village’s only hope 9:52 If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left 9:56 But if we don’t have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come... 10:01 ...maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded 10:05 Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods 10:11 And many more countries could suffer 10:14 The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries... 10:17 ...that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world 10:21 To escape, many will move… 10:24 …often, to urban areas Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures 10:27 Half the world’s population already lives in cities... 10:31 ...almost a third in slums 10:36 For them, a 3°C world could be deadly 10:40 Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change 10:44 But life could get even worse for her 10:47 I’m struggling a lot nowadays 10:49 The heat during the day is unbearable 10:52 Even late at night it doesn’t cool down 10:57 The heat is getting more intense every day 10:59 I mean, it’s going to get much worse 11:03 I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? 11:08 Dhaka is getting hotter 11:11 In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature... 11:13 ...has crept up by nearly half a degree 11:17 Days that approach 40°C are now being reported 11:20 And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise 11:26 A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity 11:30 Humans cool themselves by sweating… 11:32 But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%... 11:36 ...sweat doesn’t evaporate well 11:38 So people can’t cool down… 11:41 ...even if given unlimited shade and water 11:45 At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body can’t lose heat... 11:49 ...and so it gets hotter and hotter... 11:51 ...and the body is designed to work at a given temperature 11:53 And if it gets too hot inside, you will die 11:58 The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C... 12:02 ...around skin temperature 12:04 Dhaka will have a much higher chance... 12:05 ...of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures... 12:07 ...if global warming reaches 3°C 12:12 You can’t really adapt to that 12:14 You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you can’t work... 12:20 ...can’t do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year... 12:25 ...then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy 12:33 Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates... 12:37 ...have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures 12:40 More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf... 12:43 ...as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States... 12:47 ...could all get to this threshold by the end of the century 12:50 Climate modelling might show us the weather Increased migration and conflict 12:52 But it doesn’t show us its other effects on society 12:56 Established migration patterns could change 12:59 Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders 13:03 Within countries, more people will move to cities 13:07 In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year... 13:10 ...could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change 13:15 When people are displaced by climate... 13:18 …they may well go to cities... 13:19 ...because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already 13:25 A lot of people who can get to the developed world... 13:28 ...not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go 13:35 As migration around the world increases... 13:38 ...there could be more competition for fewer resources 13:42 Water—already a highly contested resource—will be a focal point 13:47 Turkey’s new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq 13:53 China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan 13:57 The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy 14:03 How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions... 14:08 ...in a 3°C world... 14:09 ...is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out 14:14 I think you’d have to be incredibly sanguine... 14:16 ...not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about... 14:19 ...in a 3°C world wouldn’t lead some places... 14:22 ...to the brink of societal collapse 14:25 Those lucky enough to escape unrest... Adaptation and mitigation are crucial 14:28 ...would still have to adapt to a radically different world 14:32 People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones... 14:37 ...is air conditioning 14:39 But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level... 14:42 ...I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture 14:47 There are physical things you can do, like seawalls 14:52 The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering... 14:57 ...doesn’t mean that it will eliminate suffering 15:00 Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet 15:06 Adaptation will only get the world so far 15:09 The best way to deal with a 3°C world... 15:12 ...is not to go to a 3°C world 15:14 And that’s why increasing efforts on mitigation are important 15:17 It’s why working towards negative emissions... 15:20 ...that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important 15:25 Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble 15:33 The scale of change needed... 15:35 ...and the slow progress of governments so far... 15:38 ...means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done 15:44 Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions... 15:48 ...are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 15:54 The need to act has never been clearer 15:57 There’s still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction... 16:02 ...rather than becoming fact