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Tensions between the East and the West during the Second World War
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Tensions between the superpowers by the late-1960sGrowing Tensions Between the Colonies and Britain The Revolt of the Northern Earls (1569) Most people in the North remained loyal to the Catholic noble families who controlled the north and their Catholic faith. When Elizabeth came to power, she promoted ânew menâ (Protestants) from the gentry and the powerful Catholic nobles lost their power and influence. This led them to organise the most serious rebellion of Elizabethâs reign in 1569. Why did the Northern Earlâs revolt? The Earls had lost their power when Elizabeth became Queen (and wanted it back). They wanted Catholicism restored in England (and felt that ordinary Catholics would support it). Elizabeth was refusing to marry or to name an heir, causing uncertainty about Englandâs future. Mary Queen of Scots (if freed from prison) could replace Elizabeth and solve all these problems Who were the key players in the Revolt? Earl of Northumberland ⢠A Catholic who had held an important position under Mary I. ⢠He lost a lot of influence under Elizabeth (as she favoured Protestant gentry) ⢠Elizabeth also took the rights to a valuable copper mine found on his lands Earl of Westmorland ⢠From a rich Catholic family in the north Also the Duke of Norfolkâs brother in law Duke of Norfolk ⢠Englandâs most senior Protestant noble, but he had very close links to old northern Catholic families, & was sympathetic to them & greedy for power. ⢠He hated William Cecil & Robert Dudley, Earl of Leicester (Elizabethâs favourite) who were Protestant and from the gentry ⢠He planned to marry Mary QS, but later backed down and urged the earls to call off the rebellion. Mary also supported the plan to marry him What role did religion play? (7/10 â but only because it was linked to power) ⢠Most northerners held onto their Catholic beliefs & although Elizabeth didnât persecute them, they knew that she wanted their religion to gradually die out, so they supported the revolt. ⢠In 1561 Elizabeth hired a strict Protestant as archbishop of Durham to promote Protestantism in the north, but he was unpopular & turned many northerners against the Protestant religion. What role did politics/power play? (9/10 â this was the most important cause of the revolt) ⢠The Northern Earls lost a lot of their power/influence (even jobs/money under Elizabeth) ⢠Northumberland was jealous of new Protestant families being given top jobs in the North ⢠William Cecil & Robert Dudley were not from ancient noble families, but were very close to the Queen, so the northern Earls resented them getting top jobs in her Government ⢠Elizabeth also confiscated large areas of land & the profits from their copper mines ⢠It is possible, that had Elizabeth allowed the Catholic Northern Earls to keep their jobs, money and influence at court, they may have âtoleratedâ her as a Protestant Queen (greedy/selfish). What role did Mary Queen of Scots and the Succession play? ⢠Elizabeth was refusing to name an heir and it was becoming clear that she would not marry ⢠If Mary Queen of Scots married the Duke of Norfolk, England would have an heir and England would be Catholic again. The country would be stable without people competing for power. ⢠However, some of Elizabethâs courtiers got worried that it might not work and that it might lead to charges of treason (punishable by death) ⢠So by September 1569, Robert Dudley (Earl of Leicester) decided to tell Elizabeth about the plot. By this time it was much more serious than simply marrying Norfolk to Mary. ⢠Mary QS had secretly asked Spain to send troops to help the rebellion & overthrow Elizabeth Plan for the Revolt of the Northern Earls (1569) ⢠The Earls of Northumberland & Westmorland will raise rebel troops from their lands in the north and take control of Durham. ⢠The rebels will then march south towards London to join with the Duke of Norfolk ⢠1000s of Spanish troops will land in England to support the rebel forces ⢠The Duke of Norfolk & rebel forces will seize control of Government & overthrow Elizabeth ⢠Mary Queen of Scots is to be freed, ready to marry the Duke of Norfolk Key Events of the Revolt ⢠Once Elizabeth knew of the plot, Norfolk was arrested and sent to the Tower of London ⢠The Northern Earls were worried they would be executed for their involvement and in a desperate attempt to avoid punishment, pushed ahead with the revolt ⢠They raised an army of ordinary Catholics and took control of Durham cathedral ⢠Catholic mass was celebrated across the north for 2 weeks. ⢠They then headed south, to try and free Mary ⢠Mary QSs was moved south to Coventry on the orders of Elizabeth, so she couldnât escape ⢠The rebellion failed as Spanish troops never arrived ⢠Elizabethâs friend (Earl of Sussex) had raised an army of 7,000 men to defend her throne. Results: ⢠The rebellion was a serious threat to Elizabeth ⢠She executed 450 rebels in the north ⢠Northumberland was executed in 1572 & his head was put on a spike on the city gate ⢠The Privy Council called for the Duke of Norfolkâs execution too, but Elizabeth released him. ⢠Mary Queen of Scots was kept in prison for the next 14 years. ⢠The failed plot also led the Pope to take action against Elizabeth ⢠In 1570 he excommunicated Elizabeth from the Catholic Church ⢠He also issued a Papal Bull (order) calling on all loyal Catholics to overthrow her hoping it would encourage another rebellion. ⢠In 1571 Elizabeth called parliament to pass an Act making it treason to claim that she was not the rightful Queen and to bring in/print papal bulls in England. The Significance of the Revolt of the Northern Earls ⢠It was the first and most serious rebellion by English Catholics against Elizabeth ⢠Treason laws were made much harsher ⢠It ended the influence of the powerful Catholic Earls in the North ⢠It led to harsher treatment of Catholics, e.g. 1572 Elizabeth sent the Earl of Huntingdon (strict Protestant) to the north to carry out laws against Catholics (and suppress Catholicism). ⢠Although Elizabethâs brutal revenge on the rebels show how serious a threat it was, most Catholics in the north stayed loyal, but the Popeâs Papal Bull now put their loyalty in doubt There was little support for the revolt among the rest of the Catholic nobility and ordinary people. When faced with a choice between Elizabeth and their religion, most Catholics chose to support the Queen. 1569, was the last time English Catholics tried to remove Elizabeth by force. The future plots against her were always uncovered by Cecil & Walsingham, before they had a chance to get any public support. Despite this, the Northern Revolt & Papal Bull changed Elizabethâs attitude towards Catholics who were now seen as potential traitors. From 1570, Elizabeth became less tolerant of recusants (people refusing to attend her church) & took increasingly tough measures against Catholics. The Ridolfi, Throckmorton & Babington plots ⢠In the 1870s-80s, there were 3 Catholic plots to assassinate Elizabeth & replace her with Mary. ⢠The plots were supported by France, Spain, the Pope and some Catholic nobles. ⢠They reinforced the form Mary & from Catholics at home and abroad. Also the threat from Spain. The Ridolfi Plot (1571) ⢠Ridolfi was an Italian banker living in England and a spy for the Pope. ⢠He organised a plot to murder Eliz, marry Mary QS to the Duke of Norfolk & make her Queen. ⢠The Pope & King Philip supported the plot & Philip told the Duke of Alba in the Netherlands to prepare 10,000 troops (but to only invade AFTER the English had overthrown Elizabeth). ⢠The plot failed because Sir William Cecil intercepted coded letters & Norfolk was executed. ⢠Mary was kept under closer watch. ⢠Ridolfi was abroad when the plot was discovered and never returned to England. 1574: Catholic Priests and Priest Holes ⢠From 1574 Catholic priests were smuggled into England to keep the religion alive. ⢠They stayed with rich Catholic families, so Catholic families were kept under surveillance. ⢠Catholic homes were raided â to find âpriest holesâ where Catholic priests were hiding. ⢠Catholic priests who were found could be hung, drawn and quartered (although not all were) ⢠In 1581, Parliament also passed 2 new tougher laws against Catholics: ⢠Recusants would be fined ÂŁ20 (which would bankrupt most families) ⢠Trying to convert people to Catholicism was now treason (punishable by death) The Throckmorton Plot (1583) ⢠It aimed to assassinate Elizabeth and replace her with Mary. The French Duke of Guise (Maryâs cousin) would invade England with an army, funded by King Philip (Pope also supported it). ⢠An Englishman, Throckmorton carried messages between Mary & Catholic plotters abroad. ⢠Sir Walsingham (Secretary of State) uncovered the plot after his agents found the plans for the plot in Throckmortonâs house. Throckmorton confessed under torture and was executed. Significance: ⢠The plots showed that Maryâs presence in England posed a serious threat ⢠It also showed that France & Spain were a serious threat (& could invade) ⢠Throckmortonâs papers showed a list of Catholic supporters in England, so the threat from English Catholics was also real ⢠1,000s of Catholics were imprisoned or kept under surveillance/house arrest ⢠In 1585 another Act was passed to make helping Catholic priests punishable by death. ⢠The Bond of Association was signed by the English nobles & gentry & forced them to promise to execute anyone who tried to overthrow the Queen. Weaknesses of the Plots The plots lacked public support & were uncovered by informers & spies before they had the chance to work King Philip was reluctant to destroy his alliance with Elizabeth (France was still a bigger rival) so is support for the plots was half-hearted, he rarely followed through on his promises to help the plotters or send an army The Babington Plot (1586) In 1586, Walsingham used his spy network to PROVE that Mary supported the Babington plot. His evidence persuaded Elizabeth to put Mary on trial & execute her for treason. ⢠This was a plot to murder Elizabeth and put Mary on the throne ⢠France would invade England with 60,000 men and Spain would also send an army ⢠Babington was passing coded letters between Mary & her supporters in England & Europe. ⢠But all of her letters were being intercepted and read by Walsingham. ⢠Walsingham used his spies to follow every stage of the plot & had the letters decoded ⢠One of Maryâs letters approved plans to murder the Queen and free Mary from prison ⢠They also contained the names of 6 Catholics who planned to kill Elizabeth ⢠They were arrested, hung, drawn and quartered for treason. ⢠Mary had been implicated in plots before, but Elizabeth was always reluctant to execute her ⢠But the proof found by Walsingham finally persuaded her to put Mary on trial ⢠In October 1586, Mary was found guilty & was sentenced to death ⢠But Elizabeth still hesitated, and did not sign the death warrant until February 1587. Significance 1) This plot was very significant because by 1585 England was effectively at war with Spain since Elizabeth had sent her army to help the Dutch Protestants fight the Spanish 2) This meant that Elizabethâ situation was more dangerous than during previous plots. 3) Elizabethâs government also became more determined to crush Catholicism 4) 1000s of recusants were arrested & 31 priests were executed 5) Maryâs execution removed the Catholic threat at home 6) English Catholics had no one to rally around, & lost hope of overthrowing Elizabeth 7) But Maryâs death increased the threat of a foreign invasion as England was at war with Spain and King Philip had been preparing an attack on England since 1585 8) Maryâs death made Philip even more determined to invade, Mary had left her claim to the English throne to King Philip upon her death Why was Mary Queen of Scots finally executed? 1 ⢠A new Act in 1585 stated that in the event of Elizabethâs assassination, Mary could be executed as long as she had been proved guilty & Walsingham had provided hard proof. 2 ⢠Another reason was that by 1587, it was clear that Philip was planning to invade England ⢠There were rumours that Spanish ships had landed in Wales & that Mary had escaped. This convinced Elizabeth that Mary had to be executed if she wanted to keep her throne. Walsinghamâs Spy Network: ⢠Walsingham (Secretary of State from 1573) had a network of spies all over England & abroad. He had spies in every English town, some were normal people paid to spy on neighbours. ⢠He also had agents and spies in Spain, France, Germany and Italy ⢠He hired mathematicians to crack written codes and people to open/seal letters secretly ⢠He also pressured captured Catholic priests to spy on others for him in return for a pardon. ⢠He used double agents to infiltrate Catholic networks - to help him discover traitors ⢠But he only used torture against Catholic priests caught in England in the most serious cases ⢠But 130 priests and 60 of their supporters were still executed during Elizabethâs reign. Why did Relations with Spain get worse (1569-1588) ⢠England had tried to stay on good terms with Spain, because Eliz wanted to avoid an expensive war that could lead to her being overthrown (English Catholics could support it) ⢠But by the 1570s, Elizabeth wanted to have an empire of her own. ⢠She also needed to make more money to defend her country and throne (by improving trade) ⢠This religious, political and economic rivalry led to growing tensions between England & Spain Political and Religious Rivalry 1) Land abroad, gave countries wealth/power. By the 1580s, Eliz wanted an empire to rival Spainâs (especially as Spain had supported the Catholic plots against Eliz â even if it was half-hearted) 2) Religion was another cause of conflict. Philip opposed Elizabethâs religious settlement 1559 3) Luckily for Elizabeth, in the 1550s Spain & France were competing to be the greatest European power and both wanted England as an ally against the other. 4) But from 1567, Spanish ships were sailing to the Netherlands with money for the Albaâs army 5) This alarmed English Protestants and Elizabethâs Privy Council who put more and more pressure on her to send an army to help the Dutch Protestant rebels (in the Netherlands). Economic (commercial) Rivalry: The New World, privateers and Sir Francis Drake ⢠Under Elizabeth, English merchants wanted to make big profits in the New World (Americas). ⢠However, trading in the New World was difficult because of Spainâs power 1) Spain controlled most of the New World where there were huge profits to be made and anyone who wanted to trade there needed a licence from Spain (which it would not give): 2) But the Americas had valuable crops like tobacco, sugar, and also silver and gold 3) Elizabeth secretly encouraged privateers to trade illegally & raid Spanish ports & ships 4) At first Elizabeth denied responsibility for their actions, which delaye war with Spain Sir Francis Drake: Elizabeth sends Drake to rob Spanish colonies and ships (which infuriates Spain) 1) Spainâs support for the Ridolfi plot (1571) made her more willing to support Drake ⢠In 1572 Eliz hired Drake to sail to the New World & steal ÂŁ40,000 of Spanish silver ⢠In 1577 she sent Drake back again with a secret mission to rob Spainâs colonies/ships ⢠Drake brought back ÂŁ400,000 of Spanish treasure & claimed an area of California in Elizabethâs name (New Albion). He gave a lot of this money to Elizabeth ⢠He boosted Englandâs finances at a time of growing concern over Spainâs threat ⢠He became famous as the first Englishman to circumnavigate the globe. ⢠Eliz knighted Drake as a reward, which infuriated Philip (as he saw Drake as a pirate) ⢠Drakeâs actions & his claim to California made it clear that England did not accept Spainâs domination of the New World. Elizabethâs Support for the Dutch Rebels led to War with Spain (1585-88) ⢠By the 1580s, tension between England & Spain had reached boiling point ⢠At first, Eliz refused to send her army to help the Dutch rebels, because she wanted to avoid a war with Spain. So she tried to get the Spanish to leave the Netherlands in other INDIRECT ways: 1) By allowing Drake (& other English privateers) to attack and rob Spanish ships and colonies 2) By encouraging others (the French heir/mercenaries) to fight the Spanish in the Netherlands ⢠In the 1570s, Elizabeth promised to marry the heir to the French throne (the Duke of Alencon) so that he would take an army to fight the Spanish in the Netherlands The Spanish Fury (1576) and the Pacification of Ghent (1576) ⢠By 1576, the Spanish Govt in the Netherlands was bankrupt (the war was expensive) ⢠After months without pay, Spainâs soldiers violently robbed Dutch towns in the âSpanish Furyâ Spanish troops rebelling and robbing cities in the Netherlands in 1576. This united the Dutch Protestants & Catholics against Spain. They drew up the âPacification of Ghentâ (demanding that): ⢠Spanish troops leave the Netherlands ⢠Spain allows the Dutch to rule themselves ⢠The persecution of Dutch Protestants stops What did Elizabeth do? ⢠Elizabeth sent ÂŁ100,000 to help the Dutch rebels ⢠In 1577 King Philipâs brother, Don Juan agreed to the rebels demands (but this was a trick) as just 6 months later Philip sent an even bigger army to attack the Dutch. ⢠Elizabeth then hired a mercenary army of 6000 English & Scottish volunteers to help the Dutch. ⢠But her plan backfired because the mercenaries destroyed Dutch Catholic churches, which caused the Catholics to make peace with Spain. ⢠In 1578, her Privy Council urged Eliz to send her official army to help the Dutch, but she refused. The Dutch were disappointed & turned to France for help. The French Duke of Alencon arrived with an army to fight the Spanish, but by 1579 Spain had taken control again. ⢠In 1580 Spain got even stronger after Philip won control of Portugal & its empire. ⢠So Elizabeth gave the Duke of Alencon ÂŁ70,000 to help him fight the Spanish ⢠In 1582, Alencon took his army the Netherlands but failed to defeat Spain. ⢠Elizabethâs foreign policy in the Netherlands had failed & she had only managed to annoy Spain 1585: Why did Eliz finally decide to send her army to the Netherlands? (she lost her 2 main allies) ⢠1584 the Duke of Alencon died (so he could no longer fight the Spanish in the Netherlands) ⢠1 month later, William of Orange, the leader of the Dutch Protestant rebels was assassinated. ⢠In 1585, Spain signed the Treaty of Joinville with France, agreeing to stamp out Protestantism in France/Europe meaning France & Spain were now allies against Protestantism ⢠Elizabeth now felt she had no choice but to send her official army to the Netherlands ⢠She signed the Treaty of Nonsuch with the Dutch rebels which promised them military help 1585: Robert Dudleyâs campaign in the Netherlands was unsuccessful She sent 7,400 man army to the Netherlands led by Dudley. But he accepted the title of âGovernor Generalâ. Eliz was angry as it suggested that she had deposed King Philip so she told Dudley to resign this position. His army was defeated by the bigger Spanish Army as Eliz had not provided him with enough money to win. In 1587 Dudley resigned and returned to England. At the same time, Eliz had sent Drake to raid Spanish colonies in the New World to disrupt King Philipâs flow of money. Philip was furious and told the Pope he planned to invade England at the end of 1585. Drake singes the King of Spainâs beard 1587 ⢠In 1587 Elizabeth ordered Drake to attack Spainâs most important port Cadiz ⢠He destroyed 30 ships in 3 days â known as the âSingeing of the King of Spainâs Beardâ ⢠He also stole lots of wood, meaning the Armada did not have quality barrels for food/water ⢠Drakeâs disruption delayed the Armada by a year (& meant that its food rotted in 1588). ⢠This bought England more time to prepare for war. The Spanish Armada (1588) The Plan ⢠By 1588, the Spanish Armada was ready to invade England ⢠It had 130 ships with 8000 sailors & 18,000 soldiers ⢠The Duke of Medina Sidonia would lead the Armada, but he had little experience at sea and didnât want the job ⢠The Armada would collect Parmaâs army from France & sail to England under the protection of the Armadaâs warships ⢠Parma would march to London to depose Elizabeth & impose a Catholic government in England. 1) The Armada reached the English Channel The Armada set out in May 1588, but was delayed for a few weeks by bad weather In July the Armada was near England & signal fires were lit to warn Elizabeth English ships set sail to meet the Armada The Armada sailed up the channel in a crescent (half moon) formation, to use the large armed galleons to protect the weaker supply and army ships The English navy carried out a few minor raids, but did not inflict much damage Only 2 Spanish ships were lost (by accident) 2) The English attack the Spanish at Calais (with fire ships) and at Gravelines The Armada sailed up the English channel & anchored at Calais to wait for Parmaâs army But Parmaâs men didn't reach the coast in time (news had reached them too late) At midnight, the English sent 8 fireships into the Spanish ships causing panic They cut their anchors, broke formation & headed for the open sea (without Parma) The Spanish ships sailed to Gravelines, but bad weather stopped them returning to Calais The English attacked and the battle lasted many hours (5 Spanish ships were sunk) The rest were forced to sail away from France towards Scotland The English ships followed them to make sure they didnât come back to collect Parmaâs army 3) The Armadaâs Journey back to Spain around Ireland was a disaster The Spanish called off the attack and returned to Spain around Scotland & Ireland Bad storms sank many ships and wrecked more on the Irish coast Many sailors died from starvation & disease â less than half the men made it back to Spain How did England defeat the Spanish Armada? !) Faster Ships ⢠Years before the battle, England had started building smaller, faster ships (galleons) that could fire canon balls quicker & further than Spanish ships ⢠Spanish ships were huge and slow to change direction. 2) Bad Planning & Communication (Spanish) ⢠Philipâs plan to join with the Duke of Parmaâs army in France was risky. ⢠Parma had lots of small ships which took 48 hours to load, man and set sail. ⢠It took too long (a week) for word to reach Parma that Medina was in the English Channel, by which time Medina had set sail to Calais. ⢠Parma was not ready to set sail & the English were already ready to attack (leaving Medina with very little back up when anchored in France). 2) English Tactics were more effective ⢠Spanish ships aimed to come alongside the English ones, jump on board & fight the enemy. But the English ships were faster & kept a safe distance. ⢠They chased the Armada down the Channel, with heavy cannon fire, which forced the Spanish to arrive in France before Parmaâs army was ready ⢠As the Armada was waiting, the English sent fireships into the Spanish fleet. ⢠This caused the Armada to panic, cut their anchors & sail away to the north ⢠When the Spanish ships regrouped, the English attacked them in the Battle of Gravelines & the Armada was forced to sail north, chased by faster ships. 5) Bad Weather ⢠Strong winds made it impossible for the Armada to return & pick up Parmaâs army and storms wrecked or sunk Spanish ships as they tried to return home along the Scottish-Irish coasts. 2) Spanish Supplies ⢠The Armada was not well supplied with food/weapons. Drakeâs attack on Cadiz port in 1587 had destroyed food barrels. Delays in setting sail meant that by the time the English attacked the Armada it had been at sea for 10 weeks and had rotting food. 1000s died from starvation/disease. The consequences of the English victory? ⢠Victory over the Spanish Armada gave Elizabeth a great propaganda victory ⢠A new portrait was made, and a medal was made to commemorate her victory, it said âGod blew and they were scatteredâ. ⢠Elizabeth claimed that God was on the side of Protestantism ⢠This led to a feeling of English pride and encouraged the Dutch rebels to renew their fight against the Spanish ⢠The defeat of the Armada showed the strength of the English navy and gave England the confidence to trade and explore more widely at sea ⢠Although Philip did not give up and continued the war for the rest of Elizabethâs reign, the defeat had cost Spain dearly, both financially and in terms of its power ⢠The Armada marked the start of a long decline in Spainâs power and fortunes. ⢠English ships were sent on voyages of discovery and set up valuable new trade routes ⢠By the end of Elizabethâs reign, the navy was also trying to set up a new colony in Virginia ⢠The English victory boosted Elizabethâs popularity & strengthened the Protestant causeMake a multiple choice quiz for my year 8 science students based on the science in this transcript from a video: 3°C 0:04 It can be the difference between snow and sleet 0:08 Wearing a jacket or not 0:11 In your day-to-day life, it may not seem significant 0:15 But 3°C of global warming would be catastrophic 0:20 Heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, even fire 0:25 3°C of warming is really disastrous 0:28 The scary thing is, the world is well on its way there 0:32 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C 0:40 This is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with 0:46 Children born today... 0:47 ...are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents 0:52 If global temperatures do rise by 3°C... 0:55 ...what would their world look like? Climate change is already having devastating effects 1:03 Rising sea levels 1:05 Desertification 1:07 Hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world 1:11 While blockbusters like this are clearly fiction... 1:14 ...this film will show the scenario we all face... 1:17 ...unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels 1:30 In some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear 1:35 The slums of Bangladeshâs capital are filling up with climate migrants 1:41 Minara comes from Bhola District, an area in southern Bangladesh 1:46 There, like many other parts of the country... 1:49 ...rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers... 1:53 ...are washing away peopleâs homes 1:56 Many, like her, have lost everything 2:00 Our home in Bhola had endless amounts of land 2:03 There was lots of space for farming, we had a spacious house 2:08 There were different types of fruits, vegetation and trees growing at home 2:12 We used to eat the fruit from our own trees 2:18 I canât eat them now because they don't exist anymore 2:21 Since the river flooded for the third time, I had to flee to Dhaka 2:26 Life was much better back home 2:29 It was unbearable to live through, truly intolerable 2:33 We didnât have the time to save anything at all 2:38 1.1°C to 1.3°C of global warming has already transformed Minaraâs life 2:45 Itâs one of the reasons why so many migrants like her... 2:47 ...are moving to the city each year... 2:50 ...nearly 400,000 according to the last estimate 2:53 And climate models show there could be much worse to come How climate modelling works 3:02 Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj... 3:04 ...has spent the last ten years modelling future climate scenarios... 3:08 ...for the United Nations 3:10 The models we use to carry out this exercise... 3:13 ...really represent the state of the art... 3:15 ...of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading 3:19 Joeriâs projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world 3:26 Here this is the 3°C level... 3:28 ...and so there is at least a one-in-four chance that under current policies... 3:32 ...we would hit 3°C by the end of the century 3:36 This is just one of the scenarios Joeri looks at 3:40 Another one imagines that all policy promises are kept 3:44 The most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept... 3:47 ...and net-zero targets are met 3:50 Where our best estimate ends up around 2°C at the end of the century... 3:54 ...there is still a one-in-20 chance that we end up with 3°C instead 3:59 One would not be entering a plane if there is a one-in-20 chance... 4:03 ...that the plane will crash Nowhere is safe from global warming 4:07 A rise of 3°C would affect everyone 4:10 Even wealthy cities in rich countries wouldnât be immune to the consequences 4:15 European capitals like Paris and Berlin... 4:18 ...would bake under more extreme heatwaves 4:22 Frequent storm-surges in New York could turn parts of the city desolate 4:27 In many ways, cities magnify, intensify climate events 4:33 Cities are hotter than the places around them... 4:36 ...they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding 4:39 And you can get a really bad event in a city in a way that you canât in the countryside 4:46 And because of their denser populations... 4:49 ...disasters in a city affect far more people 4:52 Some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming 4:56 But they have the means to adapt 4:59 Cities tend to be wealthier than surrounding places 5:03 They have a lot of amenities 5:05 A city that has taken seriously the risks of a 3°C world... 5:08 âŚwouldnât necessarily be a worse place to be in a 3°C world 5:12 But a city that hasnât prepared for these sort of eventualities... 5:16 ...that might be a really nasty place The impact of prolonged droughts 5:20 So far, many developed cities have got off lightly... 5:24 ...but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately 5:29 Smallholdersâsmall-scale farmersâare particularly vulnerable to climate change 5:35 And there are over 600 million around the world 5:38 Smallholders with farms under two hectares... 5:40 ...produce around a third of the global food supply 5:46 Central Americaâs âDry Corridorâ... 5:48 ...supports a mix of smallholdings and medium-sized farms 5:53 Sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea... 5:56 ...the area is prone to droughts 6:08 Israel RamĂrez Rivera is a smallholder in Guatemala 6:12 Here, climate change is making the dry seasons longer, and more severe 6:18 This is the biggest ear of maize that this plot could deliver 6:23 He depends on his crops of corn and beans 6:26 But theyâre getting harder to grow 6:30 The surrounding mountains... 6:32 ...used to provide us with native food... 6:38 ...and now that isnât an option anymore... 6:41 ...due to climate change and its effects 6:46 Nearly two-thirds of the smallholders in the Dry Corridor now live in poverty 6:52 The impact of all of this for us... 6:59 ...malnutrition among children 7:03 Weâve lost a few 7:07 For my crops especially, the midsummer heat is harder than before 7:16 The plant dries up and canât provide us... 7:19 ...with the necessary food provision 7:24 Severe droughts in Central America... 7:26 ...are now four times more likely than they were last century 7:30 Many families from here have gone to the States 7:37 The economic despair and debts... 7:44 ...have pushed many people from this community to do this journey 7:53 Migration from Guatemala to the United States has quadrupled since 1990 7:59 Not all of this has been due to climate change 8:02 But longer droughts would force even more to move 8:05 In a 3°C world, annual rainfall in this region... 8:09 ...could drop by up to 14% 8:12 At 3°C, over a quarter of the worldâs population... 8:16 ...could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year 8:19 Northern Africa could see droughts that last for years at a time Rising sea levels, storm surges and flooding 8:24 But for some, too much water will be the problem 8:29 10% of the worldâs population lives on a coastline... 8:32 ...thatâs less than 10 metres above sea level 8:35 For these coastal inhabitants, a 3°C world would spell disaster 8:40 By 2100, global sea levels could have climbed by half a metre from 2005 levels 8:46 Low-lying cities like Lagos would be especially vulnerable... 8:49 ...with up to up to a third of the population displaced 8:54 And in Fiji, rising waters are already upending lives 9:04 You can see the graveyard there, itâs all under water now... 9:08 ...due to this rising sea level and climate change 9:15 The village of Togoru in Fiji is being swallowed by the sea 9:19 Barney Dunn, the village headman, has seen over half the village disappear 9:24 Relativesâ houses have been abandoned, and family graves are now under water 9:29 We have been asked by the government to relocate... 9:32 ...but no one wants to relocate... 9:34 ...because we have our great-great-grandparents down there in the sea 9:39 This is the place weâve been brought up in 9:41 ...itâs not easy to leave 9:44 Past attempts to build a seawall havenât worked 9:48 But Barney sees building a new one as the villageâs only hope 9:52 If they do that, maybe we can save whatever is left 9:56 But if we donât have the seawall, then it will be keep eroding and time will come... 10:01 ...maybe in ten,15 years, Togoru will be all eroded 10:05 Rising seas also mean storms cause more floods 10:11 And many more countries could suffer 10:14 The Philippines and Myanmar are just two countries... 10:17 ...that will also see an increase in storm surges in a 3°C world 10:21 To escape, many will move⌠10:24 âŚoften, to urban areas Extreme heat and wet-bulb temperatures 10:27 Half the worldâs population already lives in cities... 10:31 ...almost a third in slums 10:36 For them, a 3°C world could be deadly 10:40 Minara has moved to Dhaka to escape the impact of climate change 10:44 But life could get even worse for her 10:47 Iâm struggling a lot nowadays 10:49 The heat during the day is unbearable 10:52 Even late at night it doesnât cool down 10:57 The heat is getting more intense every day 10:59 I mean, itâs going to get much worse 11:03 I can barely survive it now, how will I live through it in the future? 11:08 Dhaka is getting hotter 11:11 In the last 20 years the average daytime temperature... 11:13 ...has crept up by nearly half a degree 11:17 Days that approach 40°C are now being reported 11:20 And high so-called wet-bulb temperatures are on the rise 11:26 A wet-bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity 11:30 Humans cool themselves by sweating⌠11:32 But in these conditions, when relative humidity is near 100%... 11:36 ...sweat doesnât evaporate well 11:38 So people canât cool down⌠11:41 ...even if given unlimited shade and water 11:45 At a high wet-bulb temperature, the body canât lose heat... 11:49 ...and so it gets hotter and hotter... 11:51 ...and the body is designed to work at a given temperature 11:53 And if it gets too hot inside, you will die 11:58 The human limit for wet-bulb temperatures is 35°C... 12:02 ...around skin temperature 12:04 Dhaka will have a much higher chance... 12:05 ...of reaching dangerous wet-bulb temperatures... 12:07 ...if global warming reaches 3°C 12:12 You canât really adapt to that 12:14 You have to get out. If the temperature is so high that you canât work... 12:20 ...canât do hard manual labour outside for significant parts of the year... 12:25 ...then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy 12:33 Jacobabad in Pakistan, and Ras al Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates... 12:37 ...have already recorded deadly wet-bulb temperatures 12:40 More of the tropics and the Persian Gulf... 12:43 ...as well as parts of Mexico and the south-eastern United States... 12:47 ...could all get to this threshold by the end of the century 12:50 Climate modelling might show us the weather Increased migration and conflict 12:52 But it doesnât show us its other effects on society 12:56 Established migration patterns could change 12:59 Climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders 13:03 Within countries, more people will move to cities 13:07 In a 3°C world, tens of millions of people a year... 13:10 ...could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change 13:15 When people are displaced by climate... 13:18 âŚthey may well go to cities... 13:19 ...because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already 13:25 A lot of people who can get to the developed world... 13:28 ...not least because the developed world tends to be less hot, will give that a go 13:35 As migration around the world increases... 13:38 ...there could be more competition for fewer resources 13:42 Waterâalready a highly contested resourceâwill be a focal point 13:47 Turkeyâs new Ilisu dam has reduced the flow of water into Iraq 13:53 China lays claim to rivers vital to India and Pakistan 13:57 The prospect of a water-conflict makes people very uneasy 14:03 How national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions... 14:08 ...in a 3°C world... 14:09 ...is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out 14:14 I think youâd have to be incredibly sanguine... 14:16 ...not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about... 14:19 ...in a 3°C world wouldnât lead some places... 14:22 ...to the brink of societal collapse 14:25 Those lucky enough to escape unrest... Adaptation and mitigation are crucial 14:28 ...would still have to adapt to a radically different world 14:32 People can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways, one of the most obvious ones... 14:37 ...is air conditioning 14:39 But other ways to adapt at a local or regional level... 14:42 ...I mean, one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture 14:47 There are physical things you can do, like seawalls 14:52 The fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering... 14:57 ...doesnât mean that it will eliminate suffering 15:00 Suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet 15:06 Adaptation will only get the world so far 15:09 The best way to deal with a 3°C world... 15:12 ...is not to go to a 3°C world 15:14 And thatâs why increasing efforts on mitigation are important 15:17 Itâs why working towards negative emissions... 15:20 ...that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important 15:25 Once you get to a 3°C world, you are in real bad global trouble 15:33 The scale of change needed... 15:35 ...and the slow progress of governments so far... 15:38 ...means 3°C of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done 15:44 Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions... 15:48 ...are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030 15:54 The need to act has never been clearer 15:57 Thereâs still time to reduce emissions, so that a 3°C world remains fiction... 16:02 ...rather than becoming factCauses of tension between the USA and USSR by 1945Early causes of tension between the USA and the USSRCohesion and Adhesion Water molecules stick to each other as a result of hydrogen bond- ing. An attractive force that holds molecules of a single substance together is known as cohesion. Cohesion due to hydrogen bonding between water molecules contributes to the upward movement of water from plant roots to their leaves. Related to cohesion is the surface tension of water. The cohe- sive forces in water resulting from hydrogen bonds cause the mol- ecules at the surface of water to be pulled downward into the liquid. As a result, water acts as if it has a thin âskinâ on its sur- face. You can observe waterâs surface tension by slightly overfill- ing a drinking glass with water. The water will appear to bulge above the rim of the glass. Surface tension also enables small crea- tures such as spiders and water-striders to run on water without breaking the surface. Adhesion is the attractive force between two particles of differ- ent substances, such as water molecules and glass molecules. A related property is capillarity (KAP-uh-LER-i-tee), which is the attrac- tion between molecules that results in the rise of the surface of a liquid when in contact with a solid. Together, the forces of adhe- sion, cohesion, and capillarity help water rise through narrow tubes against the force of gravity. Figure 2-11 shows cohesion and adhesion in the water-conducting tubes in the stem of a flower. Temperature Moderation Water has a high heat capacity, which means that water can absorb or release relatively large amounts of energy in the form of heat with only a slight change in temperature. This property of water is related to hydrogen bonding. Energy must be absorbed to break hydrogen bonds, and energy is released as heat when hydrogen bonds form. The energy that water initially absorbs breaks hydro- gen bonds between molecules. Only after these hydrogen bonds are broken does the energy begin to increase the motion of the water molecules, which raises the temperature of the water. When the temperature of water drops, hydrogen bonds reform, which releases a large amount of energy in the form of heat. Therefore, during a hot summer day, water can absorb a large quantity of energy from the sun and can cool the air without a large increase in the waterâs temperature. At night, the gradually cooling water warms the air. In this way, the Earthâs oceans stabilize global temperatures enough to allow life to exist. Waterâs high heat capac- ity also allows organisms to keep cells at an even temperature despite temperature changes in the environment. As a liquid evaporates, the surface of the liquid that remains behind cools down. A relatively large amount of energy is absorbed by water during evaporation, which significantly cools the surface of the remaining liquid. Evaporative cooling prevents organisms that live on land from overheating. For example, the evaporation of sweat from a personâs skin releases body heat and prevents over- heating on a hot day or during strenuous activity. Adhesion Cohesion Hydrogen bonds Cohesion, adhesion, and capillarity contribute to the upward movement of water from the roots of plants. FIGURE 2â11 www.scilinks.org Topic: Hydrogen Bonding Keyword: HM60777 mb06se_cols03.qxd 5/18/07 10:47 AM Page 41 42 CHAPTER 2 Density of Ice Unlike most solids, which are denser than their liquids, solid water is less dense than liquid water. This property is due to the shape of the water molecule and hydrogen bonding. The angle between the hydrogen atoms is quite wide. So, when water forms solid ice, the angles in the molecules cause ice crystals to have large amounts of open space, as shown in Figure 2-12. This open space lattice structure causes ice to have a low density. Because ice floats on water, bodies of water such as ponds and lakes freeze from the top down and not the bottom up. Ice insulates the water below from the cold air, which allows fish and other aquatic crea- tures to survive under the icy surface.What is an earthquake? Would you be surprised to learn that several million earthquakes happen every year? Seriously. Most are so small in magnitude or size that we cannot even feel them. In fact, only 20 earthquakes are efficiently reported each year in the United States Geological Survey. Wow! That is a huge difference! The Earth has four major layers. Inner core, outer core, mantle, and crust. Think of the crust and top of the mantle like the skin of the earth. This skin is made up of different pieces of rock called tectonic plates. There are about 15 major slabs that join together, kind of like a puzzle. The edges around the tectonic plates are called plate boundaries. These massive pieces of rock slide back and forth under the Earth's surface, bumping up against each other and creating a lot of tension. This tension and movement create faults, which are basically huge cracks in the rock. When the faults get stuck, they build up pressure. And when they get unstuck, you guessed it, an earthquake. So basically, an earthquake is caused by the shifting and sliding of tectonic plates on the Earth's upper mantle and crust. There are three ways that tectonic plates shift or slide. They are subduction, lateral sliding, and spreading. Subduction happens when plates crash into each other. This can cause one plate to slide under another and be destroyed. Or the edges of the plate may rise up and form mountains. Lateral sliding means that the plates slide alongside each other, which can create lots of friction. And like you might have guessed, spreading happens when plates move apart from each other. When they do, melted rock between the plates rises and cools, forming new crust. Here's an interesting fact. Nearly 90% of all earthquakes begin in the Pacific Ocean, in an area called the Ring of Fire. It's called the Ring of Fire because along with earthquakes, it's filled with many active volcanoes. More than 450! Earthquakes can be powerful enough to change the surface of the earth and can do a lot of damage. And sometimes earthquakes can even cause other natural disasters, like avalanches, landslides, and tsunamis. Pretty wild, right? The epicenter is the location of an earthquake on the Earth's surface. The closer you are to the epicenter, the more of the earthquake you will feel. Earthquakes lose intensity as they travel away from the epicenter. Scientists measure the intensity of an earthquake using a special device called a seismograph. Seismometers detect and measure the vibrations given off by an earthquake. Magnitude is the number given to record the size of an earthquake. For example, a magnitude 5.5 is considered moderate. Above 8.0 is considered a major earthquake and we see one every year or two. Earthquakes measured at 2.5 or less are usually not felt, but can be recorded. And believe it or not, there are millions that happen each year. You can make a model of a seismograph at home, and we are going to show you how. It's activity time! You can print off directions for this one on our website at learnbright.org. You'll need a cardboard box, string, a plastic cup, a marker, small heavy objects, a long strip of paper, and a friend because this is an activity for at least two people. Now comes the fun part. One friend shakes the box, alternating between hard and soft and slow and fast, while the other friend is pulling the strip of paper through the bottom. Watch the marker as it records the movement. This is exactly what a seismograph does during an earthquake. So, in a way, we have not only created our own seismograph, but our own earthquake as well. Now, we can analyze the data just like scientists. Can you tell how hard the box was shaking based on the line? Can you tell when it was barely shaking at all? You are on your way to becoming a seismologist. A seismologist is a person that studies earthquakes. It's pretty cool to watch the process, but it's even more exciting to do it yourself. You can head on over to our website to get detailed instructions for this activity. Just download the lesson plan and as always have fun! Hope you had fun learning with us! Visit us at learnbright.org for thousands of Hope you had fun learning with us! Visit us at learnbright.org for thousands of free resources and turnkey solutions for teachers and homeschoolers.